The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:00)
What we ended up getting from Keaton Wogler and from Illinois in this game, I think left us both speechless.

Kevin Sweeney (00:06)
poise, I think, is the thing that really stands out the most.

it's been fun to watch his maturation and growth even from a much higher point than I think a lot of people expected in the preseason to where we are

Evan (00:15)
And honestly, you can make the argument that this performance by Keaton Wagler was the best performance we've seen by any player in college basketball.

at all this season,

Evan (00:29)
Hey everybody and welcome to the Evan Mia College basketball show. I'm your host Evan Mia Kawa and wow, what a week in college basketball. We've been talking all year about how good this freshman class is and on Saturday it was the freshman show. Keaton Wogler, Kingston Fleming's, AJ DeBansa all scored over 40 points. Cameron Boozer and Darius Acuff also had great games scoring in the 30s.

We've still got several great undefeated teams left in college basketball. It was a great weekend all around, which we'll get into shortly. We are recording this on Monday, so this will be before the Arizona BYU game. So we won't be able to get into that for you, but ⁓ so much other stuff to cover later on in the show. We will be doing a deep dive on the Arkansas Razorbacks. I've also got several interesting stats to share in this week's analytics corner. And we're also doing a contest for our listeners at the end of the show.

The winner will receive some free Evan Mia merch like this hat that I'm rocking here. So stick around for that. But first we got to get into the big storylines from this week. And here with me to do all that is the great Kevin Sweeney from Sports Illustrated. Sweeney, there were so many great things happening this weekend, but we have to start with Illinois's victory over Purdue on Saturday, AKA the Keaton Wogler show. Both you and I had the privilege of being in Mackey Arena for this game.

We were sitting right next to each other and I think going in, were expecting a high level game. What unfolded, think left us both speechless. ⁓ Keaton Wogler took over this game. Illinois won 88 to 82. Wogler had 46 points, nine threes. Basically made no mistakes the entire game. Purdue, I think, played really well offensively in this game, but ultimately it was not enough to stop this incredible freshman for Illinois.

⁓ So tell me what impressed you the most about Illinois' win over Purdue and specifically what we saw out of Keaton Wogler.

Kevin Sweeney (02:34)
Yeah, I obviously he was ridiculous, right? From the opening tip, everything they needed, he gave them. ⁓ The poise, I think, is the thing that really stands out the most. Like, never forced a bad shot, never, you know, over dribbled. Like, whatever the defense gave him, he took. ⁓ Took it decisively and won them the game with his scoring for the first.

really for the first 35 minutes and then in the final five really distributing and being a decoy of sorts until that final possession when they needed him to go get one and he was able to get in the paint and ⁓ deliver. was obviously very impressive. I think the thing that really stands out to me that I've been thinking about was when I went to practice in Salt, Illinois in October, the hype train for Keaton had already left the station. People were very excited, naturally. They had been for a while. ⁓

You know, he was, he was very good, no question. ⁓ but the one thing that their staff kind of pointed out to me that they were kind of curious to see was like him understanding that he's the star, right? And you know, that guys like Boswell and Stojakovic had done their part, you know, publicly and privately to say like, Hey, look, like it's every bit your team is at his mind, but he's just sort of wired to be maybe a little bit deferential and didn't want to step on any toes, wanted to, ⁓ play his role, so to speak.

And I think with Boswell out, any weight of that has been lifted off his shoulders. And for this to be the performance within a week of that happening, I think, kind of speaks volumes. And may set the stage for kind of a clear hierarchy down the stretch for this Illinois team. This is Keaton Wagle's ball club, particularly offensively. Doesn't mean that he's going to have to shoot every ball every game. He's going to have to distribute at times. Most teams will not guard him the way I pretty guarded him.

but he's certainly capable of it and it's been fun to watch his maturation and growth even from a much higher point than I think a lot of people expected in the preseason to where we are now.

Evan (04:35)
Yeah, and I think he mentioned this in the post game that he was like, hey, I just took what how the deep the defense gave me how the game unfolded. I learned quickly was my night, but this is just approach it like any other game. And you look at the final product for Illinois, it wasn't just Wagler, obviously. I think after the first half, it was like Wagler and nobody else. But the second half, Illinois had a closing stretch where they had four straight threes, none of them from Keaton, Wagler. I think they finished this game with 18 threes.

So the fact that they ended up having all of their other players hitting threes down the stretch was really big for them and a good sign for them going forward. We can't overlook that Braden Smith himself was really great in this game. 27 points, 12 assists, one turnover, like pretty much perfect. He had some incredible shots, was totally in control. But ultimately, Wagler outplayed him. And honestly, you can make the argument that this performance by Keaton Wagler was the best performance we've seen by any player in college basketball.

at all this season, given the stakes, given that they're playing on the road at Purdue in a really tough environment. just absolutely wild stuff. felt it was hard to describe ⁓ what we witnessed. Kind of coming out from this, ⁓ it is interesting to talk about sort of what the ceiling is for both of these teams. I know we talked about this a little bit in the pregame of like, when each team is healthy and at their best, who has a higher ceiling?

Right now, when you look at where they're ranked ⁓ in terms of the analytics, right now on my site, I have Purdue seventh and Illinois eighth. They're back to back. ⁓ Illinois obviously trending in a very positive direction. Purdue has lost two straight. I think they're understandable losses, but still not a great direction. Big picture, like how do you feel about both of these teams in comparison to each other and specifically when they're at their best, what they're capable of?

Kevin Sweeney (06:22)
I think I've always bought the ceiling with Illinois, especially once you started to see the Wagler stuff be as real as it has been. ⁓ I just think they have a lot more ways to beat you ⁓ than most teams. You have this incredible size. You have the ability to dominate the glass. You have the skill up front. Obviously, you can question why Purdue switched ball screens. And you not love that defensive decision by Matt Painter. But at end of the day, they were doing it because they were afraid of.

Jake Davis and David Mirkovic and Tomislav Avicich and Big Z, like those guys are dangerous. And I just think when you think about teams that have success in March, obviously the skill level on the offensive end, but just the versatility of the weapons ⁓ with Boswell as an elite point of attack defender, I think that certainly helps. ⁓ Stojakovic can take over a game at times with the mid-range game and he's so effective in isolation. I just.

I love their ceiling. Obviously there will be nights, I think, where they struggle defensively and certainly against Purdue, that would be one of them. And that's the concern. But I fully believe in the Illinois kind of national title upside and have for a while. This was a validating win in that regard. ⁓ I just think for Purdue, the recipe is a little trickier. ⁓ They're not going to be elite defensively. ⁓ They lack these bigger wings that are helpful matchup creators defensively when you're facing a team like.

Illinois that has a Wagler that has a Stojakovic and I think that really hurt them. ⁓ They're just so reliant on Braden and so reliant really on tougher twos, right? This is an elite offense, no question about it. But when you're as reliant on pull-ups and ⁓ post buckets the way that Purdue is, you start to wonder what it looks like to win six in a row and particularly to win two or three elite matchups in a row.

I say no question Purdue can beat anyone on any given night. I would not take them out of the quote unquote contender tier, but they would be lower in my, in my contender tier and maybe tier two of the elite teams in the sport right now. And I think I would have said the same thing before UCLA in a one way. I don't think my view has really changed. It's one of the reasons I had it, uh, Purdue fifth in the preseason when everybody else had them first. Not, not, to say that I'm like,

run around and parade that. It's a good take. It's not revolutionary that a team beat five spots off their preseason projection. But I think the question marks that you would have had about Purdue have come to life. I don't necessarily, I don't know that's a criticism of their group. I just think their ceiling is not as high as some of these teams that have a little more size athleticism, two way pop.

Evan (09:04)
Yeah, I'm certainly buying the Illinois potential and for Purdue, you know, I think their floor is certainly as high as anybody. And you talk about the fact that Braden Smith, Fletcher, lawyer, Trey Coffin, red have all played in a national title game before they've been to a final four before. I think they performed well in the tournament last year, ⁓ you know, with a team and a roster that wasn't among the nation's best. ⁓ so in terms of like a, I'm not expecting this team to have a downright disaster in tournament. think Purdue is as safe as any team.

But like you mentioned, yeah, you know, I think they're they're not going to go into this tournament as the most dangerous team to win the title. Like maybe some would have thought in the preseason does not mean that they're still not capable of that. I absolutely think they are. ⁓ I do want to go ahead and talk about the maybe the other big standout performance in game from this weekend, which was happening kind of at the same time as this game. ⁓ Houston goes on the road against Texas Tech. They've played two phenomenal games this season.

Texas Tech ends up winning this game 90 to 86. JT Toppin was incredible, 31 points, 12 rebounds. The story really though was Kingston Fleming's and it's only really overshadowed by the fact that they didn't win this game. But he had 42 points on 15 to 26 from the field, six assists. ⁓ He was really doing everything for Houston this game and maybe that's part of why they don't win this game because Sharp, Sharp had 20 points. No one else on this team really had more than six I do really think when you're talking about.

Championship ingredients for this team. They're missing a guy like a J1 Roberts from last year, but for Texas Tech I mean Christian Anderson JT Toppin both played the entire game Similar storyline all the starters are scoring just eight points from the bench ⁓ a very impressive win for Texas Tech You know overcoming a generational performance from Kingston Fleming's ⁓ You know, what are your takeaways from from this really good game as well?

Kevin Sweeney (10:50)
Yeah, look, think Texas Tech's finding its stride. ⁓ They have sort of traditionally, and if you talk to their coaching staff, like this is something that has been a frustration in the last couple of years, but like they come out of the gates a little slow. ⁓ It takes them time. have like you know, come to Jesus moment in November and December and it all kind of figures itself out. And I think their hierarchy has become very clear. Maybe that halftime against Duke was the pivot point. ⁓

We'll obviously see, but I just think you become so potent when you have three guys in Watts, Toppin, and Anderson that can go get a shot in isolation. And obviously Toppin is one of the best players in the country. Anderson wasn't even great in this game, ⁓ but he is so dynamic. And they're just getting more bodies healthy. Like the fact that Josiah Mosley was able to come in and help a little bit, I think is massive for this group. Not to say that they need him to be, you know.

He doesn't have to be elite, but they just need more capable bodies to throw in the game. And he certainly helps there. I would say for Houston, I'm not the most concerned in the world. Obviously, they had to be better defensively. They know that. But I want the hierarchy to be Kingston, Fleming, and everybody else. I understand why you might say you'd prefer a little more balance. I just think it's very obvious that this guy is the dude on this team. And I also think he raises their offensive ceiling in a way that like

all their other guards don't and all their other guards haven't because you know, LJ Cryer last year, you think about him like he was not a guy who pressured the rim at all. Even when you go back to Shed and Sasser, who were elite players in their own right, like they were good, not great rim pressure guards. And I just think it totally changes Houston ceiling. A team that is so predicated on taking and making tough twos. It totally changes their ceiling to have a guard that can touch the paint any trip. And to me,

Like the more evidence that builds up that's like, all right, it's Kingston and it's everybody else, the better for me for the long term with Houston. Obviously they're to have to guard. Obviously you can't give up 1.38 points per possession when the, when the basketball game, but I feel pretty good that a Kelvin Sampson team's got to defend and they have defended for most of the season. So I, I don't, I do not take disaster in defeat from this one, although obviously you'd prefer to win it. It's a tough road game. and the fact that Fleming's was ready for that moment, I think speaks volumes.

Evan (13:17)
Yeah, I mean, Texas Tech, I think, has shown the ability to, when they're playing well, beat anyone in the country. The fact that they came out, came and beat Duke in the second half earlier this season when they're missing half of their team really speaks to what they're capable of. ⁓ I'm still in on this Houston group from a defensive perspective. I still think they're a top five outfit, but this really speaks to what Texas Tech was able to do offensively. Texas Tech had 10 first half threes ⁓ in this game.

And that's eight straight games. First of all, for Houston, that's eight straight games. They've allowed 30 plus percent from three. That's the most in any stretch. Most games of 30 percent or better from three they've had, know, had conceded in the last five years. They allowed 12 total threes this game. That's the most allowed by Houston in any game in the last five years. They've pretty much had one game each of last four seasons where they've allowed 12 three. So if you're a Houston fan, hopefully this is like the one time.

But this efficiency by Texas Tech, think, just really speaks to what they were able to do against a Houston team that is so tough to break down. You mentioned this 1.38 points per possession. That is the most given up by Houston defense in any game since I think January 4th, 2018, when we're talking about non-garbage time efficiency allowed. So that is just a testament to what Texas Tech was able to do. And Houston was trying to take Chris Anderson out of this game and it...

They had all the other weapons, enough other weapons to get this done. ⁓ And so a fantastic performance from Texas Tech. ⁓ The one thing for me with Texas Tech besides the depth, which has been well documented, is that I have them 347th in the country in game to game consistency. Essentially what that means is on their night, they're capable of beating anybody. We've seen this multiple times this year. When they're not playing well, they can get.

you blown up by Purdue by 30. We've had some other examples where they've been underwhelming against much weaker competition. ⁓ So, you know, we'll see how that goes for them. But but I think this is as exciting a group as you're going to find. And I'm really curious to see how they continue to do and if they end up being a real contender in the Big 12, you know, to be the best team and win in that conference. Another result I want to get to and this maybe is the most meaningful result is Auburn on the road.

In Gainesville, beating Florida 76-67, Auburn took control early in this game. I think this was coming off a week where we really thought Florida was like establishing itself as the best team in the SEC, the way that they had handled some opponents previously. Auburn took an early lead off of an early kill shot in this game. Florida climbs all the way back, but ultimately Todd Pettiford had some late, some tough buckets late. ⁓ And so just very convincing win on the road. A really much needed win for this Auburn group. ⁓

Does your outlook at all change for Auburn or Florida now after this game?

Kevin Sweeney (16:09)
I think the Auburn overreaction throughout the season has been kind of ridiculous. I feel the same similarly actually about Florida. And this is probably going on a tangent here, but I am so tired of the narrative that if you play a tough non-conference schedule that you ⁓ get somewhat of a free pass. You don't. You don't. People crush teams for losing quantity of games no matter who they play.

Evan (16:18)
Yep. Yep.

Kevin Sweeney (16:39)
Right? So Auburn lost to Houston by one. It played Michigan. It played Arizona. It played Purdue. And all of a sudden the sky was falling because they lost by four in overtime to Georgia. Right? Or they lost to Mizzou on the road who's probably like a fringe tournament team. Right? like, like we were like, like Steven Pearl was being talked about, like it was Kenny Payne and they were 34th in Ken Palm. Like, like, what are we talking about here? And the same thing for Florida. Yes. This is a team that has, that lacks consistency, but

The wheels were never coming off because they lost a close game to TCU on a neutral. And I just don't understand. And it's funny, I I talked to Todd Golden before they played Arizona on the court an hour before that game. And he said, look, it's great that we can play this game because if we win, it's great. And if we lose, nobody cares. People care. Maybe they shouldn't. I think at this point, the evidence truly suggests we are overreacting to these results, but they do care. And so I think with both of these teams,

I think they are a victim of their schedules. I don't think either is elite. think Florida is better than Auburn. I was certainly surprised by the result. And I do think it does make you sort of re-center with Florida that like, individually great games by Boogie or Xavian don't magically make this backcourt whole. But at the end of the day, like this was a snicker by Alex Condon, who's one of the best players in the country, that you need to be elite. And a poor shooting day overall for Florida. And...

Florida is extremely beatable when they don't make shots. Undefeated when they shoot at least 30 % from three. I believe under 500 when they shoot below that. that's going to be the test. I think it certainly caps their ceiling in March because the likelihood that this team shoots 30 plus percent six straight games is pretty limited. But look, I still think their floor is unbelievably high because of way they rebound and their toughness. so, yeah, I mean.

brings them back to the field a little bit in the league. I still think if you were making me be a betting man, I think they're the favorite to win the conference just because of the schedule and the way things shake out. But this next stretch will be interesting with three of the next four on the road. Alabama at home is the one home game. A trip to the surging Bucky ball boys at A We'll figure out just how real this group is in a hurry. I don't think I'm not panicking over one loss. certainly don't think. I think if you swung your opinion drastically on Auburn based on this game, you were too low on Auburn to begin with.

Evan (18:59)
Yeah, and you know, I mentioned this time and time again, but you do not get any freebies in the SEC this year Even though the the top of the conference is a bit down from last year The the bottom of the conference the deafness conference is still as good as it was last year in my opinion Like every single team can beat you especially at home ⁓ You know, so the Florida has to to earn it But I think they're they're good enough to do that and still be the best team in this conference Okay, some quick hitters here There are a few other games and I kind of want to ask you which one sticks out to the most

North Carolina goes on the road and beats Virginia. And this was a game that I think going into it, North Carolina fans were, think, like almost ready to get smacked because Virginia has been that good. And that's how this game started. I think Virginia was up by maybe 14 in the first half. North Carolina whittles it down to nine at halftime and then a huge second half. Some great contributions from a lot of different players. Caleb Wilson at 20, Jaren Stevenson 17, Trimble 16, Bogovac at 14.

⁓ And so this was a very statement when needed for North Carolina. So you have that one earlier in the week. Arkansas had a huge, huge demolition win over Vanderbilt 93, 68 more in Arkansas later in the show. But that's an impressive week, especially for them. ⁓ You know, they both teams won on Saturday pretty comfortably, but that was a notable one. And then Michigan State has been on kind of a tear recently. They won by 16 points at Oregon and then they beat Maryland at home on Saturday, 91 to 48.

I have them up to fourth at evanmia.com. Jeremy Fears continues to be the best playmaker in the country. 17 assists on Saturday. ⁓ So of those three, which one sticks out to you the most?

Kevin Sweeney (20:39)
I would say the Carolina-Virginia result. part, I think Virginia still has questions to answer. They're obviously an analytical darling to a large extent. The Louisville and SMU wins were nice, but that was not a full strength Louisville team. And so I do somewhat question, not to question the validity of it, but I think the idea that Virginia is a top.

a consensus top 15 to 20 team may have gotten over our skis, but also a huge credit to Carolina on the road to get punched in the mouth the way that you've been playing. That was that was a big statement. I still think their guards are a big concern, but it was nice to see Bogovac make some shots and Dixon play a little bit better. know, kind of and very much buried at the moment. That seems likely to continue. But that was a needed one for Carolina to keep the train on the tracks and.

You know, I have a couple of winnable games here heading into the always interesting rivalry against Duke.

Evan (21:36)
for sure. Okay, I want to do an exercise here that I kid you up for beforehand. You are one of the most dialed in people during the offseason in terms of evaluating rosters. I think you you more or less rank every single team in the country going into the year. ⁓ So both of us spend a lot of time in the preseason. Mine more so is not necessarily as much opinion as is just putting in all of my ⁓ my formula to spit out how good I think all teams and players will be in the country. But we're both very aware coming into the season.

all of these different data points of where we're higher or lower than consensus. So I wanted to do a looking back and looking forward thing with you where we're both gonna pick one team from the preseason that we were either really high or low on compared to consensus that we've been pretty correct about so far in terms of how that team has done and then vice versa. One take that we had that's not really ⁓ panned out the way that we thought. So a good one and a bad one for both of us and then we'll buy stock in a team at the end here. So I will start.

And we'll start with the good first. The team that I picked for this of a preseason take or a data point that I had that I think was a bit different than a lot of other people that has turned out to be pretty correct. And I'm gonna kind of cheat here and say it's the big teams in Kentucky. I had both Louisville and Kentucky a little bit lower than consensus going into the year. I had Louisville 19th in the preseason and Kentucky 11th. I think the fans of both of those teams would have certainly

You know, been a lot higher on that Kentucky was receiving some some love as being a top five team going into the season. Louisville certainly I think was in the next year outside of that. And certainly both both these teams are still capable of a lot more. But Louisville right now has pretty much exactly performed as expected, according to that. They're 18th right now at FMV.com. That's pretty much in lockstep with what I projected for them. Obviously, Michael Brown being back is going to be big for them going forward. But but they've been.

Not quite as excellent as people wanted. then Kentucky has been a big story this year, obviously. ⁓ Kentucky fans were declaring them the best team in the country off their exhibition win against Purdue. ⁓ That has been anything but the case. ⁓ I think they're in the tournament right now, they're heading in the right direction, but ⁓ certainly not quite as good as people thought. ⁓ I feel a little bit justified with that one. What about you, Sweeney? What was a take that you had that you've been pretty nailed on with so far?

Kevin Sweeney (23:56)
Yeah, was top 20 Virginia, I feel pretty good about. I know I just kind of said that they have more to prove. But for a team that was, I think, outside of the top 50 for some preseason conversation, I feel pretty good about that. I had them above NC State and above some of the other more trendy teams in the ACC, above North Carolina, which I guess didn't age great over the weekend, but aged well until then. I think the other one I would really point out that I liked was

I had Texas A as a top half SEC team. I had them top 35 in the country. ⁓ It hasn't necessarily gone exactly the way I would have scripted it. ⁓ I was expecting a big year from Mbako, but I did feel like their roster was maybe being a little undervalued overall just in terms of the size, the guard play, and then some of the sort of intriguing by low candidates that they took like a Ryland Griffin. ⁓ again, certainly somewhat of a product of their schedule at the moment, but.

Evan (24:27)
Mmm.

Kevin Sweeney (24:54)
a that has certainly overachieved and looks like a serious and solid tournament team, which I don't think ⁓ was the preseason expectation for them.

Evan (25:03)
I'm glad you mentioned Virginia, because that is a team I picked out as my bad take of the preseason. I had Virginia right inside the top 50 going into the year. I think this could be a product of I just didn't really account for the impact that Tess Dorito and Johan Grunlo had for this team. But also, the fact that they have, I mean, all of these guys who are new to the team, Chance Mallory has been incredible. Ryan Odom in his first year,

I mean, people said it, they thought it was the right hire. It's absolutely turned out to be that case that way so far. And yes, they did lose over the weekend. That's going to happen. North Carolina is a good team. But this is a team that is comfortably asserted itself as a contender to win the SEC or at least be the second best team. And so they've certainly proved me wrong there. ⁓ You've got a team that you have been surprised by this season.

Kevin Sweeney (25:55)
Yeah, I have two back to back in my rankings that I was not thrilled about. And I had Michigan 12, Arizona 13, and that could easily be two and three or one and two. ⁓ What I would say is this as I look back. The main whiff on both was sort of like overthinking shooting from coaches that are like very bright offensive minds who understand how to create spacing without elite three point shooting.

Evan (26:05)
Wow.

Kevin Sweeney (26:25)
⁓ And also know how to generate a lead offense through offensive rebounds and things like that, right? Okay. I still think I look back and I say like, yeah, like there was limitations with this, with, you know, it shooting and then the point guard play with Michigan that that concerned me. ⁓ You know, I think that's a, I think looking back, I don't mind the process, but I think it's a good, good learning outcome. And obviously they have emerged just, I think it's a good, good reminder, like

where size is in college basketball right now and how important it is to build a stable in the front court of athletic guys, of versatile athletic guys, not just stiffs obviously, but like if you can generate that type of like rebounding momentum. It's not maybe the sexiest thing in a preseason, like especially as a completely qualitative observer, right? You're building a model where those spit outs may be more impactful. I'm sitting there and like,

How do they score? How will their offense be? And I think a lot of times you just forget, oh yeah, if you wreck people on the glass, you're going to be pretty good. And those two teams have certainly done that.

Evan (27:23)
You

Yeah, for sure. Okay, so I want to kind of make this a forward looking exercise now. And we were both going to pick a team where at this point in the season, maybe compared to where most people are at with them or what their tournament picture looks like, a team that we're either buying or selling stock in going forward. I found this very hard to pick just one, but I think my pick, and this is going to be kind of in tandem with a team I had ranked higher in the preseason that I still believe is better than how they've performed so far. And I'm picking Ohio State. ⁓ I have Ohio State.

26 in the country. I think they're at like 38th on Ken Palm. So I've got him like 12 spots higher there. And I think in general people, you know, I think Ohio State's been good this year, but a lot of the similar struggles of lack of consistency, lack of ability to close games has still kind of shown itself this year. But I think that they are trending in the right direction. This is a top 15 offense. I had them top 20 the preseason. Bruce Thornton has been as advertised. I have him as a top five player offensive player in the country.

And then John Mobley, who I thought was a big key coming into this year, he is really starting to heat up. He's had three straight games scoring 22 or more. So I think this team is capable of ending up raising some eyebrows during the rest of Big Ten play. ⁓ You're not saying they're winning this game, but they've got Michigan coming to their home floor at some point. They played them pretty close ⁓ in Ann Arbor until late a little bit ago. So if I'm picking one team to buy stock in right now, I'm picking Ohio State. What about you?

Kevin Sweeney (29:00)
I've got a buy and a sell for you. My buy is Georgia. I buy the talent, man. I really do. I think the shop making guards, I think when you have a combination of their shop making guards and then the rim protection with Sampto-Suril, you have a pretty potent recipe. When you look at when they've struggled, it's been Suril and Foul Trouble. He got ejected in the Florida game. That was massive.

Evan (29:02)
Ooh, let's hear it.

Kevin Sweeney (29:26)
Like that recipe feels pretty potent to me and I think their style of play is very disruptive to people. ⁓ I know they sort of fell apart in the second half of Texas, but I think this is a group that's probably closer to the upper echelon of the SEC than a lot of people realize, even though...

Obviously, this is a I don't think the top of the SEC is the strongest thing in the world I wouldn't be shocked if they they gonna run and then my stock down is Alabama It has nothing to do with Charles Betty Ako Who I think could actually make this look silly because I do think his defensive impact is is enormous But I just don't think this team has played particularly well for a while ⁓ and I understand that like sometimes you can like explain it away and know you know that you lose to you be you blew out Kentucky and that was sort of the alright we're back like

When was the last time you really feel like Alfvén played really well? And I have a hard time like circling that date on the calendar. ⁓

probably really going back to November. And I think they're a team that runs hot early because of their style and their system being a little easier and simpler for guys to handle offensively than a lot of other teams in November. so ⁓ I think, obviously, the win over Illinois ages wonderfully. I wasn't huge on this team in the preseason. And I think you're starting to see some of the chinks in the armor that ⁓ I would have thought were coming in the preseason.

Evan (30:47)
Yeah, mean, Alabama has a set of guards that are as electric as any in the country, ⁓ but they don't necessarily have the proven consistent front court talent. ⁓ Maybe, you know, especially if it was not a factor going forward that they, often like to have, you know, you're missing a guy like a Grant Nelson who's able to kind of be or do everything player and stretch the floor and stuff. And ⁓ so, you know, I think Alabama is still very capable of having some very big like, wow.

wins in the SEC, but in terms of the consistency, I'm kind of on the same page there. ⁓ Good picks there, by the way. ⁓ And if you're watching on YouTube, you can see that Kevin is rocking a great looking evanmia.com hat from our new merch store, which you can find on the website in the podcast description. Sweeney, this was great. Thank you so much for coming on. I always respect everything that you have to say about college basketball. You're super dialed in, and so it was a pleasure having you on today.

Kevin Sweeney (31:42)
Thanks man, excited to see how the pod grows from here.

Evan (31:45)
you so much to Kevin Sweeney for coming on the show. He is ⁓ as well connected in college basketball as anybody. He's got insights that I always, always am paying attention to. You can find all his work on Sports Illustrated. He just had an article go up, I think on Saturday night, talking about the Keaton Wogler performance at Purdue and some behind the scenes. And he mentioned this on the show.

what the Illinois staff was thinking about him coming into the year and how that's panned out. So great article that you should check out. He's also doing some stuff over at basket under review with Eric Fossett and they had a scout team video talking, breaking down Illinois' performance and Wagler specifically against Purdue. So you can find that on YouTube. That was a really good video and he will be boots on the ground for the big Michigan Nebraska game on Tuesday this week. So stay tuned for his coverage of that.

Evan (32:34)
Okay, we are going to move in next to the analytics corner. This is the section every show where I share some more analytically driven insights often from EvanMia.com, things that I find really interesting that I want to expand on. I've got a couple items today. The first one I want to talk about is the teams that are really hot in the country right now. So if you go to the team ratings page at EvanMia.com,

You can look at a lot of the teams and there's different emojis there that represent different trends going on. And one of them is a fire emoji, which basically just means which teams have really been raising their stock the most over the last month or so and trending in the right direction. And when I'm looking at the top 50 to 100 teams in the country this year, there are a handful of teams that are all really trending in the right direction that I would consider to be the hottest teams in the country right now. So I don't want to give some love to all of them.

At the top we have Michigan State, who is currently fourth at evanmia.com, up nine spots from about a month ago. So they have been incredibly impressive. We touched on them a little bit. ⁓ Nebraska is also one of the hot teams. They're 12th in the country. And I know that that's going to still seem low for a lot of Nebraska fans and people who've been watching this team. This is just how predictive analytics work. They have outperformed expectations through the season and they have been incredible. I think they're in that conversation to be a title contender this year.

They're up nine spots from about a month ago. So they've continued to do great work. They have a really tough schedule coming up ahead. Texas Tech is in the hot category. They're up 15th nationally up nine spots from a month ago. St. Louis, 24th in the country, up 10 spots from a month ago. St. Louis, the best mid-major we have this year outside of Gonzaga, which I don't really consider to be a mid-major. St. Louis has not lost since November.

⁓ And so they are doing really well. They have two big tests later in the season really late February early March They're going on the road to play Dayton who I've ranked 60th in the country and they're going on the road to George Mason who Mason who I've ranked 82nd pretty much all of their other games on the schedule They're supposed to be about double-digit favorites for so st. Louis has been great. I really want to continue to see them doing well ⁓ Because they would be a really really fun storyline, so they're doing really well

Auburn is another team that's really hot right now. They're 29th in the country. That's up 11 spots from where they were a month ago. Texas A this is the team that's leading the SEC conference right now in the standings. 34th nationally, up 13 spots from a month ago. Just one loss in conference play. Very impressive stuff from Bucky Ball. Santa Clara in the WCC, guys. The WCC is really good this year. Gonzaga is strong as always.

But St. Mary's and Santa Clara are also top 50 teams this year. Santa Clara is 43rd right now at evanmia.com. Up 32 spots from a month ago. Their only loss in the WCC is on the road at Gonzaga. They played pretty well in that game, so they're doing well. And then here's kind of a bonus one inside the top 100. Steven F. Austin playing great basketball right now. 81st in the country, up 37 spots from a month ago. Five game winning streak for them.

So just wanted to give some love to the teams that are statistically above the rest in terms of the momentum and form that they are in right now. And so look for those teams to continue to play well. They have really moved things in the right direction over the last month.

Next, I want to talk about the players in the country who have had the biggest statistical output on the season.

So if you go to the player ratings page at FNMEA.com, the main metric you will see there is Bayesian performance rating. That is my all-in-one predictive metric for how good a player is going to be going forward.

If you go to the right of that, I have a metric called box BPR. This is basically a college version of box plus minus. Essentially what this does is it looks at all of your box score stats from every single game that you played in the season and quantifies how good of a player you are just based on looking at your individual stats alone and kind of adjusting for ⁓ the teams that you've played and how good they are. And so box BPR is the, in my opinion, the most accurate version of just saying like basically who has been the best.

statistically this season. And so if we look at the top players in box BPR right now, I'm just going to kind of name them and go through some notable things here. The best player in the country, no surprise in box BPR, most productive statistically, Cameron Booza for Duke, comfortable lead on everyone else. His box BPR is above plus 13. That's really good. Next you have a group of several players who are all above 10. Braden Smith is second. Yaxle Lundeborg is third. And Yaxle...

is not playing maybe as many minutes as some of these other guys, but what he is doing across the board, scoring, rebounding, assists, defense, all that stuff has been remarkable. So he's a big reason why Michigan has been successful. He is sitting at third. Kingston Fleming for Houston is at fourth. Again, we talked about this, a huge performance this weekend. And then Christian Anderson, the guy who he played in that game is sitting at fifth. Christian Anderson has been, done everything for Texas Tech this year. Rounding out the top 10.

Keaton Wogler sits at sixth, very well deserved. Joshua Jefferson, let's not forget about him. Iowa State's best player this year. He's been an all-American level player. Caleb Wilson from North Carolina slots in at eight. He's also been very good. Again, this freshman class is incredible. Jeremy Fears from Michigan State comes in at nine. And I mentioned this before, I think he's the best player maker in the country. That's where he sits at evameah.com in the playmaking score. And then the 10th best player, Silas Demery for UConn.

He has really, really been good, especially recently, and has kind of emerged as the lead guard for UConn and what really what they have needed to continue to go undefeated in Biggie's play and be one of the best teams in the country. So he has been really good. I'll just go ahead and name a few other names here. Oscar Clough is at 11, Tyler Taner at 12, Darius Acuff at 13. More on him in a little bit. LeBaron Phylon, Alabama 14, Kishun Hall 15. That's a several.

SEC guards and and wings who have all been really good Keishon Hall I think deserves some credit here coming into the season to haed pettiford was expected to be I Really thought to haed pettiford was going to be an all-american level candidate that player has instead been Keishon Hall He has been just everything Auburn has needed so consistent scoring the ball He was really big over the weekend in their win against Florida. So Keishon Hall is there and then AJ DeBonse I think is 16th on this list

That might seem a little bit low. think De Bonsa has every opportunity to move higher on this list, ⁓ you know, and just assert himself as the season goes along. That is a really stacked group of people there. monitor that going forward. But I think this is a really fun snapshot of who has been the best and most impressive so far this year.

Okay, last thing ⁓ is I want to talk lineups and I specifically want to talk about the best lineups in the Big 12. The reason for this is I had a video that I put up on social media last week talking about Baylor from ⁓ a disappointing lens of they've been pretty inconsistent this year, probably aren't going to make the tournament. ⁓ And one of the big reasons why is they've not been able to play up to elite competition.

Well, as I was digging in on them more, actually found this incredible nugget that was actually mentioned on the Baylor broadcast by King McClure, who does a great job in a lot of these Big 12 games ⁓ on commentary. I was looking at the best performing lineups in the Big 12 on evanmia.com.

This looks at your per possession efficiency for each lineup, adjusting for the opponent's strength faced by each lineup down to the possession level. And

When you look at the top lineups in the Big 12 Conference, you have a lot of the usual suspects in here. Houston has a lineup that's second best. Iowa State has a lineup, Arizona, Kansas. But the best performing lineups over 100 possessions in the Big 12 is a lineup for the Baylor Bears, which is very surprising given how lackluster they've been most of the time. But this lineup...

is basically the starting five for this group, but with Kaden Powell in for Michael Rotae. So this lineup fully is ⁓ Obi Agbem, Cameron Carr, Kaden Powell, Dan Scalings, and Tunde Yesafu. This lineup has been outstanding for Baylor in about a game and a half of total action on the season. ⁓ Offensively, they are scoring about 142 points per 100 possessions. Again, adjusted for opponent. Just giving up.

75 points per 100 possessions. That's basically they're almost doubling the score of their opponent when it's playing outscoring opponents by 68 points per 100 possessions. For context, the average Baylor lineup is outscoring opponents by about 18 points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent this year. So we're talking about a gap of 50 going from plus 18 to plus 68 for this lineup. Again, that is crazy to see a lineup doing that well. So

Maybe Baylor can find some more success if they can lean in on that group more. Those are also the five highest rated players ⁓ in BPR overall for the team. Again, that is Agbim, Carr, Powell, Skillings, and Yesafu. Baylor has been looking for any possible way to find some higher levels of success. Would love to see that lineup used more because it's been really good so far. So I thought that was extremely interesting and wanted to bring that to your attention.

I mentioned some of the other top lineups in the Big 12. The other one is the big lineup for Houston. This comes in at second and it's the best performing starting lineup in the conference. ⁓ that is Kingston, Fleming's, Mylos, Usain, Emmanuel Sharp, Chris Zinak and Joseph Tugler. Just an outstanding group for Houston. And the consistency of that group is one of the reasons why I still think Houston is one of the national title favorites right now. I have them as a top five team in the country. ⁓

But yeah, just thought that was really interesting.

Evan (42:32)
Alright, final segment of the day and it's a good one. We are doing our weekly team deep dive this week on the Arkansas Razorbacks who had a really good week this week with wins over Vanderbilt and LSU. And with me to break it all down is Curtis Wilkerson from Inside Arkansas who does a great job covering this Arkansas program. Curtis, Arkansas made a statement last week beating Vanderbilt 93 to 68. I think people thought this game would be close. It was not close. Arkansas looked dominant.

Curtis Wilkerson (42:58)
Thank

Evan (43:02)
And then on Saturday they want a close one at home. think against an LSU side that I think is pretty underrated. They're a top 50 team right now on my website. I mean, the whole SEC conference really from top to bottom is pretty loaded in terms of you don't get any easy nights off. And this was certainly one of those Arkansas was down for the half, but an incredible second half, 52 points in the second. And amidst all of this, we've had a lot of freshmen go off this week. But Darius Acuff has been right in the mix there. He has been absolutely incredible.

Just getting better every single game it seems like. So what were your overall takeaways this week for this Arkansas team?

Curtis Wilkerson (43:37)
Well, it seems like there's a lot of bipolar basketball that goes on in the SEC in Arkansas. I think it's probably a prime example of that and we saw it last week. You mentioned the Vanderbilt game. I'm with you. I certainly didn't expect a blowout to happen in that game. You kind of like Arkansas's chances at home. They've been a different animal at Bud Walton Arena, but it was two teams coming off losses backs against the wall. I thought Arkansas responded with maybe their best outing of the season. Like their Lincoln athleticism overwhelmed Vanderbilt at times and.

It was the first game I feel like since Arkansas started up SEC play where all eight guys in that rotation contributed everybody eight, know, six guys in double figures, six with multiple assist. then as John Calipari loves to say, they kind of told on themselves on the defensive end, they can sit down and guard if they really buy into it. So it was a great showing for Arkansas, a much needed wind to add there to the resume and kind of write the ship after some rough, rough road performances. But then LSU, mentioned it.

I'm glad you said what you said about maybe a little bit underrated because I agree going into the matchup breakdowns before the game I was thinking these guys actually look pretty good. They got some players over there, especially with Thomas getting healthy. I also felt like it was maybe a little bit of a styles make fightish type of game. They took the fight to Arkansas. I felt like the Razorbacks kind of wanted to coast, fell back into some bad habits on the defensive end of the floor and they just thought, well, you know what, if we need to out score LSU, we probably can.

And they did shout out to Darius Acuff who goes for 31 but it was really that second half where 24 of his points came. He assisted or scored on 36 of Arkansas's 52. He made ten in a row at one point literally your best player putting the team on his back and they needed every single bit of it in that game.

Evan (45:20)
Yeah, I mean, it's nice to see that this Arkansas team can win in different ways. You mentioned the balance scoring ⁓ on against Vanderbilt. That's exactly what stuck out to me. They had six guys scoring between 10 and 17 points. I mean, and you had Trayvon Brazil having like 10 points, 14 boards, five assists, four steals, two blocks, like a great game from him. But then the recipe was very different on Saturday. A-Cuff had 31 points, 13 of 19 from the field, four threes, six assists.

I Thomas also had a good game and this team has shown consistently, especially recently, that they have the ability to score in spades when they need to. think they've 11 of their last 13 games, they've scored over 80 points, which is really impressive. So, you know, they've shown they can win in different ways. That that game was fun because I think an underrated part of this game was, according to my metrics that I track at Evanmia.com, this featured

the two best playmaking guards in the entire SEC between Darius Acuff and Dayton Thomas. Like they are both really, really good at what they do, both from a scoring perspective, but certainly from a facilitation perspective. But impressive stuff for Arkansas to come out of that. You mentioned that the defensive consistency here, this is something I wanted to ask you about. ⁓ Right now in terms of where Arkansas slots in the overall picture, both in the SEC and nationally.

At Evanmia.com right now, I have them as the 21st best team in the country. That's fourth best in the SEC, but there's really like a massive clump of teams really from one to 10 in the SEC who are all good enough to make the tournament ⁓ good enough to potentially win the SEC. they get hot, Arkansas absolutely is at the very, you know, tip top of that list in terms of the teams that can do that. ⁓ Offensively, they've been amazing. I have them as a top 10 offense nationally, second best in the SEC.

But the defensive consistency, that's really the thing that this team needs to figure out. ⁓ Just the seventh best defense in the SEC, that's more middle of the pack there. So ⁓ what do think the key is for this team to be consistent defensively and can they raise that level and be more a top three, four defense in this conference as opposed to middle of the pack? What do you think?

Curtis Wilkerson (47:32)
I believe in it more now than I did this time a week ago after seeing what they did against Vanderbilt and now it's just that that constant striving for more consistency and you know coming into the year I was kind of bought into this group might sacrifice some defensively to level up on offense which I kind of felt like the program might have needed to do to elevate from I mean they've been on second weekend status here for a few years to if you want to really get serious about a final four you got to be able to score it a little bit you got to be able to shoot it a little bit so

Maybe they kind of got carried away in doing that because there's a lot of firepower. They can score it in every way star power. It's fun to watch Defensive consistency. I yeah, I think it's going to determine the ceiling here if they keep handing out free admission for paint touches it the season is going to end sooner than they want it to and For me, I just I think it's smart for Arkansas to want to weaponize what I think is elite athleticism that they have

but they tend to gamble a lot without getting enough return on investment. They're not generating enough turnovers to really justify it. And Calipari talked about after the LSU games, they gambled a lot, they weren't getting the steals and every time they missed out on it, they gave up buckets and they get in scramble mode. They haven't been great there. So I think that's part of it. Some of the on-ball stuff is a little bit puzzling to me with, cause you have returners like DJ Wagner, Billy Richmond, Carter Knox, who we've all watched with our own eyes defended a pretty high level down the stretch last year.

hasn't quite been where they wanted it to be this season so far. I do think that there's a good defense in there somewhere and what they need to, you know, what they really need is to become a little bit more reliable on that end of the floor. I just feel like it's an effort thing too with Arkansas because when they really, really dial it up from a motivation standpoint, it's great. If you have the length and the athleticism and the talent that this group does, I feel like if you're playing with max effort that there's at least a pretty high floor on the defensive end.

even if you have some of the miscommunication and maybe some of the undisciplined stuff that they struggle with.

Evan (49:30)
Yeah, I mean you mentioned that the fact that you have returners like Brazil and Wagner and Richmond and Carter Knox is is huge but it is the freshman for me that really, you know, carry the story for this this Arkansas team. So I think we got to talk about them for a little bit. Darius Acuff obviously the the the place to start here on the season. Darius is Acuff is averaging over 20 points per game, six assists per game, 50 % from the field, 42 % from three, almost 80 % from the line.

⁓ And certainly has done wonders for his draft stock. I think he's in the top 10 and ESPN's latest draft mock draft I have him ranked. This is this is not a slight at all against a cuff ⁓ The freshman class is just so Loaded this year. It's crazy So right now when you go to F and Mia comm and you look at how I rank all the freshmen according to their value They bring on the court. I have Darius a cup ranked eighth among freshmen

But in terms of offensive production, one of the metrics I have is box BPR, which is basically a college version of box plus minus that looks at how good are your offensive statistics and defensive statistics. He's fourth in the freshman class in terms of his overall offensive production behind just Cameron Boozer, who's the national player of the year. And then the two other freshmen who we saw score over 40 this weekend, Keaton Wogler at Illinois and Kingston Fleming at Houston. Those are only players ahead of him. So what he's doing on the offensive end has been incredible.

I have in the top three percentile nationally in both his scoring ability and his playmaking ability. Like he does everything for this team. ⁓ Can you speak a little bit more to his impact on this team and also personally for you, where do you think he should be ranked among this freshman class? Do you agree with that eighth place where I have like Caleb Wilson ahead of him, Derrick Peterson, Braden Burys, De Bonsa and some of the other guys I mentioned, but like this is no, they're all very talented players. Do you think that's

fair or do you think you should be even higher?

Curtis Wilkerson (51:25)
I know I think that's fair. I really do. He kind of strikes me as that ⁓ next tier tier one a whatever you want to call it. I feel like that's right about where he belongs in coming into the season and throughout a lot of non conference play. There were some out there that were wondering should he come back for a sophomore year? Could is ego? Is he a first round pick? And those are the ones that I think really get under the skin of Razorback fans naturally right? But this has been. It's been a lot of fun to watch. I mean it's the first real taste of Calipari guards at Arkansas.

Last year they had Boogie Fland, Carter Knox, Billy Richmond. That was a solid class, but it wasn't like the elite John Calipari standards, right? And under Eric Musselman, they recruited really well. They had the three McDonald's All-American year with Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh. But Smith was hurt, AB was more projectable, Walsh maybe should have come back. This duo hits differently and with Acuff, he's all business, all business. And he carries himself and it's cliche, but he doesn't look like a freshman out there and nothing about his approach screams a young guy.

Super consistent, he's poised, he's unflappable. I feel like he's done a good job of kind of shedding that. Well, he's an AAU player narrative pretty quickly. He's a far better shooter than advertised coming in. I thought that would be the case. I didn't think that he would be shooting 42 % or whatever it is on volume. That's been a big thing for him. A terrific table setter and initiator of the offense. Plays with better pace and field than I thought he would. from that standpoint, yeah, top three percentile, sure, he's been awesome.

Evan (52:36)
Yes.

Curtis Wilkerson (52:54)
And he's proven that he can take the team and put it on his back against really, really high level competition. Next step for him would probably be on the defensive end of the floor where sometimes it's a little bit optional there with them. And you mentioned that matchup of playmakers between him and Thomas. Thomas couldn't guard Acuff, Acuff couldn't guard him. And so they were just feasting on each other in that basketball game. But when he turns it up, kind of like the team, and cranks it up a notch, he can be really, really disruptive on that end of the floor.

I thought he did a tremendous job on Tyler Tanner when Arkansas played Vanderbilt. So it's in there. He's got to tap into it more consistently. He put the headset on with SEC nation after that game on Saturday and said, Hey, the first thing I got to do is step up and be more of a leader on the defensive end, guard the ball better. He knows it. That's the next step in the process. Cal's on him about it, but he's been a special, special freshmen. And in terms of Razorback freshmen of all time, he's already up there pretty high on the list.

Evan (53:48)
Absolutely, and I'll give a quick shout out to his other backcourt mate who's also freshman league Thomas who I have him ranked just outside the top 10 Freshman nationally in terms of impact. I mean the fact that you have two guys who are borderline top 10 ⁓ Most valuable freshman the country is amazing. I mean he's been incredible, especially from three himself. I think I was looking at this ⁓ No other team in the country has two freshmen who are as good at shooting the three ball as Arkansas according to my metrics like

The fact that you have two guys who are shooting over 40 % from three on a lot of volume and they're freshmen is, I freshmen don't typically find this level of consistent success shooting from three. So that's really impressive to me. One interesting talking point with this team that I wanna ask you about is, I have noticed a big difference in this Arkansas group between how well they have played at home in Bud Walton Arena and how well they have played outside of Bud Walton Arena. And I think this is important because,

You know, ultimately your season is going to be defined by how the SEC tournament and the NCAA tournament goes not on your home court. So right now when you rank all teams in the country based on their difference between how will they play at home and not at home, Arkansas is the second best or biggest disparity in the entire country out of all division one teams. So there is basically no one else who is having that big of a jump in performance, which is great when you're playing at home. They're 13 and 0 at home.

All their losses though have come away from home. They're one in three on the road. Again, none of these losses are particularly bad, but they've lost at Georgia, at Auburn, Michigan State, and they're one in two on neutral courts as well. Again, not bad losses. None of these are against Houston and Duke, but they certainly have yet to find a level of consistency ⁓ and excellence that they've had at home. mean, at home, you could say this is maybe a top five team in the country the way they performed. That's certainly not the case outside of Bud Walton Arena.

Are you concerned about that at all? Do you think they will be able to find more consistent success during the rest of SEC play?

Curtis Wilkerson (55:47)
Am I concerned? Absolutely, especially after the last two road outings they had. Do I think that they can figure it out? Sure. I think that's, you know, maybe the next natural progression with this basketball team and what they do away from home, I think kind of coincides with what type of improvements they make on the defensive end of the floor. And, and you mentioned some of the stuff there, like they, beat Texas Tech on a neutral. That's a great win. They went to Michigan state early in the season. That's a tough place to go play in your second game. It was a three point game. It was a.

Evan (56:06)
Yes.

Curtis Wilkerson (56:17)
stalemate with Duke for 35, 36 minutes. They're capable. But what we've seen so far in SEC play, they went and won a road game at Ole Miss the night before they played their college football playoff game. I don't know, there might have been more Razorback fans there for that game, if we're being honest. But the Auburn and Georgia games are the ones that give you pause if you're a Razorback fan. It's tough circumstances because in both of those games, Auburn coming off having the buzzer beater overturned. And so it's a very emotional loss. You kind of knew.

Alright, if you're Arkansas, you're walking into a hornet's nest, they didn't want anything to do with it. They weren't ready for the challenge. Against Georgia, they just got popped by Ole Miss on a buzzer beater at home. They're gonna be highly motivated. You're walking into a buzzsaw. Nah, nope, we're good. We don't want anything to do with that. And so neither one of those performances, Arkansas, they didn't come out ready to play. And that's been a big point of consternation for the team, for John Calipari. They've answered the bell at home.

We'll see what it looks like moving forward here. And it's funny, we just talked about those scenarios. They're getting ready to travel to Oklahoma who's down bad. They've lost six in a row. They got popped with two buzzer beaters to lose that game at Missouri on Saturday. Same situation that Arkansas is walking into. Will they be able to step up and handle it better? Time will tell, still plenty of opportunities out there, but that's definitely something they've got to get fixed here.

Evan (57:35)
Yeah, I do want to touch on the starting lineup change. This has potentially been a catalyst for positivity for this team. John Calipari made the change in the last couple of games to start Malik Thomas and Carter Knox in place of Billy Richmond and DJ Wagner. The way this rotation works to me, I kind of love because they have eight guys who are playing all the minutes and they're all very reliable and that's pretty much it. And compare that to a team that

You know, John Calipari is closely linked with in Kentucky, who is like 11, 10 or 11 guys that have been going through injury issues, obviously, but they're still trying to figure out like who are the main guys. Arkansas already knows who that group is. So to me, like who you put in the starting lineup or not doesn't really matter as much. But this has seemed to be a positive thing, especially in that Vanderbilt game. And I do think that this does help. I think Acuff overall, I was looking at some of his teammate chemistry stats on my website in terms of who he's playing the best and the worst with.

And his worst chemistry on the team is with Billy Richmond, and he's much, much better with Malik Thomas. Again, he's going to play with all those guys because he's your your best player. But I do think in terms of finding a recipe that works early in games to start out well, you know, I do think this is potentially a good recipes for success. Do you think this is going to be ⁓ a regular thing going forward that this is going to be the starting lineup? Do you think or yeah, Calipari is going to experiment with different lineups and different matchups? Or how do you sort of see this whole situation unfolding?

Curtis Wilkerson (59:01)
If they continue to play well, he'll probably keep it the same. if, know, he's kind of the guy that doesn't really want to mess with it. We remember some of the things in the past with his lineups that might have irritated some other fan bases, but he's shown a willingness at Arkansas to make some tweaks if he feels like it's necessary. And I'm with you, know, Arkansas plays a tight rotation. The eight guys that's worked out this year because they've stayed relatively healthy, knock on wood. Last year when you lose Boogie.

Then you figure it out, then you lose a dude, Thero, then you got to figure it out again. That's, that's tough on them. ⁓ but yeah, everyone gets minutes and yeah, I don't get too caught up in who starts unless you're consistently getting off to bad starts. And so, yes, I think the combination of Malik Thomas pretty clearly being your second best player coming on strong the way that he is. He's a catalyst, a competitor, high energy guy. I like having that in the lineup. you know, plus you think about the horrific starts at Auburn and Georgia.

Plus DJ Wagner, he's really been searching for his fit finally. I think it kind of forced Kalan to doing this. I know BBN might be rolling over in their graves seeing this after the Rob and Reed debacle with DJ a couple years ago. listen, Leake, he's hoping at night Arkansas out of the gates. DJ, he looks so much more comfortable coming off the bench. And it's not just because he's coming off the bench as a six man. I think it's how they're using him. They check him in, they put him on the ball. They let him run the second unit.

I think that takes a little bit of heat off of a cuff. Maybe you can get him out and get him a blow. Maybe you can slide him down and let him be a spot up shooter where he's so good at doing that just for a couple of possessions. Let somebody else navigate all the ball screens and the nonsense out there and he can catch his breath. Maybe he'll play a little bit harder on the defensive end. So no, I like that group. I like the way it looks. know a lot of Razorback fans are interested in seeing what would it look like if they made a move at the five and went with Malik Ewen rather than Nick Pringle and switch that up.

But the moves they made so far have worked and I think it's a decent balance in there as well of offense and defense, which you obviously want to strike.

Evan (1:01:00)
I would be curious to see you in. was kind of ⁓ pleasantly surprised by looking at some of his underlying metrics. He has been a really, really good per possession score. I mean, he's able to get a bucket when he's on the court. Could provide something different for the team. So I'd be curious to see that. ⁓ do want, before we get out of here, I want to talk about kind of the expectations for this Arkansas group. ⁓ I think generally speaking, this season has absolutely been a success.

But when you play in the SEC conference, which doesn't have any like elite, elite teams this year, but when you look at the list from the top to the bottom, every single team in this conference pretty much is very formidable, especially if you're playing them on the road. every single team, Arkansas is going to have to play their A game in every game or else you can't expect to win. ⁓ In terms of what they've done so far this season, right now I have them 17th in resume quality on my site. That's like just

like the top five seed in the tournament. I have them right around 20th in terms of team rating. So that slots them kind of in that five seed to six seed range in terms of what they've done so far and expectations going forward. And the thing that's encouraging is that, like, unlike a lot of other teams who have struggled with consistency, this Arkansas group hasn't like lost any bad games. All of their losses, they have five losses, but all of them are again, as we mentioned, Georgia on the road, Auburn on the road, Houston on neutral, Duke on a neutral, Michigan State on the road, like

Those last three are also in the top six or seven teams in the country. They're tied right now for second place at five and two in the SEC behind Texas A &M. Hello? So I think they're comfortably in the tournament at this point. They're eyeing one of those probably, if you can get to a three or four seed by playing well, you're looking very dangerous going into the tournament. What are kind of your realistic expectations for this group as they finish SEC play and then

Curtis Wilkerson (1:02:34)
Yeah.

Evan (1:02:52)
ultimately go into the NCAA tournament.

Curtis Wilkerson (1:02:55)
I think we're in lockstep here. mean, you're more than a third of the way into league play a game off a pace in the SEC standings and if you go look at it, probably favored to win their next five or so, you know, before they've got road trips to Alabama and Florida and those are going to be some tough games. Now, will they win every single one of those? Who knows? We spent a lot of time here talking about the variance between home and road, so they've got to figure some things out. But in a wide open SEC with with the talent that Arkansas has where they're at at this point.

It feels like they've got enough pieces to compete for an SEC title. Doesn't mean they'll get it, but if you think about getting a top four seed in the SEC tournament, that secures that double buy when you get there. It takes a little bit of pressure off of you. think that's a, you want to win the thing, but at the bare minimum, that's where you want to wind up. And then yeah, how much can Arkansas improve its seeding profile for selection Sunday? I've kind of looked at them thinking, yeah, this looks like a five or six seed to me, but if they figure it out, sure, maybe they could get up to a four.

or a three, would have to do some damage. Maybe, you know, John Calipari, he's usually good for a head scratcher or two a year. If you're a Razorback fan, you're hoping not showing up at Auburn and Georgia was that LSU almost was on Saturday. He's also good for like a random road win that you don't expect him to get a year. So if they're able to take care of a Florida or an Alabama out there and add something like that to the resume, that could be one that might be able to bump you a seed line. So yeah, I'm with you. I think this is going to be a dangerous team that nobody's going to want to see in March.

But we've kind of been saying it all year around here. If they're hot and they're locked in on the defensive end of the floor, they could do some damage. They could go second weekend and beyond. This is also a team that if they come out, we saw a little bit of it early in the season against like a Winthrop and a Samford. Their team that could get got early if they're not locked in on the defensive end. So I think there's a high variance with Arkansas and what they're capable of doing here.

Evan (1:04:46)
I think if they're playing well, they are one of the teams that's going to be outside that top group of 10 to 12 teams in the tournament that people are going to love picking as like a Darko's to go horse to go pretty far in the tournament. I think I certainly will be tempted to do that. But you got to take care of what's in front of you. And you mentioned like they might be favorites in their next several games. But if they went three or four, I that would be great. And because I think, you know, a game on the road against Oklahoma, a game.

⁓ On the road against Mississippi State on the road against LSU. Those are all coming up in the next couple weeks and Again, given how good the SEC is would not be surprised if they drop a game or two there just because of how difficult these opponents are So you got to stick with what's in front of you? ⁓ This was great stuff Curtis. I really appreciate you coming on you do a great job covering Arkansas And I think this has got to be for my reckoning One of the most exciting teams to watch in the country if you're a neutral and you're not an Arkansas person. This team is super fun

⁓ Because it's got John Calipari, you've got Darius Acuff and ⁓ you know, this team has shown flashes of being really excellent. They've also shown some flashes of not being that. So it's a really fun watch every single night no matter what and they will keep us entertained. ⁓ So thank you so much for coming on and breaking this down. You were great and I just really appreciate it.

Curtis Wilkerson (1:05:59)
Well, thanks so much. I love the new show. Have appreciated what you've been doing from afar. You're killing it. You're turning this thing into a monster and certainly appreciate you having me on and yeah, this Arkansas team. But there's one thing you can say about him and it's any coach Cal team. The watchability is definitely there for better or for worse.

Evan (1:06:15)
Thank you so much, Curtis, for coming on the show. He does a great job covering Arkansas sports, Arkansas basketball. At Inside Arkansas, you can find their website, you can find it on YouTube. He also runs the Pod at the Palace podcast, which is their Arkansas basketball specific pod. And he also just told me that they have a new thing, a Monday night live stream called Inside SEC Basketball Live. So that's a newer thing that you can check out that he's been doing, but.

just great work from Curtis. So I really appreciate him coming on the show. I've been following his work for a long time. Before we get out of here, I mentioned this at the top of the show. We have a listener contest. For those of you who have been faithfully listening ⁓ so far to the show as we've gotten it off the ground here, it's just been so much fun. And so I wanted to give a little reward out to you guys. So we are going to announce the winner of this contest on next week's podcast. And here is how it's going to work.

On evanmia.com, one of the tools that you can find under the line up metrics section is a line up analysis tool. And what this allows you to do is that you can put in any five players on the same team or on different teams and it will tell you how good that line up should perform on the court based on the individual quality of those players. And what I want to do is I want listeners to submit who they think would be the best starting five in

all of college basketball that is taking from every single college basketball player. So you could put five players together from any team ⁓ and just keep in mind that this tool will basically grade it on the individual quality of those players, the strengths and weaknesses that will be present in that lineup. It also considers a lineup and positional balance. if you submit a lineup that's all centers, it probably won't grade very well because it will recognize that that lineup will have some issues.

⁓ So basically what I want to do is people, can submit your ⁓ lineups to me via direct message on Twitter, or you can tag me on Twitter in a post, or you can send an email to evanmiainfo at gmail.com with your submission. If you're already a premium subscriber at evanmia.com, you can go ahead and play around with this tool to actually ⁓ see what the results would be and optimize it to get the best score possible.

And if you can send me a screenshot of that, that will save me some work and will also give you a leg up on everyone else. If you're not a premium subscriber, not a problem, just guess what you think the best lineup would be and send it to me either again, direct message, tag me, send me an email, evanmiainfo at gmail.com. And I will go through as many submissions as I can for next week's show. And whoever has the best score will receive a merch item of their choosing from the evanmia.com merch store, which you can find on evanmia.com. You just click on the merch tab.

We've got hats, shirts, and some other stuff. ⁓ So we're gonna do that. That should be fun. So please submit your answers. The winner will receive a free merch item. I will announce the winner next week. Well, that is a wrap for our show today. I really hope you enjoyed it. I will be back again next Tuesday. As a reminder, this is an ad-free show, so please support the show by ⁓ rating it on the podcast platforms, Apple and Spotify. Give it five stars.

If you're on YouTube, watching it on video, subscribe, like the videos, leave comments. I will actually read out a ⁓ reviews or comments from people. We had one review on Apple podcasts from Sean CS who said, if you love data and if you love basketball, then this is the pod for you. Evan is extremely knowledgeable and uses his knowledge to create advanced metrics that are unique and make sense. Evan does a great job and there's more to it there. But thank you, Sean, for that great review and.

Ulamog on YouTube had a funny comment. said it's the Evan Mia Cowlidge basketball

That's pretty funny. So keep leaving reviews and I will read some of them on the show. Again, thank you guys so much for listening. It truly means a lot to me. This has been so much fun and I will see you all next time.