The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:00)
Hey everybody, welcome to the Evan Mia College basketball show. I'm your host, Evan Miakawa, and we have got an unbelievable Final Four on tap this weekend in Indianapolis, Arizona, Michigan, Yukon, Illinois, we'll all be duking it out. We will break down today how they all got here in the show. This past weekend of games is what the tournament is all about. That Braylon Mullen shot to give Yukon the lead was something

I will never forget, we'll get into all of that today. Here's the game plan for today's show. We're gonna start with the left side of the bracket. Carter Elliott is on deck with me here in a second to get into the Duke Yukon game, as well as talk about Illinois and preview their Final Four matchup. Then we will get to the other side of the bracket and talk Michigan and Arizona. I've got Ant Wright joining me for that a little bit later on. And stick around, for the end of the show, I will be doing our monthly

listener contest so you can win some free Evinmia gear from the Evanmia.com merch store. So listen to the end so you can find out how to win ⁓ that contest and compete.

Evan (01:08)
All right, let's get into the biggest game from the weekend. One of the greatest Elite Eight moments of all time. And with me to do that is Carter Elliott from Sleepers Media. And boy, oh boy, did we have one of the all time great endings in tournament history on Sunday as Yukon beat Duke. I mean, where do you even start with this? Yukon wins this game 73 to 72. By the way, that is the same score

What Iowa had against Florida to knock off the other one seed who's not in the final four so kind of crazy coincidence there But Duke has a huge late lead 19 points late in the first half. They live by 15 and a half I think according to ESPN the max win probability for Duke at one point was like 98.7 percent Yukon whittles it all the way down and then we have this final sequence which will be rewatched over and over and over again

Silas Demery was fouled with 10 seconds to go, makes one of two from the line. So Duke is up two, the inbounds to Cameron Boozer, who passes to Dame Sarr. And then the Caden Boozer receives the ball and is trying to get over half court, tries to pass over Demery and Mullins and they ⁓ block the pass. Mullins passes to Carabin who just gives it right back to Mullins. think Braylon said in the post game, he was like, I'm trying to get it to our best shooter. And then he just gave it back to me and I just had to chuck it up there.

And Braylon hadn't hit a single three in this game. He was 0 for 4 before that shot. It goes in. Cart, walk me through how you experienced the end of this game. What were you thinking as this went down?

Carter Elliott (02:42)
mean, look, even as a person who didn't really have ⁓ a dog in this fight, right? I was, you know, at this point, me being a Michigan State fan, I'm just looking for some really good basketball games. And at the start of this one, unfortunately, you know, Duke kind of looked like they were gonna run away with it, like you said, but I think that...

One thing you can't measure or one thing you can't take into account is that some of these teams and programs just have championship level fight and DNA to them. And that's really what I saw from Yukon in this basketball game. The only thing is I thought it was enough to get them back in the game. I still thought Duke was going to get across the finish line given how they played. Duke is probably kicking themselves that they didn't get across the finish line. But I mean, for Hurley and Mullens to do that in that moment, the steal.

He gets it over to Carabane. I thought Carabane was gonna shoot it. Braylon Mullins himself said he thought Carabane was gonna shoot it. He gives it back to him. Mullins who even outside of this game in general, he's been struggling with his shot. And this was a guy who was lauded as an incredible three point shooter coming in as a top 10 recruit, I believe he was. And he hadn't found his shot. And now no one cares about anything he's done all year. When he is of age, I don't think he'll ever buy a drink in stores Connecticut ever again. ⁓

It's a legendary moment when what becomes a legendary game, legends are made in March, you know the cliche saying, but it was a truly awesome, awesome thing to watch. The elation for UConn, the absolute heartbreak for Duke. Once again, I feel for Duke fans, I couldn't see myself going through that moment. That is really, really tough, just an awesome, an awesome, awesome moment in March, which is what we all want to see as fans of the game.

Evan (04:26)
Yeah, I was on the same page with you. I never thought for a second till that shot went through the hoop that Duke was losing this game. thought, mean, Duke has all season and going back to last season and a lot of times, you know, they have had their end of game struggles, but generally speaking, this team finds a way to win. And even though they lost it, I didn't think that they were gonna, I mean, there was really nothing on paper that would suggest this was gonna be a toss up going into the end until that sequence at the end.

When you talk about this UConn group being unkillable, I think that is Dan Hurley's M.O. to a T. His record speaks for itself. Everyone's seen it going around at this point. Hurley is 19-5 in the NCAA tournament, and I think he's now 10-0 in the Sweet 16 and beyond. Basically, every time that he's gotten a team good enough to get to this stage of the tournament, he is not lost. And wouldn't put it past them to get two more done and win this national championship, though they're...

Carter Elliott (04:59)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (05:21)
on paper going to be weaker than at least one or two of the other teams in this Final Four, but that's on paper what they dealt with Duke, and then you're down 19 and you still find a way. Just incredible stuff. And then the other thing too about it from the Yukon perspective is I don't think even with the comeback they played that well, generally speaking, they were horrible from three in this game, which is something that they pride themselves in. They were one for 11 from three in the first half, and it improved, quote unquote,

to just four of 12 in the second half and two of those were the last, the three by Mullins and Caravan. So they improved in the second half, but it still was a very off night for them and they were able to get this done. We talked about Braylon Mullins and just an incredibly cool moment for a freshman from Indiana to get that moment. But you have to go back to the Alex Caravan three with 52 seconds left. That's really what allowed this to even be a game in the first point. And he also had not made a three up to that point. He was 0 for five.

before he had a long through with 52 seconds left to cut it to one. Between Caravan and Terris Reed, who we can talk more about his performances as well, those two in particular have just willed this team to this point and their leadership and the belief against a juggernaut of a Duke team to never give up, to chew away at that lead, it's so impressive.

Carter Elliott (06:42)
Yeah, Alex Carabane is one of the greatest winners to ever play in college basketball. That's like, that's what, that's why his, his Jersey is hanging in the rafters right now because he's a winner. He's seen a lot. He can do a lot. You know, in that moment he's over five. He didn't hesitate whatsoever. I mean, this is a game too where, mean, Carabane air balled his first or second three point attempt of this game. He was wide open and this is a really good shooter. And it just, shows the resolve that this team has and just, think not to steal a word from, ⁓

Coach Matt Painter's book, just the intestinal fortitude is what he talks about. Like that's just kind of what you saw from UConn in this game. They were one for 18 from three at one point in this basketball game. Like it was a truly dreadful level performance of shooting, but they just timely plays, timely basketball plays. Solo ball had timely steals. Silas Demery had some timely moments. Terris Reed was a monster in this basketball game.

He kept them in it for a good portion of it. And when it came down to winning time, that's really what this game is about. We just talked about a bunch of plays when it came down to winning time that UConn players made the play. Where Duke players, they tensed up, they turned the ball over, they didn't execute to the best of their ability. And if you're going to give a slight little crevice of hope or any type of things like that to a team or a coach, it's not Dan Hurley. Like you said,

Evan, like you can't kill that man. He's a cockroach. And I mean that in a loving term. He's a winning cockroach. They are not going to go away ever, ever, ever, ever. And I thought you saw that in this basketball game and they had the shot. You gave him one little shot and Braylon Mullins to his credit knocked it down and it was a crazy, crazy moment.

Evan (08:29)
Before we get to the Duke side of this, I do want to just talk a little bit more about Terris Reed, who has been an absolute monster for UConn in this tournament. He has been one of the best transfer success stories, you know, over a two season span. UConn has had so many of those guys who they've gotten, who have been ⁓ key to their championship pedigree that they've had in previous title winning seasons under Hurley. And Terris Reed has been that guy for UConn this year. You mentioned it. He had 26 points, nine rebounds.

four blocks, three assists and two steals in this game. And in the first half when nothing else was happening for Yukon, he was single-handedly keeping them in it. And we look on the course of this whole tournament, he was basically the reason they beat Furman in the first round, 31 points, 27 rebounds, like one of the greatest all-time performances you're ever gonna see in a tournament game. He was solid against UCLA, had a double-double, and then against Michigan State, 20 points, five rebounds, four assists. He's contributing not just in the scoring but just

overall domination and he is able to will himself to be whatever Yukon needs and in this game his consistency across an entire 40 minutes is the only reason Yukon was even alive in this game. What have you thought about about Terence Reed and kind of you know how he sticks up against he's gonna be you know not he's not was never in consideration for national player of the year anything like that but he is gonna be one of the most ⁓ tough to play players in this Final Four I would imagine.

Carter Elliott (09:54)
100 % because he is still you know in a day and age where big men want to step out and big men want to shoot threes. Terrence reads a classic 6'11 270 80 pound whatever he is man and you know that and I think he's done a great job of transforming his body. It's crazy because you know when I watched Terrence at Michigan

always loved him as a prospect, loved him as a player. mean, he was looking at Michigan State when he was coming out of high school. was a big fan of his. He struck me as a Michigan State level big that would develop and become really good. And to his credit, I think he's flipped the narrative on what he is as a basketball player.

And it's truly special. It's a cool thing about college basketball. You can flip the narrative on what you are as a player by just improving, keeping your head down, making great decisions, making a decision like going to play for Dan Hurley, I think was one of the best decisions he's ever made. And it's proven dividends right now to the point where like, I never thought in my wildest days that I'd be like, yeah, Terris Reed is the best player or is the best player right now on a final four team.

Like I think Carabin has been the best player on this team throughout the year, but like right now, Terris reads a top five player in the NCAA tournament. That's nuts to think about. And he's in the Final Four. And I say this all the time when I talk about like post play. You take it as a level of disrespect when someone thinks they can guard you one on one in the post.

They like that's, that's like, you don't think that I can go score. And that's what they did in this game and credit the Dan Hurley in Yukon. They always run great sets. You know that Evan. They did a great job of just making sure that they got Terrence the ball. And.

Duke's like, you know what, I'm gonna check Terrence one-on-one with Malik Brown or whatever big we have or Patton and Gagba and we're gonna kind of rock with that and see how that works. Did not work. Terrence Reed was too big, too strong. And to his credit, he's just a very tough, tough player to stop. You don't really see players that big that can have the feet that he does and finish like he does. So it was a special performance.

Evan (11:56)
All right, on the Duke side of this, the big storyline obviously is that Duke has blown another lead again. It's a weird thing because Duke doesn't really lose that often. Like, it's not like they have 10 losses in the last calendar year. They only have four going back to the Houston loss in the Final Four last year around this time of year. But every single one of those losses has been a blown lead situation. So they were up 19. This is the worst one.

19 against Yukon in the Elite 8, but even this season they were up by 13 against North Carolina. lost they were up by 17 against a a You know a not full strength Texas Tech team they lost and then obviously in the Final Four last year against Houston They were up by 14 and lost There's not a lot to critique overall about this Duke team or about what John Shire is doing because of the level of success that they've had But if you're to nitpick one thing it is absolutely this What is kind of your take on this whole narrative around?

Duke Bowling Leagues, do you think this is just kind of a lucky aberration? Do you think this is something that's a coaching issue or something that you would expect to continue? Like, what are your thoughts on this whole thing?

Carter Elliott (13:04)
So here's the thing, I think that it's, before this game, I was just like, you know what, that's what you wanna pick at with Coach Shire, like, okay, go ahead and do that. Also, this is a guy who, I don't know what the exact count is on it, but like in the last two years, he's lost like six total basketball games. So the worst thing that is happening is that in the moment, like things get tight and there's so many other things, like also John Shire's not on the court. Now,

He's not, he doesn't get off easy, right? He does play a portion of this and it's happened enough times where it's kind of like hard to shake that narrative. But all it takes is, I think this happens to other college basketball coaches. There was a narrative that Brad Underwood couldn't make it past the second weekend or never make a final four. He's in a final four. Tommy Lloyd also like there's also, there's narratives about a bunch of coaches until you just debunk them. Now Shire I think is gonna do that eventually, but.

Evan (13:46)
Tommy Lloyd, same thing.

Carter Elliott (13:57)
It is hard not to kind of give them that that label given, you know, the the samples that you do have of it happening. And it was a lot of different things in this one. think that in the second half, the offense got very stagnant. I mean, they put up 44 in the first half, only 28 in the second half. They have 13 turnovers while you can only have five turnovers. And I feel like a lot of those turnovers came in big moments. They got tight. And then obviously at the end of the game, you know, if you want to break down what happened on that play exactly, you know, I look at Isaiah Evans, who's like the best

free throw shooter on the team and he's just the furthest away from the ball you could possibly get. Also like Braylon Mullins hit a low go three. That's kind of what it is. If he misses that shot, no one's really even talking about this whatsoever. But also that's basketball. So that's what happens. But yeah, I think it's fair that he is kind of being labeled as this right now, whatever word you want to use associated with it, that he's kind of blowing these leads. But like I said, you can flip that narrative, just stop doing it.

Evan (14:57)
Yeah, I think ultimately it is a fair critique because that is the biggest criticism you could have of what's gone wrong quote unquote for them not to have won national titles at this point. But it is a relatively small nitpick in the in the conversation of how good this team's been. And it's not like we questioned this team coming into the game of are these guys winners? They've shown throughout the course of the season that they absolutely are. I do think there's a little bit of like it's unlucky that this just happens to be the way that you would lose these four games. You could

you know, rerun these games a different way and they could lose but have only had lead by five at one point or something. But at the same time, you compare what Duke did in this game to what Michigan did earlier in the day on Sunday, amassing a big lead. It felt very similar to me in terms of watching the first half of both of these games being like, here goes the one seed, they're running away with this. And then Michigan just completely stomps on the throat of Tennessee as they have done all year long. They don't want to win by five.

or 10 or 15, they went in by 30. And that's not what Duke did in this game. And I think there is a marked difference between Duke and Michigan, at least in that respect, of seeing what Michigan has done in these types of scenarios this year, where it's not even been remotely close. And that's not been something Duke has been able to pull off. I will say this is a tough way for Cameron Boozer's season to end. One of the greatest seasons that we've seen, especially for a freshman in college basketball. On my site,

In terms of measuring his value to Duke in the context of the season according to Bayesian performance rating, he finishes the season with the highest BPR of any player going back to 2009. That's slightly better than Zach Eady. Obviously there are players who have played in college who have been more skilled than him, but his effectiveness this year was unmatched. And I do think it is unfortunate that he's not going to have several more games in this tournament. ⁓ Cause he certainly is a winner and that was a tough part for sure.

Carter Elliott (16:49)
Yeah, I mean, look, I don't think it's, and it's tough because that's like two straight years that John Shire has had a national player of the year. Cause I'm pretty sure Cameron Boozer is going to win that this year. And they both end in devastating fashion. Like, and I guess this one's even more devastating because you blow a lead to go to the final four. this, like it feels wrong.

with this Duke team even not being in a Final Four, given how good they were and how dominant they were all year. But that's why they play the tournament. That's why it happens the way it does. It doesn't always end in fairy tales and things like that. But yeah, I'll remember Kam Buzer as one of the more dominant college basketball players of all time. But then again, with that, I remember how Cooper Flags career ended. And I'm gonna have to remember that Kam Buzer's career ended by blowing a 19 point lead.

losing in the fashion they lost.

Evan (17:45)
Yeah, and Zion Williamson's time at Duke ended pretty much in the exact same way, losing the Elite Eight.

Carter Elliott (17:49)
a

Kenny Goins three pointer to send that team home. It's ridiculous.

Evan (17:52)
Yeah.

Yeah, all right. So the other team that that you come will be facing here is Illinois and I want to spend some time on them Not as much to talk about in the sense of there is not the dramatics in either of their sweet 16 or lead eight games Illinois just looked so solid from start to finish in this region I I felt like they looked like the one seed in this group In terms of how they performed through these four games. They win by 71 to 59 against Iowa pulling away in the second half

Keaton Wogler obviously is kind of the story of not just their run to a final four, but kind of this whole season. In this particular game, 25 points, eight of 17 from the field, seven of seven from the line. He has been one of the most clutch free throw shooters, I think, because he gets to the line a lot, especially when opponents are trying to, you know, kind of keep the game close late. Just two turnovers in this game. Obviously a lot of other players on this Illinois team who deserve credit as well, but Keaton Wogler has been fantastic.

I can't wait to watch him play in the brightest lights in the Final Four. Just your overall thoughts on this Illinois team and Keaton Wogler in particular and how they've gotten it done here.

Carter Elliott (18:58)
Yeah, so I think this Illinois team to me has flipped the switch in the NCAA tournament. was a doubter of Illinois coming into this NCAA tournament. Like I love the draw for the first two games, but I was like, have a large sample size of this team not being able to defend well enough to make a Final Four. And to their credit, they have defended a lot better.

in this tournament and also guys are just stepping up. think Andres Dorjkovic has really stepped up in his role off the bench, which has helped this team. And they're also just very singular in what they, cause the offense is still always there. Now I think the defense is matching up with it. They shoot, they have great positional size. Keane Wagler is an NBA player and

It's tough to play against teams where everyone can pass. Like I was watching that Houston game and at times I felt like Jojo Tugler and Chris Sinek were like looking around like these bigs can really pass. Like they're hitting the pocket pass. Big T's kicking out the guys. Mirkovic is kicking out the guys. When you have that level of offensive firepower that they have and they're playing defense and they're big and they rebound extremely well, they're always attacking the offensive glass. It's a really tough check. And I think, you know what, for the people

who always love to talk about, you I love Illinois ceiling. I love Illinois ceiling no matter what. I think you're seeing what it could be when they lock in on the defensive end and it makes it, it makes them a very scary team. And I think it's what led them to make in the final four.

Evan (20:27)
Yeah, they've been markedly improved defensively in this tournament. They came in as being arguably the best offense in the sport. You could throw them in that conversation with Purdue coming into the tournament. It was the defense, especially against VCU and Houston, that really willed them across the line. The offense was a bit more kind of at their normal level against Iowa there. But that is a scary development for UConn and for the other teams in this Final Four of highest ceiling offensive team in the country right now left in this tournament. The defense has been

vastly improving and that's part of why they're in this spot here. You mentioned Sojakovic. He has had moments in the season where he's kind been up and down and certainly kind of in January to February, there's a reason that he was kind of coming off the bench or whatever, but he has turned into maybe the biggest X factor on this team in playing his role to perfection coming off the bench and just being dominant both as a defender, as a slasher.

Being just really a really efficient piece for this team He had 17 points in this game against Iowa seven of nine from the field five rebounds and just when you watch the team He his play really sticks out as being kind of one-of-one He's been awesome and then obviously David Mirkovic has been incredible for them all year and how could you not love this guy? They just have so many when I think about Facing Illinois as a team you just look across the lineup and their rotation and there are just so many dudes who are athletic lengthy

can hurt you in such a variety of ways, it really doesn't feel like they have any weak points here.

Carter Elliott (21:57)
Yeah, and it's a scary test to go up against. That's really what it is. These guys are big, they can pass, they're skilled, they're point guards, a 6'6 NBA player. ⁓ Dobin Mirkovic is gonna possibly, I think he's coming back for year two in Illinois, and he'd be on first team All-American list for me next year. That's the type of talent they have on this team, and Brad Underwood and his staff are kinda hitting on all cylinders now. So yeah, it's what makes them really, really dangerous, and also they're doing the classic thing where

they're actually hitting at the right time. Like Brad Underwood, March teams usually do the opposite. They peak in the Big Ten tournament or like end of the Big Ten regular season and then they kind of flame out in the national tournament. Now they're peaking. There's a lot of guys peaking. You brought up Stojakovic and Wagler had a rough stretch at the end of the Big Ten season, like a freshman wall. We don't even remember that now. He's back at the right time. That's really all that matters.

Evan (22:47)
Sure did.

Yeah, okay, just a word on Iowa because they're obviously not in the final four and it was not an expected run to even get to the Elite Eight as a nine seed. But Ben McCollum has doing his thing again that he does all the time of getting his groups to massively outperform what you would expect and their run to even just get to that final game and be close with Illinois for a good portion of that game was very impressive. Bennett Sturtz, his time at Iowa ⁓ ends, but.

He was just an absolute legend for that team. you know, looking at his run in this tournament, had 24 points in the last game, 20 versus Nebraska. And the big stat is when you look at the box score, every single game of this tournament, he's played 40 minutes. Now he might've caught a breather here for 10 seconds here or there, but he never ever sits down and he's just everything for this team. And so just such a credit to Ben McCollum and how he has been able to develop Sturts over the years, get everyone else to kind of fit around him. When you think about

Iowa going forward and specifically Ben McCollum going forward. Let's assume that he's not leaving for another job this off season. As someone who watches, you know, and cheers for another team in the big 10 and you're going to be facing up against Iowa in seasons to come. How much like, what is your prognosis on what Iowa can do going forward now that Ben McCollum has already done this in year one? Like are you, do you have fear about how good he can be and how he can continue to overachieve if you want to call it?

Carter Elliott (24:20)
Yeah, so like coming into this year, even like during this year, like I'll be pretty transparent. I just like wasn't the biggest Ben McCollum guy, right? I just thought that the style of basketball, though effective, just like really not for me, not my cup of tea is how I kind of label it. And, you know, given the fact that, you know, his first year in the Big Ten, you know, the first game Michigan State played against Iowa, they kind of welcomed him to the Brezen Center, welcomed him to the Big Ten, beat him by 20. They really, really struggled.

You know, the scary part about it is, here's what shifted for me. You give this Ben McCollum team more talent. That's when I get scared. That's when I get scared. Because right now they have some pieces, like, Ben is third, obviously he's gone, but like that's an all American level player. But even Ben McCollum himself, like came away from this game. He's like, I'm gonna need a center. Like I did not have a center in this game. And if I'm gonna play in the big tent, and that's a big...

Big factor, like you look at how successful Dusty May was in his second year. He like came in with the two bigs with Danny Wolf and Black Golden. And he's like, this works. I'm gonna go get two more talented bigs just like that. Look at what Indiana's doing. Darren DeVries struggled in year one.

What's he gonna do in year two to adjust? So, you know, with Ben McCollum, I don't think you can argue what he is as a basketball coach or argue what he is in March. Like he might have like some March wizardry stuffed in. This run was really special, what he did with Iowa. But I think the next key step for him is are you gonna have the talent?

to win the Big Ten, or you gonna have the talent to maybe go further in the tournament? So I'll just be interested to see that, because he's been a very loyal guy to his guys, getting his type of guys, and basically taking the Northwest Missouri State guys, the Drake, and then taking the Drake guys to the next stop. So I just wanna see what kind of talent he gets for this Iowa team moving forward. And if he does get talent, I would be scared, yeah.

Evan (26:13)
Yeah, I agree with you. think if he can raise the talent level that he has, I would continue to expect him to get better results out of his group than what they are on paper. And so I do think that will be interesting to watch going forward. OK, let's preview this Yukon versus Illinois game. This is going to be just an incredible matchup in a lot of different angles. ⁓ Last I checked, think Illinois was favored in this game by two. If you look at evanmia.com, I have Illinois favored by just 0.3 points. So this is basically a toss up game.

Now, UConn and Illinois have already played once this season. They played November 28th. That was obviously a very long time ago. Both of these teams are very different. UConn won that game 74 to 61. When you look at the box score, it's like Keaton Wogler was not the Keaton Wogler that we know he is now. He only played 14 minutes. Mihailo Petrovic was still getting more minutes than him at that point. It was Braylon Mullen's first game of the entire season. So I don't know if you can take away too much from that, but UConn did win that game.

And for me, if I'm looking at one thing in this matchup that's my sort of like, here's what I think could be ⁓ worth monitoring. It is how both of these teams on the course of the season have played up to a competition. It's something that I talk about a lot. I measure it at evanmia.com using the opponent strength adjustment measurement here of basically how much better do teams play against the elite teams on their schedule versus the weak teams. UConn has been consistently really great at raising their performance level against the best teams.

We saw that against Duke, obviously against Michigan State. They're six and three this season against top 20 opponents at EvanMia.com. They've lost to Arizona, but they have wins against Duke, Florida, Illinois. All those teams are in the top six. On the flip side, Illinois has had some big wins, but that's not been an area that they've been able to excel this season. They have a negative opponent strength adjustment in that they play worse typically than their normal level against the best teams. They're four and seven against top 20 opponents.

that you look at some of the losses in that group, Michigan, Yukon obviously, Michigan State, Alabama, Nebraska, they lost to Wisconsin twice. So they just don't have quite as proven a track record of raising their performance level. I still have them favored barely in this game for a reason, but I do think that that is a variable worth watching. What are some other things that kind of stick out about this matchup for you that you'll think would be pretty key on who's gonna win this one?

Carter Elliott (28:33)
Yeah, so I'm actually completely throwing away that first matchup for both teams just because it's just so different. It truly is so different that, you know, I think both teams are much better than they were and just look much different and even stylistically are doing things a little bit differently. I think at the start of this year,

Dan Hurley was approaching this like I'm going to be like a top 10 offense in the country, top five offense, and then I'll try to get the defense to get there. I mean, Brad Underwood was just figuring out his group of new guys that he's brought together. They still probably barely knew each other at that point. They're just trying to figure some things out. And they didn't know that Keaton Wagler was really that level of Keaton Wagler at that point. you know, for me, there's just so many different even underlie stories in this one, like

Brad Underwood finally makes a Final Four and he's staring down Dan Hurley. You gotta slay one more demon here. Like Dan Hurley is who had that 30-0 run on you. Dan Hurley is a guy that was a back-to-back national champion two years ago, one of the best coaches in the sport. And you know, there's gonna be matches with Big T, with Tomislav guarding Terris Reed down low. That's something to look at. This UConn team has been really good defensively, like more so than previous UConn teams. And they're going up against

Brad Underwood a Tyler Underwood offense that's gonna be a very interesting to see how it plays out So yeah, I mean, you know you you have this as like basically a toss-up type basketball game I think it's gonna feel like that. I think it's gonna be a a Game where little things matter. It's gonna be very small margin for error Both these teams want to play extremely slow as well So I think it's gonna be slow executing the half court and you know, it's what you kind of we're get as well You know you can't shot one for 18 five for 20

23 overall from 3 but we're 1 for 18 at a certain point. You do have to make shots to win this game I would say because Illinois does not foul and Illinois does not turn the basketball over. So you're not really going to get 13 turnovers I think from an Illinois team like you did for Duke. So it's going to be a really intriguing matchup to watch a fun one I would say.

Evan (30:39)
Yeah, I do think if Yukon's shooting struggles continue, it'll be very difficult to beat Illinois, especially since that's something they often do really well. But it would also not surprise me if Yukon makes their first four threes in this game, and it's just kind of a reversion back to what we expect from them in that department, just kind of because they've been so unlucky in that area, if you want to call it that. I do think I love the fact of this that the Illinois' best player, they obviously have a lot of good players, but their best player is a freshman point guard in Keaton Wogler.

UConn's best player is a veteran center in Terrace-Read. The way that they're gonna kind of focus their offenses around those players is gonna be very different. And I think the way the, it's not completely obvious to me like what each other team is gonna throw at those players to slow them down. So I think how those star players play is gonna make a difference. Last question on this for you, when you look at the outside of the star players, the depth of these rosters, right? The role players.

Which roster do you trust more to get more production, especially if some of the star players are struggling when you look at both of these teams? Which teams do you think have a better set of overall players that you're gonna trust to deliver in this Final Four game?

Carter Elliott (31:49)
man, you know what? I think I'd go Illinois. I think I'd go Illinois with what they obviously they got Stojakovic coming off the bench. ⁓ You know, I think Ben Hun Rickhouse is a very underrated player off the bench as well. ⁓ Maybe not the flashiest box score level talent or anything like that, but like he does contribute big, big Z, Tomislav's brother.

is an absolute wild card. Who knows what he could be on the floor, but he's a very talented player. They're bringing out the floor. You know, I think Yukon in this run has just been leaning heavily on Caravan and Terrace. Like, get me there and supplement it. Now, with that said, Malachi Smith was awesome last game.

for this team and they've been waiting to get that for a while. And Demery's been a little bit banged up and, know, Jayden Ross is a guy that I think has stepped up with solo ball kind of being a little bit off as well. But I still think overall you get the slight advantage to Illinois in that field.

Evan (32:27)
Sure was.

Yeah, I think I agree with you. think both these teams have really talented rosters, but I do think that Illinois has a slight edge there. It's gonna be a great matchup no matter what. Obviously the winner of this game will play Michigan and Arizona, which is gonna be an absolute fight as well. So no matter what, we're gonna have a great ending to this. Well, Carl, I appreciate you coming on the pod today and sharing your thoughts on all of these games and previewing these matchups. And I will see you just in a few days in Indianapolis as we kind of.

carry things into this awesome set of Final Four games that we have. So I appreciate you coming on today.

Carter Elliott (33:12)
Thanks for having me on, man. I'll see you there.

Evan (33:14)
Thank you to Carter Elliott. You can check out all of Carter's work on the Sleepers Media YouTube channel. I previously had his co-host, Greg Waddell on. Carter joins the show today. I love both those guys. They're the best. And I think Sleepers does a really, really good job of just a ton, a ton of video content, recapping games, previewing games, and all sorts of stuff in between. They do a great job with portal stuff as well. So be sure to go check out all of Carter's work over on the Sleepers Media YouTube channel.

Evan (33:44)
Okay, we are now going to turn our attention to the other two teams in this Final Four, Michigan and Arizona. And here's what we will do. I'm going to start with Arizona before AntWrite joins me here in a little bit to talk more about the Michigan side of things and preview their upcoming semi-final game. Arizona gets to the Final Four off of a, one of the most convincing runs to a Final Four that you will see, obviously rivaled by what Michigan is doing, ⁓ you know, on the other side of this bracket here, but Arizona beats

Purdue 79-64. This game was in doubt early. Arizona was down seven points at halftime. Braden Smith was cooking seven for 14 from three for the Boilermakers in the first half. Arizona completely flipped the script in the second half as they have done all season. They are so, so clutch towards the end of games in second half when it really matters. Purdue was just one of eight in the second half from three. So not only were they a lot less efficient, they just couldn't get as many good looks from three.

Braden Smith, who had a great first half, had zero made field goals in the second half. And on the Arizona side of things, it just became this overwhelming force of everyone just asserting their will against Purdue. And that is just what Arizona has done all season long. Co-opete has not necessarily been the best player every single game for Arizona. It's because they have so many different players who step up. But in this game, in this context, Co-opete,

20 points, seven rebounds, three assists. He was amazing. Ivan Karchenkoff has been increasingly more important as the season that's going along. It's been well cataloged, his defensive ability, but he was great offensively in this game and just kind of took Purdue to the woodshed. 18 points on seven of 11 from the field, very efficient. Eight rebounds for Karchenkoff as well. The back court of Braden Burys and Jaden Bradley, who I think that's about his...

It typifies a final four backcourt as you will see in terms of their poise and confidence there. 28 points combined between the two of them. And listen, Arizona, along with Michigan, has the probably the best roster up and down in the sport in terms of their depth. Their bench didn't really even need to do that much in this game. If you look at the box score here, Awaka played 11 minutes. He was in foul trouble. Anthony Delorceau played nine minutes, just seven total bench points in this game.

Not really a problem, but I think you could look up in one of these games that they'll have this weekend and see the bench score 25 points. I think that's how good they are. And so they just have so many different pieces and options. And that was just on full display against Purdue. And you go back a game to Arkansas, ⁓ 109 points. Arizona hangs on Arkansas. 21 point win over Arkansas. They had six players in that game with 14 or more points. That's astounding. Now, Arkansas, obviously not a great defensive team.

And certainly their test upcoming against Michigan will really challenge them on that side of the ball. But Arizona in this game against Arkansas scored 1.49 points per possession in non garbage time. So while the outcome was still in doubt, that is the highest offensive efficiency they've had this entire season when you exclude the garbage time numbers. And that came against Arkansas. This wasn't against one of their cupcake matches in the non con. This was against Arkansas. So.

that the offense is clicking at the right time of year. And this is my favorite stat on Arizona and points to the consistency that they have. When you look at every single team remaining in this field, and you look at every single game they have played, and the number of possessions that are played in the game when the outcome is still in doubt, as in the lead is still up for debate who could win the game, and there's a way I quantify that at FNBA.com.

Arizona has only lost twice this season and in both of those losses they went down to the final possession So they were never killed early in a game There are zero possessions played the entire Arizona season Where they have been on the losing end and the outcome has already been decided before the final whistle No other team in the final four can boast that ⁓ Michigan I think is next with six possessions played this season in

Garbage time when they were already on the losing end and the outcome was already decided those six possessions came Against Purdue when Michigan lost to them in the Big Ten title game Arizona it's never been the case So even when they lose it you have to go all the way to the final buzzer to beat them That speaks to me of the consistency of this team I've been harping on this as my favorite Arizona characteristic all season They are now second in the country in game to game consistency getting to a final four

takes being consistently excellent. The highs for this Arizona group are maybe not quite as high as Michigan, but the floor is better than anyone in the country, no question. And so I just really don't see a scenario where Arizona could lose a semifinal game against Michigan or a title game against either Yukon or Illinois by more than seven or eight points. It could happen obviously, but I think they're about as...

⁓ blowout proof as any team and obviously on the flip end they can easily apply that to whoever they want. So that I love that stat for them. And then last thing I'll mention kind of on comparing Arizona and Michigan before we jump more in the Michigan side of things here. Kill shots. Arizona and Michigan have been kind of the best two teams all season long, both in terms of being able to go on scoring runs and not giving them up. When you look at the number of 10-0 runs, which is what I call a kill shot per game,

On the season, Michigan averages 1.08, Arizona 0.92. So about one average kill shot per game for both of these teams. On the flip side, I think this is where it's really astounding. Arizona has only allowed two kill shots all season. Michigan has only allowed three. For Arizona, those two kill shots came against Norfolk State.

a game they won by 37 that the Norfolk State kill shot came when the outcome was already over. Like pretty much not important. The other kill shot, the only one they actually had in a meaningful game was against Houston in the big 12 title game. Houston cut the deficit from 15 to one. So Arizona allowed them back in the game, but it was not to take a lead. Arizona ends up winning that game and overcoming that 10-0 run.

So when you look on the fact that they've only allowed, had one single game, a meaningful game this season when they've allowed a kill shot, and on the flip side, Arizona has had 21 separate games where they've had a 10-0 run at least one of those. That makes it very likely to me that if one of these teams can get a kill shot, that could be the deciding factor because they rarely ever give them up, but they're very prolific at doing that. Just for context on the Michigan side of things, they've had 23 separate games with a kill shot.

And those three kill shots that Michigan has conceded against them were against Maryland, first half of that game, when it was still in doubt, Michigan ends up winning. Northwestern took a 12 point lead in the first half off the back of a tenno run. Michigan ends up winning that game. And then against Penn State, Michigan had a 15 point lead. Penn State cut it to three. That was a close one in the end, but Michigan also won that game. So they have both not only don't give up many runs, but they overcome those when they happen more often than not. So.

Watch for that in ⁓ the clash between Michigan and Arizona. I cannot believe that we are getting this matchup on this stage. And it's not a guarantee the winner of this game will win the title, but it does feel like kind of the de facto national title game. Okay, let's move to the Michigan side of things and talk about their path to a Final Four. And with me to do that is the great Ant Wright, who knows this Michigan team very well because he was a former Michigan player himself.

Both Michigan and Arizona have looked so dominant on their way to the Final Four, each doing it in their own way.

Evan (41:39)
On the Michigan side of things, if you just kind of look at the matchups here,

21 point win against Howard 23 points against st. Louis 90 to 77 against Bama but but they had more of a convincing win than that and then really to cap it off on Sunday 95 to 62 Against Tennessee they were a comfortable favorite in this game, but obviously the way that they just completely Dismantled Tennessee was extremely impressive and how impressed have you been by Michigan in this tournament? And did you expect for?

this to be a more competitive game on Saturday against Tennessee or did you think Michigan was going to roll like they did?

Ant Wright (42:14)
March is interesting, right? You see these matchups and you're just like, should Michigan win? Yeah, they should win what 98 out of 100 times you would think. And then you see the game going and then you're like,

not gonna happen today for Tennessee. They just weren't shooting the ball well enough. ⁓ And from a physical standpoint, the officials.

the way that they were calling the game, we're not going to let Tennessee just play football. So if you're not going to be able to really be physical with Michigan, especially on the interior, and you're not going to score the ball, it's going to be a very, very long day for you. I mean, the Howard game was interesting because Howard made like a whole bunch of threes and, you know, Michigan was still in very much control of that game. But I think from the round of 32,

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, ⁓ I feel Yaxle has kind of taken his game up a notch. He's been more methodical this season, but man, since St. Louis, he's... We saw flashes of him being this aggressive throughout the year, but he hasn't needed to. And I think that's what's so impressive about his game. And he was still unselfish.

And I feel like he was. Head and shoulders over everyone on the court.

Evan (43:30)
I'm glad that you started with Yaxle because he has been the dominant force that Michigan has. I don't know if they've needed it, but they certainly have it. And I think for a team like Michigan, you could say the same thing about Arizona. They both just have such depth from every single position on the floor, everyone they roll out, but Yaxle has really separated himself in kind of a way of being like, hey, I am the guy on this team. So just kind of looking over his tournament here.

27 points in this game against Tennessee 10 of 19 from the field 7 rebounds 4 assists 2 blocks 0 turnovers as you mentioned Against Bama 23 points 12 rebounds 7 assists against st. Louis 25 points 6 rebounds 2 assists He has been just stepping up to be kind of the the thing that really puts the cherry on top for this team and Every Michigan player talks about it. Yaxle is a very unselfish player. He is about the team first He doesn't have to go get his own

But just the way that these games have been flowing, that's just kind of how it's happened and he has absolutely taken advantage of that. And just big picture what he has accomplished on this season. I think there was an argument that, you outside of Cameron Boozer, who I think has been the best player this season, I've been on record multiple times talking about how he stacks up historically. He's been had one of the best seasons ever. I think in terms of the value they bring to their team, I think Yaxle is the second most important player.

Ant Wright (44:39)
Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

Evan (44:51)
in the nation this year, that's certainly where he evaluates according to my player metric Bayesian performance rating right behind Yaxle Lendeborg. so, you know, Michigan does not profile themselves as a team that needs a superstar every single game, but Yaxle when needed, absolutely steps up into that. And so I've been super impressed. I think he is going to be a key against Arizona. ⁓ You know, what do you think? How do think he's going to fare against Arizona? Obviously one of the toughest teams that they'll play all season.

Ant Wright (45:17)
I made a semi-joke, but very serious. I'm like, this is like Big Ten's LeBron. Just being able to just go out there and kind of do whatever he wants, not really be rattled by anyone. And if he wants to pass more, he'll pass more. If he wants to shoot more, he'll shoot more. He'll drive.

Evan (45:35)
Something I think a big storyline for this Arizona matchup for Michigan is the clash of these two teams that both love to be dominant inside and at the rim, both offensively and defensively. For Michigan, it's Mara, it's Maurez Johnson. For Arizona, it's Mateus Krivas, Tobia Wacha, Koa Peet. It's just an absolute titan battle of these front courts. And I think, ⁓ I would be curious what you think about this.

know, foul trouble, I think is often overstated sometimes as a narrative of like, I'm worried about this, you foul trouble. But when you look at both from a Michigan angle, like a day, a Di Mara who was in foul trouble in this last game for four fouls, only 18 minutes against a Tennessee team that is really tough on the interior Arizona is that and more that could be a thing again in this game, but also could equally be a risk on the other side. Like if Crevasse, who is, I think, you know, with Mara, probably the

Ant Wright (46:14)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (46:29)
the best two rim protectors you're gonna see in college basketball this year, probably by far. ⁓ If either one of them gets in foul trouble, it really changes the calculus of this game. so that's something that I'm monitoring. Do you think that will be a factor in this game in terms of how those bigs match up and if one can kind of have a ⁓ advantage over the other in terms of getting the other in foul trouble?

Ant Wright (46:49)
It could be. mean, remember Michigan Duke? Like how big was it that Mara played five minutes in the first half? I think that was really the game, honestly.

Evan (46:57)
Yeah.

Ant Wright (46:59)
It happened again against Tennessee five minutes two fouls one was a really bad call, but It was still called a foul. You can't just go back and undo it and dusty Gambled a bit It was around 16 to 16 Dusty puts more back in the game

and then they do one of the CC Evan Myers. They hit him with the kill shot, hit him with a half husky, which is 15-0, hit him with the avalanche, which is 20-0. I mean, that was sparked because he put Mara back in the game who was rim protecting and he was rebounding at a high level. And when you can't score, you gotta get stuff in the paint. Michigan just was not allowing that to happen.

Maura is going to be so integral in this basketball game. can't get into foul trouble. Maura has got to have a real good game. ⁓ when they start to substitute and they start getting yaks at the floor, ⁓ I am interested to see how Arizona responds to it.

So yeah, man, gonna need more to play at a very high level. But just as a basketball fan, man, we were very lucky for this match up here and that we get it at some point. It could have been a final four. It could have been a natural title game. I'm just glad that we got to see these two teams go up against each other.

Evan (48:22)
Yeah, I think this is for me, one of the most anticipated Final Four matchups that we're gonna have in years. We've had plenty of situations where I think last year going into the tournament, Duke and Auburn had been the best two teams all year. Neither of them even made it to the title game to play each other. In this matchup, no matter who wins and who ends up being our champion, we're gonna have them battle it out. And for me, think fans of both of these teams have kind of...

been chirping at each other ever since they both kind of went deep into the season undefeated saying that they were better. And it's been back and forth all year. And now we get this matchup to decide it. I'm so pumped for it. I really could see both of this, this matchup going ⁓ either direction. No question. I think they're both teams do a lot of the same things really well. ⁓ They both have been absolutely elite at playing up against elite competition this year. They play their best basketball in the biggest spotlight. So you know that both of these teams are going to show up and play well.

They both play relatively quickly, so it should be a pretty up and down game, a very high scoring game, which will be a lot of fun to watch. As we've talked about, both of these teams have incredibly deep rosters. They have great star players.

Yeah, I think both of these teams have been ⁓ comfortably in the top tier all season long.

I think Michigan has the slightly better offense. I think the defenses are fairly comparable. ⁓ I think Michigan is going to have the best player in this game, in Yaxle-Lendiborg. One thing that I do think that is in Arizona's favor here is I think that Arizona has been the more consistent team on the course of the season in terms of their game to game consistency. don't really have massive, massive highs.

They don't really have lows at all. They're very consistently excellent.

Ant Wright (50:00)
So for me, Michigan, I think their ceilings the higher like if both teams play to their best, Michigan is going to be the better team, in my opinion, but

Evan (50:07)
Yes.

Ant Wright (50:11)
Michigan doesn't always maximize their can. You know what mean? Like even though their cans a bit bigger, they don't always fill it up. While Arizona gets really close every single game to filling up their entire can. So I think that's, I think that's where I'm at. And I think where, you like you, you you hit the nail on the head, like just they've been a consistent

force. I would say, you know, Michigan's a buzzsaw ⁓ and Arizona's an axe where sometimes the buzzsaw can malfunction a little bit, but that axe is just going to keep swinging. You know what I mean? And all it comes down to who who's trying to get that tree down the fastest.

I'm just so glad this game is happening. Just so happy. So glad it's happening.

Evan (50:59)
It's gonna be amazing. I cannot wait. It's

gonna be an awesome, awesome matchup. I really appreciate your thoughts on this massive game that we've got queued up for Saturday. I can't wait for it. I know it's gonna be great. I hope you enjoy watching the Final Four, and thank you so much for joining me on the show today.

Ant Wright (51:14)
I

appreciate you man,

Evan (51:16)
Thank you to Ant Wright for joining me today for a little bit. You can find all of his stuff on Twitter at It's Ant Wright. He does a lot of great college basketball and NBA draft stuff content over there, so please go check it out. A few more thoughts from me on this Michigan, Arizona gargantuan clash that we're gonna have on Saturday. I just cannot believe that we get the privilege of having this game and that I'll get to be in Lucas Oil Stadium for this. As I mentioned before,

The game prediction I have for this game has Michigan favored slightly. I have Michigan by about three and a half points. That gives Michigan about a 62 % chance of winning this game. I think anecdotally most people would feel this is pretty much a 50-50 game and realistically, I think this game could go either direction, no question. There's just not really a lot to separate these two teams. As I mentioned before, Yaxel Lindeborg I think is going to be the best, most valuable player in this game. That certainly bears out according to the analytics on my site.

Yaksa Lendeborg's BPR is 13.8. The next highest BPR for either team is at 9.6. So there's a little bit of a gap there. But after that, if you look at the strength of both of these teams, they're both obviously very strong. I think Arizona does have a slight edge as you get down to the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh best guy. I mean, my goodness. Just looking at this rotation for Arizona, you've got Braden Bury's, Mateus Krivus, Jaden Bradley, Koa Peet, Toby Awaka, Ivan Karchenkoff.

All six of those players would be high caliber starters on any team in the nation and potentially star players and they play their role so well. Obviously, Dwayne Aristote and Anthony Del Orso are also very key for them as well. So I just think that Arizona's depth there is just so, so difficult to match. Michigan obviously has pieces as well, but I think I do give the depth advantage there slightly to Arizona. In terms of comparing these two teams,

and their strengths and weaknesses. Just some rankings here. Arizona has the seventh best offense in the country according to my site. Michigan third. On the defensive side, Arizona is second on defense. Michigan third. So Michigan has a slight offensive advantage. Arizona has a slight defensive advantage. Both of these teams are in the top 30 in true tempo, which is my measurement at evanmia.com for how quickly, how fast they play in terms of pace after adjusting for

who they've played and the level of competition and that sort of thing. So it's gonna be a very fast game, be a very relatively speaking efficient game. My predicted scores have these both teams around the 80 point mark. So it should be a really good scoring contest from that perspective. ⁓ There's just, I'm so, so thrilled that we get this matchup and it does feel like kind of the de facto national title game. Now realistically speaking,

I think this game could be such a bloodbath between two titans that the loser of this game having just one day of rest before they play in the national title game could have a little bit of an energy issue when they face the winner of Yukon in Illinois. Obviously that game will be a really tough one as well, but would not surprise me if it's difficult for the winner of this game to get too straight just because of how difficult and ⁓ crazy intense this matchup between Arizona and Michigan will be.

But either way, whoever wins this game will be for sure the ⁓ predicted winner overall from the tournament. If you look at the current March Madness tournament probabilities on my site with just those four teams remaining, Michigan is at a 45 % chance of winning the whole thing, Arizona at 28%, Illinois and Yukon at about 13%. So the winner of the Michigan Arizona game has a massive edge ⁓ in terms of cutting the nets down on Monday night.

All four of these teams more than talented enough and deserving to be national champions at the end of this. I cannot wait for these games. I cannot believe I'll have the privilege of being in the building for these. So I can't wait for this. It's going to be awesome. Last thing is our listener contest. I try and do one of these about once a month since I started the show for all of our faithful listeners so that you guys can get rewarded.

and get some free EvanMia.com merch gear which you can find for everyone else. There's a merch tab at EvanMia.com. It'll take you directly to the site. There's hats and t-shirts there. This week's listener contest. The way this is gonna work is in order to submit a, or to put a submission in, pick the player in the final four whose BPR, their player rating on my site, will improve the most between now

And next week's after the ⁓ weekend games are over and the season is concluded, pick the player who improved their rating most from now till next week. So for example, if you pick Braden Burys and his BPR improves more than every single other player in the Final Four, you would win the contest. So please send your submissions of which one single player from the Final Four you think will improve the most. You can do that either by emailing me at evanmiainfo at gml.com.

Or you can direct message me on Twitter or anywhere else that you follow me for your submission and I will announce the winner of the listener contest next on next week's Normally our shows are on Tuesday morning, but because the national title game is going to be Monday night, I will not be able to record an episode till probably Tuesday evening. So the show will come out next Wednesday morning to recap the final four national title game. So be sure to stick around for that.

As always, this is an ad-free show, so please support the show by giving us a five-star review on Apple or Spotify. If you listen on the podcast platforms, if you watch on YouTube, subscribe to the channel, like the video, comment, that really helps it kind of get boosted in the YouTube algorithm so more people can find it. That is super, super helpful. Thanks so much for listening, everyone. I cannot believe that we are...

Just days away from concluding this amazing, amazing college basketball season, it has been such a joy to cover this and I appreciate you all of you guys being here with me for it. It truly means a lot to me. I will see all of you guys next time once we have an official national champion. See you soon.