The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:00)
I think I would still take Michigan ahead of Duke as number one.

And I still think those two are a tier above

Nerdlander (00:07)
I just don't think there's that dominant team. I think you can throw maybe seven teams in a hat and say like,

think it's matchup dependent.

I would not put Arizona behind.

Duke in Michigan. I wouldn't put them a tier below.

Evan (00:20)
Sure, sure,

Evan (00:00)
Hey everybody, welcome to the Evan Mia College basketball show. I'm your host Evan Mia Kawa and we just witnessed arguably the greatest weekend of college basketball that you will see this regular season until we get to March Madness. The big ticket item was those two top four clashes that we saw on Saturday. Duke beats number one Michigan and Washington DC in a very defensive battle.

That was a great game. then Arizona goes into Houston without co-opete and battling through some adversity and beats Houston on their home floor. UCLA had an overtime thriller against ⁓ Illinois. Buzzer beating layup to win the game. That was awesome. Kansas was stunned at home by Cincinnati and so much more to get to. Super packed show today. Jeff Goodman is on deck here with me in a second to talk about the weekend. And later on in the show, Will Warren will be joining us to talk about some more games.

and pick our final four teams as of this moment. Also in this week's analytics corner, we're gonna talk about updated injury impact for teams that are missing some star players. There's been a lot of that going around in the sport right now. Plus some takeaways from the latest efficiency landscape graph that I just put out on social media. If you're a listener of this show, thank you so much. It means a lot. Please leave us a review on Apple or Spotify, or if you watch on YouTube, hit the subscribe button.

It really helps grow the show as we ramp up towards March. I've got a lot of fun things planned for that

Evan (01:28)
All right, it is time to get into the big storylines of the week. And here with me to do that is the one and only Jeff Goodman from Field of 68. And he has specifically requested me to mention how I have slided him by having him appear after all of these other people on the show before him. So that would be John Fanta, Jeff Borzello, Kevin Sweeney, Matt Norlander, Fran Fraschilla, Rob Doster, Ryan Hammer, T.O. was on last week. So you're really bottom of the barrel here.

Nerdlander (01:55)
This is amazing. I mean, this is amazing and I'm doing this for free. Like not only am I like the last guy that you reached out to possibly, mean, like honestly, I don't even know who else can go. I mean, I feel like I can't believe Lennarty. I mean, Lennarty must've said no. All right, there you go. So you already got him booked. I mean, I was like a last minute, I'm sure somebody bailed.

Evan (02:17)
He's going to be on the show in two weeks.

Nerdlander (02:24)
and you needed somebody, so you called me like 10 minutes ago and I'm honored, I'm honored.

Evan (02:29)
That is

absolutely not what happened. I saved you for when people are gonna be paying the most attention to this show. So that's the logic here.

Nerdlander (02:36)
Good excuse. Good excuse. I'll take it

though. I'll take it. No, no, no. It's good to see you doing this. I'm glad that you've added this to your stable of information. You're about as good as it gets out there. You and I did the mock ⁓ bracket, media bracket the other day in Indy. And I learned a lot. It was a little bit overload in numbers. I will say that for me. But for you, it was just a normal day.

Evan (02:59)
for sure.

Yeah, we saw each other a lot more this week than we normally do and we're capping it off here so you're probably gonna be sick of me after this is over. Let's talk for a little bit before we're sick of each other. I wanna start with the big title, the top four clashes that we had in college basketball. I think Duke and Michigan get us where I wanna start here. Scoring off in Washington, D.C. on Saturday evening. Duke wins this game 68 to 63.

Nerdlander (03:10)
Never.

Evan (03:29)
This was a very proper defensive battle. think it started out pretty on fire out of the Gates Bowl teams, but it turned out that the top two defenses in the land really showed up for this one. I think for me, the battle of the stars was really significant. Cameron Boozer versus Yaxle Lendeborg. Boozer was great. 18 points, 10 rebounds. Yaxle also had a great game, especially in the first half, 21 points, a bunch of threes. I think both front courts really delivered in this game as expected, but I thought Duke's back court

was a really big ⁓ edge in this game considering that it was an unknown who was gonna show up better there and Duke kind of led for the entire second half. this game was awesome. What were your biggest takeaways from Duke's win over the number one team in the country on Saturday?

Nerdlander (04:13)
I mean, obviously the biggest one was, you know what? We kind of had Duke as a second tier team. And I picked him to win the whole thing in the preseason. And even I was like, ⁓ what am I doing here? The more you watch him, the more you're like, ⁓ other than Boozer, not blowing away, Isaiah Evans has been inconsistent, hasn't been the guy that I thought he'd be. You know, the point guard position still hasn't really been solidified as a strength. Gamba has been great. Like, and he was really good in that game. And I thought...

know, a key, like you said, Duke's perimeter was good, but I thought a key was, you know, standing up to Michigan's big on the glass. That was huge. Cause those bigs, mean, they got three of them. know Mara got in foul trouble, but we know what Boozer can do. But I think Patrick Gamba is so underrated in what he does. you know, like to me, he's so good defensively, big, strong, plays hard, kind of protects.

Boozer, said it a couple of weeks ago. said, he's kind of like that, that hockey enforcer that protects the top player. And I think he allows Boozer again, defensively to not take plays off, but not have to work quite as hard in there. But I think again, the biggest thing, it made a statement for Duke on a neutral court, which probably wasn't quite neutral. My guess is it was like 75-25 in favor of Duke in DC. But the fact that they could beat this team that

⁓ A lot of people had put on a pedestal above everybody else, especially when we saw him ⁓ at Mackie against Purdue. I thought that was really impressive. And again, surprised but not surprised.

Evan (05:53)
I agree with your point on Patrick Ngongba. You made fun of me for this last year. think Patrick Ngongba is this year's Dylan Cardwell, a guy who is the other big man next to a national player of the year type caliber player who goes under the radar by a lot of people. right now I have him rated as a, terms of value on the court, top 10 player in the sport based on how he's impacting Duke. And there's been a clear difference in how good Duke has played when he's been available and not in foul trouble versus not. ⁓

Nerdlander (06:00)
Yeah. Yes. ⁓

He's awesome. Yeah.

Evan (06:22)
What do you think overall of Cameron Boozer passing this test against Michigan's frontcourt? Because he has now played against Michigan and Florida, who would be the two best, biggest, most NBA-like frontcourts in the country. And he's passed both of those tests with flying colors against Florida. He had 29.6 rebounds. In this game, it was more of a facilitator role, but 18 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists, close to a double-double in this game.

So very encouraging for me. What were your takeaways there on that side of things?

Nerdlander (06:55)
So, so many guys in his position who have come in and everybody's talking about Darren Peterson and AJ DeBonse being one and two. So many guys would try to prove that they're the number one pick, right? And try to do things that maybe people say they can't. This dude just like plays within himself every single game. Plays hard. We've seen this. Now I've watched him now. This is my fourth year maybe watching him.

Dating back to the AU circuit might be the fifth even. I might've seen him under 15, 16, 17s and now this year. And I'm not kidding. I've never seen this kid take a day off or playoff. He's that consistent with his effort, his approach, his maturity. And I think that's the thing, man. He's all about winning. All they did was win in high school, AU. And again, that's why I picked him in the preseason to win it all, even though I wasn't blown away.

by some of the guys around him. But man, what he's done to expand his game, because when I first saw him, he was primarily a guy that would score from like 12, 15 and in. And now he can make threes.

He really passes the ball well. He doesn't force anything. And again, he's not trying to prove like, all right, everybody's saying I can't score over length. I'm going to go in there, get me the ball, and I'm going to show people I can score over Mara or Yaxle or Maures. No, no, no. It's like, hey, I'm going to take what the defense gives me. And if they're doubling me, I'm going to move the ball. I'm going to move the ball and get my teammates the ball in good spots.

Evan (08:26)
Yeah, I just want to put in context what Cameron Boozer is doing this year because he has been since basically three, four weeks into the season, the front runner for national player of the year. No one has really come close. So there's not really been much of a discussion. And I think that's actually doing him a disservice because it's like, yeah, Cameron Boozer was great again tonight. Ho hum. But if you put this, I just want to put a little bit of perspective on this. So on this season, Cameron Boozer is averaging 22 and a half points, 10 rebounds.

four and a half assists, almost two steals a game. He is shooting 64 % from two and almost 40 % from three. Big picture in terms of his overall value on my website at evanmian.com, I have Bayesian performance rating, which is my metric for measuring your offense and defense and overall how valuable you are. His BPR right now is 14.06. That is the second best season I have going back to 2009 when my database begins.

The only player who has a better season is that Zach Eady, 24 season. And that was just a little bit ahead. He is comfortably better than Cooper Flagg was where he finished last year. He's got the best overall statistical output in terms of his box score statistics. I think there's an argument it's better than Zion's season that he had in 2018. So he has been unbelievable.

Nerdlander (09:44)
He's just kind of,

the problem is with Kamboos, we say it over and over again, he's not flashy. So you're watching him, he's not Cooper Flagg, where he's got the ball in his hands and he can just make plays, right? And Cooper was pretty athletic. And a white dude who was pretty athletic. Zion was a freak. You know, I don't think Kamboos is a great defender.

I mean, he's a good team defender is what he is. He's super smart. He's in the right place, but he's not a guy who, who again, you know, he's not a big time shot blocker or shot alterer, but man, he just, he's a winner. He's a winner. He does everything well. I mean, think of John Shire, like how fortunate he's been the last two years to have Cooper flag and Campbell's are the two best players in the sport. But beyond that, like two guys that are all about intangibles winning, not trying to like,

do more than again what they need to do. just, hey, I'm, and you can see it with their teammates. Like that's how you can tell. Like, and both of them, like Cooper didn't do a single one-on-one interview all last year. I don't think Cam really has either. Like other than post-game stuff. And I think part of it is this thing of like, I don't want it to be about me. And they don't even like the attention. They don't, it's not like, they're not where they don't like the media.

or they're disrespectful to the media or when they talk to the media, they just don't give a shit. They don't care about the attention. It's great, it's great.

Evan (11:14)
Yeah,

yeah, it's awesome. Okay, let's move on to the other big clash that we had on Saturday. This was maybe a ⁓ slightly more surprising result. Arizona goes on the road against Houston, wins 73 to 66. And this was a pretty much full game in control effort from Arizona. They led for all but I think three minutes of this game. Houston took the lead, I think 50 to 48 with 12 minutes to go. And then they did not score. Houston did not score a single point.

till 432, so almost an eight minute stretch there. And it really showcases Arizona's defensiveness and why I have them rated as a top three defense behind Michigan and Duke. But for me, the story of this game for Arizona was overcoming adversity. Co-opete, again, not available in this game. In addition, both of their other bigs, Tobi Awaka and Mo Crevas fouled out. Braden Burys was reportedly sick and not at his best. And they still go on the road against a very hungry Houston team.

who needed to one of this win after losing at Iowa State earlier in the week and they win this one. I'm just so impressed with Arizona. They're never gonna stick out as the most fun flashy team, but when it comes to fundamentals and grit and all that stuff, they get it done every time.

Nerdlander (12:26)
Yeah, they don't make a lot of threes, you know, that's not their game. I mean, it's just weird that a Tommy Lloyd team like this is so tough because you think of Arizona and again, I went to Arizona. So I've known kind of the, you know, soft label put on Arizona for years, whether it's even with Lou Olson, some of his teams, but, you know, Sean Miller with some of his teams, even though Sean's about as tough as it gets. And now a Tommy Lloyd coming over from Gonzaga and you take away Pete.

You basically take away Burry's because he wasn't really very effective at all. Take away Dwayne Aristote, who's one of their better wing defenders and tougher dudes physically. But man, Kartchenkoff, he is so good. He is so, I don't know where you have him as like defense. I say it, I think I tweeted it. Like, I'm not sure there's five better.

perimeter defenders in the country. And this kid's a freshman, not albeit he played professional basketball in Germany, but still deemed a freshman at this point. Jaden Bradley, tough, he can guard. As you said, the beauty of Arizona is they've got these three bigs. And you've got Awaka now coming off the bench where he was used to starting for a while.

But you had, had, you know, Karchenkoff was guarding there for most of the game and he's so tough. And, you know, that, that's huge. But Bradley Karchenkoff, you know, I think those guys kind of, they set the tone and obviously Delorceau scored it. Like he shot it well. Yeah. And it's funny. when Delorceau transferred Arizona, I remember reaching out to a bunch of CAA coaches because he came from Campbell.

Evan (14:01)
Crazy game.

Nerdlander (14:10)
the fighting camels and they were almost every one of them was like, yeah, I don't think he can play it. Arizona. Like, I don't think he's good enough to make that jump. And ⁓ he's been great for them. And man, yeah, like, like I just think they did it with their defense and toughness, which is kind of what they had to do against the Houston team.

You know, frankly, like Houston really kind of baffles me in some ways, right? Like they don't have a guy you can throw it to down low at all this year, which I think really makes it far more difficult for Kelvin to try to run and score. It's kind of like now, hey, give Kingston the ball.

and let him drive middle and see what he can get, because he can usually get by anybody. But ⁓ I just think the last couple of games here, their offense, and they haven't forced turnovers. That's the other thing with Houston lately. Iowa State, I think, had three.

Arizona had five. They're one of the best teams at forcing turnovers. And a lot of times you're going to get a lot of transition for Houston. You know, when they double the ball, they turn it up, you know, forced turnovers, they get easy baskets. They didn't get a lot of easy baskets against Arizona or Iowa State.

Evan (15:07)
Mm-hmm.

Do you like

this iteration of Houston? Because this, in some good ways and bad ways, has been different for Houston this year. They don't normally have a freshman like Kingston Fleming or even a player like Chris Sinac who they can give that meaningful minutes. And in some way that raises their ceiling in some ways because of the athleticism and that sort of thing. also putting that much on freshmen and they basically replaced a guy like J.J. Roberts last year who was a

a senior veteran, feels slightly, they're still playing like Houston basketball, but it feels slightly less Houston than it did last year. And obviously last year was a team that went to a title game. So that's a high bar, but do you like this iteration? you think it has the potential to do the same things that the team last year did?

Nerdlander (16:09)
Just not as much of a Kelvin team, right? mean, their ceiling's probably higher because you got a guard that can go get.

on any time he wants for the most part in Kingston, Fleming's, but you know, I watch and I love Kingston. Like he may be my favorite player in the country to watch and talk to. He's so much fun. But I think again, there's a learning curve here and he's still figuring it out. And I talked to Kelvin about it before the Iowa State game. Like, you know, there's still some medicine flows for a guy that again could be a top five pick ⁓ better than talent wise than he's probably ever coached. ⁓

Evan (16:23)
I agree.

Nerdlander (16:42)
And again, you take away something where you don't have a guy to throw the ball down to. And Calvin said, he's like, there's nothing we can do with that now. We just don't have it. We don't have it at this point. That's not Senex's game. ⁓ Tuggler, certainly, that's not how he plays. So I think, ultimately, you're so reliant right now on your perimeter. And your perimeter is pretty damn good. I mean, again, we know those dudes can sharp. Man, some of the shots he can hit.

They're ridiculous. don't think, I also think Guzan's like trying to figure it out. Like he's had major role change over the last three years. Major role change. Just when he was starting to get kind of comfortable last year, second half of the year with the ball in his hands, they changed the whole offense for him.

And now it's like, all right, dude, like you're not really having the ball in your hands anymore. This is Kingston Fleming's show. So I don't have the same level of trust I do on this Houston team, but I will say this, like they can beat anybody because they got a point guard who is just since when he's on his A game, forget about it, forget about it. Like nobody can stop that kid from getting into the lane and making plays for whether it's scoring for himself or driving and kick it. He's just got to be a little bit more consistent. I think with,

with its decision making.

Evan (18:04)
Yeah, okay, so big picture on both of these games that we talked about, the latest AP poll that came out has a reshuffle at the top, AP poll Duke number one, Arizona two, Michigan three. That's how they're in the current AP poll. Do you think that is the correct order of who you think are actually the best three teams in the sport right now? Because for me, I think I would still take Michigan ahead of Duke as number one.

And I still think those two are a tier above Arizona in third. Would you agree with that?

Nerdlander (18:38)
No, yes and no. Yes, I would take Michigan number one still and people would say, well, how do you do that? Duke just beat him out of neutral court. Yes, agreed. But again, I think Michigan still, ⁓ they had a horrible shooting day too. They had a horrible shooting day and they haven't been like that most of the season. ⁓ I would not put Arizona behind.

Duke in Michigan. I wouldn't put them a tier below. I would say the three of them, you can kind of throw in. I just have never bought in all year to the fact that there's been a dominant team. don't remember. in the chat. I think we're in this chat with a bunch of other knuckleheads in the sport.

Evan (19:04)
Sure, sure,

Nerdlander (19:21)
And covering the sport. And I think I got yelled at for saying it like two weeks ago when I said like, there's really not much disparity to me. I don't think there's a dominant team. Everyone's like, you idiot. Look at Michigan, look at Michigan. And then they beat Purdue at Purdue. But that's a horrible matchup for Michigan. Let's be, know, Purdue does not match up well with Michigan at all. I just don't think there's that dominant team. I think you can throw maybe seven teams in a hat and say like,

Evan (19:39)
for do you.

Nerdlander (19:50)
I just don't, think it's matchup dependent. I think it's health dependent.

⁓ we're seeing it now. Some teams getting knocked out because of health, not those, not the top tier teams. mean, co-op Pete will be back, but obviously we see JT Toppin and I'm not sure Texas Tech was never in that tier anyway. Richie Saunders, BYU, they were never in that tier anyway. ⁓ but the top six or seven, think Evan, I don't know if you agree. Like, I don't think there's that big a difference. I don't think it's like, yes, Michigan fears, I think.

most coaches that I've talked to say like, that's the one team I don't want to run into in the tournament. Because again, those bigs man, those bigs and the fact that they have so much depth and like quality depth, not, not just depth, like dudes who can, you know,

You look at McKinney and Kason coming off the bench and got Gale and like they just got, they got some really good players coming off the bench. Even Cheddar, like Will Cheddar can come off the bench. He's been there for like 10 years. ⁓ So yeah, I think Michigan's a little bit, maybe a little bit better, a little bit scarier for teams.

Evan (21:03)
Yeah, I will touch on this later in the show, but I do think both these things are true. I think Michigan and to a certain extent, Duke have maybe pushed themselves a little bit ahead of those other teams, but I also equally think there are still six to seven teams that are very firmly in the title favorites tier. And I don't think it's Michigan or Dukes to lose, if that makes sense. ⁓ Okay, so one last game I want to touch on here quickly, staying in the Big 12. Complete shocker, Cincinnati goes on the road against Kansas and wins by...

16 points, Darren Peterson, hey guys, he played. But he didn't play that well for his standards. 32 minutes, but just 17 points, one of seven from three, not a lot else going on. I feel like other than Floribidunga, no one else really in Kansas had a good game. And Cincinnati is like low key really hot right now, which is kind of coming out of nowhere, maybe a bit too late.

We'll get to the Cincy thing in just a second, where does this sort of put, where does this loss put things for you in terms of Kansas? Because this team is all over the place and I think fans are rightfully fed up with what is the true identity of this team around Darren Peterson and how is this gonna work?

Nerdlander (22:12)
Yeah, I've pushed back. ⁓ Rob Dosser said for weeks, like he thinks Kansas is a team that can win six straight. And I'm like, there's no way in hell they can win six straight. Like they can't even get this dude out there for four straight, number one, like wait till they do that. ⁓ And they looked, they looked lost with him.

and he looked like a shell of himself in that last game. I mean, he just stands in the corner most of the game. Now, I saw him play in person against Iowa State a week ago, and he couldn't get by anybody. He does not look like the same player now that he looked like, you even a few weeks ago, at times. Now, he hasn't been able to obviously sustain it, we know that, but we've seen bursts where I'm like, that's the same player who I ranked number one.

a couple years ago when everybody was saying it was AJ. Like this kid has burst and I don't know, I I tried to talk around this the other night on After Dark and it's really hard for me. Here's what I'll say. I don't blame the kid for all this. I do not blame Darren P. I know a lot of people do and they're taking shots at him. I will say this, if he wanted to shut it down, could have shut it down six weeks ago, a month ago and been the number one pick. ⁓

He's out there playing. I think it's his camp. I think it's his camp that's the issue right now. And I think it's his camp that's been the issue for a while now. Not getting this thing kind of.

I don't want to say fix, but just kind of figuring this thing out, figuring this thing out with the cramps and what's going on. I think now it's a mental thing. I do. think a big part of it now isn't just physical. It's, hey, when this comes on, he can't work through it. He just can't, he can't figure out a way to work through it. And I think almost like last game, you watch him and you're like, just standing there, is he protecting himself? Is Bill self protecting them?

by just saying, stand in the corner. We want to get you through the full game. When they get you the ball, OK, you can make a move, but we don't really. And even like he's jogging around for the most part. Like I don't think I saw him sprint the whole game on offense or defense.

So I wish I knew exactly what to make of the situation. think I have a decent feel on it. Some things can be said, some things can't. But I will say this, like I'm not taking a shot at this kid. I know people will. And it's a little bit shocking to me that if you had told me Darren Peterson two years ago would be in this situation and people would be questioning his mental and physical toughness, I would have said no way in hell after watching him. No way. mean,

Evan (24:46)
Yeah.

Nerdlander (24:48)
kid was I thought he was a killer on the AU circuit so this this really surprises me but I think there's more than meets the eye and I don't think it's like load management or protecting his draft stock I think a lot of it right now is up here

Evan (25:04)
Mm-hmm. Yeah, and that's disappointing. We want a healthy Darren Peterson for Kansas in general We just want some stability like there we need some ⁓ We need to know what's happening and we need to know what you can count on what you can't and I think they really need that desperately This was a great win for Cincinnati though. They're Maybe a little bit too little too late here, but they're 15 and 12. They've won four straight games Do they have a shot at making the tournament? I feel like

Nerdlander (25:08)
Yes.

Evan (25:32)
They've got four games before the Big 12 tournament at Texas Tech versus Oklahoma State versus BYU at TCU. I think based on looking at their resume metrics, they probably have to go three and one to even have a pulse entering the Big 12 tournament. This has been a turnaround though. mean, their resume is barely a top 70 resume in the sport, but right now based on their form, I have them as the 36th best team in the country. That's a big gap. Do you think Wes Miller can...

get this group at least in the conversation on Selection Sunday.

Nerdlander (26:05)
I here's the question I have to you. And we went through this exercise a little bit there of like, all right, this Texas tech team, if they beat them without JT Toppin, how much, how much you given them for that? How much you given them for that? Like you said it, you said they went from like a top 12 ish team for you to now like the 40th best team for you. See, I listen, I listen to you occasionally. So. ⁓

Evan (26:25)
That's correct, yep, in terms of adjusting for the JT Topp and injury,

Nerdlander (26:32)
Yeah, I mean, they probably, if they can run this thing and win all four and win a game in the Big 12 tournament, yeah, they probably get to the, again, everybody always said, I got it from like two coaches yesterday. What do we have to do out? What do we have to do? You went to the moxil. I'm like, dude, don't give me that much credit, first of all. Number two, nobody knows. Like I could tell you all I want. Like, I mean, I could just say, win out, right? Win out.

to this couple of coaches that hit me, but like we don't know what everybody else is gonna do. So you can't just say like, well, if Wes Miller goes, they win all four and they win a game in the big 12th tournament, they're in. We don't know what everybody else is on the bubble. What's New Mexico gonna do? What are some of these other teams gonna do? New Mexico could run the table themselves and some of the other teams that are on the bubble. ⁓ So I find it.

really hard to answer that question. I would say if you're Wes Miller and you're trying to keep your job, you probably need to finish very strong and maybe get in the NCAA tournament. And I give Wes a lot of credit. He stood up there a couple of weeks ago and it probably did change a little bit of kind of how they've been. Like he said, it's on me. No excuses, it's on me. And I think players, when they hear that...

probably say like, hey, you know what? We gotta play a little bit harder for this dude. Like he's taking the hit for us, no matter how much money we're making, no matter how much we're thinking to go on the portal in a few weeks, ⁓ we gotta play harder for this dude. And they have.

Evan (28:03)
Yeah, absolutely.

Okay, before we get out of here, I want to touch briefly on what we did on Thursday. So for those who didn't see all of our tweets on Twitter ⁓ earlier in the week, basically both Jeff and I had the opportunity with a bunch of other media members to participate in a mock selection committee exercise at NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis that was basically walking a bunch of national media members through the process of actually sitting in the shoes

committee members and what the process of Initially picking the field looks like getting seed lines scrubbing all of this different stuff It was a very intense exercise and you and I actually had the the privilege if you want to call it that of of being partners together and It was harder because we actually had to agree on every decision that we were making And it would be me looking at my spreadsheets and you being like, okay. Well this team stinks and so we to figure out You're like I think

Nerdlander (28:43)
We'll there. Yes.

Thank

Yeah, I think I said that at the end, didn't I say that to everybody I said?

Evan (29:00)
That was your argument for the tournament not expanding was all these teams stink.

Nerdlander (29:04)
And somebody pushed back I forget who it was but somebody somebody pushed back

Evan (29:06)
Okay, so one of my biggest

takeaways from this was I think in our exercise in Thursday, they kind of gave us free rein to use whatever criteria that we had to decide. And it seemed more so that way than I was expecting. I was anticipating there being more guidelines of you should really prioritize this metric or that. And ultimately, and I think this is probably representative of the real committee. They're all educated and informed on all of these different tools that they have. But ultimately, there is not one way

that you should select the tournament. so, for example, we barely talked about a team's net ranking ⁓ as a reason for them to be seated or in the field. was more about resume average and predictive average. And I think even on Saturday in the top 16 reveal, Keith Gill, he only really mentioned the net in the context of here are the teams that Duke has beat in terms of their net ranking, but he never said, the reason why we picked this team over that team was net ranking. It was more...

resume metrics and predictive metrics, was that something that you noticed as well in terms of the net maybe not being as much of a needle mover for that as maybe we're expecting, or maybe that's something that you kind of figured would be the case?

Nerdlander (30:16)
I just, I've talked to enough of the committee members over the years to understand they each have their own value that they place on, on what matters most. Right? So, you know, while we all want to look at a certain metric and say like, that's the one that for me, it's like the net just because the NCAA came up with it. So I always kind of just assumed it would have a little bit more weight because it's the NCAA's, ⁓ you know, way of measuring the best teams.

And that's not necessarily the case and some people on that committee have told me straight out They're like hey, you know what I watch a lot of games If it's close, I'm going with the eye test I'm going with the eye test if it's close because a lot of times it is heaven and it is on the bubble Let's face it. Like when we're trying to figure out those final teams, how hard is it?

Evan (31:06)
It's difficult because they all stink according to you.

Nerdlander (31:08)
Yes.

Well, I would say this. mean, again, no matter what you do, you go to 64, you go to 68, you go to 72, 76, we're always going to have complaints from whoever the next four or eight teams are. So we're never going to get rid of that. But yeah, I I thought the Miami University, that was the one, that was the hottest button topic that I think we faced. And it was interesting because

your boy who you had on before me, Matt Norlander, who never shut up through the entire day, ⁓ was on the pro I don't care who.

Miami played or didn't play, they're undefeated. And I love Travis Steele and I love the story. There's no bigger fan of the Cinderella story than me. I want them to get in the worst way, but I'm also realistic about this thing. And I pushed back and I said, like, they played three 90 ones. They've played another half dozen teams that are basically 300 or below in Ken Palm and the net. ⁓ they could have played somebody. They could have played somebody and he put, no, they couldn't get anybody. I got a list of people that they couldn't

play and I'm like, trust me, they could have played good mid-majors. Maybe highs and I think they could have gotten a two for one with a high. mean, again, Towson played multiple, they played St. Mary's and a high major this year. They played Kansas before. Purdue played Akron this year, I believe. ⁓ Most of the high Alabama, call Alabama, they'll play anybody. We know that they play plenty of mid-major plus teams. And Travis Steele also had the benefit of returning.

almost everybody from his team. So I don't know, man. Like it's a tough one for me. And again, I just wanted to run the table. So it's not even a discussion, but I also look at that schedule and I'm like, that schedule is awful.

Evan (32:57)
Yeah, and I think both of these things can be true for Miami, Ohio. I think based on the fact that they're undefeated even against a poor schedule, I think they deserve to be in the field as of right now. I also think if they were in Dayton in a first four game against, say, Ohio State right now, if I actually pull up a hypothetical matchup preview at evameah.com between Miami and Ohio State, Ohio State would be favored by about five points, which is a pretty big margin for a game between two teams that are in Dayton.

Nerdlander (33:10)
Yeah.

Okay. Yeah.

And I don't want

them as a first four. Like I think if they get in, if they get in, put them as like an 11 or 12, put them in the real field. they get in, again, especially we were talking, the hypothetical was if they lose a game and then lose in the Mac tournament to whoever, then what do you do with them? And right now they're down to what? Four, what are there four games left? I think four games. So hopefully it won't come to that. Hopefully they just went out.

Evan (33:27)
No, I don't either.

Nerdlander (33:55)
at this point, we're not at least in the regular season. And then I think if they have one loss, even in the tournament, they'll end up getting in the NCAA tournament. But that was to me, I'm trying to think of what else. I mean, the injury things were obviously interesting with JT Toppin.

Evan (34:09)
We obviously talked

about Texas Tech, but I think there was also an acknowledgement of this isn't gonna matter as much to the committee because they're gonna have a number of games at that point, in which case you just kind of take them for face value at that point. Yeah, yeah.

Nerdlander (34:19)
Yep. That's right. We

just kind of, we, we, we split, think the, in the middle of like, right, we're not going to drop them as far as 40th, like you would, or like they say, they're going to, you say they're, they may be, ⁓ we're to drop them. I think we dropped them to 21.

Evan (34:35)
Ultimately, the committee didn't hold that against them at all, at least in the top 16 reveal. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Well, I know we could keep chatting, but I'm gonna let you go. Thank you so much for your time today, Goodman. Hopefully, you feel a little bit more respected after. Okay, I'll have you on in December when no one's listening. How about that? Okay, I'll put you down for it.

Nerdlander (34:37)
at all. Yes, which no doubt.

in a little. Next year I want to be number one. I want to be the lead off hitter. ⁓ I can come on twice. I can come on twice. ⁓ Just

put me on twice and just take Norlander right off the board.

Evan (35:02)
Perfect, all right. It was great to get your analysis on what's going on. I really appreciate you joining me today.

Nerdlander (35:07)
Thanks Evan, appreciate it man. Keep doing well.

Evan (35:10)
Thank you to Jeff Goodman for joining me today. As I mentioned, we ended up spending a lot of last week together. We were both at the Purdue Michigan game in West Lafayette on Tuesday, and then the mock selection exercise where we were basically chained together at a desk for eight hours. But it's always great to spend time with him. He does great stuff at Field of 68 if you're not already tapped into Field of 68 and they're every night after dark coverage. And they're gonna have a lot of stuff around NCAA tournament time as well for analysis.

Be sure to check them out. lot of their stuff you can find on YouTube and on Twitter and that sort of thing. And I just will also mention Jeff Goodman has been one of the big media members in the space who has really taken me under his wing, really going back several years ago, one of the earliest people to reach out to me and say that he appreciated what I was doing and was trying to offer any support in any way that he could. So he's been a big part of, you know, kind of my growth and gaining credibility in this industry. So I'm really thankful to him for that. So.

Thank you to Jeff for joining me on the show today. It was awesome to have

Evan (36:11)
Well guys, there's a lot more to get to from the weekend as we get ever closer to March and I am thrilled to have on Will Warren from Basket Under Review to dig into some more of these results. Well, we gotta get to what I think was arguably the most exciting game of the weekend, certainly the best ending. UCLA beats Illinois in overtime on a buzzer beating layup by Donovan Dent, final score. UCLA 95, Illinois 94. This was kind of a late night game on Saturday.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (36:11)
Well guys, there's a lot more to get to from the weekend as we get ever closer to March and I am thrilled to have on Will Warren from Basket Under Review to dig into some more of these results. Will, we gotta get to what I think was arguably the most exciting game of the weekend, certainly the best ending. UCLA beats Illinois in overtime on a buzzer beating layup by Donovan Dent. Final score, UCLA 95, Illinois 94. This was kind of a late night game on Saturday.

Evan (36:40)
This was not the expected outcome for this game if you were watching early in the first half. Illinois was up 33 to 10 after a first half avalanche, which is what we call a 20-0 run. And just for the sake of context here, teams this season who have had a 20-0 run in a game are 60 and six until this game. So there was basically less than a 10 % win rate for teams that were on the other end of this. And that's what UCLA was able to overcome in this game.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (36:40)
This was not the expected outcome for this game. If you were watching early in the first half, Illinois was up 33 to 10 after a first half avalanche, which is what we call a 20 run. And just for the sake of context here, teams this season who have had a 20 run in a game are 60 and six until this game. So there's basically less than a 10 % win rate for teams that were on the other end of this. And that's what UCLA was able to overcome in this game.

Evan (37:10)
They ended up tying it with 15 minutes to go in the second half. It was very much back and forth after that. At the end of regulation, Donovan had a chance to win this at the buzzer with a step back three, did not happen. So then we go into overtime and UCLA is up one with 16 seconds left. Keaton Wogler drives into the paint, kicks it to Ben Humrickhouse for three. He misses the three, but Wogler tips in the miss with 4.9 seconds. And then once we get out of the timeout,

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (37:10)
They ended up tying it with 15 minutes to go in the second half. It was very much back and forth after that. At the end of regulation, Donovan Dent had a chance to win this at the buzzer with a step back three, did not happen. So then we go into overtime and UCLA is up one with 16 seconds left. Keaton Wogler drives into the paint, kicks it to Ben Humrick-Haus for three. He misses the three, but Wogler tips in the miss with 4.9 seconds. And then once we get out of the timeout,

Evan (37:40)
Donovan Dent takes it the length of the court, a whirling layup released with a half second left. The buzzer sounds, UCLA wins, storms the court. This game was the absolute goods on Saturday. What were your thoughts, Will, on this thriller between UCLA and Illinois?

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (37:40)
Donovan Dent takes it the length of the court, a whirling layup released with a half second left. The buzzer sounds, UCLA wins, storms the court. This game was the absolute goods on Saturday. What were your thoughts, Will, on this thriller between UCLA and Illinois?

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (37:56)
You think mid avalanche Mick was thinking about what he might say in the presser? You think he was looking at the roster? was like, Xavier Booker, we haven't kicked him down.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (37:56)
You think mid avalanche Mick was thinking about what he might say in the presser? You think he was looking at the roster and was like, Xavier Booker, we haven't kicked him down.

Evan (38:01)
you

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (38:01)
you

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (38:06)
It was great for UCLA. I think they had to have this to get into the tournament. they're up, I want to say, north of 40 in WAB at the moment. So they're ahead of the pack, which is good for them. And that would be, for me, a shame to not have Donovan Dent in the NCAA tournament. I know it's not been his best season, but he's come on a little bit more as of late. Obviously, he had a giant bucket here.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (38:06)
It was great for UCLA. I think they had to have this to get into the tournament. So they're up, I want to say, north of 40 in WAB at the moment. So they're ahead of the pack, which is good for them. And that would be, for me, a shame to not have Donovan Dent in the NCAA tournament. I know it's not been his best season, but he's come on a little bit more as of late. Obviously, he had a giant bucket here.

Evan (38:11)
Yes.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (38:11)
Yes.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (38:30)
Frankly, after the weird career he's had, I wouldn't mind seeing Sky Clark get a little bit of March shine. I think it could be really useful for him to, uh, to end on a good note, but this is a great game. Great finish. Uh, I definitely mentally tuned this out at 33 to 10, or I think what I, I think when I first saw the score is 27, eight or something like that. And I just, I was like, well, I won't be turning that on. And then I, uh, our friend Andrew Weatherman, his site, CBB data, the scoreboard.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (38:30)
Frankly, after the weird career he's had, I wouldn't mind seeing Sky Clark get a little bit of March shine. I think it could be really useful for him to end on a good note, but this is a great game, great finish. I definitely mentally tuned this out at 33 to 10, or I think when I first saw the score, was 27 to eight or something like that. And I just was like, well, I won't be turning that on. And then our friend Andrew Weatherman, his site, CBB Data, the scoreboard.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (38:58)
I checked, I don't know what else I was watching, but I checked like midway through the second half. was like, how is UCLA leading this game? That doesn't sound right. So I turned it on, made sure his score bug wasn't messed up and it was all good. But, ⁓ this is great for UCLA. This has exposed a, my last real remaining concern about the Illini. Yeah, they have an amazing offense. Number one in America to me. I don't think anybody's touching it this year.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (38:58)
I checked, I don't know what else I was watching, but I checked like midway through the second half. was like, how is UCLA leading this game? That doesn't sound right. So I turned it on, made sure his score bug wasn't messed up and it was all good. But, ⁓ this is great for UCLA. This has exposed a, my last real remaining concern about the Illini. Yeah, they have an amazing offense. Number one in America to me. I don't think anybody's touching it this year.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (39:26)
Yes, if they're hitting threes ago along with a huge rebounding edge they create on a nightly basis, they're really hard to defeat. ⁓ But I can't stop feeling some concern about a defense that ranks dead last and turnover is forced. that is, you know, as a guy who thinks a lot about shot volume and you know, what is your plan when shots do or don't fall? That does kind of give your opponent like a fallback option.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (39:26)
Yes, if they're hitting threes ago along with a huge rebounding edge they create on a nightly basis, they're really hard to defeat. ⁓ But I can't stop feeling some concern about a defense that ranks dead last and turnovers forced. that is, you know, as a guy who thinks a lot about shot volume and you know, what is your plan when shots do or don't fall? That does kind of give your opponent like a fallback option.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (39:38)
Mmm.

Evan (39:38)
Mmm.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (39:51)
You know that you're not going to pressure the ball and you know that you're not going to force many turnovers. So they're going to get off shots and Illinois does protect the defensive boards exceptionally well. But that along with some interior defensive issues that have started to crop up a little bit, like.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (39:52)
You know that you're not going to pressure the ball and you know that you're not going to force many turnovers. So they're going to get off shots and Illinois does protect the defensive boards exceptionally well. But that along with some interior defensive issues that have started to crop up a little bit, like.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (40:08)
And the six losses this year opponents a shot 50 % or higher from two and four of them They're six and four when allowing 50 % or worse from two The culprits of the losses are all pretty similar to me good shooting offenses that don't turn it over and can score from inside and out I know that's a little easier said than done in a way but I mean if it was interesting to watch UCLA in this game because I do wonder if game script affected this a little bit 28 threes feels really high for any UCLA team and over time

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (40:08)
In the six losses this year opponents have shot 50 % or higher from two and four of them They're six and four when allowing 50 % or worse from two The culprits of the losses are all pretty similar to me good shooting offenses that don't turn it over and can score from inside and out I know that's a little easier said than done in a way but I mean if it was interesting to watch UCLA in this game because I do wonder if game script affected this a little bit 28 threes feels really high for any UCLA team and over time

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (40:38)
affected that a bit too, but the game script maybe let its hand a little bit to that, but I just keep staring at the box score that tells me five turnovers and 45 minutes of play. And while this UCLA offense is not terrible by any stretch, and one of their best features is not turning it over. That was still, I think their second lowest turnover rate of the entire season. And this is against, you know, by all accounts, top six team.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (40:38)
affected that a bit too, but the game script maybe let its hand a little bit to that, but I just keep staring at the box score that tells me five turnovers in 45 minutes of play. And while this UCLA offense is not terrible by any stretch, and one of their best features is not turning it over, that was still, I think, their second lowest turnover rate of the entire season. And this is against, you know, by all accounts, top six team.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (41:07)
And I just kind of wonder a little bit, like, is this going to be what eventually takes Illinois down?

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (41:07)
And I just kind of wonder a little bit, like, is this going to be what eventually takes Illinois down?

Evan (41:14)
Yeah, think stylistically Illinois and UCLA almost made this game play out in ways that both these teams don't typically play. So for example, Illinois out rebounded UCLA in this game by 16 and still lost the game. Illinois also attempted a season high. They shoot a lot of threes. They attempted 42 in this game. And in their next three highest attempt games this year, where they've taken a large amount of threes,

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (41:14)
Yeah, think stylistically, Illinois and UCLA almost made this game play out in ways that both these teams don't typically play. So, for example, Illinois out rebounded UCLA in this game by 16 and still lost the game. Illinois also attempted a season high. They shoot a lot of threes. They attempted 42 in this game. And in their next three highest attempt games this year, where they've taken a large amount of threes,

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (41:23)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (41:44)
they've all made 38 % of them are better. So basically in games where they've really cranked up the volume on their three point attempts, it's because they've been going in. Today they, or in this game, they only shot 31%. If you're gonna shoot around 30 % and take 42 of them, it's very, I mean, it's impressive that they were even, this game was close if you're taking that into account. But this was the most threes allowed in terms of attempts by UCLA in the last five years. So you.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (41:44)
They've all made 38 % of them are better. So basically in games where they've really cranked up the volume on their three point attempts, it's because they've been going in. Today, in this game, they only shot 31%. If you're gonna shoot around 30 % and take 42 of them, it's impressive that they were even, this game was close if you're taking that into account. But this was the most threes allowed in terms of attempts by UCLA in the last five years.

Evan (42:10)
Illinois went and said, we have a game plan and this is something different that UCLA has normally seen and UCLA still won this game. So I find that to be very impressive. And like you mentioned, a very much needed win for UCLA. This moves them off of the bubble gray area, I think for me. And right now they sit at 18 and nine, 10 and six in the big 10. I have them in terms of their predicted team rate, predictive team rating as 39th in the country at evamia.com. Obviously the talent is there.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (42:10)
Illinois went and said we have a game plan and this is something different that UCLA has normally seen and UCLA still won this game. So I find that to be very impressive. And like you mentioned, a very much needed win for UCLA. This moves them off of the bubble gray area, I think for me. And right now they sit at 18 and nine, 10 and six in the big 10. I have them in terms of their predicted team rate, predictive team rating as 39th in the country at evamia.com.

Obviously the talent is there. I

Evan (42:38)
I think if they get in March, this is a very interesting team to talk about in terms of their bracket outlook, but this was huge for them. I'm curious on the more in the Illinois side of things here, Kylan Boswell has been back for three games and this has been a conversation while he was out. It was what allowed Keaton Wogler to really become the force that he has been this year. And the question was always, okay, they want Boswell back, but how is it going to work with him back because

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (42:38)
think if they get in March This is a very interesting team to talk about in terms of their bracket outlook, but this was huge for them I'm curious on the more in the Illinois side of things here Kylan Boswell has been back for three games and this has been a conversation while he was out it was what allowed Keaton Wogler to Really become the force that he has been this year and the question was always okay. They want Boswell back but how is it going to work with him back because

Evan (43:05)
Keaton Wogler was so ball dominant.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (43:05)
Keaton Wagner was so ball dominant

when he played, but Boswell is the more traditional point guard. So in these three games back, I think Boswell has played well, but Wagner has scored 18 points, 10 points, 19 points in those games. He's made just two threes collectively across those games. You would hope that even if his scoring volume is down, his efficiency stays up. That's not been the case. How do you think Illinois can get the best out of those two players down the stretch? Because they're going to need them both to play well.

Evan (43:07)
when he played, but Boswell is the more traditional point guard. So in these three games back, I think Boswell has played well, but Wagler has scored 18 points, 10 points, 19 points in those games. He's made just two threes collectively across those games. You would hope that even if his scoring volume is down, his efficiency stays up. That's not been the case. How do you think Illinois can get the best out of those two players down the stretch? Because they're gonna need them both to play well.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (43:34)
I wonder if you have to stagger the lineups a little bit because like you mentioned, know, Wagler's usage rate falls off a cliff when they share the court. It goes from 29 % when Boswell is off to 23 % when they're both out there together. And Boswell's usage rate actually falls too, down to 21 from 24. I do think there's just some stylistic overlap in the way they both hunt their shots.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (43:34)
I wonder if you have to stagger the lineups a little bit because like you mentioned, know, Wagler's usage rate falls off a cliff when they share the court. goes from 29 % when Boswell is off to 23 % when they're both out there together. And Boswell's usage rate actually falls too, down to 21 from 24. I do think there's just some stylistic overlap in the way they both hunt their shots.

and the style of shots that they both get are a little different when one or the other is off the floor. So it's hard to look at it and be like, hey, I think it'd be great if you didn't play your two best players together, but it's creating an interesting thing where the two best players do functionally do, while not being the exact same player, a lot of the exact same things. So that's a tough one for Brad to figure out.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (43:58)
and the style of shots that they both get are a little different when one or the other is off the floor. So it's hard to look at it and be like, hey, I think it'd be great if you didn't play your two best players together, but it's creating an interesting thing where the two best players do functionally do, while not being the exact same player, a lot of the exact same things. So that's a tough one for Brad to figure out.

It is a good thing that you have this problem where you have two great players and you got to kind of figure out how to play them off of one another. But I would say that like when they play together, Illinois is just as good, if not better efficiency wise on both ends of the court. And they do have a higher rim rate, which will help them. I think, you know, with the styles of shots they take, so many long threes and such a wide and tall roster, they're going to get a lot of offensive rebounds back pretty much every game. But.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (44:25)
It is a good thing that you have this problem where you have two great players and you got to kind of figure out how to play them off of one another. But I would say that like when they play together, Illinois is just as good, if not better efficiency wise on both ends of the court. And they do have a higher rim rate, which will help them. I think. You know, with the styles of shots they take so many long threes and such a wide and tall roster, they're going to get a lot of offensive rebounds back pretty much every game, but.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (44:55)
that level of spreading off the court and being able to attack the rim with those two out there, it's kind of like the old warrior's death line up a little bit. That can get you out of a jam when you need to. And I can see a scenario here where we get to the Sweet 16 in Illinois down by three or something with eight minutes left. And it's like, all right, we're going to ride Boswell and Wagler together for the next eight minutes and see what happens. either or both can go off in that scenario.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (44:55)
that level of, you know, spreading off the court and being able to attack the rim with those two out there, that can, it's kind of like the old warrior's death line up a little bit. That can get you out of a jam when you need to. And I can see a scenario here where like, you know, we get to the Sweet 16 in Illinois down by three or something with eight minutes left. And it's like, all right, we're going to run, we're going to ride Boswell and Wagler together for the next eight minutes and see what happens. you know, both, mean, either or both can go off in that scenario.

Evan (45:24)
Another big result for a home team that was an underdog over the weekend was BYU getting a much needed home win against Iowa State. think even before the Richie Saunders injury, I was kind of penciling this game as saying BYU has not beaten any elite teams this year. They've had a lot of opportunities, but they've come up short in order to really bolster their resume. They need this one. And then Richie Saunders gets hurt and all of a sudden

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (45:24)
Another big result for a home team that was an underdog over the weekend was BYU getting a much needed home win against Iowa State. think even before the Richie Saunders injury, I was kind of penciling this game as saying BYU has not beaten any elite teams this year. They've had a lot of opportunities, but they've come up short in order to really bolster their resume. They need this one. And then Richie Saunders gets hurt and all of a sudden.

Evan (45:49)
This becomes a still very gettable game, but not a gimme by any means against a very good Iowa State team that going into this game was on the one seed line, according to the selection committee in their top 16 reveal on Saturday. But BYU pretty much led this for the entire game. AJ DeBonsa, a lot of the success for them is going to come from ultimately just giving him the keys and letting him do his thing because there is one less star player to sort of take the pressure off of him. And he finishes with maybe his best all around game he's had. I know he's had some bigger

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (45:49)
This becomes a still very gettable game, but not a gimme by any means against a very good Iowa State team that going into this game was on the one seed line, according to the selection committee in their top 16 reveal on Saturday. But BYU pretty much led this for the entire game. AJ DeBonse, a lot of the success for them is going to come from ultimately just giving him the keys and letting him do his thing because there is one less star player to sort of take the pressure off of him. And he finishes with maybe his best all around game he's had. I know he's had some bigger

Evan (46:19)
Scoring outputs but against a very good Iowa State team. He finishes with 29 points 10 rebounds 9 assists so almost a triple double there and like Rob Wright his other co-star if you will was Underneath his usual level just six points for assists no threes in this game But they got other pieces to step up which has not been a given for them a lot this season Mahalo Boscovich had 13 points that was big for him

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (46:19)
Scoring outputs but against a very good Iowa State team. He finishes with 29 points 10 rebounds 9 assists so almost a triple double there and like Rob Wright his other co-star if you will was Underneath his usual level just six points for assists no threes in this game But they got other pieces to step up which has not been a given for them a lot this season Mahalo Boscovich had 13 points that was big for him

Evan (46:45)
And on the defensive side of things, they really limited Iowa State's weapons. Milan Mamchilovic, the best three pointer in the country, only had one made basket in this entire game. He averages about 17 and a half per game. And so that was big for them. And BYU, again, not the same outlook for them without Richie Saunders. I think their chances of a Final Four are pretty much gone, but they're going to be somewhere in that.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (46:45)
And on the defensive side of things, they really limited Iowa State's weapons. Milan Momchilovic, the best three pointer in the country, only had one made basket in this entire game. He averages about 17 and a half per game. And so that was big for them. And BYU, again, not the same outlook for them without Richie Saunders. I think their chances of a Final Four are pretty much gone, but they're going to be somewhere in that

Evan (47:10)
you know, five to seven seed range most likely when we get to selection Sunday, they're going to be a team that no one's going to want to face. I know that's a very cliche, but when you're talking about a guy who could maybe be the future best player in the NBA potentially and in AJ DeBansa, you know, in the conversation for number one pick, that actually is true. So ⁓ this was a big result for them. Do you think that this is something that they can continue even without Richie Saunders going forward?

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (47:10)
you know, five to seven seed range most likely when we get to selection Sunday, they're going to be a team that no one's going to want to face. I know that's a very cliche, but when you're talking about a guy who could maybe be the future best player in the NBA potentially and in AJ DeBansa, you know, in the conversation for number one pick, that actually is true. So ⁓ this was a big result for them. Do you, do you think that this is something that they can continue even without Richie Saunders going forward?

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (47:39)
Yeah, but not every night. I think that they could pop off a win here or there like this. The thing for me with AJ, so the usage already this year is at 38 % with no Saunders on the court. It filtered only for top 100 opponents. It's 40, which is insane. mean, Rob Wright also is at 26%. So when those two are in the court, that's two thirds of your possessions being used by just two guys. The other three are kind of just there to, you know, moral support, basically, spacing, occasionally hitting a three.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (47:39)
Yeah, but not every night. I think that they could pop off a win here or there like this. The thing for me with AJ, so the usage already this year is at 38 % with no Saunders on the court. It filtered only for top 100 opponents. It's 40, which is insane. mean, Rob Wright also is at 26%. So when those two are in the court, that's two thirds of your possessions being used by just two guys. The other three are kind of just there to, you know, moral support, basically, spacing, occasionally hitting a three.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (48:08)
⁓ don't know how sustainable that is, but it is fun. It's an entertaining watch. It's an experience that we don't often get at the high major level. And I did want to note we were a point and an assist away from AJ being the first person to do 30, 10 and 10 twice in a season since Oscar Robertson. Oscar Robertson in 1960, which would have been

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (48:08)
⁓ I don't know how sustainable that is, but it is fun. It's an entertaining watch. It's an experience that we don't often get at the high major level. And I did want to note we were a point and an assist away from AJ being the first person to do 30, 10 and 10 twice in a season since Oscar Robertson. Oscar Robertson in 1960, which would have been

Evan (48:29)
Yeah.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (48:34)
a pretty historic day. don't know that he'll ever be as good as Oscar Robertson was, but those, when you're in that territory of like talking about that name in a game, then you're clearly doing something right. They are in a really interesting spot to me going forward based on their schedule where this is like the last marquee opponent. I mean, Texas Tech on senior day is going to matter, but you your next three UCF WVU Cincinnati.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (48:34)
a pretty historic day. don't know that he'll ever be as good as Oscar Robertson was, but those when you're in that territory of like talking about that name in the game, then you're clearly doing something right. They are in a really interesting spot to me going forward based on their schedule, where this is like the last marquee opponent. I mean, Texas Tech on Senior Day is going to matter, but you know, your next three UCF WVU Cincinnati,

weirdly enough, two of those three teams could be playing their way into the tournament.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (49:00)
Weirdly enough, two of those three teams could be playing their way into the tournament.

West Virginia probably dead on the at large bubble, but we don't know. ⁓ Everybody's gonna have something to play for, which makes all of these games interesting. And I will say really quick on the Iowa state side, I don't feel too much concerned about this. ⁓ Really hard spot on the road, BYU needed it. Coming off of Kansas Houston back to back.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (49:04)
West Virginia probably dead on the at large bubble, but we don't know. ⁓ Everybody's going to have something to play for, which makes all of these games interesting. And I will say really quick in the Iowa state side, I don't feel too much concerned about this. ⁓ Really hard spot on the road, BYU needed it coming off of Kansas Houston back to back.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (49:26)
The question of what does Iowa State bring defensively this year when they don't force turnovers does loom a little bit because they're out there now four and three when the opponent turns it over an 18 % or few of possessions. Opponent off opponent offenses that take good care of the ball generally seem to have more success. You know, more patient offenses if you will, but I don't know. I still like this team just fine.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (49:26)
The question of what does Iowa State bring defensively this year when they don't force turnovers does loom a little bit because they're out there now four and three when the opponent turns it over an 18 % or few of possessions. Opponent off opponent offenses that take good care of the ball generally seem to have more success. You know more patient offenses if you will, but I don't know. I still like this team just fine.

There's always the desire to be reactionary. think we're going to see that. However Houston goes later tonight, we'll see how that shakes out. I think Iowa State's fine and BOU's like you said, final four, probably not, but like second weekend, sure.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (49:46)
There's always the desire to be reactionary. think we're going to see that. However Houston goes later tonight, we'll see how that ⁓ shakes out. I think Iowa State's fine and BOU's, like you said, final four, probably not, second weekend, sure.

Evan (50:04)
Yeah, and I think this win probably moves BYU up a seed line when we get to selection Sunday compared to if they didn't have that really one more key win that they were chasing. And on Iowa State, I agree with you. I mean, this stretch that they had against Kansas, Houston, BYU, going two and one in that stretch, you take that because the BYU is loaded and there's no way you're winning all of those games. So.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (50:04)
Yeah, and I think this win probably moves BYU up a seed line when we get to selection Sunday compared to if they didn't have that really one more key win that they were chasing. And on Iowa State, I agree with you. I mean, this stretch that they had against Kansas, Houston, BYU, going two and one in that stretch, you take that because the BYU is loaded and there's no way you're winning all of those games.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (50:26)
Mm-hmm.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (50:26)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (50:31)
I'm not really worried about Iowa State in that sense. ⁓ They still have as good a trio as, a lot of it was, who has the better trio in the Big 12? And now, BYU is down a star, so it's really Iowa State there, and so that's a really fun ingredient for them. Okay, moving on to SEC. Tennessee got a really big road win against Vanderbilt, 69 to 65. And just kind of big picture for Tennessee before we get into this game. I think this win possibly moves Tennessee from the

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (50:31)
You know, I'm not really worried about Iowa State in that in that sense. And, know, they still have as good a trio as, you know, a lot of it was who has the better trio in the Big 12. And now, you know, BYU is down a star. So it's really Iowa State there. And so that's a really fun ingredient for them. OK, moving on to SEC, Tennessee got a really big road win against Vanderbilt, 69 to 65. And just kind of big picture for Tennessee before we get into this game. I think this this win possibly moves Tennessee from the

Evan (51:00)
the five to the four line, at least that's how I have it according to resume quality at evanmia.com. And one of the things I like about Tennessee is they have some sneaky good wins. Their win against Houston on a neutral in the players era festival has aged wonderfully for them, but road wins again in the SEC against Vanderbilt, Alabama and Georgia are all very impressive to have on your resume. I think that stacks up really well for them.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (51:00)
the five to the four line, at least that's how I have it according to resume quality at evanmeah.com. And one of the things I like about Tennessee is they have some sneaky good wins. Their win against Houston on a neutral in the players era festival has aged wonderfully for them, but road wins again in the SEC against Vanderbilt, Alabama and Georgia are all very impressive to have on your resume. I think that stacks up really well for them.

Evan (51:27)
I admittedly did not get to watch a ton of this game, there were some other things going on, but I know that you were really glued in on this one. So what did you take away from this win for Tennessee over Vanderbilt?

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (51:27)
I admittedly did not get to watch a ton of this game. were some other things going on, but I know that you were really glued in on this one. So what did you take away from this win for Tennessee over Vanderbilt?

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (51:36)
Tennessee's path this year is not pretty, but the way they own the boards is really remarkable to watch on a game-by-game basis. I'm looking at Torvik right now, nine straight opponents held under 30 % rebound rate on offense. And over the last eight games, six times, Tennessee's rebounded 45 % or more of their missed shots. That is going to get you some places in March. And to go with that, Tennessee quietly has...

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (51:36)
Tennessee's path this year is not pretty, but the way they own the boards is really remarkable to watch on a game-by-game basis. I'm looking at Torvik right now, nine straight opponents held under 30 % rebound rate on offense. And over the last eight games, six times, Tennessee's rebounded 45 % or more of their missed shots. That is going to get you some places in March. And to go with that, Tennessee quietly has...

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (52:05)
not stopped, but slowed their turnovers on offense. know, last four games, admittedly three of these against what we'll call politely bad defenses, 15.7, 15.4, 10.6, 14.2 % turnover rates offensively.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (52:05)
not stopped, but slowed their turnovers on offense. know, last four games, admittedly three of these against what we'll call politely bad defenses, 15.7, 15.4, 10.6, 14.2 % turnover rates offensively.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (52:22)
I mean, considering I sat and watched Tennessee turn it over on a quarter of possessions against Syracuse two months ago, this does represent real growth. So I think we're seeing them kind of build into something better. Nate Ament has obviously started really blossom for them. The biggest takeaway for me was Tennessee winning that game without JP Estrella, who has really graduated into their best big by my eyes. And despite, you know, having some like, you know, up and down play

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (52:22)
I mean, considering I sat and watched Tennessee turn it over on a quarter of possessions against Syracuse two months ago, this does represent real growth. So I think we're seeing them kind of build into something better. Nate Ament has obviously started really blossom for them. The biggest takeaway for me was Tennessee winning that game without JP Estrella, who has really graduated into their best big by my eyes.

And despite, you know, having some like, you know, up and down play

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (52:52)
from the other posts like Jalen Carey was not great he did enough but he wasn't great, Akbar was okay, Tennessee just it's like it's a very flawed team but a flawed one that's very interesting seems built to be fairly safe from an upset I would say in the round of 64

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (52:52)
from the other posts, like Jalen Carey was not great. He did enough, but he wasn't great. Akbar was okay. Tennessee just, it's like, it's a very flawed team, but a flawed one that's very interesting seems built to be fairly safe from an upset. I would say in the round of 64.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (53:11)
and which makes them really interesting as a value play on from that so

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (53:11)
and which makes them really interesting as a value play on from that. So I

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (53:16)
I am always curious to hear people's thoughts who, you know, perhaps don't live in the same town as the university on this team.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (53:16)
am always curious to hear people's thoughts who, you know, perhaps don't live in the same town as the university ⁓ on this team.

Evan (53:24)
Yeah, I think I will touch on the whole turnover and offensive rebound thing. That was a very interesting point you made. I, on the keys to victory tool at evidmia.com, I just pulled up Tennessee over the last five years based on how they've played according to their offensive rebound percentage and their turnover percentage in games. And it's a very interesting split here. The tool identifies that their target should be in games who have an offensive rebound percentage above 37 % and a turnover percentage

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (53:24)
Yeah, think ⁓ I will touch on the whole turnover and offensive rebound thing. That was a very interesting point you made. I on the the keys to victory tool at evanmia.com, I just pulled up Tennessee over the last five years based on how they've played according to their offensive rebound percentage and their turnover percentage in games. And it's a very interesting split here. The tool identifies that their target should be in games who have an offensive rebound percentage above 37 percent and a turnover percentage

Evan (53:53)
below 14. And in games where they hit both of those marks, in the last five years under Rick Barnes, they are 23 and 0, winning games by about 22 points. And it's a much worse percentage, or win percentage and margin and all that if they don't hit those. And specifically, they have hit both of those marks, 37 % on the offensive glass, turnover percentage under 14%. They've hit that five times this year for both of those. And they're 5 and 0 in those games.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (53:53)
below 14. And in games where they hit both of those marks, in the last five years under Rick Barnes, they are 23 and 0, winning games by about 22 points. And it's a much worse percentage, or win percentage and margin and all that if they don't hit those. And specifically, they have hit both of those marks, 37 % on the offensive glass, turnover percentage under 14%. They've hit that five times this year for both of those. And they're 5 and 0 in those games.

Evan (54:20)
So I do think that is a trend to watch for them going forward of, can you get on the glass offensively? Can you limit turnovers? That has been a key for them. They've had, they've hit that in their three last games against Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and LSU have won all of those games. So I really liked that. And I think in terms of their tournament outlook, from a neutral perspective, I do think that they are one of those like ho hum boring, but solid teams, you know, who they're not going to be a sexy pick to go to an elite eight.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (54:20)
So I do think that is a trend to watch for them going forward of, can you get on the glass offensively? Can you limit turnovers? That has been a key for them. They've had, they've hit that in their three last games against Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and LSU have won all of those games. So I really like that. And I think in terms of their tournament out outlook, from a neutral perspective, I do think that they are one of those like ho hum boring, but solid teams, you know, who they're not going to be a sexy pick to go to an elite eight.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (54:45)
Mm-hmm.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (54:45)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (54:49)
But you can't overlook them. I think they're absolutely in that final four potential tier with other teams that are maybe more interesting to watch like Nebraska or even Vanderbilt is a team that will be talked about more as a potential fun team to pick. But Tennessee is right in the mix there. typical Rick Barnes, slow team, better defensively than offensively, can be a bit of a grind in terms of getting buckets on the offensive end, but really solid. And so.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (54:49)
But you can't overlook them. think they're absolutely in that final four potential tier with other teams that are maybe more interesting to watch like Nebraska or even Vanderbilt is a team that, you know, will be talked about more as a potential fun team to pick. But Tennessee is right in the mix there. you know, typical Rick Barnes, slow team, better defensively than offensively can be a bit of a grind in terms of getting buckets on the offensive end, but, really solid. And so

Evan (55:18)
Yeah, think ⁓ people will be remiss not to consider them as a potential team to go further in this tournament when we're looking at the brackets compared to some of these other maybe more flashy names that we would see right now.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (55:18)
Yeah, think people will be remiss not to consider them as a potential team to go further in this tournament when we're looking at the brackets compared to some of these other maybe more flashy names that we would see right

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (55:30)
I would agree. I think you're selling them as a redneck San Diego state, which I don't mind. ⁓ quick note on the remaining schedule, because you mentioned the potential rise to the four. So I've seen some split opinions on that at Missouri home Bama home or sorry at Missouri home Bama home, sorry, road, South Carolina home. Vandy will be favored in all four. The odds of going for no.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (55:30)
I would agree. I think you're selling them as a redneck San Diego state, which I don't mind. ⁓ Quick note on the remaining schedule, because you mentioned the potential rise to the four, I've seen some split opinions on that. Missouri, home Bama, home, or sorry, at Missouri, home Bama, sorry, road South Carolina, home Vandy will be favored in all four. The odds of going for no. ⁓

Evan (55:34)
Hahaha!

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (55:34)
Hahaha!

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (55:57)
30ish percent I'll guess without looking. But the intriguing thing that I brought up the rebounding point for three of those four, Bama Vanderbilt, South Carolina, among the four worst offensive rebounding teams in the league. So Tennessee could really run up the score in the front court and just in general on the boards in those games. And that creates, you know, like a potential.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (55:57)
30ish percent I'll guess without looking. But the intriguing thing that I brought up the rebounding point for, three of those four, Bama Vanderbilt, South Carolina, among the four worst offensive rebounding teams in the league. So Tennessee could really run up the score in the front court and just in general on the boards in those games.

And that creates, you know, like a potential

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (56:21)
hard thing to overcome for those teams. Missouri being the the best rebounding team of these four perhaps tells you the struggles of these four teams down low.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (56:21)
hard thing to overcome for those teams. Missouri being the, best rebounding team of these four, perhaps tells you the struggles of these four teams down low.

Evan (56:30)
Yeah. Okay. I want to ⁓ close by having us both pick right now. We are a little over a month out from when we will actually have the final four in early April. So I want us to pick right now. I feel like this is the latest in the calendar year that we can pick our final four before we actually get a bracket. ⁓ So I'm going to have us both pick who right now, who would be our final four picks. Obviously we don't know how the regions are going to shake out. And some of these matchups will be make this, you know, ⁓

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (56:30)
Yeah. Okay. I want to ⁓ close by having us both pick right now. We are a little over a month out from when we will actually have the final four in early April. So I want us to pick right now. I feel like this is the latest in the calendar year that we can pick our final four before we actually get a bracket. ⁓ So I'm going to have us both pick who right now, who would be our final four picks. Obviously we don't know how the regions are going to shake out. And some of these matchups will be make this, you know, ⁓

Evan (57:00)
impossible if you will, but right now the whole board is on the table. So I'm going to ask you right now who would be your final four teams and then I will go ahead and share who I'm going with right now for the final.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (57:00)
Impossible, if you will, but right now the whole board is on the table. So I'm going to ask you right now who would be your Final Four teams and then I will go ahead and share who I'm going with right now for the Final

Four.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (57:11)
I'm doing my whole like nerd idiot logic thing that I always do where, know, at Baskin Review, we've explored like what the tournament might look like this year. I think it's kind of like a 2017 region, maybe 2015, where probably dominated by one seeds, but only like two of them make the final four, probably a two or three sit in there and then a weird team. There's always like, we're missing the walk team from last year. So my final four, I've got Michigan, Duke.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (57:11)
I'm doing my whole like nerd idiot logic thing that I always do where, know, at Baskin Review, we've explored like what the tournament might look like this year. I think it's kind of like a 2017 region, maybe 2015, where probably dominated by one seeds, but only like two of them make the final four, probably a two or three sit in there and then a weird team. There's always like, we're missing the walk team from last year. So my final four, I've got Michigan, Duke.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (57:39)
I'm going to assume Houston's probably going to end up a two. Maybe if maybe I do want Kansas to beat them. Maybe that'll give me a little bracket value. Houston is my third and then the left field team. I just feel like they're weirdly off the radar and they shouldn't be because they're going to be a six seed or so is Louisville. I don't feel like I'm hearing anybody discuss Louisville and I'm aware about the Pat Kelsey thing with top 25 competition.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (57:39)
I'm going to assume Houston's probably going to end up a two. Maybe if maybe I do want Kansas to beat them. Maybe they'll give me a little bracket value. Houston is my third and then the left field team. I just feel like they're weirdly off the radar and they shouldn't be because they're going to be a six seed or so is Louisville. I don't feel like I'm hearing anybody discuss Louisville and I'm aware about the Pat Kelsey thing with top 25 competition.

Evan (57:59)
interesting.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (57:59)
interesting.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (58:06)
But frankly, that's only a narrative until it's not.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (58:06)
but frankly that's only a narrative until it's not.

Evan (58:10)
Yeah, that's a very interesting pick. feel like Louisville has the talent and the guards to do that. I think we've seen that at Flashes this year. I would really struggle to pick Louisville as a Final Four team. You you mentioned the whole top 25 narrative. I think that's a real thing. If you look on the team ratings page at evanmia.com and you sort by opponent strength adjustment, which basically looks at on the course of the year, how do teams play up or down to competition?

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (58:10)
Yeah, I that's a very interesting pick. feel like Louisville has the the talent and the guards to do that. I think we've seen that at Flashes this year. I would really struggle to pick Louisville as a Final Four team. You you mentioned the whole top 25 narrative. I think that's a real thing. If you look on the team ratings page at evanmia.com and you sort by opponent strength adjustment, which basically looks at on the course of the year, how do teams play up or down to competition?

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (58:28)
Mm.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (58:28)
Mm.

Evan (58:39)
Louisville is the third worst in the country at basically playing better basketball against the elite teams on their schedule. And typically at this point in a year, we have enough data where this is a predictive factor that goes into a team's performance. So what that means to me is Louisville is probably a fairly safe pick to get past their first game, maybe their second. But if we're talking about them being able to pull an upset against a top five or a top 10 team, there just hasn't been a lot of evidence this year to suggest that that's in the cards.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (58:39)
Louisville is the third worst in the country at basically playing better basketball against the elite teams on their schedule. And typically at this point in a year, we have enough data where this is a, this is a predictive factor that goes into a team's performance. So what that means to me is Louisville is probably a fairly safe pick to get past their first game, maybe their second. But if we're talking about them being able to pull an upset against a top five or a top 10 team, there just hasn't been a lot of evidence this year to suggest that that's in the cards.

Evan (59:08)
So for me, that's a reason why I couldn't pull the trigger there, but I can see the enticing logic ⁓ for that. So I don't mind the pick there. For me, I think I'm going a little bit more chalky at this stage. think Michigan and Duke are shoe-ins for me. And then I'm kind of picking remaining two from Arizona, Florida, Houston, Illinois, and Purdue, probably. Once we get the bracket, I think I might feel a little bit more comfortable picking a team outside of that group to...

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (59:08)
So for me, that's a reason why I couldn't pull the trigger there, but I can see the enticing logic for that. So I don't mind the pick there. For me, I think I'm going a little bit more chalky at this stage. think Michigan and Duke are shoe-ins for me. And then I'm kind of picking remaining two from Arizona, Florida, Houston, Illinois, and Purdue, probably. Once we get the bracket, I think I might feel a little bit more comfortable picking a team outside of that group to...

Evan (59:37)
you know, be a wild card pick based on regions and that sort of thing. I just don't know who that team is right now. So I'm going to pick my remaining two from that group. Arizona's floor feels as high to me as anybody in terms of their defense, in terms of their never taking a night off. you know, Tommy Lloyd has admittedly struggled to get this group as far in the tournament as they maybe should have in recent years. I think right now they would break that.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (59:37)
you know, be a wild card pick based on, on regions and that sort of thing. I just don't know who that team is right now. So I'm going to pick my remaining two from that group. Arizona's floor feels as high to me as anybody in terms of their defense, in terms of their never taking a night off. And you know, Tommy Lloyd has admittedly struggled to get this group as far in the tournament as they maybe should have in recent years. I think right now they would break that.

Evan (1:00:05)
⁓ That streak if you will they're one of the most consistent teams from night in night out On my site, so I'm picking Arizona and I feel like it's a really tough call for me right now for that fourth final four spot between Houston and Illinois I Think coming into the weekend. I would have picked Houston. I still have Houston rated a touch higher than Illinois, but I think stylistically I think I can just see it a little bit more with Illinois and I know that they lost over the weekend as well, but

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:00:05)
⁓ That streak if you will they're one of the most consistent teams from night in night out On my site, so I'm picking Arizona and I feel like it's a really tough call for me right now for that fourth final four spot between Houston and Illinois I Think coming into the weekend. I would have picked Houston. I still have Houston rated a touch higher than Illinois, but I think stylistically I think I can just see it a little bit more with Illinois and I know that they lost over the weekend as well, but

Evan (1:00:33)
At their best, their level feels really high to me in terms of having a lottery pick on your roster and Keaton Wogler, but then also having a bunch of guys who are big, long, athletic and can shoot the three ball. feel like Illinois can impose their will more in terms of what they want to do more on most teams than a lot of other teams in this group can. And they don't seem to me to have maybe as many weaknesses as a team like Florida.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:00:33)
At their best, their level feels really high to me in terms of having a lottery pick on your roster and Keaton Wogler, but then also having a bunch of guys who are big, long, athletic and can shoot the three ball. feel like Illinois can impose their will more in terms of what they want to do more on most teams than a lot of other teams in this group can. And they don't seem to me to have maybe as many weaknesses as a team like Florida.

Evan (1:01:00)
or Purdue has shown at times this year. So I think I'm picking Illinois as my final pick there. So it would be Michigan Duke, Arizona and Illinois. What are your thoughts there?

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:01:00)
or Purdue has shown at times this year. So I think I'm picking Illinois as my final pick there. So it would be Michigan Duke, Arizona and Illinois. What are your thoughts there?

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:01:11)
I like those picks, very chalky, but that could be the way this tournament goes. mean, it wouldn't really shock me. Two things here. just for the total insanity of the styles clash, Arizona, Illinois would be my preferred one and two matchup out of any in the entire field. Number two, I did just have a thought. If I were to replace Louisville, because I think this is the greatest time in world history to pull a little by low here. And you know, I love a by low. Vanderbilt.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:01:11)
I like those picks, very chalky, but that could be the way this tournament goes. mean, it wouldn't really shock me. Two things here. just for the total insanity of the styles clash, Arizona, Illinois would be my preferred one and two matchup out of any in the entire field. Number two, I did just have a thought. If I were to replace Louisville, because I think this is the greatest time in world history to pull a little by low here, and you know, I love a by low, Vanderbilt.

Evan (1:01:14)
Of course, yeah.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:01:14)
Of course, yeah.

Evan (1:01:27)
man.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:01:27)
man.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:01:40)
Vanderbilt and they don't have the that little annoying blue tag that tells me this team sucks against top 25 competition

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:01:40)
Vanderbilt and they don't have the that little annoying blue tag that tells me this team sucks against top competition

Evan (1:01:49)
Yeah, I like Vanderbilt and I think I've wanted them in my heart to be a Final Four team all year. So it would be amazing if they could get there. ⁓

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:01:49)
Yeah, I like Vanderbilt and I think I've wanted them in my heart to be a Final Four team all year. So it would be amazing if they could get there. ⁓

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:01:57)
I'm gonna note

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:01:57)
I'm gonna note

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:01:58)
real

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:01:58)
real quick, living here would not be amazing, but objectively it would be pretty cool.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:01:58)
quick, living here would not be amazing, but objectively it would be pretty cool.

Evan (1:02:01)
Okay, that is fair.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:02:01)
Okay, that is fair.

Evan (1:02:04)
Yes, well, we don't we don't care about your personal experience on this podcast. OK, I do want to quickly ask you on a more somber note about the passing of Wes Rucker. For those who are unfamiliar, Wes Rucker was a longtime ⁓ sort of storied ⁓ blogger, journalist and media presence in the greater Tennessee community. And I personally have never met Wes face to face, but have

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:02:04)
Yes. Well, we don't we don't care about your personal experience on this podcast. OK, I do want to quickly ask you on a more somber note about the passing of Wes Rucker. those who are unfamiliar, Wes Rucker was a longtime ⁓ sort of storied ⁓ blogger, journalist and media presence in the greater Tennessee community. And I personally have never met Wes face to face, but have

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:02:07)
Hahaha

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:02:07)
You

Evan (1:02:33)
Messaged with him several times on Twitter and know him to be a great guy and a lot of stuff has come out since his surprising passing last week just about some of the way that he carried himself and his values and things like that. I know you had a bit more of a closer, you were more closely in his circles. So just any thoughts on him and sort of how you've even, I don't know, just processed the last several days as we lost a really special one in the college basketball community.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:02:33)
message with him several times on Twitter and know him to be a great guy. And a lot of stuff has come out since his surprising passing last week, just about some of the way that he carried himself and his values and things like that. I know you had a bit more of a closer, you're more closely in his circles. So just any thoughts on him and sort of how you've even, I don't know, just processed the last several days as we lost a really special one in the college basketball community.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:02:58)
Yeah, man, it's been tough. I won't lie. It was hard watching the Tennessee Vanderbilt game on Saturday, knowing like how much he would have wanted to be there. He so, you know, I can't recall if you're older or younger than me. We'll never find out. It doesn't matter. But when I first signed up for Twitter in 2009, he was basically the only journalist covering Tennessee sports that was on the site.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:02:58)
Yeah, man, it's been tough. I won't lie. ⁓ It was hard watching the Tennessee Vanderbilt game on Saturday, knowing like how much he would have wanted to be there. He so, you know, I can't recall if you're older or younger than me. We'll never find out. It doesn't matter. But when I first signed up for Twitter in 2009, he was basically the only journalist covering Tennessee sports that was on the site.

Evan (1:03:13)
You

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:03:13)
You

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:03:22)
And so that was like, was the early adopter of social media before people were really aware of what it was. And so that was how I learned about him. know, over the years, like starting out doing my own thing, there's like a collective of guys here that are very encouraging to young journalists and will answer young questions like Grant Ramey, Mike Wilson, guys like that.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:03:22)
And so that was like he was the early adopter of social media before people were really aware of what it was. And so that was how I learned about him. know, over the years, like starting out doing my own thing, there's like a collective of guys here that are very encouraging to young journalists and will answer young questions like Grant Ramey, Mike Wilson, guys like that.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:03:43)
Uh, and Wes was certainly in that group, really, really good dude. And it's going to be tough, uh, going the rest of the way without him. But I feel that, you know, to steal some terminology from our friends at IHUN college basketball, we've seen the best of us, uh, over the last few days, the GoFundMe for his family is when I last checked over $700,000, which is astonishing to me. I mean, they will be taken care of very well. There's a meal train that's planned out through the end of May.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:03:43)
Uh, and Wes was certainly in that group, really, really good dude. And it's going to be tough, uh, going the rest of the way without him. But I feel that, you know, to steal some terminology from our friends that I had in college basketball, we've seen the best of us, uh, over the last few days, the GoFundMe for his family is when I last checked over $700,000, which is astonishing to me. I mean, they will be taken care of very well. There's a meal train that's planned out through the end of May.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:04:13)
And I do suggest one that people look this all up and two, if you are the praying kind, I do suggest praying for his family. Rick Barnes did bring this up in the post-game presser. If you're not the praying kind, keep them in your thoughts. ⁓ It's a tough time for them, but as I mentioned, I do feel that we've seen the best of humanity in the last few days, sadly because of this.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:04:13)
And I do suggest one that people look this all up and two, if you are the praying kind, I do suggest praying for his family. Rick Barnes did bring this up in the post-game presser. If you're not the praying kind, keep them in your thoughts. ⁓ It's a tough time for them, but as I mentioned, I do feel that we've seen the best of humanity in the last few days, sadly because of this.

Evan (1:04:37)
Yeah, I think for me, when something like this happens, especially feeling this close to home, if you will, in our community, it just makes me cherish life. And I know that this is a college basketball podcast and all that, but this is real life, folks. you know, nothing in life is a given. We're not owed anything. You know, I don't have any right to live to age 80. And if I get there, ⁓ is a gift from God. And so,

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:04:37)
Yeah, I think for me, when something like this happens, especially feeling this close to home, if you will, in our community, it just makes me cherish life. And I know that this is a college basketball podcast and all that, but this is real life folks. you know, nothing in life is a given. We're not owed anything. You know, I don't have any right to live to age 80. And if I get there, ⁓ is a gift from God. And so

It just makes me all the more just be grateful for our time on earth and thankful for people like Wes who lived his life in a way that was really honorable and putting others first and battling through adversity with him and his family. So it just makes me thankful, thankful to be here and thankful to want to cherish the people around me, friends and family and that sort of thing. And like you said, yeah, be praying for Wes and his family and everyone impacted by this because this can come out of left field and

Evan (1:05:05)
It just makes me all the more just be grateful for our time on earth and thankful for people like Wes who lived his life in a way that was really honorable and putting others first and battling through adversity with him and his family. So it just makes me thankful, thankful to be here and thankful to want to cherish the people around me, friends and family and that sort of thing. And like you said, yeah, be praying for Wes and his family and everyone impacted by this because this can come out of left field and-

and be really, really difficult. There are no ways to put words on going through this. I know the way that I've dealt with this and the way that you're even more closer. Imagine the people who are in his life every day. This is really tough, but there can be good that can come from this and just being thankful to the Lord for it. So, well, yeah, yeah. I just really appreciate your thoughts on that. And it was great timing to have you on today just because I...

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:05:34)
and be really, really difficult. There are no ways to put words on going through this. I know the way that I've dealt with this and the way that you're even more closer. Imagine the people who are in his life every day. This is really tough, but there can be good that can come from this and just being thankful to the Lord for it. So, well, yeah, ⁓ I just really appreciate your thoughts on that. And it was great timing to have you on today just because I...

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:05:38)
Mm-hmm.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:05:38)
Mm.

Evan (1:05:59)
I wanted to say something, I felt remiss not to mention something about it, but you knew him even better than I did.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:05:59)
I wanted to say something, I felt remiss not to mention something about it, but you knew him even better than I did.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:06:04)
Yeah, well, thanks for having me on to chat about him and just for having me on in general. This is a lot of fun. ⁓ You are, you've already been roped into assuming, are you going to be an Indy in six weeks or what? Five weeks? What is it? Five weeks? Well, so I already told Isaac Trotter you're running with us. So bring the running shoes.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:06:04)
Yeah, well, thanks for having me on to chat about him and just for having me on in general. This is a lot of fun. ⁓ You are, you've already been roped into assuming, are you going to be an indie in six weeks or whatever? Five weeks? What is it? Five weeks? Well, so I already told Isaac Trotter you're running with us. So bring the running shoes.

Evan (1:06:14)
Yeah. Yep.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:06:14)
Yeah. Yep.

⁓

Evan (1:06:22)
great.

So the only problem with that is I am, I had ACL surgery in July. So I am,

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:06:24)
So the only problem with that is I am, I had ACL surgery in July, so I am, ⁓

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:06:29)
Okay, perfect. You can ride

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:06:29)
Okay, perfect. You can ride

like they have bike share there. You can coach us.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:06:32)
like they have bike share there. You can coach us.

Evan (1:06:34)
That's true, that's true. Yeah,

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:06:34)
That's true, that's true. Yeah,

Evan (1:06:36)
I

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:06:36)
I can run at this point. I'm able to run fairly well, but I have to be a little bit. I won't be quite up for the media pickup game this year, which was a blast last year. Though I may still show up to that with a whistle and drop some plays just for the fun of it.

Evan (1:06:36)
can run at this point. I'm able to run fairly well, but I have to be a little bit. I won't be quite up for the media pickup game this year, which was a blast last year. Though I may still show up to that with a whistle and drop some plays just for the fun of it.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:06:45)
Hahaha

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:06:45)
Ha ha ha.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:06:50)
I like that. That would be good.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:06:50)
I like that. That would be good.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:06:52)
You can throw tomatoes at Isaac and I.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:06:52)
You can throw tomatoes at Isaac and I.

Evan (1:06:54)
Yes, exactly. Well, thank you so much for coming on today. I always love getting your insight on what's going on in college basketball. It was a blast having you on. So yeah, just thanks for joining me.

riverside evan raw video cfr evan's studio 0219 (1:06:54)
Yes, exactly. Well, thank you so much for coming on today. I always love getting your insight on what's going on in college basketball. It was a blast having you on. So yeah, just thanks for joining me.

riverside will warren raw audio evan's studio 0220 (1:07:03)
Absolutely. Thanks for having me.

riverside will warren raw video cfr evan's studio 0220 (1:07:03)
Absolutely, thanks for having me.

Evan (1:07:05)
Thank you to Will Warren for joining me today. Will does fantastic work over at Basket Under Review with a lot of other great writers over there who are doing good stuff. And Will mentioned this, but he does a great job every year of basically identifying the trends in college basketball and predicting what impact that's going to have on the tournament. Last year in, I don't know, maybe January, he kind of perfectly nailed that this was going to be a very chalky tournament, a lot of one seeds, and that's exactly how it turned out.

So he's got a really good pulse on that sort of thing. Be sure to go check out his stuff over there. And Basket Under Review is gonna have a lot of written content for conference previews coming up on the site. That's just around the corner. So definitely go check that out over at Basket Under Review along with all of his other stuff.

Evan (1:07:50)
A few other games that I want to give some light to on today's show that we haven't had a chance to talk about yet. In the Big East, big showdown between UConn and Villanova. UConn going on the road against Villanova coming off of a week where they lost to Crayton at home really needed this one and they ended up getting it. UConn wins 73 to 63. Very balanced, very balanced scoring night for UConn overall. Six players had between eight and 12 points in this game.

And just overall a good performance across the board. Yukon shot 55 % from the field and out rebounded Villanova by 13 in this game. Maybe the one problem with this performance for Yukon was Silas Demery had seven turnovers, which is something he has shown in some of their bigger games this year. I think he had maybe nine in the St. John's loss recently. So that is going to be something that opponents are continuing to exploit, but hopefully something they can get cleaned up.

In terms of the top four teams in the sport of teams that deserve to get one seed, I think UConn with this win, along with some of the slip ups from some of the other teams in the sport over the weekend, I think UConn is safely in the top four at this point with Michigan, Duke and Arizona in terms of their resume. And there's some clear separation between them and the next crop of teams, which would be like Purdue, Alabama and Houston. So I think this was a back on track.

⁓ road win for Yukon and gives them a chance to hold onto that one seed for selection Sunday. So that was a good result for them.

Another result in the ACC, Virginia holds on to beat Miami 86 to 83 at home. Virginia continues to kind of lurk around in this Final Four potential type tier. Right now I have them 17th in the country, which I think is kind of good enough to say if they get hot, they can make a Final Four. So this was a good win for them. Miami, this would have been a great win for them to get on the road.

Ultimately, though, I still think they are safely in the field as a nine or ten seed Miami plays at Florida State on Tuesday You absolutely cannot afford to lose that one if you are the Canes and trying to stay on the right side of the bubble So a good result for Virginia Miami comes close, but ultimately going to need a little bit more work there

St. Louis had a very interesting week. They lost to Rhode Island on Tuesday. And then I think this was on Friday. They beat VCU at home 88 to 75. And they were down early in this game. 22 to eight was the lead for VCU early. St. Louis ends up clawing their way back a 21 to two run in the second half, which included a kill shot. are the, let me double check to make sure this is right.

Yes, they are the leaders in kill shots this season. They're tied for the most at 35 and they have the most per game in the country at 1.35 per game. So more often than not, St. Louis is getting at least one 10-0 run in a game, if not multiple. That was a key ingredient to them getting this win against VCU. In watching this game, I was very impressed with Kellen Thames, who really turned this game around with his defensive intensity. The broadcasters were really praising his athleticism and that was huge in this game.

He ended up having five steals in this game and a lot of them came in that 21 to two run, some breakaway steals that really pushed the momentum forward for St. Louis. He had 16 points off the bench in just 17 minutes. So that is a key ingredient for St. Louis and I would hope that he continues to get some light on him as we get towards March Madness, because I think people are really gonna love his game.

Last one I'll mention here, we touched on this a little bit earlier with Jeff Goodman, but Miami, Ohio is still undefeated. They won over the weekend against Bowling Green. They are 27 and 0, 14 and 0 in the Mac. They have been working their way up the whole season in terms of their predictive team efficiency at evanmia.com. They are now 69th in the country, but that is still not even the best rated team in their conference. Akron is rated 63rd in the country at evanmia.com.

And right now, if those two teams played on a neutral court, Akron would probably be favored by about a half point. So if they were to meet in the title game of the Mac, ⁓ Akron would still probably be the odds on favorite to win that game. But Miami's certainly still trending in the right direction. They are 5-0 this season in one possession games, which is mind-bogglingly crazy good. You would hope that that doesn't reverse course against them over the next couple games.

They have six players Miami does averaging between 10 and a half and 15 points per game. So you'll love that they are not star dominant. They're very balanced there in terms of their outlook going forward. I think a lot of people listening to this would love for Miami to just get to March Madness undefeated or win their conference tournament. No doubt about it. But here's the reality of the situation. The probability that they get to their conference tournament with zero losses right now.

is only 38%, so it is more likely than not that before they even get to their conference tournament, they will take one loss. If they were to then lose in the Mac tournament, and that depends on who they lose to, how far they get to, that becomes a very interesting conversation about a two loss at large situation there. Right now, they deserve to be in the field. A team that would be about at large.

Strength in terms of just getting in the field would be expected to have 1.3 losses against their schedule and Miami has zero losses So they should get a lot of credit for that But if that turns into two losses by the time we get to selection Sunday, this becomes a much more Dicey conversation for them, but you have to give credit to them for even just getting to this point a lot of people talk about Miami, Ohio and maybe would even say they've sort of rigs the system by

playing all those bad teams and being undefeated to this point. The reality is there is no way that Miami, Ohio could have possibly expected for this to work like this. Based on how good they were coming into the season, which was a very good team with a lot of key returning players, the probability against their schedule that they would be undefeated right now at this point in time is 0.09 % or one out of 1,134. So if you were to play the season over,

A thousand times only one out of those a thousand times give or take would on average result and then being undefeated at this point There is no possible way that you can plan and replicating this if you're another mid major in this kind of same tier what they have done is incredible and They should be given a lot of credit for that and this is not just them gaming the system Yes, their schedule has been poor, but they should not be undefeated at this point and they are so they should get a lot of kudos for that right now I think they're probably a ten seed

If it's seeded right now, if they have one loss, that would be probably more last for in territory, but ultimately, ⁓ you know, that's kind of what we're talking about here. So I think if they can get all the way to the conference tournament undefeated and then take a loss, I think they're in. If they have get have one loss going in and then they lose again in their tournament and have two losses, it gets pretty dicey. I really hope they could pull this off, guys, because this is one of the best stories in America. So just wanted to give a little bit more light to that there.

Evan (1:15:25)
All right, it is time for this week's analytics corner. This is the section of the show where I share some things that are more analytically driven, more statistical in nature, often from evanmia.com. I've got two things for you today. First, we're going to talk about briefly some of the updated injury outlooks for teams that have lost a star player to injury for the season or out for a while, specifically Texas Tech, BYU and North Carolina. So.

If you are unfamiliar, at evanmia.com, I adjust for injuries based on predicting how good a team will be without a player if they're out for a certain period of time or for the rest of the season. You can see this reflected both on the team ratings page in terms of their injury rank, which you can see as a column, or you can actually select ⁓ account for current injuries and resort the table that way. You can also see it on any matchup preview.

which will preview any upcoming game or hypothetically any matchup between two teams. And it will show you the injury report. It will show you exactly what a team's ranking is with and without their players and how much the actual point spread is adjusted for those injuries. So, BYU lost Richie Saunders for the season. This was a little bit over a week ago now, devastating injury. We've talked about it some already.

At the time of the injury, BYU was ranked 22nd in my predictive team ratings at evanmia.com. The Richie Saunders injury dropped them to 45th. After their weekend against Iowa State, they are up to 35th, which is awesome, but still a significant drop from where they would be if they had Saunders available, but they are trending in the right direction with a much needed win against Iowa State at home. Texas Tech was 12th before the JT Toppin injury.

They dropped to 40th after his injury. Both of those teams make sense because they have star players and not a lot of depth. figuring out which players are going to fill the gap in their absence is tough. And so that's why Tech dropped almost 30 spots. They are now up to 34th, up from 40th after a comfortable win against Kansas State over the weekend, but have kind of lost their likely hopes at getting to a Final Four this year, which is really sad.

UNC has Caleb Wilson out. The hope is that he'll be back before the tournament if not sooner UNC is in the 40s. I think when when Caleb Wilson isn't out was is out Henry Vesar has also been in and out of the lineup and if he if both those guys are out the rating really drops I think they're in the 60s without both of those guys. They're two star players. So Continue to monitor that going forward Hopefully UNC is full strength by the time we get to the tournament and we won't have be having to have this conversation But that's where both of those teams fall

in the injury adjustment.

The last thing I want to touch on is my updated efficiency landscape graph that I put out on social media on Monday. This basically looks at every single team's offensive and defensive rating at evamia.com on a graph. And then I actually break this up into tiers of title favorites, final four potential hit or miss, happy to be here and the rest. And those thresholds are mostly scientific, especially the title favorites one.

The way that I determined the title favorites tier on Selection Sunday is you take the top rated team at evanmia.com, whatever their relative rating is, you subtract six from that and every team within six of the best team, those are the teams that I'm calling title favorites and the last 10 national champs have been in that tier on Selection Sunday. So right now, Michigan and Duke have kind of separated themselves a little bit. I mentioned this earlier in the show.

At least according to the metrics and how good they're predicted to be going forward, Michigan and Duke are kind of above the rest. Best two defenses in the country and a considerable gap. Again, doesn't mean no one else can win, but there's a bit of separation there. But there are ⁓ four other teams that fall in that title favorites tier that are just close enough and that would be Arizona, Houston, Florida, and Illinois. Purdue slightly misses the cutoff there, but if they had a good game or two, they could easily find themselves in that conversation.

The Final Four potential tier is pretty wide. I think there's about 16 or 17 teams in that tier, but there's a pretty big gap between the top of that group in, let's see, Purdue, UConn, Iowa State, and Gonzaga. And then there was a big gap, and then you have the rest of that group, which is, in no particular order, because they're all kind of bunched similarly here on the graph, Nebraska, Michigan State, St. John's, Tennessee, Virginia.

Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Those teams are in the Final Four potential tier, talented enough to make a deep run when playing well, but not near the top of the group and there is some separation there. Some notable teams in the hit or miss category. This is what I call teams that will make noise in March and others that will flame out. So it's a bit hit or miss as to what they'll do. Some notable teams in this tier. Louisville, I think is the best team in this tier along with Kansas. St. Louis is in this group. Kentucky is in this group.

Wisconsin is in this group, Utah State is in this group. Ohio State is still in this group. Now it is not a guarantee by any stretch they make the tournament. I still think they are stronger than what their resume shows right now. And so if they get in the tournament, that will be a very interesting team to sort of discuss as possibly making a, winning a game or two in the tournament. But they absolutely need to take care of some business to get there in the first place. So those are my overall takeaways there. There were some teams on the very boundaries of this graph.

Like San Diego State has a great defensive rating, very horrible offensive rating. Oklahoma is kind of the flip side of that great offense, horrible defense. They're kind of lingering in the happy to be here group, but slightly worse than that. ⁓ But again, if you wanna check out that full graph, you can find it on Twitter, on Instagram, on Reddit as well. I post it in all of those places. The efficiency landscape, I will have an updated version of this.

Once we have the field, the day after selection Sunday, where we can see where all of these teams fall. So be sure to check that out once we get the official bracket there.

Evan (1:21:33)
One last item to get to is the winner of our listener contest, which I announced last week. The contest was listeners submit which team they thought would improve the most in their overall rating at evidmia.com from when they submitted it to Sunday morning. We got a lot of submissions to this. The winner of this kind of surprised me because the team that improved the most submitted by listeners was by Justin Kane, who submitted Nebraska. Nebraska.

moved up exactly zero spots in the rankings this week. They lost to Iowa on the road and they beat Penn State by 23 at home. So not a great week for Nebraska. That was the best team picked by everybody. I am very disappointed in the listenership of this show and I thought you all would be able to do a better job of predicting things going forward. We're going to have to improve this as we get towards the bracket because if we had a bracket pool right now, I don't know if this group would do very well. So congrats to Justin Kane, but I'm expecting better from you guys.

Justin, I will be mailing you your free merch item from the Evan Mia Merch Store in the mail shortly. Well, that's a wrap for our show today, guys. I really hope you enjoyed it. We are getting ever closer to March. We will be back next Tuesday with another show. Again, this is an ad free show as always. So please help support the show ⁓ and give it more momentum by giving us a five star review on Apple or Spotify. We need more of those podcasts reviews. If you're watching on YouTube, please subscribe to the YouTube channel. I know there are a lot of people who watch this.

who have not yet subscribed, please click that button. I love to read off reviews or comments that I get from people who are reviewing the show. Got a couple YouTube comments today. Giddy Troop said, another great episode. Loved having Ryan join this week. This is for last week's episode with Brian Hammer, which was super fun. At Adam Nelson 2248 said, great show. And this was a fun one. There was a guy named Kason Kaufman 5675 who said,

It was great meeting you at Cameron on Saturday. You got to get Ryan to make a trip. So I went to Cameron Inverdure Stadium for their home game against Clemson last week. And I was first time for myself in Cameron Inverdure Stadium. I'm sitting in the media row, which is right on the court. And you've got the entire student section literally right behind you. I had a guy tap me on the shoulder and say, hey man, I love your stuff. I love the show. And I was like, hey, that's awesome. This is my first time in Cameron. And he said, it's actually my first time too. I'm not even a student. And.

and this ended up being Kason who left a comment on the YouTube. So great to meet you Kason and thanks for the comment there, it was great to meet you. And thank you to the rest of you for listening, this has been awesome and it truly means a lot to me, the continued listenership as we ramp up towards the best month of the year. I will see all of you guys next Tuesday, thank you.