The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:03)
I have three college basketball teams that I am absurdly high on this season, which I will reveal in today's preseason bandwagon episode. Ryan Hammer is here with three of his own teams as well today. So without further ado, let's get to it.

Evan (00:32)
Hey everybody, welcome to the Evan Mia College Basketball Show. I'm your host, Evan Mia Kawa, and I'm really pumped about today's episode. We are calling this one the preseason bandwagon episode, and it's something that I would like to do every preseason going forward. Ryan Hammer is on deck with me here in a second, and basically, what we're gonna do in a few minutes is each of us have three different teams that we have picked out that we are absurdly high on this season, that we're gonna ride till the wheels fall off. We're gonna explain why.

In this episode, and why you also should be on board with these teams. Season is less than two weeks away at this point. So we are getting ever closer to the start of the season. So on today's show, we're gonna do the bandwagon stuff in just a second. We're also gonna talk a little bit about how much do preseason exhibition games matter? Do they matter a lot? Do they matter not a lot? What are our individual takes on those? And then later on the show, I'm also gonna talk a little bit about my new player projections model.

Which I just did some research on and put up on my blog. So we're going talk about that later on in the show. Before we go any further, I just launched a really awesome site upgrade for evanmia.com. For those of you who are using this regularly, like I have been wanting to do a big quality of life upgrade on the site for kind of years. I have bootstrapped all of this myself in terms of building this website over the years, but there have been some bottlenecks that have been hard to get past.

Most of that stuff is now all fixed. We have dark mode. There are individual page URLs that you can bookmark to go to specific pages, faster logins, the player the page load times are absurdly fast now. There is no more screen of death when you go away from the site and come back to it on mobile or on desktop. You're not gonna see that great inactive screen anymore. There's just a lot of stuff that a website should behave the way it should, and now it actually does at evanme.com.

And in addition, I'm starting to roll out some new features too. Like I have player skill badges for players who are elite in certain categories. So you can get a visual sense looking at their team page or their individual player profile, what they're good at. So there's a lot of stuff to check out. If you've not been on the site recently or like you need to start getting back into it ahead of the season, please go check out some of these changes. They're gonna

be really awesome. Okay, Ryan Hammer from the Blue Blooded Podcast is here with me today. Dot dot dot.

Evan (03:02)
Okay, Ryan Hammer from the Blue Blooded Podcast is here with me today. And as I've alluded to, we're doing something really fun today. And I think Ryan is kind of the perfect guest for this because your your enthusiasm for college basketball matches mine in terms of how much you love to hype up the teams that you're really excited about. So, what we're doing today is this is the bandwagon preseason exercise. And essentially what Ryan and I are both doing is we have both kind of decided ahead of time and thought about.

Picking each three teams that we are really excited about, hyped about, potentially more excited about than kind of public consensus. And I kind of put s a few little rules around this, just to kind of make it more interesting. So number one is that you have to pick a team you're really excited about, potentially higher than consensus on. You can't pick a preseason top five AP poll team, which just came out this week, just to kind of make it

More interesting.

And in general, trying to limit us both to one top 10 AP pull team and two top 25 teams in our list of three. But outside of that, it's kind of any criteria that you want. so before we start revealing these, and we'll each kind of take our turn, sort of explaining our team and our choices, and we'll have some commentary on it. Just any thoughts on you in general on like any specific trends that you were looking for specifically and identifying teams this year.

that you were excited about. just just kinda any thoughts on on any of that process for you.

Ryan Hammer (04:32)
sure. Appreciate having me back on, by the way. And I had to I had to rep the proper proper

Evan (04:36)
Yeah, he's repping theevonmia dot com. for those of you watching on YouTube, you'll see his shirt.

You can find on the merch store on my site, by the way. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Ryan Hammer (04:42)
What a plug. What a natural plug right there. I had

to prep come prepared, obviously. I saw it in my closet right away and I had to do it. no, seriously, it's it's good to see you again. I'm happy to be on here. It when you hit me about this, I was very excited and I thought about it initially a couple weeks ago when we first started thinking about it. But this week I sat down to think about the teams. Obviously, Florida, Duke, Illinois, those are my three teams. but I I like I wanted to not be a contrarian at all.

and try to force myself to be different. I wanted to pick teams that even if other people publicly have been on them a lot, the teams that like you said, higher than consensus, higher than the A people, higher than maybe analytical rankings together or just general kind of what I take away from what media and what fans are talking about on Twitter and whatnot, which I guess is con what consensus is. But I like

It's hard because you're you're very analytical based. I am too. Obviously you are a little more. But I also have like I need I need an eye test. I need a gut

Evan (05:38)
Mm-hmm.

Ryan Hammer (05:39)
feeling about a team that like I love watching them play and I trust the style they play in. You said before about like any certain styles of teams. I feel like two of my teams are kind of similar in that sense a little bit. but all three of them have differentiating factors for sure. But I need a little bit of fire on the team, ability to be physical, ability to be dogs a little bit, and and also different. Teams that are just different than

that have unique skill sets that a lot of other teams don't have that make me excited about their upside. And obviously when we get into our teams I'll share more about those. But I just needed I needed to feel some fire about the teams.

Evan (06:11)
Yeah, I think for me, like obviously I'm gonna base a lot of mine on like my analytical projections, but I also want it to be a team that like when I their first big game comes up, I'm like feel really excited to watch them. That I'm not like nervous

Ryan Hammer (06:21)
Mm. Mm-hmm.

Evan (06:23)
about like, I'm just gonna, this is gonna be really boring or whatever. I need to have some sort of confidence. And there's a few teams that I considered for this list that like have good things on paper that my model likes that I like.

I don't know if I can actually get behind it till I see some some results. So that certainly like eliminated a few teams for me. So

why don't we go ahead and start with my first team here? I'm gonna pick the highest ranked team of my three. And I am going with the St. John's Redstorm, which I have are they're 13th in the AP pool that came out this week. I have them ninth on my site at evanmiya.com 12th on offense, sixth on defense. That's second in the big east behind Yukon.

And actually, my site has them higher than the other some of the other analytics sites. I think Ken Pom has them at 23. Torvik has them at 18. I have them at nine. So that's a top 10 team that does assume that all of their pieces that they want to be eligible are eligible. And that was a hard part for me as well with this exercise, is figuring out much risk do I want to put in. Cause I'm my intent with this, by the way, for those of you who are regular listeners of the show, is this that these teams that I'm picking.

I'm gonna continue referencing that I am riding with, and I'm gonna try my best to like ride with them the whole season. Might be willing to like drop one of them in January, but kind of want to stick through it as much as possible. So, with that being said, I like want to pick teams that I feel relatively sure about their roster situation. But here is my argument for St. John's, and I think a lot of it has to do with Rick Pitino. So last year, St. John's, one of the things you can see on my site is preseason.

Roster strength ranking, just the the accumulation of players that they have. Where does it rank in the preseason? Kind of if any team or any coach were to take the home. Okay. So last year, St. John's had the 22nd best roster in the preseason and they finished the year 11th in my team rankings. They had a five seed. The year before that, they had the 23rd best roster, they finished eighth nationally. And the year before that, they had the 54th best roster and finished 21st, and they did not make the tournament.

But they certainly were, they sh probably should have been in based on the quality of their team. And so Rich or Pitino just systematically always seems to take the best of whatever he's got and making more out of it. And this year, they have the 12th best roster in the country, according to my preseason model. So that's better, miles better than what they've had on paper in some of these previous seasons. They're going to be defensively great again. They have five of the top 14 players.

In the big east. And I really like a lot of their the incoming pieces that they have. I think they have them as the second best incoming transfer portal class and overall portal activity in the entire country behind only Louisville. and if you look at some of their best players on this roster according to their projections, Tounde Yessoufou the transfer from Baylor, I had as the third best transfer in the portal. I think he's, you know, obviously different fit with St. John's, but I think he's gonna be great. Keyshawn Hall is another huge add

they have a lot of guys on this team who are gonna score a lot of points. They have three players on the roster inside the top two percent nationally in scoring volume. And then you've got Quinn Ellis, who is coming from Europe and is gonna be point guard for them. And I've got him as the best international prospect this season. And then, of course, like I think my last thing that really sells me on St. John's is I have Baba Carsane as the like seventh best guy on this roster.

And I think some people think he could be more like a top five or top ten like newcomer in the sport. So if that hits, that's just another kind of arrow for Rick Patino. So all of that I I love. I have a lot of faith in Patino and I have a lot of faith, like I like the pieces on this roster. So I am sold on St. John's. Your thoughts.

Ryan Hammer (10:16)
Question for you before I give you a couple of thoughts. Do you if you had to make a pick, do you think they win the Big East?

Evan (10:21)
No, I still think I would pick Yukon for a variety of reasons, but I do think that Yukon and Saint Johns are pretty close over there at the top. And I think there's gonna be another classic Yukon St. Johns duking it out there at the top of the conference.

Ryan Hammer (10:35)
Yeah, I'm sure

those games will be super normal and calm and not that not crazy at all, exactly. I I a hundred percent player like when you talk about roster talent, throwing out chemistry, roster continuity, et cetera, when you go player for player, talent, etcetera, you could argue them against any team in the country. I truly believe that. I think with up there with like Kansas super talented, obviously Duke, Florida, Illinois, et cetera. But I think St. John's player for player is up there.

Quinn Ellis is massive. Him, he just got his eligibility, which is huge. And like you said, I f it seems like basically all of their team their guys that they have right now are gonna be eligible, at least to start the year. so let's assume that they are gonna be eligible. I think Quinn Ellis will be one of the best point guards in the country. I think he is fantastic. And I think, again, player for player, they're amazing. They're gonna be able to score a buck tonight. It's gonna be so much better and more balanced than it's been the last few years, especially hopefully shooting the ball and spacing the floor at least better than it has been, obviously.

You say that their defense is gonna be great again, which it should be good. I have slight worry in the pieces that they have that do they have the same defensive capabilities player for player that they've had in the last couple of years where partial a lot of it is the Rick Patino system and like how they kind of coach them up and what positions they put them in, but

We haven't seen Toon Day played one year for Baylor, obviously. So we'll see what we get. We haven't seen Keyshawn Hall play really off ball and offensively, but in a defensive-minded system that worked for him and made him kind of flourish and at him not be a hole in that sense. So that kind of worries me a little bit. Obviously, losing Zubi is gonna be a huge piece, but hopefully Ruben and a couple of the other big guys like Baba Carsani, et cetera, and the forwards that will will help out a lot in that sense. They've relied so much on defense to lift their floor.

In their defensive system in the last few years, even when their offense hasn't been amazing game to game year on the h entire season, almost flipping the script a little bit. I don't think their defense is gonna be bad by any means. I just don't think it's gonna be elite. And then they also need all those new pieces to mesh well offensively and guys to play off ball because not everybody's gonna be happy. Like if Keyshawn Keyshawn Hall will play a lot and he's probably gonna be one of their number one options, if not one B, whatever you wanna call it. But someone's people aren't gonna be happy. And then at that point, how do they mesh? So

Again, this is me playing more devil's advocate than

Evan (12:49)
Of course.

Ryan Hammer (12:50)
advocate than saying I hate Saint John's because I don't even though the Johnny's fans think I do hate them, I don't at all. I think they're gonna be awesome. I have slight like that's why I wouldn't I didn't take them as this team. I'm curious to how you think about the defensive pieces first.

Evan (13:04)
Yeah,

I totally a reasonable concern. And I think a couple things with that. One is from just purely a model perspective. Like, there is not a one of their top five or six players who's going to play a lot of minutes. One of things I often look for is do they have just an objectively bad defensive impact score according to their defensive BPR on my site? And none of them do. They're all average to plus guys. So there's not like an obvious weakness here. And I think too, like a lot of these guys have the like at for example, Tunde Yasfu, very athletic. And I think

If they can hone him, like he could be a really great defender. And I think he has close to the top defensive projected rating on the team this year. But I also think this is just a Rick Patino play. Like, yes, absolutely the fact that they have all of these different pieces and how are they going to mesh together is a hundred percent a reasonable concern. And for many other coaches, it would be more of a red Flagg for me. And it's still good. It's still good. But I am buying Rick Pitino to have it figured out. And and check with me back in like February because

Ryan Hammer (14:01)
Yeah.

Evan (14:02)
He often complains about his rosters in like November and December. And then by the time they get close to tournament play, they're, they're, they're playing really well. So I think for me, it's just like I'm just gonna trust in a really good coach who has systematically outperformed roster expectation every single year that he's been at St. John's, and this year on paper is their best roster, according to at least how my model works. So that's really where the buy-in comes for me. Why don't you go ahead and give us your first team that you are on the bandwagon for this year?

Ryan Hammer (14:31)
Sure. And by the way, I I love the way you go about that because most people and people listening understand because this your show and they know you well at this point, but like most people would assume he's just gonna go off all data and numbers. And you don't it's not just that. You give gut takes, you say, hey, you like you said, most teams that just bring in a bunch of dudes probably aren't gonna be amazing, but Rick Petine, like you don't have those numbers on the site. Numbers don't say that. So I like it. my first team I went with actually is it not my highest ranked team? I guess I'll start the same way. My high

Evan (14:59)
Whatever order you

want.

Ryan Hammer (15:00)
I'll go I'll start the same way. My highest ranked team in terms of the A P poll at least, and that is gonna be the Miami Hurricanes. I know that is a team that you also like. We've talked about a little bit in the offseason, but I could not be more excited for this team. And it's funny you mentioned before I get into the team a little bit, like you mentioned, yeah, their first big game of the year I'm gonna be so excited for. They're playing Florida first game of the year, night one. I I

Evan (15:21)
yeah, I am pumped for that.

Ryan Hammer (15:23)
like if you told me Miami won the game, would not be surprised at all. I think Florida, if I had to pick a team, I'll take Florida and the game sure, but

It's kinda like the Arizona Florida game to start the year last year. And you're like, is this team gonna make that jump that you think they're gonna make? And on night one, they go beat the national the reigning national champions. This would be the reigning SEC champions this year, for Miami in a game in Tampa. But Miami had an amazing year one under Jai Lucas. They were a seventy, they went to the round of thirty two, won a tournament game. I think in terms of just coaching in the system, th not only is he an amazing young budding coach that in three or four years we're gonna think he's one of the best coaches in the country. I truly believe that.

He's intelligent, he's analytical f analytically forward. Their system is relatively innovative. They keep up with everything. He comes from the Duke system that bre like just breeds out these kind of coaches and guys all over the country that I think are awesome. And on top of that, they laid the structure and the bones of the system in year one. If they returned nothing, nobody, no player at all, which they don't, from that year one system from last year that was good.

that w this would still get me excited because it for a brand new head coach in college basketball, like that shows me a lot. It's the same thing for guys like Luke Laux at Florida State who lost basically everybody. Like that that's okay. It's gonna it's natural in the sport. It's gonna happen. But as a year one head coach, we saw so much positive from Jay Lucas to love in their system. You look at their returners, Shelton Henderson's gonna be one of the best scorers in the country in year two. Having Malik Reneau back for year five i is massive. It changes everything. It changes their floor, their ceiling, it gives them everything they need, their number one option.

First team all conference in the ACC last season. He's one of the best players in the country. He won't he doesn't get credit for that, and he won't get credit for that. They also return other guys on the wing, Dante Allen and a couple of other returners that are deep into the roster. But then the other additions, the Acaden Lewis from Villanova, who was one of the best playmakers as a freshman in the country at a great assist turnover ratio. They would bring Somto Cyril who like is a literal monster on the floor. Play finish. Talk about a playmaker and then a play finisher. I think Caleb Gaston's is going to be.

a lottery pick this year. He's a great five-star freshman from Miami. And I think Deshaun Good is a huge, huge swing piece for this team from Robert Morris because he's one of the most complimentary style players in the country. There's not a single thing he can't do. Six foot eight, he can rebound, he can pass, he can dribble, he can shoot, he can do everything. And he kinda it's a little bit of a Malik Renault vibe in terms of what he can do. And you can play both of them. They can sub in and out. As long as you have one of them on the floor, they're kind of playing that hybrid point forward role a little bit.

And then they have guys beyond that, Nick Dorn from Indiana, Robert Miller from LSU. They have Yeagor Rizov, this big 6'11 Russian athletic forward who I like for a depth piece. Like they're deep enough and they're so, so talented on top of having a really good year to make another jump this year. I compare it a lot to Vanderbilt when Mark Byington first got there two years ago. No one expected them to be good. They were a 10-seed right away, got to the tournament. And then last year they had an amazing year, top 25 team, five seed, lost that heartbreaker in the round of 32.

But objectively, Vanderbilt was awesome last year and made a great year two jump. I think Miami, who started off even better than what Vanderbilt did in their first year under Mark Byington as a seventh seed already in the round of 32, like bringing in this level of talented players better than what Vanderbilt's roster was last year, is gonna be unbelievable. Their system is great. I am curious to see how it gets tweaked a little bit and analytically focused, like where are their s where their strategic focus is gonna be, because right now you can you can see it a little bit.

They love to score inside, high effective field goal percentage. They like to protect the rim, push teams out in the paint and not let them take easy twos. but I'm curious to see how what more we get of Jay Lucas.

Evan (18:55)
Yeah, I I'm I'm sold. Like we were kinda we we had to sort of agree on our three teams before we did this, and we sort of fought over Miami a little bit. If Miami

Ryan Hammer (19:00)
Yeah.

Evan (19:02)
would be like a a like a consideration for one of my three, and who knows, maybe I'll jump on them at some point. Like I I I'm also all in on this Miami team. I have them as the we're talking earlier about preseason roster grades. I have Miami as the fifth best roster in the country, just agnostic of

Who's coaching, team context, all that. Like the pieces on this roster are genuinely really exciting. And yes, Malik Renew is absolutely the the big piece that kind of ties all this in together. Having him back is huge. He's a top fifteen player in the preseason, according to my analytics. But the the new pieces they have are what really get me excited. Surreal is gonna be awesome. McCaden Lewis, I'm really excited to see his sophomore year jump.

Robert Miller, I think, is one of the more underrated like defensive transfers in the country. His numbers looked really good at LSU. so I'm really high on him. And Caleb Gaskins, I think if he pops, like will be another just like bonus piece on this team.

Ryan Hammer (20:03)
Yeah.

Evan (20:03)
I'm not quite as high on him from a like numbers perspective coming in as where he was like ranked in his class. But if he ends up out outperforming that expectation, I would not be surprised at all. and you mentioned it, like.

In hit their first year, very similar to Vanderbilt, like made the tournament as a seven seed and now has a like really, really good roster in year two. you know, obviously there can be we only have one year of track record. And I think there have been some coaches who have been like had a really promising first year in the last several years, and then they've gotten a lot of spend, and then the second year has actually kind of flopped for whatever reason. Like you could look a little bit at Mark Pope in c with Kentucky, Pat Kelsey with Louisville, like

Their first years were really promising. They got lots of buy in for year two, and then things didn't quite go the way that they wanted. So, like it is not a surefire thing that Jay Lucas will, you know, cash in on this like top 15 preseason status and be a top, you know, three or four seed. But I certainly think they have a good chance at that and would not be at all surprised if when they play Florida or some of these early games that they really make a statement. So I'm all in. I'm all in on this Miami squad. I I'm definitely buying the hype there too.

Ryan Hammer (21:12)
What's the devil's advocate by the way to them? Like just that like maybe we're just overhyping them?

Evan (21:15)
I think it's the second year. I

think it's just the second year coach. Like I do think it is easy for us to get carried away with like with hype on small sample size. And the small sample size in this case is like we've only had one year. And some things sometimes things just go your way and there's a little bit of luck involved and then it can kind of revert back and forth. And you just look at the like pr the sort of narrative around some of these first year coaches who have been really great in their first year and then like only hey, maybe like

Three-fourths of it and end up delivering on that promise in year two. That makes sense. So I think that's probably where the devil's advocate argument would be there.

Okay, I'm my next team that I'm gonna go with is I'll do this one next. This is the, I think technically the lowest of the teams that I have, but I think I'm higher than this team than consensus, and that is Marquette with Shaka Smart. And I was a little bit surprised that I kind of like as I dug more in, I really

I'm excited about how much I like this team. And basically kind of here's here's why I'm really, really excited about Marquette this year. I have them 31st in the preseason. If you were they did not make the preseason AP poll. If you were to tabulate the like extra votes that they get, I think they got a few votes that would put them like 41st in the AP poll or whatever, with a few straggling votes. So

Ryan Hammer (22:30)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (22:32)
I'm certainly higher there than consensus. I have them going in as the 40th best off best offense in the country. That's just okay, but 17th on defense.

Now, here is kind of my argument. and it is somewhat of a Shaka Smart argument as well. And I also really like the pieces on this roster. So Shaka Smart has had a great reputation for a long time. And then last year was objectively one of his like worst years overall in terms of just like where he was in the national picture. They had the 61st best roster in the preseason, ended up missing the tournament, finished 72nd nationally. But you look at the previous years at Marquette,

In 2025, they were a seven seed after having a borderline top fifty roster. The previous two years, they were a two seed with having a top fifteen roster in twenty twenty four, and then massively outperforming expectations the season prior, they had like the 65th best roster and it got a two seed. And then the if you go back to like for for him as a coach, like 2019, his team finished 22nd, did not make the tournament, but they had a team good enough to do that. So

My argument basically with this partly is that Shaka Smart, when he has had a good roster, he has usually almost always delivered on that. He's had I think seven years in the last 10 or or so, 2024, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2016, 2015, as I was tabulating this, where he had a top thirty roster in the preseason and he made the tournament in all of those years, except for one, but finished as a top twenty five team.

In that year, and he's had some years where he's massively outperformed a bad roster too. And so when you all sum that up to this year, Marquette has the 23rd best roster according to my player projections model. Now, I think that's probably a bit higher than consensus, but I I I really like a lot of the sort of pieces there. And when you take into account the uncertainty of like, okay, well, he had a bad year last year as a coach, the coaching staff did.

That is taken into account when you go to the final like preseason ranking. And so them having the 23rd best roster and ending up with a preseason rank of 31 is kind of taking a little bit of that skepticism into account. And even with that, that still would have them safely in the tournament. So when you look at the roster that they have assembled, the big pivot this year was that he actually used the transfer portal, in addition to keeping a lot of

Ryan Hammer (24:50)
Hmm.

Evan (24:52)
the best players that he has, which is has always been a trademark of Shaka Smart at Marquette. So they have two of the top five.

Players in the Big East, according to my player projections, in Nigel James Jr. and then Sonanda Fru, who is the transfer from Louisville. Top 10 transfer class, and they only took three transfers. So

Ryan Hammer (25:10)
Yeah.

Evan (25:11)
when you look at the other top 15 or so transfer classes, according to my model, all those other teams took more than three players. So they were able to get really good get bang for their buck. And so Sonanda Fru, which I'll you know talk about in second, but then you have Nolan Minasale, or however you pronounce his name from St. Thomas.

And Colin Porter from Liberty, who hopefully is going to be eligible for them. But I think for me, where this roster starts, and a player I'm extremely excited to watch this year is Nigel James Jr. He, as a freshman, was a top hundred recruit, and in his freshman year, he ended up averaging 16 points, five rebound or five assists per game, best BPR on the team. And there's a lot of guys like him who, when they stay in college, often make a big sophomore year leap. I think he's an elite playmaker, he's a really good scorer. So

I think he could be like all conference good in the Big East. That's certainly where I have him in the preseason. And I also really like Sonanda Fru a lot more than most people do. I talked about this on a previous podcast this offseason. The the story with him from Louisville was that he like kind of got demoted towards the end of the season with Pat Kelsey, but nothing in his data suggested that he was like doing bad things. They were just trying to experiment and figure out what was going on with their roster. but he still had really good like underlying efficiency numbers from

Like his he's one of the most efficient scorers inside the rim in the entire country. I think he's the second best in the entire country in his projected two-point percentage grade this year. And then they have some really other important pieces back. and like I mentioned, some of those other transfers, like Nolan from St. Thomas is a ninety-ninth percentile scorer according to his projected scoring grade. I think that's gonna be an absolutely huge addition for them. So when I look at their roster, like the top five or six pieces, especially.

I like really like, especially relative to the rest of the Big East. And Shaka Smart normally delivers when he has that level of promise. So when you combine the fact that like individually, I like the pieces that they got, both from a returning standpoint and it being centered around Nigel James, and then also the pieces, the several key transfers they were able to bring in, and then Shaka Smart track record being really good, despite having a bad year last year, I'm I'm really optimistic about what this group is gonna do.

Ryan Hammer (27:21)
Yeah, I I'm I'm with you too. I think they'll be a tournament team for sure this year. Nigel James, I think, should be one of the best players in the country this year. I think he he could win Big East Player of the Year. I went back and forth between him and Silas Demory fifty fifty and the team success for Silas o always what put me over the edge for that one. yeah, and honestly, just the fact that he used the portal finally and just gave in.

I don't even care who it is. I'm just happy. I'm I'm already happy, so you get to check on that one. But the Sandanda Fruit thing is super interesting 'cause like if Santa Fru is great and he's one of the top five, if not e even the top ten or fifteen player in the big east, just an all conference player, that changes Marquette drastically for in what they will be because to your point, like

Do we take the same we talked about sample sizes earlier? The sample size of playing at Louisville for a year, a team and a system of Pat Kelsey that does not ever prioritize their bigs. Maybe they will this year with Flory, obviously, but it does not prioritize their bigs. They play a super fast-paced system in tempo where they just need the bigs to be play finishers and hopefully decent rim protectors on the defensive end. And they don't ask a lot out of them. So it's a very different than maybe what he can offer. If he can be great in a much slower system for Marquette and in the Big East,

then I'm totally all in. I think no Nolan Sali is awesome. He's a weird player from St. Thomas and he might look off at times, but he is fantastic. He's a score. He's great at the rim. He's a good cutter, good playmaker. He shot the ball a buck ton too. Like he's one of those guys who will be more refined in terms of production this year and role and usage, but he's gonna be super high in terms of player efficiency thing. I know Colin Porter right now is not eligible.

That's a huge swing piece for me because I don't think their depth is amazing. I Adrian Stevens is good. Royce Parham, but we need we need need another guard like Colin Porter to be eligible off the bench. I think he could be an amazing sixth man for them. Not to say that like Colin Porter's eligibility is it me being fully in or fully out on Marquette, but it changes their upside for sure, I'd say. I think the floor is good. I think they'll be a tournament team. they also don't add like enough talent to me.

to like drastically change what they did last year and be so like worlds better. So that's where I get a little hesitant about Marquette in terms of their ceiling, but I think they're gonna be much better than five hundred. They were below last year. And I think they'll be one of the top four teams the Big East for sure. So I'm I'm mostly with you here.

Evan (29:35)
Yeah, I think Fru probably is the swing piece for me because like I am buying in on Fru being a

Ryan Hammer (29:39)
Yeah.

Evan (29:39)
at minimum like a top fifteen player in the Big East. And if he ends up not being that, that's gonna, you know, massively affect things. But I think that's what Marquette wants for him and part of why they went and got him in the portal. All right. Give us your second team.

Ryan Hammer (29:53)
I will follow suit and I'll save my favorite one for last and I will go with my lowest ranked team.

So I went a bunch of different worlds here. I didn't go Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt's they're ranked, I think, 24 in the poll. I thought they were going to be unranked. So I was going to plan to go with Vanny because I do like them. I know every analytical platform likes them as well. Just want to show them some love. Was going to go Florida State also much deeper than this team is, but this team, the Nebraska Cornhuskers, I could not believe that they were unranked. I I cannot believe that they were not ranked in the top 25 to start the year because not only do I think that they're great.

And they're gonna be, they were great last year, they were gonna be good this year. But usually teams that are great last year have good returning pieces, have a clear line to be very similar, if not even better, than what they were last year. Those are usually the teams that the AP voters kind of love and they love to vote high, at least in the preseason, to start the year off right. So you would think Nebraska makes a lot of sense. They were great last year. They started off 20 and they went to the sweet 16. Like they returned their best player Pryce Sandfort They returned Braden Frager, who had a great freshman year, is gonna break out even more in year two.

Too

like it didn't make sense to me. So it was an easy pull for me when you said we have to pick a team outside the top 25. Again, mention those two other teams who I like, one of them ranked, one of them not. I'm going with the Nebraska cornerhouse because I think, like I mentioned before, they showed us so much last year that at times felt unsustainable and not real a little bit earlier in the year. I'm like, what is like this team is I couldn't believe it.

Analytics started to back them up more and more as we got through the years. They started to play tougher opponents as they started to they beat Illinois, I think, in December, and they started to beat really good teams. At some point you had to just accept that, okay, they've been doing it time and time again.

We have to believe what it is. It still feels the system a little wonky and a little different. And maybe teams can figure it out, but it worked for an entire season last year. Like, even though they started losing games in the Big Ten, it's the Big Ten. Like it is what it is. They ended up being a top, they finished the year top 15 to 20, depending on the analytical platform on the season. But for most of the year and all of the calendar year after the turn of the new year into January and on, they were top 12, 13, 14 on every site basically throughout the season. And I think when they were 19-0 on January.

21st. They got to 12 analytically, at least on I saw on Kem Pom. And then the rest of the season, they were top 14. They didn't dip below number 14 until they lost in the sweet 16 and went down to 16. no, it's the it's the end of the world. But they were really good last year. Like I mentioned, they returned price safe for and Braden Frager. Frager's going to do much more, be much more on the ball.

Pryce Sandfort doesn't get enough doesn't doesn't give enough credit for who how good he is and how much more he can do. He was so good last year. He's already one of the best shooters in the country, but I think on ball he'll do a lot more this year. Those two need to be on ball more this year. And then I think when you look at the guys that they brought in, the additions were so strategic to be exact fill ins for what they lost. When they lost their both their bigs, Barkey to Vandy and then

Rank Moss to graduation. The two guys that brought in, Bowden Kapke and Sam Orme fit exactly what they want. They're big. They're not like massive like those two guys. They're solid rebounders and solid paint players, but they're floor spacers. They're mobile. Sam Orme is a good on-ball playmaker and a connector at least as a secondary playmaker. He's a really good off ball cutter and just an overall good player. Those two guys are great for their no middle scheme, exactly what they like to do to be active, create a lot of deflections. Trevin Lenhart is gonna take over the Jamarcus Lawrence role, which I think is perfect. He is probably

Maybe not better playmaker, but he's probably a better scorer, better shooter, but similar to Jamarcus Lawrence, and he's long and lengthy, really lengthy arms that'll be really good for for POA attack on top. And then the Kale Jacob the excuse me, Kale Jacobson, but Sam Huyberg role it was massive for them. He started every game and Kale Jacobson, who's also a former walk on here at Nebraska, is gonna take the Sam Hoyberg role. I I had to even confirm with Sam. I had text him and was like, Am I crazy or is Kale gonna be the this ver year's version of you to an extent? He said, Yeah, like a hundred percent. And

He's exactly like that. So I see what Nebraska did last year that I didn't fully trust all year last year, but prove me wrong. And I see the exact same kind of kind of team this year with differentiating factors here and there a little bit. And I say how how in the world is that not a top twenty-five team? That makes absolutely it made zero sense to me. It made it it made absolutely zero sense. I think most of the analytical sites at least have them top twenty-five. I know yours is right on the cusp, and a lot of the other ones are top twenty, but that's enough for me to be confident.

Evan (34:11)
Mm. Where do you have where do you have them personally ranked in the preseason?

Do you remember?

Ryan Hammer (34:16)
I haven't

put it out yet, but I'll give you a sneak peek. I have Nebraska ranked about nineteenth, which again is not like drastically higher than what we're seeing, but it they're they're they're clearly a top twenty five team in my opinion, so.

Evan (34:30)
Yeah, I I love this pick. This is really fun. And I think, yeah, you mentioned I have Nebraska 26, and I think based on AP votes, they were like the second one out of the polls. That's kind of like in in line with at least AP voters. but I absolutely can see it. I think the overperforming thing, again, is a theme here for me of last year. They had the forty eighth best best roster on paper before the season started. Obviously, we figured out their players were better by the time the the season ended.

Ryan Hammer (34:58)
Mm.

Evan (34:59)
But they were a top, you know, they made the sweet 16. They were a top 20 team by the end of the year. So on paper, this is the best roster that Nebraska has ever had entering a season. Like ever. Like on paper, that's what we're looking at here. So expectations should be higher than ever. I think my before I get to like my my question mark, I will say like Price Sanford, I he's outstanding, especially offensively. I have him as a top, I think, sixth in the preseason in terms of his offensive projection value for this sea this year.

He's just an elite proven three-point shooter at this point. He's like one of the best in the country. And like you said, Braden Frager could make that jump. I think this is maybe one of my like question marks here from a at least analytical perspective is I do not have Braden Frager quite as high in his predicted like sophomore year leap as I would have s thought because he

Ryan Hammer (35:48)
Mm.

Evan (35:49)
was really outstanding as a freshman. And I think part of that is his, he was, you know.

Relatively unknown coming out of high school, like barely a top 200 player in his class. And so sometimes those players are who can stick out in their freshman season, maybe like don't have quite as much of a jump. So I have him as like a slight bump, but not a tremendous bump. So that might be an area I'm a little bit more pessimistic. And maybe my other question mark is like, was this a flash in the pan for Fred Freiburg? Because like before last year,

Nebraska was not being talked about as a team who could be like, okay, you know, sneaky good and you know, he's gonna make a lot with a little. I mean, he has done that many times, but often it's been because their rosters were just so bad going back the last five or ten years. So, like, this is really the only season we have on record of him being kind of in this sort of like top twenty-five conversation. Now, you can make the case here that just like they their floor is much higher this year because of just all the known commodities they have.

I'm also really high on Trevin Lenhart coming from from Utah Valley. I think he could be a really capable playmaker at the point to potentially do a lot of what Sam Hoyberg did l last year. But I think my one hesitation would be like, are we just gonna go back to what the roll the dice on how previous Nebraska seasons have gone

Ryan Hammer (37:06)
Yeah.

Evan (37:07)
in terms of like how they've done relative to the the expectation? And and maybe it just turns out to be a little bit more just like, you know, they they get in the tournament, but it's not necessarily like a top.

five seed or whatever. so that would be my my one hesitation there, but I certainly can see it.

Ryan Hammer (37:21)
No, that's that's totally fair. And and it's funny, like I look at their their non con slate and like they play Providence, Boise State, Butler, they get Ohio State early and then they go on the road to Creighton and play Missouri neutral site. Like i they could start whatever an O again all the way to January second when they go play Michigan State at home and you're looking at the same kind of thing as last year. So like they they might drop a game or two. They definitely could. Providence could be good, Creighton could be good, like these Ohio st Ohio State's gonna be good.

But again, like these are all winnable games. I'd probably project them one by one to win all those games. So we're probably looking at the same kind of situation as last year. I just won't be caught out not like being stupid again about about them and not trusting it early enough. And like you said, I think a full season after he had been he has been there for a few years.

kind of proves the floor at least. I don't think the floor is them being top twenty in the country like it was all year last year and like we're maybe projecting, but I like there's no way that they end up being below a top thirty team. Like that I there's no way. So I'll take the chances. Yeah, no way. No shot.

Evan (38:21)
Yeah, I'd be I'd be pretty surprised if they missed the tournament. Like if they ended up being

in in more like borderline top 50, that would that would be surprising

for sure. All right, I'm gonna go to my third team, and I am going with the Baylor Bears, and I'm just gonna address the allegations right out of the gate here because for some of you who may know, I did grad school at Baylor, and so I have to address the homerism here. And I just wanna say that though I am

Like historically, I I love watching Baylor. They're one of the teams I I root for more than most. I am if if I was down on this Baylor roster, I would tell you. Because last year I was. Like Baylor assembled a roster last year that they thought was gonna be a top twenty-five roster, despite not spending top twenty-five capital to get those players. And my model did not like hardly any of the players relative to what they wanted for them. and outside of a few, a lot of them

were below expectation. So like last year, I had Baylor as the 36th best roster in the country. And I think they wanted to be a top 20 or top 25 roster. They missed the tournament. They finished 48th in the country according to my model. And so l last year objectively, I was kind of out on this team. And that was sort of what happened. And they really stunk against the best teams on their schedule, just kind of no-showed in a lot of those games. So like

It, you know, I'm only do I'm only picking Baylor because I actually think the reverse is true this year. Like when I put out my preseason team rankings, which again has nothing to do with my own personal bias. It's everything based on the objective data and how it's built and all that. Baylor was definitely one of the top two to three teams that people are like, Whoa, you have Baylor pretty high. So I do think it kind of agrees with what people would point out as being a team that my model is high on. So here's the argument for Baylor. Last year was the worst roster that.

But Scott Drew is had on paper in the last seven seasons, going back to before their national title. And because of injuries and also other guys being just not usable, they only played seven guys down the stretch last year. Like they had seven guys on the roster who all played over 25 minutes per game, and there was like squat for everyone else. And like they were hoping James Najee could come in and do something he did not. and so like they have had two seasons in a row of

Of underperforming relative to roster. I think last year was a tough one. But for Scott Drew, the previous seven years, he met or exceeded roster expectations. So now when you look at this year, according to how their pieces look on paper, I have them as the 25th best roster in the country. And I think a lot of that is I I really like a lot of the pieces on this roster more than what most people think. And so before I get into the roster, I think another key piece to potentially be like,

What's a what's something that's been missing from Baylor that they could have this year? Jerome Tang is back. Jerome Tang is back. Now, his tenure at Kansas State after his first season was not great. but he was a key cog for Scott Drew in winning a national championship and being as successful as they were. And the, you know, defensively they've had some struggles since Tang left. I do think I'm not saying that that's gonna be the reason that they're grading in this year, but certainly having him back in the fold is gonna be great.

With that being said, like Baylor in the past, going even going into their national championship, like used to have this identity as like this really staunch defensive team. They've not been that way for like the last five or six years. They have been a better offensive team than defensive teams, sometimes substantially so, even going back to their their national title year. And so I think that's probably gonna stay the same this year. On the individual player piece, they have several players that I am just like really high on relative to consensus. And when you add all that up, it stacks up really well. Dylan Mingo.

I think I have him as according to my new projections model, which looks at your high school stats along with your recruiting info and and basically projects how good you're gonna be in college. I have him as a top five freshman coming into the year, which is a little bit higher than where he was ranked according to the recruiting services. I think he has an all around really good game for a freshman. Like he's not gonna be like Yesafu was just like a prolific scorer last year. Mingo is just he's a great scorer, he's a good playmaker, he's a plus rebounder.

Good steal rate in high school. And there is reports around him kind of being like the way that they want him to play this year is being like the standout defender on the team as a freshman, is not something typically you're asking a freshman to do or buy into, but I think that's kind of what they want for him this year. And then his brother Kayden being a really great transfer get from Penn State after a really solid freshman year that kind of went under the radar because Penn State wasn't that good. But he is the point guard that they need and that they've been missing in in some previous years.

He averaged really solid numbers for Penn State. He was a top 50 recruit coming out of high school. He makes plays for others and does not turn the ball over very much for a point guard, capable scorer. So I am buying into the sophomore year leap for Kaden Mingo. I also really like Isaac Celiscar who is a top 30 transfer according to my model, coming from Yale. He is not going to be someone who like is gonna be the, you know, probably leading scorer on this team or be the most flashy player, but he like

he like has no weaknesses as a player, and I think his all-around, really well-rounded game is just gonna make him plug and play and really reliable. I mean, like every single category, if you look at his profile on evanmia.com, is like average or better or great, much better than average. Like he doesn't have any weaknesses in his profile. I really like that they're getting Kaden Powell back, pending eligibility, Isaac Williams, and then Justlin Boto Boto sat out all of last year because he was injured.

Ryan Hammer (43:58)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (43:58)
He's

arguably the best rebounder in the entire country in division one coming back this year. And my model is like really low on Brett Decker, who is the like sharpshooter transfer from Liberty. Like it's he's ranked, I think, like eighth on the roster. And I definitely know they they compensated him to be more like a top five or top three

Ryan Hammer (44:16)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (44:17)
guy on this roster. So if he hits like they want, then that's just another like you know, reason why, why they're gonna be really good.

If I'm picking out like what's just a trend that could they need to correct this year in order to hit on this projection, last year and previous seasons, Baylor has objectively stunk at playing well in big games. So if you look at my opponent's strength adjustment on my website from previous years, their bar is like way in the blue every year, which means like

Ryan Hammer (44:43)
Yeah.

Evan (44:43)
they play really well against bad teams, but when they play against top half teams or top third teams in the Big 12 or otherwise, like they have just really struggled.

So they absolutely need to correct that and show up in big games. But if they can cross that hump, I think they're gonna have a really good season.

Ryan Hammer (44:59)
Listen, just just straight favoritism right there.

Evan (45:01)
Yep.

Ryan Hammer (45:03)
no, I I it's funny, I love Baylor in twenty twenty-one, even after that, in the following years, the Sohan year, the Ray J. Dennis years, etcetera. It I've loved them. My thing is that like I think they'll be better than last year. Th they have to be. That was a floor for sure. Having Jerome Tang bac tang back is huge. He was part of basically like the architect of the defensive system that was so good for the national championship team.

I don't think him alone h him being back alone that a lot of Baylor fans are argued against me in when we did our Big Twelve episode actually. I was like, I don't see Baylor being making a huge, huge jump. Him being back alone doesn't completely change the defense like like that. It's it's not that simple. It's not that simple years later, it's not how works. Yeah, I I'm I like it. It it helps. It gives

Evan (45:41)
It's just kind of a hidden ingredient, more so.

Ryan Hammer (45:45)
a boost. I just think some of the fans think it's gonna be more of a boost than it actually is. And I my question marks are on the roster. Like I don't do the data work.

You do your s your model produces this number of that they're a top twenty-five roster. I I can't tell you that my gut and eyes are like I

Evan (46:02)
Totally.

Ryan Hammer (46:03)
don't trust this roster, but but so like maybe I'm wrong and I'll willingly be wrong because I would love to see Baylor make the jump back. I just think between like Celascar, the Mingos, Bodo, but like I just don't see the roster being infinitely better than what it was last year. And even if it is, my worry for them is that even if it is.

And the Mingos are both awesome, which I think they both can be for sure. I think Dylan and Caden will be I think they'll both be really good, especially together. My worry is that after the they won the national championship in twenty twenty one, it was like three years straight of round of thirty two and then last year, or whatever that matters for and then last year, right? So like like you said, they have not been able to beat good teams at all, especially when it mattered most in the tournament and in the latter of the year. And that worries me a lot. They won't be as good as those three C like Ray J. Dennis teams, and

Keontae George team except they won't be as good as those teams. They don't have that ability, I don't think. And if those teams couldn't g eclipse it, like maybe that maybe there's something different in this team that I'm just wrong about. I think this is the only one that we might disagree on.

Evan (47:04)
That's great. That's why I have you here. no, I I think I totally get that. And I think this is a sort of like prove it situation. Like Baylor has to go out and prove it. Like you can't just automatically assume. I mean, I think it's similar to some other teams that have underperformed recently that it's like it, you know, you you need to prove it in order for me to buy back in. But I am trying to call this ahead of when they actually start proving it. That's essentially what I'm doing here. And I think from a like part of why I think people might be relatively, I don't know, lower, but just like not as high on this roster as me is like.

There's just not a lot of pieces here that really just jump out as being like alpha dudes. But I would say that there are some teams previously. Like I look at both Nebraska and Vanderbilt from last season in terms of going into the year, who just amassed a lot of guys who were kind of under the radar, but had were really valuable in a lot of other areas besides just being like, you know, 20 point per game guys. And they ended up hitting on a lot of them. And I think like Vanderbilt, especially, I'm not saying this is an apples to apples situation, but last year I had Vanderbilt as like,

Maybe the 20th best roster in the preseason, that certainly was higher than what people thought they were going to be going to the year. And a lot of it was because you look at their top five or six guys, and we didn't know Tanner was going to be as good as he was, but they had a lot of really good, like safe or not safe, but like high floor, just like really well rounded players that when they played together were really skilled. And that's kind of the vision that I see with Baylor. I'm not saying that they're gonna be as good as Van Die or Nebraska last year, but that's that's sort of what I'm seeing, at least from an analytical perspective. So

Ryan Hammer (48:31)
Yep, that's

fair. It's a good point about Tanner. Like, I'm sure internally they expect him to be good. They didn't expect to be that good. There's just no way. So a and that's happened. Even Nebraska is a great example. They you could argue they didn't even have an alpha last year. It was like four or five different guys. So it's a good point. And I guess I guess we'll see. I want them to be good. I love it down there. I remember visiting. I it was awesome. I want them to be good. I think the culture there is great and they're a fun big toe program. So I hope I hope I'm wrong. I hope you're right.

Evan (48:55)
All right, speaking of the big twelve, give me your last

one.

Ryan Hammer (48:58)
Yeah, I saved my f my the one I'm most passionate about for last. That's the Texas Tech Red Raiders. I like I think they were 19th in the AP poll to start the year right now, which is a complete we they don't have JT Toppins, so we're gonna put them a little we're gonna give them a big hit and we're gonna f we're gonna wait. First of all, JT Toppin's says he's coming back in December. That's probably not gonna happen. It's probably more like January, but January is great. Come back for Big 12 play, miss a couple of games, that's fine. You can still be Big 12 player of the year and be that good because you know how good he is.

This team is so fitting for a Grant McCasslin system. Like more than usual, very re reminiscent of two years ago, the team that went to the Elite Eight. Obviously JT was on that team. Obviously Darien Williams, who's now back on the boomerang for a fifth year from NC State, probably a year that he wished he had back at Texas Tech, clearly, because he's back again, but

Darrion Williams being back is such a massive piece because he is the versatility swing piece on the wing, big guard playmaker that can play a little bit of four that helped them get make that Elite Eight run. He was so good. He averaged like 21 7 and 4 in their in their tournament run to the Elite Eight that year when they challenged Florida, who ended up winning the national championship in the Elite in that Elite Eight game. Him being back is huge. The guards that they have on top of that are, again, they're the

the ball hawk guards that Grant McCowson loves to have that are feisty defensively. They're fearless offensively. They're willing to take whatever shots they have to. I look at Donovan Atwell, one of the best shooters in the country. Dre Gibbs Lawhorn who played at Illinois and then UNLV put up 20 points a game last year. And then Cruz Davis, who put up 20 points a game at Hofstra for last year, and then was at St. John's before that.

All three of those guys are exactly what I just described for that we saw from Christian Anderson, not saying they're going to be Christian Anderson, but to be those types of guards that Grant McCastlen systems thrive off of. On top of that, they bring in a couple of really good pieces like Basala Bagayoko, who was a really good serviceable big in Spain and a good shot blocker. They have maybe Jamichael Stillwell if he's going to be eligible coming over from UCF. They have a couple of other guys, Demarian Dennis from Wyoming. They have a couple of other returners like Josiah Mosley. This team is so much deeper than it's been in the last few years.

Which depth has always, always, always been an issue for Texas Tech, especially when they run into injury issues. But it's been an issue even when they're fully healthy. So I look at the team, knowing what they're great at, and I say without JT Toppin, that's a top 15 team in the country, definitely top 20, with JT Toppin, and he says he's back in December. Let's call it January to to to play a little bit of balance there, with JT Toppin back fully healthy, who is arguably the best player in the entire country. I

If they're top fifteen without him, top twenty without him, they're top five, ten at worst with him. So nineteen is is a little bit disrespectful. And they play a loaded non con schedule. They're gonna be at players era, they're gonna play Illinois, they play Duke again at MSG. it it's they're they're an amazing team. They're also super experienced, which I love. It's a

thing a college basketball coaches love right now. They're ninth overall in experience, I think, via Torvik, at least projected in the entire country in terms of college basketball experience. They have everything. They have roster continuity, depth, everything they need to be a prime Grant McCastellan team. So I love them.

Evan (52:04)
I love this pick. I strongly considered them as well. I think the the main reason I I didn't was between injury and eligibility issues. I just wasn't totally sure like where this lands.

Ryan Hammer (52:14)
Sure.

Evan (52:15)
But I think that's part of why they're ranked where they're ranked in AP poll. Just a little bit of uncertainty around like these additions of Williams and Atwell and Stillwell, like were late.

Ryan Hammer (52:23)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (52:24)
And then there's the whole JT Toppin question. If all that stuff ends up, they're having all of those guys and JT Toppin ends up playing meaningful minutes the second half of the season, like, yeah, I think this is a top 15 team.

At minimum. I have them 14th in the preseason, but this has some adjustments to it. So

Ryan Hammer (52:40)
Mm.

Evan (52:41)
if like this, I think it still might have Stillwell ineligible or at least like 50 50. And

Ryan Hammer (52:46)
Yeah.

Evan (52:47)
also JT Toppin is being docked here for not being fully healthy. So like I have JT Toppin as the 87th best player in the preseason because of the injury factor. Now, if he ends up being fully healthy by March, we're talking about a top 15 minimum player in the country.

So that obviously would push them massively higher than where I have them at 14th in the preseason right now. But like that is a question mark for me. Because like sometimes you do have guys who push really hard to be back and then they can re-injure. I mean, like Jaden Quaitons for Kentucky was supposed to be a big piece, and he kind of was just a complete non factor because he like came back too soon. And I think there's been a lot of mixed messages about Toppin's health. We don't have to get into the the, you know, figuring out what's

Ryan Hammer (53:27)
We don't know.

Evan (53:28)
the truth and what's not. But that certainly is like

There's a chance that he comes back and is just like solid but not spectacular, even if he's playing. But I think the depth piece for me is what is most exciting because Texas Tech was like objectively horrible when it came

Ryan Hammer (53:45)
Terrible.

Evan (53:46)
to depth last year. This was my big critique with them as a team, especially once they started having injury issues down the stretch. And I do think that was a massive

massively held them back from from being more consistent in Big 12 play down the stretch. They just didn't have enough guys. And I think Grant McCaslin did a great job of making the most of what he had. This year, it is the exact opposite. So on my in the previous episode that I did, I looked at like the teams that have the best depth in the country in the preseason by looking at like what's the average rating of their eighth, ninth, and tenth best guy according to my model. If they have all of their guys, Texas Tech is top five in depth this year, according to that metric.

That is a massive swing from being like s

Ryan Hammer (54:28)
Bottom.

Evan (54:28)
70th in depth or something last year nationally. Like this is a huge luxury. And I just look at the list of pieces that they have on this roster, and there's just so many great guys who could end up being massive hits for them. And they have a lot of proven scores. Like there's five guys on this team who all have a like very good or better grade in scoring on this team for me, according to my model in Top End, Gibbs Lahorn, Cruz Davis, Darion Williams, and then Dakari Spear.

Who's a top 30 freshman? Like, like there's there's a lot to like here between the depth. Obviously, the the health of JC Toppin, the eligibility, all that stuff is still pending. But if most of that works out, this team is gonna be super, super fun this year.

Ryan Hammer (55:08)
Yeah,

they were they were a very upside pick for sure. Like I love the floor. I think it's better than people would think, even with not fully healthy or eligible and not sure. The upside is they're one of the five best teams in the country contending for a national championship in March. So it's like maybe like a little bit of a dark horse, but that's their upside, so.

Evan (55:23)
All right.

That was super fun. Before we get out of here, a couple quick hitters. Just want to have a brief discussion, just to kind of mention it off the top. A lot of what's in the college basketball right now, narrative wise, is preseason exhibition games. So I wanted to get your take on like how much do you pay attention to preseason exhibition games? Do they matter to you or do they not? Because I certainly have my opinions on this, but I wanted to kind of give you a few seconds to to what's your approach and how you what you learn or don't learn from these.

Ryan Hammer (55:51)
The so generally I think they're very narrative based. Like you use them everyone everyone uses them to push whatever narrative they want. I'm very hesitant to push anything. Now when Duke beats Tennessee by 65 points, it felt like that that might be something there. It might might be something. But for the most part, I'm very hesitant to take team things, team takeaways away in exhibition games. I'm much more looking at like rotations.

how certain players look that are newcomers or maybe that I are off injury or that I have question marks about in terms of smoothness and certain traits. And then I can use that to fit into what I already know about the teams, whatever. Like Michigan State, Austin UConn, their offense kind of looks stagnant at times. I don't think Jeremy Fears is doing full Jeremy Fears. I don't think Cohen Carden look great, but I'm looking at like I know Jordan Scott's gonna be great. I'm watching Cam Ward. I'm watching Jesse McCullough and then I'm then I'm taking what I already know about the rest of the guys.

Same thing for Tennessee. Terrence Hill goes down. Well, that's not good, obviously. But what is Juke Harris doing? What are his looks like? What are the actions that he's getting his looks off of look like? And things like that that I can try to project. I'm very hesitant to go full public takeaways of, like Tennessee's awful. They're not a top twenty five team because Duke beat them by 30, whatever, 40 points last night. Like, I'm I'm not just gonna do that. Sure. In the back of my mind, I might be like, Well, that's not good, even if it's an exhibition. You look terrible from the get-go, but it's an exhibition game. Like

They don't run full sets. They're never going to do that in their exhibition games. They're toying with rotations. It's it's their early. It's like when we say things in November. teams, this is November. They might look different in March. Well, this isn't even before November. They're gonna look different in November in a few weeks. So I'm very hesitant. I understand that it's what we have right now. It's all we have to go off so everybody gets excited, but good teams lose in exhibition games all the time. So

Evan (57:40)
Yeah, I try and actively not pay attention to it if I'm being honest, because it it it doesn't help me kind of be objective with the analysis that I'm doing, especially because there are some people who talk like even two weeks into the season and reference exhibition games as a reason why their team

Ryan Hammer (57:54)
Yeah.

Evan (57:55)
should be good or not good. It's like that is already old news. Once we played a couple real regular season games, and I think I can say I mean there are results every single year that like that certain fan bases get excited for, and then it turns out the team is the exact opposite. Like

Kentucky crushed Purdue last year in the in the preseason

Ryan Hammer (58:11)
Yeah.

Evan (58:12)
and then like massively struggled once the season started. I think there was a couple years ago, the year that Purdue, I think, went to the title, they lost to Arkansas in an exhibition game. And it's like that that stuff I get it. From a fan perspective, we've not seen the product on the court yet. And this is the only information that we have. But

Ryan Hammer (58:28)
Yeah.

Evan (58:29)
like, I don't think it's fair to massively hold teams to that because not only are they not scouting the opponents like hardly at all when you talk to most coaches, they're just trying to run their stuff.

But two, like, yeah, it's experimental. Like I don't wanna, you know, dock a team for that. And I think as someone who I can think I can say this. So like this week, Duke crushed Tennessee. And so there's gonna be a lot of reaction overreaction to that that that one. And I think I can say as someone who is really excited about this Duke team and pessimistic about Tennessee relative to consensus, I would not overreact to that because like Tennessee is still working on stuff out and it was in Cameron Indoor Stadium and maybe Duke is approaching that game differently. Like I just, you know.

I I wouldn't sweat it.

Ryan Hammer (59:08)
I'm I'm

totally with you. It's also the only other thing I'll say about it is that we normally every year we get more and more broadcasted, available, accessible, televised exhibition games more than and this year more than ever before, especially because of so right.

Evan (59:19)
Yes. And they're making lots of money, which is why they're doing it.

Ryan Hammer (59:23)
So they're gonna continue to d to play these games like that. So you're gonna see more exhibitions than ever. When we used to get not so secret secret scrimmage scores, and that was eighty percent of what we would get. Even like last year, two or three years ago, it'd be like, Okay, great, you look at box scores, you ask coaches how guys looked, they give you half answers and like there w it's whatever. But now that you're able to watch these games, peop people are like again, that's all they have to go off of and they normally don't have this much to go off of. So, like I talked about Nebraska in our Big Ten episode and someone was like, Well, they lost to St. Louis and someone else, and I was like, I

First of say good teams they lost to. Second of all, I really don't care.

Evan (59:56)
Yeah. All right. I am trying something new this year with with many of my guest interviews where I'm gonna ask kind of a funny, non-college basketball related question. So my question for you before we get out of here is what is the worst sports memory as a fan of your lifetime? Like what

Ryan Hammer (1:00:13)
Oof.

Evan (1:00:13)
is the lowest sports moment for you as a fan?

Ryan Hammer (1:00:16)
my god.

Listen, man. Let me just let me just share a little bit. I am a New York Mets fan. I'm not really into baseball anymore because of them. They've turned me off of the sport entirely. I'm a Jets fan. I'm a Rangers fan. Like I have never seen I've seen Arsenal win a championship, which is again not a domestic team. And that was last year, so it's like it's not it doesn't hit the same. the butt fumble is actually not as high up as most people would think because I I it was one I

I d one play. I really don't care. I'd say one of the worst things ever was when the Jets I don't know what year he was drafted. I I want to say it was 2019 because Trevor Lawrence was 2020 draft during the pandemic or 2021 draft of 2020 or something like that. And the Jets have been so bad forever. They've done so many bad things. We've lost so many disgusting games that I can probably

I if I had it in front of me, I'd be like, yeah, that one was even worse. When the Jets had won like two or three games, whatever it was, we're playing the Rams at the end of the year who were good. And I think we returned like a punt for a touchdown. We won the game for no reason. Zero reason at the very end of the year. And that was the only reason that the Jets didn't get the first pick and then and get Trevor Lawrence and we ended up getting Zach Wilson instead. It was like on the spot we knew we were eternally I

Zach Wilson was never going to be the guy and we were eternally screwed. And obviously, look how that played out. That was really bad. The Sam Darnold scene goes stuff was really bad. Mets losing 4-1 in the World Series in 2015 was really bad. There is a there's a lot. I can go through a whole buckton with with my teams, and I don't want to bore you, so.

Evan (1:01:53)
Yeah, it sounds like you just pick some bad teams to cheer for.

Ryan Hammer (1:01:56)
Dude, it sucks. I like

the Jets the Jets games are there have been like r normal regular season week eight games, week nine, week ten. There's just like why do I care? Don't know why. And they just lose like thirty one to three against like the there was a Patriots Thanksgiving game years ago that we lost by like forty, and Vince Wilfork was dominating Turkey on the field after. I remember that being an issue. That one.

Evan (1:02:21)
I was for for me, I think my answer is I was a Colts fan growing up, so I think the Super Bowl loss to the Saints in twenty ten hurt. But my worst memory, I

Ryan Hammer (1:02:27)
Mm.

Evan (1:02:27)
think, of of just feeling the lowest in that moment was when I was in grad school at Baylor. Baylor had a home game against Oklahoma with Jalen Hurts in like twenty nineteen. And b Baylor was, I think, like tenth in the AP poll at this point, and they were undefeated like nine and And I went to this game. It was one of maybe two games I went to as a as a as a grad student, and like

Baylor was riding all of the momentum, undefeated, playing Oklahoma, the big dog in the conference. And so we needed to win this game in order to like really feel like we had a front foot on being in the college football playoff. And they were up 28 to 3 in this game against Jalen Hurts. Like

Ryan Hammer (1:03:07)
Yeah.

Evan (1:03:07)
it was the best start that I I mean, and that infamous score line of 28 to 3.

Ryan Hammer (1:03:11)
Yeah.

Evan (1:03:12)
Like we it was it was 28 to 3 in the first half. I think the halftime score was 31 to 10. And then Oklahoma.

Blanked Baylor in the second half and came back and won that game. That was the most deflating, like in stadium, in marina experience I've ever had, because it was the highest of highs and how crazy

Ryan Hammer (1:03:30)
Right, right.

Evan (1:03:32)
good. And then just being completely run out of the or run out of the field in the second half. Obviously, Jalen Hurts, we know how good he ended up becoming and and all that stuff. and you know, prepares to him on his current health stuff that he's dealing with right now with the Eagles. But that was that was so.

devastating because that ended up, you know, being pretty pivotal in in Baylor, not quite reaching what they wanted to that season. But it was like the first time in a while, really since like RG three, that Baylor had quite that

Ryan Hammer (1:03:59)
Yeah.

Evan (1:04:00)
level of of success. And it was certainly the really the only time for me when I was in school that I was like really felt that high. and they they had it and they they couldn't get it done.

Ryan Hammer (1:04:07)
Then you got a national

championship in basketball and the best team ever, so don't worry about it.

Evan (1:04:11)
That was pretty great. It was also during COVID, so it's a little bit little bit harder, but you know, we'll take it. That's

Ryan Hammer (1:04:14)
Yeah, it's and you were out of school at that point, right? So

Evan (1:04:18)
true. I was I was like I was still in school, but it was not in the state anymore I was doing remotely. So yeah. Mm-hmm.

Ryan Hammer (1:04:21)
Yeah. Yeah. Can I ask you one quick question also?

the famous Evan Mea coffee wall behind you. What's your favorite what your what are your favorite coffee beans?

Evan (1:04:30)
So I actually set this up as a scatter plot so that I could reference this. So the the

Ryan Hammer (1:04:36)
Wow.

Evan (1:04:37)
horizontal axis is the roast level. So over here on the left is dark roast and over here on the right is light roast.

Ryan Hammer (1:04:44)
Okay.

Evan (1:04:45)
And then the higher up you go is how much more I like the coffee. So if I'm like recommending

Ryan Hammer (1:04:48)
Mm.

Evan (1:04:48)
like a light Ethian Ethiopian roast, I'm like shooting up to here or over here or something. So like this this top right quadrant or really anything on this top row, those are those are my favorites.

Ryan Hammer (1:04:59)
Top

left is gonna be I might need some recommendations later. I'm a dark roast kind of guy.

Evan (1:05:03)
Yeah, you can screenshot this and and ask about any of them. If for any of you watching, here's my recommendations top row.

Ryan Hammer (1:05:09)
Okay, good to know. Top row. D I had

to I had to ask. I've always I've looked at it so many times, I had to ask.

Evan (1:05:14)
All right, Ryan. Thanks for being here today. Really excited to see how our predictions pan out. let everyone watching and listening know where they can find all of your content.

Ryan Hammer (1:05:22)
Yeah,

I appreciate you again for having me on. you're killing it as always. So everybody that's listening here is becoming a smarter person with every episode they watch and listen to. So shout out to you for doing that. My not my half, Evan's half, of course. but yeah, Ryan Hammer, Blue Blooded Pod, trying to get those socials and those accounts up. We're doing our best. We're gonna have you on very soon, I think, too. So

Evan (1:05:44)
All right, there we go.

Evan (1:05:56)
All right, next we are gonna talk a little bit about my new player projections model that I launched for this season. Wanted to spend a few minutes on this. If you want to catch the full detail of everything that is a part of this, go check out at blog.evnamia.com. I put out a post on Tuesday of this week called New Incoming Player Projections Model, and it basically goes over the methodology for how I have a new high school international and division two projections model. Basically

For almost every single player, really outside of JUCO players at this point that we have coming into Division I, in the past, I have basically had kind of generic baselines for these players coming into college based on their consensus recruiting rankings, but it wasn't really based on their actual individual skill set or statistics coming out of high school or wherever they came from. That's no longer the case. The accuracy of my incoming player projections have vastly improved after building these models.

So I basically have a model for predicting production from high school players, from international players, many of whom are playing professionally in Europe or other places before coming to the States to play in Division One and then Division II as well, transfers coming to Division One and kind of seeing the impact of all of them. So I'm not going to go over all the details, but for those of you who are regular watchers and listeners of the show, I did want to kind of talk about some of the broader takeaways of what this analysis kind of shows us across the division one landscape in terms of

Where talent is coming in the sport. Now, obviously, a lot of the emphasis these days is on returning players, on guys who have been in college for at least one or multiple years, because the reality is now that players can play up to five years in college, there is a lot of proven talent and reliability that comes with building your team around existing stars. And that's why many of the top teams in the preseason and likely this year.

Are going to mostly centered around returning college players and not new players. However, it's still important to figure out where this talent comes from and how important it is. So I have a top college basketball incoming players graphic, which if you're watching on YouTube is on the screen right now, showing the top 30 players. and I'll just kind of the I I will go over some of these names in a second, but some of the main takeaways here for me in looking at this analysis and kind of putting them all on the same scale of predicting.

Their per possession impact as a freshman in college, according to Bayesian performance rating, which is my player impact metric that looks at your value that you have on the offensive and defensive side of the ball on a per possession or per 100 possessions, kind of compared to the average division one player, with a rating of zero being an average player. So anything better than that is better than average. Anything worse than that is worse than average. So on this top 30 players, 19 of the top 30 are traditional players.

High school recruits who are ranked according to the recruiting services and kind of are of the normal way that you would consider freshmen to be 19 of the 30. Nine of the 30 are international players. the highest one being Quinn Ellis, who is going to be the point guard at St. John's this year, coming over from Europe. And then two of the top 30, and this was a little bit of a surprise, two of the top thirty are division two transfers. Now it might seem absurd to some.

To think that we have a division two player who's going to be ranked higher than Daron Rippey at Duke or Talon Kinney at Kansas or Marcus Spears. And the reality is, which I'll get into a second, some of these D2 guys, based on their track record and how previous guys have done in Division I have turned out to be really, really good. Not necessarily top 50 players in the sport per se, but really reliable players. So those are some of my main takeaways just overall. When we look at the top names

On the high school board. So I have like the top 25 players coming out of traditional high school ranks. We have the number one is Jordan Smith from Arkansas, who is just ahead of Tyron Stokes at Kansas, Stokes being considered the consensus number one in this high school class, potentially at a number one pick in the draft next year. And then Caleb Holt is at number three, and those have been the top three, kind of according to the recruiting services coming into this year. But then after that is where it gets a little bit different from that.

Dylan Mingo at Baylor is number four, Miles Sadler at number five, and then we have Cameron Williams at Duke, Quentin Coleman at Illinois, Christian Collins, USC, Baba Ola Dog Oladun, I'm not sure how to pronounce his name at Maryland, and then Marcus Spears, who reclassed at Texas at number 10. Now, the main thing to take away is I don't want to talk right now about the ordering of these players. You can kind of learn more about that on the blog. But one of the big things that is a common

question that people have when looking at my preseason player ratings every single year is usually people are surprised by how relatively low I have the top freshmen in each class compared to the rest of players nationally in terms of where they rank. So like right now this year, Jordan Smith and Tyron Stokes with a projected BPR of seven, that lands them outside the top 30 players nationally.

And that is not how most people would talk about these top freshmen, nor in most years. Now, in general, my models have been a little bit more maybe pessimistic or realistic, if you would say, about expectations for top freshmen in previous years, because oftentimes we will end up having a freshman who ends up being a a first team All-American or several who are second or third team.

But we can't always guarantee which ones they're going to be. And so some of them really hit. And then some of them are like solid high major starters, but may not actually have quite the level of production that matches their MBA hype, if that makes sense. There have been lots of examples of this over over the previous year. So in most seasons, I have often had the top like maybe five or six freshmen in the top 100 nationally going into the year, and that seems much lower than how many fans, especially fans of a team that has one of these freshmen.

We'll often talk about them being a top 25 or top 15 player before the the season starts. And the reality is some of them will be that way, but many of them will not. And most people are just really excited about someone they haven't seen play in college yet, which is totally understandable. However, one thing I will point out this year that stuck out to me more than the actual ranking is where their actual projected BPR would sit in previous seasons. Because basically, while

The Stokes and Smith, the two highest high school players this year, are outside the top thirty. If they had been in a previous season, they would often be ranked higher nationally compared to many of the other players that are in the sport. So for example, if Stokes and Smith had been in the 2023 preseason class, their number would have been more like 18th best nationally. If they had been in 2022, it would have been 13th best.

And in 2021, it would have been eighth best. So five years ago, they would have been in top 10 players in the country coming into the season, according to my projections model, with the exact same statistical profile. What that means is that the quality of players in the sport at the very top is just so much better this year and in recent years than it has been really before pre NIL. Like when you look at the top.

Players in the country this year at evanmia.com. So many of them are juniors and seniors who or some even sophomores, who would have graduated early to go to the NBA draft and have a speculative chance at a second round pick, or would have just like only played four years in college and then gone and played professionally. And now so many of them are back playing college basketball. I mean, you look at guys like Tyler Tanner, Patrick Ngongba.

Thomas Houk, Flory Badunga, you know, like Malachi Moreno, all of these guys, Aiden Holloway, like all of these guys potentially could have been NBA picks this year and all chose to come back to college. And there's a wealth of other players, especially internationally, guys like David Merkovich and Tomislavisic and other guys from you know ill international guys who wouldn't have been in college basketball previously.

So to me, this speaks just as much to just the returning talent that we have in the sport overall, such that the best freshmen this year, though it is a bit of a down class, are especially low this year just because of all the other talent in the sport. So that really sticks out to me as well. But I think the other thing to note too here is that, like last year, according to this new model, Cameron Boozer would have been the second best player in the country in the preseason last year. Cooper Flagg two years ago would have been the number one player in the country. So we've had.

Two previous classes that were absurdly great at the top, and this class is just a little bit down. but I certainly think we're gonna see some bright stars emerge from this class. Just matters who we are going to see.

Now, a few notes on the top international players. This model was the hardest of the ones to build because not only do you have to account for like how good were your stats playing in Europe or wherever you were playing, and what was your age and what was all of these developmental things, but also the context of like what team were you playing for and were you getting reasonable minutes for them? And how much does that matter? What's the league that you were playing in? What's the domestic or continental competitions you were playing in? All of the level of competition stuff matters a ton because

A lot of people, myself included, without knowing more about international basketball, don't really know like which teams or which players are good and and if a player putting up great numbers means anything based on the context of who they're playing for. So a lot of the modeling challenge with this came from number one, figuring out what is the prestige of these leagues and teams and how much does that matter to predicting college production for these players who are coming from Europe. And then the second is just we don't have a very large data set of players who have.

Formerly been professional players internationally in Europe or otherwise, who have then come to college and we have reliable data on saying, like, how does all of this stuff translate to college production? And so, because of that, I think my model is only going to continue to become more accurate over the next several years as we get more and more players with more data s data points to train this on. So take that as you will.

The top player, as I mentioned earlier, is Quinn Ellis at St. John's. Salu Niang, who just got cleared, at least as of now at LSU, is number two. And then there's a couple older guys who I think could make a really big solid impact. Juan Fernandez for South Carolina, Roko Prek Prekachin, I'm not sure to pronounce his name at Penn State, and Montes Rubistavicious at Auburn. Again, pardon me, we'll all learn these names together as they start playing and showing us how good they are.

are in the top five. LSU has a couple other guys in the top 10. And then it's worth talking about. You might be asking, where are Joaquin Boomchay Boomchay at Duke and Nicola Kusterica at UCLA? Because these are two 17-year-olds who are being talked about as they're going to be in college likely two years because they are not eligible for this year's NBA draft. So they would be in the 2028 NBA draft, and they're being talked about as already potentially the top two picks in that draft.

And if you've been paying at all any attention to the preseason at all, Boomchay Boomchay at Duke is getting a lot of hype as potentially being another amazing Duke freshman or or young young talent there. And I only have them ninth and tenth on this list. Now, I will just say up front, I think if you were pointing out any potential player evaluations I have in the country that I think are most likely to be wrong, it is these. And the reason for that is as I mentioned before.

Because both of these players did not come from traditional high school ranks. They were not rated by the recruiting services. I don't have AAU or high school stats on them. And the they don't, they weren't old enough to have like serious senior level professional minutes yet in Europe. They've obviously shown a lot of flashes in playing professionally and playing for their international teams, but I just do not have a lot of data on them or their type of prospect yet to actually like based on Higgsort.

Historical examples point to they have a similar profile to this player who was 17 and came to college and then ended up being a number one pick or whatever. There's just very few examples of that. And so because of that, my model is just very kind of conservative on these predictions for both of these players. So I would not be surprised if they're both much better than this. And I right now I have Duke number two in the preseason. If Boomchay Boomchay, instead of being the

What 28th best player, a best incoming player according to my model. If he ends up being top ten even or top five, which is what some Duke fans think, then that would just kind of slot probably move Duke ahead of Florida, at least if everything else stayed the same. So that already shows how optimistic my model is about Duke. and I think UCLA also has an argument to be even higher than where I have them, which is I have UCLA at twenty-two. So,

You know, just take that for for what you will there. And then final note is Division II, as I mentioned earlier. I was surprised to find after building this model on looking at statistical profiles of previous Division II players who have had good production in Division II, have transferred to Division I. What have they done in their first year in Division I? There are a lot of really good quality contributors who have been like

Top 500 players in the sport. And we're talking about a sport that has over 5,000 players. So top 10% in the nation already in their first year in D D1 after transferring from D two. And so when you look at the top projected D2 players in the country, Pace Prossert, Siena, and then Bonaventure has two players following their their head coach from Division Two, Zach Philip Philipowski, Philipkowski, and Benjamin Bill. But Lamar has a top five D two transfer, Liberty has a top five D2 transfer.

The numbers on these guys in terms of projected BPR are all above a three, which many high major teams would love to get someone of that quality on their roster. And yet none of them have taken any of these D2 guys. This list of the top 15 transfers from D2 are all going to mid major destinations. But we have had examples in previous years of guys being really good at the mid major or high major levels coming from D2. Elijah Freeman at Auburn last year, Wes Ennis.

at South Florida, Jeremy Dent Smith at Stanford, and several others have been really great coming from Division II with similar profiles coming from Division II as these guys who I'm talking about now. So I'm really excited to see what level of splash these guys can make, especially being probably some of the better players of the mid-major ranks. And I would not be surprised is as this becomes more prevalent and people realize the quality at the very top of the division two ranks in terms of guys who have been.

Just outstanding at that level and can translate to division one. I would not be surprised if we see more high major teams looking at division two transfers. So something to keep in mind there. I thought that was probably the most interesting part of this analysis I did. If you want to read more on that, please go visit my blog article. I think I'm gonna link it in my show notes as well. and if you want to dig more into some of these specific player profiles for every single player, because I now have this incoming projections model.

I have individual, not just offensive and defensive grades, but I have grades for all of these guys before they've even played a single minute of college basketball in terms of predicting their scoring, rebounding, playmaking, steals, blocks, all of that stuff, and then comparing it to where I predict all of their division one players. So like you can look at Tyron Stokes and see that he is in the 98th percentile in his projected scoring volume. things like that. And you can also look too on the website if you are a subscriber.

At lineup projections too, you can see projected lineup efficiencies for any hypothetical lineup in the country, even if they haven't played yet. And I actually list for every single team their top projected lineups going into the season. And then based on how those lineups actually start performing during the season, those estimates will start going up or down, but still taking into consideration how good all of those players are individually, along with their lineup strengths and weaknesses and position and role balance and stuff like that. So a lot of really cool stuff to check out there.

On the website if you're a subscriber at evanmia.com.

Evan (1:23:04)
Well, that is all I've got for you guys today. We have one more preseason episode before the season kicks off. Next week, I'm gonna do kind of a full preseason preview or season preview, if you will. I've got Isaac Trotter joining me next week. I've got a lot of fun stuff planned. We're gonna talk about just more national picture, top players, things to watch out for, a bunch of different interesting stuff. So be tuned for that. Next week as well, I will also have our first listener contest.

Of the season. For those of you who are faithful listeners, you'll have the opportunity to win some free Evan Mia merch. And as always, this is an ad free show. I'm gonna read off a few. I love to read from time to time Apple Podcast review comments, Spotify comments, and YouTube comments if you watch on any of those platforms. Love to read those from time to time. Got a few YouTube ones today, Justin underscore Blair.

Said totally have vibes and history of the game guy here, but love this angle of the game. Appreciate each of your hard work and this content. Go Gators. Thank you, Justin. Connor4183 on YouTube said, We are so back. Yes, indeed, we are. And then Max Poker 2479 on YouTube had a good question. He said, Is there consideration in your model that some teams have been practicing together and installing schemes since early summer?

And others have multiple players that got to campus in September. Great question. the simple answer to that is no. The fact that we have this odd off season when you have some teams who have been together since the early summer and others who are just adding players last minute. There is no historical precedent for this, nor is there a way for me to actually capture data on like how this would translate to real outcomes in the past and how I can train a model on that.

And so I am not someone who goes in and kind of fudges or or puts my thumb on the scale in order to kind of make any of the stuff make more sense if it's not based on historical statistical evidence. And so because of that, no, I'm not treating any of these teams like, you know, say Kansas differently than a different team who has had their their roster together or LSU, you know, who's just has all these pieces in and out. just not doing that. And the reason for that is not because I don't think it could matter, but because

That's not really in the realm of what I do is kind of like making fudgy adjustments based on stuff like that. So if that some of that stuff ends up mattering, that's certainly not going to be some context to context that my model has, but certainly something that I will be keeping an eye on for sure. so thank you for those comments. This is an ad-free show as always. So these types of comments and five star reviews on Apple and Spotify really help. If you're watching on YouTube, please subscribe to the channel. That really helps as well.

Thank you guys for listening. I'm excited for another preseason episode next week. Until then, take care.