The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:00)
Hey everybody, welcome to the Evan Mia College Basketball Show. I'm your host, Evan Miakawa, and... You hear that? You hear that? This is the greatest piece of paper on the planet. My bracket is filled out with teams, fully blank, literally filled it out with pen during the selection show on Sunday. Cannot wait to break this down. It's gonna be an incredibly fun episode today. We have four individual region previews.

With four fantastic guests today, Terrence Oglesby, Isaac Trotter, Brian Routh, and Jim Root have all taken time out of their busy schedules to join me today. So we're gonna be doing full in-depth analysis of the entire bracket. In addition, I'm also gonna have some analysis of my own on a lot of the big graphics and metrics that I track for the bracket, talking about title favorites, teams that I think you should feel comfortable picking to win the whole thing, under-seated teams, these are teams that are going to have

a lot of bracket value when you're putting your picks in. We're gonna talk about the kill shot and how all the tournament teams look there. We're also gonna talk about relative ratings and how teams play up or down to competition. A lot of great stuff today. Before we get into the region previews, I do just wanna give some initial thoughts on the bracket. Kinda as I saw it come out on Sunday. First of all, I think this is a really strong group of 11 seeds.

Texas, SMU, NC State, and VCU are all rated better than some of the 10 seeds that we see, like UCF and Missouri. So I think the 11 seeds have a good chance of causing some noise in this tournament, especially given that some of the six seed teams are dealing with injuries, so the 11 seeds are strong. Vanderbilt and St. John's, think, were pretty under-seeded as fives. Could make an argument resume-wise and team strength-wise that they are better as fours or threes.

So that was a bit tough for them, but I think they're gonna be very strong as five seeds. Miami, Ohio ends up getting in the tournament, but as a ⁓ first four team in Dayton, pretty disappointed by that one. I get why the committee put them in the first four, but I would have loved to see them get a straight pass to the first round. As it is, they will be playing ⁓ SMU on Wednesday night to get into the round of 64.

So we'll be cheering them on in that one, but tough to see them not get straight in. In terms of chalkiness this year, I think this is one of the big storylines. This year, there is a, according to my tournament simulations, there is a 78 % chance of a one seed winning at all. That's pretty in line with what we've seen historically since 2000. 72 % of the title winners have been one seeds. So this year it's even more likely than in years past.

And last year we saw something that's pretty abnormal. All the one seeds made it to the final four. Now, last year I think in retrospect the tournament looked very chalky, it was very chalky. Pre-tournament last year the chance of all the one seeds making it all to the final four was just 4%. This year it is at 9%. That is both very high compared to normal and also still not a lot.

We're talking about a one in 10 chance or fewer that we're gonna see an entirely chalk final four with all the one seeds making it. But 9 % is still higher than most tournaments. So that's something to watch out for. Those are my initial thoughts off the top, but we're gonna go ahead and transition to our first region preview, which is going to be in the East region. But I've got a lot of other stuff intermingled in the show, so you're gonna love all of it. Please stick around.

Evan (03:42)
All right guys, we're gonna get into our first regional preview. We're gonna do the East region and it is Terrence Oglesby back with us. By the way, Tio, you are the first repeat guest on this show, which is an honor for you. ⁓ So congratulations on that. We're talking about the East region today and we're gonna try and rapid fire through this thing here. Let's start with Duke because this has been a discussion online. My immediate reaction when I saw the path.

T.O. (03:53)
Let's go.

Evan (04:07)
for Duke as the overall number one seed in this bracket to get to the final four, I think they got a pretty rough draw because if they play a second round against Ohio State, who I think is favored and will more likely than not win that game against TCU, Ohio State I think is more of like a six seed quality in this tournament. They're 20 second overall on my side. Then you're talking about a sweet 16 game against either St. John's, who I have as the 11th best team in the country. That's a three seed quality.

Or Kansas, who's 21st, but has Darren Peterson. So maybe the most skilled, talented player on the court. So who knows? So who knows of that one? And then you go down to the other side. And I don't necessarily think this was the absolute worst draw, but Duke versus a potential Yukon game, Dan Hurley. I don't think they're going to be excited about that. Or you potentially have a Elite Eight rematch against Michigan State, which was the Zion Williamson matchup from 2019, I think it was.

T.O. (04:43)
So who knows?

Evan (05:06)
So overall, I think that they could have had this a lot easier, especially in the second round in the Sweet 16 than they got. What are your thoughts on their path here?

T.O. (05:14)
I think Ohio State's a very good team. think, ⁓ debler has done a nice job with that grew and I'm happy they made the tournament because I think debler's a good coach and I think he's still young and he's still figuring things out, but he's going to continue to get guys there at Ohio state because you're always going to get guys at Ohio state. Cause let's be honest, that region of the country is loaded to the brim with talent and they grow up Buckeye fan. So, ⁓ along with the amount of cash they have, it's obviously a lot of it's going to Ryan day conversely.

You know, basketball has enough money to to be successful. That all being said, we can wax poetic about Bruce Thornton. We can wax poetic about all these guys from Ohio state. Duke has cam boos are in Ohio state. Point blank period. That's what happens. I do. I think they got a rough draw. No, not particularly. I look at their first round game. Sienna love Jerry McNamara. Not going to be an issue. Bang. Game one. Number two cam boos are is going to have his way against some of the bigs from Ohio state.

I don't think that's a huge deal. And then as you continue going, I think their first real test comes against St. John's in the, the sweet 16. And I think Patrick Gungba is going to be back for the second weekend. At least people are optimistic that that's going to be the case. And I think that's where the swing play of Gungba comes into play in that second weekend. I think they can get through the first without him in the second weekend. I think they do need him to match up with Zubiedu for, or whoever the, the ⁓ big is for. ⁓

that makes it to that sweet 16 round, whether it's Kansas and Florida, but doing good, they're going to have to have extra guys, right? So, ⁓ I think Duke, you know, you look up and down the East bracket, a lot of legendary coaches, you can only play one at a time. So I like the, I like Duke's draw. ⁓ you can't play them all at once. You can only play the ones that's in front of you. And I think Duke has a clear advantage over Ohio state and, whoever's going to be after that.

Evan (07:07)
Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with you that I think Duke still should be able to handle their business and if they lose that game, that's on them for losing. So I'm not really doubting their ability to get this done, but that was something notable. Okay, I want to ask you, looking at the East region, what is the most, I'm holding my paper bracket right here, which I'm going to be frequently referencing. literally filled this out during the, I haven't filled it out either, still blank, still blank, okay. What is your most,

T.O. (07:13)
Sure.

I got the same one. I haven't filled it out though.

Evan (07:36)
intriguing first round matchup, the one that you are most excited to watch and think has the most juice here.

T.O. (07:42)
First round matchup. think Louisville in South Florida is going to be a great game. ⁓ South Florida has a guy named Isaiah Nelson who was American Conference player of the year, defensive player of the year, newcomer of the year. Basically any of the year award he that he was eligible for he got. He's terrific. But I also, you know, on the flip side of that South Florida, while they are tough and Brian Hodgson has done a terrific job there and he may or may not be the next head coach at Syracuse. We don't know that information. I'm just speculating, but

I think as tough as they are as physical as they are, there is a big difference between being big and physical in the American Conference and being big and physical in the ACC. Louisville is not big and physical in the ACC. However, you look up and down the lineups for both team. Isaiah Nelson's obviously listed 69610 after him. I think there's one other guy that's listed pretty tall. That's it. The rest are 6566 that plays right into Louisville's hands. Plus you have all this extra shot making so.

Wes Ennis, who was terrific not only this season at South Florida, but he was awesome at Lincoln Memorial last year as well. That dude was playing division two basketball. Was that fair? I don't think so. That all being said, I think Louisville matches up well. They're going to make shots. I think Louisville runs into some problems in round two, but I think Louisville can take care of business against the South Florida team. Who's good, but they also looked overwhelming against their competition in conference play. They're not going to be overwhelming against little.

Evan (09:07)
Yeah, that's also my favorite first round matchup and a couple things for me on this one. I think South Florida will have the best player in this game in Isaiah Nelson. He is rated the highest on my site in terms of his overall player value. Obviously, if Michael Brown Jr. is healthy and playing well, he's the most talented player, no question. But in terms of what Nelson has done in terms of his production, he's been the best player in the American Conference, by far the best player defensive player in that conference.

He averages 16 points a game, 10 rebounds a game, shoots 64 % from inside the arc. He's an elite rebounder, prolific scorer, amazing defensive impact. But I think Louisville, their strength in this game will be their depth. And this is something I highlighted some last week. There have been questions about where the, you know, the top end guys and how well they perform down the stretch, but Louisville has a lot of very quality players. And I think that will be a factor for them. My game prediction for that game is Louisville by six.

I give UCF a 29 % chance of winning that game. I think one interesting thing here to monitor is Louisville likes to play fast and South Florida is 12th in tempo. So I think that actually might play a little bit into Louisville's hands. So we'll see about that one. Yeah, on my site in terms of their predicted tempo. So these are both teams that are like to play fast and USF is even faster than Louisville, but I think that's a good thing probably for Louisville in this game.

T.O. (10:19)
12th nationally in Tampa.

Evan (10:32)
St. John's versus Northern Iowa. I'll just briefly mention that one. I really wish that Northern Iowa, I was really excited about them coming into this tournament. St. John's is a brutal draw for them. And so I think that St. John's will be able to handle business there, but that's a game that I'll be watching. ⁓ Both those teams are fairly erratic in terms of their game to game consistency, according to my metrics. So maybe we get a bad St. John's game and a good Northern Iowa game, but ⁓ I think

St. John's should be pretty comfortable there. Let me ask you this, what is your, outside of the teams you've already mentioned, or if you wanna go re-talk about one of those, what is your favorite team in this region outside of the obvious ones that you think could do well, that you could cause some noise here?

T.O. (11:18)
I'm looking squarely at time as those Michigan State and there has been a couple of years where I have picked against Tom is that does not go well and it does not go well at all for anybody. ⁓ I look at their first round matchup against North Dakota State, North Dakota State has some guys that are talented, but Michigan State just so tough mentally and they're going to take care of the glass and they have Jeremy fears who's tough as nails and Cohen Carr who could break a game open with just two points. That's ⁓ that doesn't make sense. Analytically, I'm sure.

But he changes the course and the feeling of a game over the course of what, two fast breaks. So I like Michigan steak, Michigan steak, Michigan state simply ⁓ because of their toughness, because of Izzo. And I think they have enough to get things done. Their matchup with Yukon. I have Michigan state beating Yukon ⁓ to get to the elite eight and play Duke. And then it gets interesting.

Evan (12:14)
Yeah, that Michigan State, Yukon game. Obviously both teams have to get there. Yukon has to probably beat UCLA or UCF. Michigan State likely the winner of South Florida and Louisville. But that game right there to me is about as big of a coin flip as you are gonna find in this tournament. And right now I think when I'm filling out my bracket, the choosing the winner of that game, if it is Yukon and Michigan State, is probably one of the biggest decisions that I'll have to make. Because right now my site predicts that it's basically being Yukon

favored to win that game or chance of winning that game 50.1%. So it's basically right on the line. That does account for Silas Demery being ⁓ questionable. Otherwise, I think the line would move a little bit in Yukon's favor. I mean, that is as good as it gets for a two seed versus three seed sweet 16 game. And I agree with you. Both of these are incredible coaches. Tom Izzo does this regularly in the tournament. We've seen him be in this exact type of spot.

T.O. (12:48)
Cool!

Evan (13:12)
and get to an Elite Eight, get to a Final Four before. So that matchup to me intrigues me massively. ⁓ The other team I'm looking at in terms of having some heat to them, obviously ⁓ not a given that they would advance more than a game, but Ohio State. I have liked Ohio State most of the year in terms of how good they are relative to how well they've performed in terms of their resume and things like that. This team was kind of on the cut line a couple of weeks ago. They're firmly in.

They have won four or five and they lost by just four points to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. Bruce Thornton, think after Cameron Boozer, who is the best player in the country, I think in that matchup, Bruce Thornton will be the best player on the court. That does mean something to me. It's not a given that they'll get past TCU. give Ohio State a 64 % chance of winning that game. But like I mentioned earlier, I think Ohio State is more of like a sixth seed in terms of how good they are and they're seated as an eight here. So.

Now again, very unlikely that they're going to beat Duke because Duke is great, but of all the eight seeds that could beat the best team in this tournament, I think Ohio State is one of those and would not be shocked if we get a really, really good Duke-Ohio State second round game. And honestly, this whole region with Duke, top left of your bracket, best player in the country, you got Michigan State on the bottom.

It's just, goes back to the Zion year for me, where you had Duke in a absolute battle against UCF in that second round game that went down to the wire. That was an incredible game. Then we got Duke versus Michigan State in the Elite Eight. It just, there's a lot of parallels here for me there. So that would be theater if some of that played out the same way. In terms of picking the overall winner of this region, are you looking anywhere else other than Duke or is it pretty much Duke is a lock for you?

T.O. (15:06)
Duke is about as close to a lock just because they just find ways to win. And I think John Chayers best coach in the sport this year. That that's where I stand on that. I think he's been outstanding this season. And, so I would probably go Duke that referring back to Ohio state. had them earlier in the year when they lost a pit on a buzzer beater from half court, which was unbelievable. I love their guards, Bruce Thornton, John Junie, Mobley. They have some guys that could really make shots. They're efficient.

Evan (15:26)
Yes.

T.O. (15:35)
⁓ and Bruce Thornton is like one of the, top five to 10 Buckeyes to ever play at Ohio state. I love their story. Tough draw for them. I think they get beat, but they could make it really interesting to go along with what you say because of style play and the fact that they're spaced out and they're going to be able to find some shots. That all being said, Duke's defense, according to yours is fantastic as well. So interesting to see how that plays out, but I have Duke going all the way through.

And didn't when they played UCF, wasn't it? What was the guy's name that was like seven foot seven? There's Taco Fall. Yeah, so that was that was a fun game. But I think Duke makes it all the way through, especially with gun but coming back and they have enough decision making at the end of the game with cam booze or at the point guard, which is what Duke does in the last five minutes of the games close to where they're going to be fine. I think they're gonna be fine. Will they miss Caleb Foster? Yes. Do they have enough ancillary shot making and playmaking? Yes.

Evan (16:06)
Taco fall? Yeah.

T.O. (16:29)
And ⁓ Duke's massive around a perimeter too. So I feel like they can guard some of these better three point shooting teams.

Evan (16:36)
Yeah, I will briefly touch on the injury impact for Duke because I've been monitoring this closely of what is the projected impact on Duke because of not having Caleb Foster likely for most, if not all of the tournament and Patrick and Gungba maybe not playing right away in this tournament. And ultimately in terms of my sight and how I adjust for injuries, a lot of times when you have a star player or a top three player go out, you'll see a much bigger difference. And Gungba,

counts right now as their second most valuable player, but they have so many other guys on the team who are capable of filling in. They obviously didn't look quite at full strength in the ACC tournament, but they still were able to get across the line without N'Gongba and Foster, and those were their first games that they had really played with that permutation. They were able to figure their way out. Caden Boozer has been playing a lot better recently. So I'm with you. don't think that the, let's assume N'Gongba is healthy for the games that matter.

and Foster is not, I don't think that there's enough there to make me massively be off of Duke if I otherwise were in on Duke. I just think they're that much better than everyone in this region. So as of right now, I'm definitely leaning, picking Duke here to at least make a final four. And I think they're still one of the, I would probably only put them really behind Michigan, even without Caleb Foster in terms of how good they are in this bracket. So I'm not that worried about Duke, but.

Anecdotally, we have seen crazy things happen and when you lose players like that, it can affect you a little bit. feel like looking at Auburn last year was an example of they were fully healthy by the time they got to the final four, but Jani Broome was, you know, in and out, kind of coming into the tournament. And I think that messed a little bit with their mojo. So again, it's not out of the question that this could affect Duke some and ultimately be the reason they get out earlier than expected. But that's not something that I'm counting on.

T.O. (18:20)
Yep.

Yep, I'm kind of in the same same boat just because the collective size of the whole unit is just impressive. And keep in mind to, you know, Malik Brown, who was oddly enough, like the

Duke was better defensively with Gung Bo on the floor as opposed to Brown. And I think that has more to do with stylistically what Brown was last year and the type of team that they had defensively last year compared to what they have this year and how that system works. Because last year, was a lot of steals. was a lot of, man, we're out closer to our guys. We're providing more pressure on the ball and on the passing lanes. This year, they're sinking in. That doesn't really gear well to him. ⁓ But still, I mean, you're talking about a guy with elite instincts. ⁓

be able to find a way to be successful. A lot of great coaches in this part of the bracket, but I'm with you. think Duke makes it all the way through just because they just do winning things. And I'm sure they pop up on the analytics too, but just watching them, they take care of the boards. They always rotate. It's death by a million cuts because they just execute and execute and execute relentlessly. So I like Duke in this one.

Evan (19:40)
Last quick question for you. We've kind of blown past Kansas, assuming St. John's is gonna make it to the Sweet 16, but Kansas, is Kansas, it's Bill Self, it's Darren Peterson. Do you think they have any shot at a Sweet 16 or an Elite 8, or are you kinda out on this group at this point?

T.O. (19:57)
I've

been out on Kansas for about a month now, full transparency. ⁓ I be honest with you, has more to do with the fact that I'm just tired of hearing about it. But I think, I think, you know, they do have enough to where they could make a run to the sweet 16, but you know, Flory, but doing good against cam, Boozer would be theater. I think it'd be a lot of fun. think Flory, but doing good against Zuby, edu for is going to be a great, great matchup because basically Kansas decided on one and not the other. And Zuby's turned into a hell of a player at St. John's. So

Little bit of a revenge game there. I do think Kansas could do it. They could make it to the second weekend, but I think they have a tough ride ahead because I really like Saint Johns.

Evan (20:34)
Yeah, I really have a tough time picking Kansas to get past St. John's just because I think St. John's is that good and their physical aggressive style of defense, which we saw, you know, multiple times this season, certainly in the in the Big East tournament final, where they pretty much handled Yukon from start to finish that that's going to cause problems for anybody. And for a Kansas group that has been inconsistent at best. And if you look at it recently, they have been a lot worse over the last couple of weeks than they were even in.

Even when they've been worse with Darren Peterson fully healthy, but kind of looking limited in recent weeks than they were when he was in and out of the lineup. It's been kind of weird. So that gives me pause there with Kansas. So yeah, think this is Duke's region. Thanks, Tio. This was awesome. ⁓ And I really appreciate your thoughts on this region and have a lot of fun this week.

T.O. (21:17)
Yep, same.

All right, we'll do thanks, Evan.

Evan (21:28)
Before we get into more region previews, I want to go ahead and talk about who the title favorites are in this bracket. And what I specifically mean is who I would feel comfortable picking as a champion in my bracket based on teams that have a realistic, semi-realistic chance of doing it. And I specifically have a rule for this, and it is if you look at the team ratings at evanmia.com

and you take the relative rating, which is the measurement that I have for overall team strength,

of the very top team in the bracket, and right now that would be Duke. Look at that number and subtract by seven. Every team that falls within seven points of that top team is in the title favorites tier, and the last 10 national champions have all been in that group on selection Sunday going into the tournament. So right now there are eight teams that qualify. Now if we had done this even two weeks ago, I think that list would have been a lot smaller. It would have been more like four or five teams.

But the top teams have come down just a little bit in recent weeks, specifically in the last week. Duke is dealing with injuries and Michigan ⁓ did not win the Big Ten tournament. Arizona looked solid, but Florida did not. So there's a little bit more opportunity there. And so there are currently eight teams that fall in the title favorites tier. And this would be my advice. Please pick one of these eight teams to win it all because any team outside of this will have such an insignificant chance of winning that it's probably not a good value pick.

So these teams are Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, the four one seeds, but then also two seed Houston, two seed Purdue, two seed Iowa State, and three seed Illinois. Those are the eight teams that fall in the title favorites tier right now. And if you look at the tournament probabilities at evanmia.com, which we will talk about more intermittently throughout the show.

Each of those teams has a 2.5 % chance or better of winning the whole thing. Now that doesn't sound like a lot, but most teams outside of the top 2-3 are not usually above 10-15%. So Illinois is down at 2.5%. That's fine. If you want to pick Illinois as a champion, that could happen. It's not an impossibility. So one of those eight teams, all of them have above a 2.5 % chance.

So an interesting as well, if we look at the overall clumping of those title favorites on the efficiency landscape chart, something that really sticks out this year is that ⁓ most of these teams are all much better defensively than offensively. There's a clump of teams, Arizona Duke, ⁓ Michigan, Florida, Houston, a lot of these teams are way on the right side of the graph here in terms of

how much better they are defensively and offensively. That is totally fine, but Purdue and Illinois kind of stick out of sore thumbs because they are much better offensively than defensively. So that's an interesting trend to monitor. ⁓ looking at Purdue, for example, they have a much better offense than a lot of these other teams. Now defensively, it's nowhere close, but offensively they stick out. if that's something that is appealing,

as a title pick of being, this is a very unique team, that is just a trend that I'm monitoring in this tournament because of how good all of these teams are. Most of these teams are defensively instead of offensively. So one of those eight teams, a lot of them being better defensively, very interesting trend going into this tournament.

Evan (25:00)
All right, we are back to Preview the Midwest region and I have the great Isaac Trotter with me here to do that today Isaac ⁓ I'm so excited to get into this with you. Let's talk about Michigan the one seed in this region I mentioned earlier in the show that I thought Duke had a pretty rough draw in their region in the east when I'm looking at Michigan's path to a Final Four obviously I think they're good enough to get there, but I also think they got it relatively easy And I want to see if you agree with this

I'm not really worried about a second round matchup ⁓ against Georgia or St. Louis. In terms of the four and five seed in this region, I have Alabama ranked as the 17th best team in the country and Texas Tech, after accounting for JT Toppins injury, is just a borderline top 30 team. So I think it's pretty light there. And then you get to the bottom of the bracket and it would either be likely two seed Iowa State, who I have ranked seventh, or Virginia 13th. So when you look across the board, I think Michigan, relatively speaking, got

weaker versions of these seeds, do you agree and do you think they're gonna have much resistance on their way to a Final Four?

Isaac Trotter (26:05)
I'm with you actually on this one. I kind of looked at this region. thought, well, know, Texas Tech a bit short handed. I think Alabama is a little bit flawed. think my concern, I think with Iowa State is just overall talent. This isn't one of the richest teams in college basketball. This isn't a talent laden roster, I would say. Virginia hasn't played up to competition at the elite level that you would theoretically expect from a number three seed.

So Tennessee, think has some flaws on their profile as well. So I'm with you. I think Michigan feels good about its draw. They've just been playing well for long stretches. And I think that's the most important thing with them. They're very, very consistent on a night to night basis. And their strengths really travel. You know, I think if you just look at what they do on a night to night basis, they're shooting.

60 % at the rim, their opponents shoot 45 % at the rim. That 15 % gap in Delta is one of the highest in the sports and I think it leads to such a high floor outcome. And in this draw specifically, I think you're feeling pretty good about Michigan's chances to make it to Indy.

Evan (27:05)
Yeah, I'm just going to go ahead and spoil this right now. I think Michigan is the easiest Final Four pick for me out of all the teams in this entire bracket in terms of getting there. I just don't think they have much resistance. And I think right now, let me check their odds at getting to a Final Four according to my simulations, 64%. So we're looking at more than a coin flip in their favor of getting going 4-0 in this region. And I also think too, like you mentioned, their athleticism travels. I think that we saw them lose to

Purdue in the Big Ten tournament. This was their third matchup. Purdue has played them three times. They've gotten to know them really well. I think Michigan is more likely to have the type of experience they had in the players era tournament where you go on the court against these guys and there's just nothing you can do to quite scout for them and scout for the athleticism, the length that they have. So I think it's gonna be a pretty easy path for them.

Let's turn to some of these other teams though. Let me go ahead and get your thoughts on looking at all these matchups that we have right here on my paper bracket. What is the most intriguing first round matchup for you that you're excited to watch and you think has a lot of juice?

Isaac Trotter (28:12)
I think SLU against Georgia is awesome. Both of these teams can really, really score. It might be first to 95 wins this one. And both of them are electric transition offenses, both ranking the top eight nationally in points per game in transition. So I think what we've seen lately is that teams are trying to guard SLU a little bit differently. They're really top blocking their off ball actions, really trying to like bottle them up off the ball.

And I'm curious to see if the athleticism for Georgia can do some of those same things. But the other part about this matchup is just like two bigs who are so important to their teams doing it very different ways, right? Like Sampdosa real, one of the best pure athletes in all of college basketball. I feel like he could like kiss the rim every single time he jumps and he can, he's just a freak show on the other end. Robbie Avila has been one of the top shooting centers in the sport. And you know, he can attack long closeouts really good with his shop fakes.

So I'm just like, I wouldn't say Robbie is an awesome athlete either. So it's just like, it's a very fun dynamic of Robbie Avila versus Sampdosa real two offenses that can really score. And whoever I think kind of like controls the other one in transition and how do you do that? It's like taking good shots, not putting yourself in bad positions with turnovers, especially of the live ball variety, whichever one of those two teams, like those two factors, like tilts one way or the other, I think could ultimately determine this one. This one.

This one should be banger.

Evan (29:38)
Yeah, this is a great shout by you and I pretty much have this more or less as a coin flip on my site and ⁓ yeah, looking at this game like that you mentioned it, both these teams love to play fast and the predicted ⁓ over under for this game is about 170 and that is comfortably better than every other game that we're gonna have in the first round most likely. So this should be, know, scores in the mid 80s for sure in this game. So I think that's gonna be a lot of fun. I love that shout.

Who are you picking to win that game because it really could go either direction? And I think these eight, nine games are some of the hardest to call off.

Isaac Trotter (30:14)
super hard to call. I personally just go with the better coach when I'm really in a tight bind. I think Josh Schurz will find a few more answers to the test here. I also like how Slough has big wings that are really good defensively. Like Dion Brown is a really good defender. Amari Mccotry can really guard. Kellen Thames comes off the bench and he's like, I think a high major athlete. I think all three of those guys match up really well against Georgia's top offensive options. So like Jeremiah Wilkinson,

Blue Kane who I love he's a beast even though he hasn't shot it well from three I think slew has the bodies to guard or defend George's guards and that's I think maybe the trump card for me in this one

Evan (30:53)
Yeah, the other matchup for me that I'm looking at in the first round that I am just absolutely in love with is five seat Texas Tech versus 12 seat Akron. I think this is probably going to be the most circled 512 game in terms of looking for upsets here and for good reason. Texas Tech is going to be vulnerable because they don't have JT Toppin. Now they have done just as well without him as they did with him since he got injured, but there is just no way that they could continue to get past that.

but just big picture, there's no way this team is as good as they were fully healthy than without JT Toppin. I think Texas Tech, part of what intrigues me about this game is not just Akron versus Texas Tech, but Tech consistently has overcome adversity this season and won so many games that they shouldn't have on paper based on what was going on. So to me, this game is a real litmus test of...

This team I think is good enough to make it Sweet 16 to challenge Michigan in a Sweet 16 matchup if they get there, but it's also not a given that they even get past Akron. So just how they play in this game will really set up for me how they're gonna do the rest of this tournament. Looking at this game here, outside of Christian Anderson, Texas Tech's depth has always been an issue and I think Northern Iowa has five players according to

Bpr at Evan Mia comm who would all be rated as more valuable than Luke man boy a who is Texas Tech's fifth best guy So once you start getting down towards the end of the starting lineup and towards the bench I think Northern Iowa actually may have an edge in some of that the other thing too is as As we've talked about often with Texas Tech They've got the ability to beat the very best teams in the country, but they have overall been very inconsistent from a game-to-game basis They are 350 third in game-to-game consistency at Evan Mia comm

So again, that means they're more ripe for an upset than if they were more of a consistent performance level. It means they absolutely can be elite in their best games, but could also drop a snoozer. And so I think that makes them a potential upset pick here. I have Texas Tech favored by five and a half in that game. You got any other thoughts on that matchup?

Isaac Trotter (33:04)
It's fascinating because I look at this game because Texas Tech has become a make or miss team. They take a bunch of three-pointers and they have to make those in order to survive right now. ⁓ That's concerning. Playing jump shot roulette in March is a little scary. Now granted, this team should take a lot of threes because they have a lot of really, really good shooters. Donovan Atwell, one of the best pure net shredders in all of college basketball. Obviously, Christian Anderson can fill it up. Jalen Petty has been terrific as well this year. You know, I think...

the how I can handicap this game is I think Akron would have a lot better chance if they're playing someone else a different five because I think Akron and Texas Tech are going to try to do a lot of the same things and Texas Tech just does what they do slightly better and Grant McCaslin I think is one of the best like game planners in college basketball and they're going to be able to find some mismatches. So like I was really excited about Akron getting into the tournament because I thought they made a lot of like they have a lot of those tendencies that could upset a team but I don't know if Texas

Texas Tech is the team to do it. I think it will be close. It's just I don't think that Akron can punish Texas Tech as much as they need to inside. That's my one concern. And if this turns into like a jump shooting contest, I kind of think Texas Tech jump shooters are better than Akron's. One perfect matchup though that could determine this one, Eric Mahaffey, he was Ohio State transfer, Big Ten like pedigree, pedigree or pedigree, that's right word.

Evan (34:28)
Yeah.

Isaac Trotter (34:29)
Really good defender. I think he's going to go up against LaJuan Watts a lot. And so if he can win those matchups against LaJuan Watts and those isolations, that is, I think, going to be a really big key for Akron to hang around us. I think Akron does hang. I think they will. But ultimately, I do think Texas Tech finds a way to win this one.

Evan (34:47)
Let's talk Miami, Ohio. They've got slated into the first four against SMU. We always knew that they were gonna be an underdog in whatever their first game was, just because according to the predictive metrics, they're so much worse than other teams on their seed line. Do you think Miami, Ohio has a shot to beat SMU in the first four on Wednesday, and then looking at their matchup against Tennessee if they were to get past that first one?

Isaac Trotter (35:14)
I do think they're definitely alive to beat SMU. I think they're more connected than SMU. No doubt. I think that they're a better team collectively than what SMU has. Now SMU has, think has a little bit better talent, but the player I'm watching this one is actually Ian Elmer. He's not their leading scorer, but he is one of the best defenders in the mid-major ranks. And he has a huge assignment against Jaron Pierre of SMU. I think if you're able to force Pierre into some tough shots,

Evan (35:29)
Yes.

Isaac Trotter (35:40)
Akron can hang around on the glass. think offensively they'll be able to dice up an SMU defense that if they don't have BJ Edwards, they're not super connected on that end when I've watched them, especially lately.

And then moving forward, they get past that, Elmer becomes even more valuable because then he'd get a matchup against Nate Amant as well. So one of the elite wing defenders in college basketball has a matchup against two of the best wings in Pierre and then obviously Amant. That will be a really, really fascinating chess match. I kind of think that SMU finds a way to beat Miami, Ohio, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Redhawks get it done in Dayton.

Evan (36:15)
Yeah, I think it's a bit close and Miami, Ohio has shown consistently the ability to win a close game. So I feel like SMU's blueprint is get that lead up to 15 because if it's close, Miami, Ohio has experienced doing this. I do think if the Red Hawks can get past SMU, Tennessee is going to be really tough. I would have Tennessee favored by 12 in that game. And when you stack that together, the odds of them, of Miami, Ohio getting to the second round and a potential game against that would be, you know, Virginia.

just a 3 % chance of getting there because of how tough the odds are, especially in that second gaming at Tennessee. So can do it, not super likely. I will ask you just in this region in general, outside of Michigan, who would you say is your favorite team that you think could, that you really like that could cause some noise kind of relative to their seed that you're watching for in this one?

Isaac Trotter (37:08)
Honestly, it's Tennessee and I think the draw here for Tennessee could theoretically make some real magic. The angle I look at with Miami, Ohio is Tennessee just has defensive ends up front and their ability just to control the boards, offensive rebounds. I think they'd win the possession battle pretty handedly in that one if they played Miami, Ohio or even SMU to be honest. Gives Tennessee an edge there and then against Virginia. Again, Virginia is a team that has...

played well against mediocre competition, but we really haven't seen them play up and beat awesome teams. Like I said earlier, Tennessee and Virginia, I haven't looked at your site of what you'd have it, but in my head, I think that's like a, maybe a two or three point like margin at, yeah, like it's, it gets, it's darn close to a pick them. And Virginia has struggled to, to guard guards this year. Their perimeter defenders are not that elite.

Evan (37:50)
I'm gonna pull it up right now.

Isaac Trotter (38:02)
That's scary to me against Jacoby Gillespie, against Nate Ament, the ability to be able to get into the paint and then obviously go to work on the offensive glass I think would be an issue. And I think Tennessee could really guard Virginia's actions really, really well. So I think there's a real chance that Tennessee could make the sweet 16 just because I like the draw. And then if they're playing Iowa State in that sweet 16 game, like.

That's going to be another brawl. Two of the most physical teams there as well. It wouldn't not surprise me at all if Tennessee makes the Elite Eight. I'm not picking it, but for their seed and their draw, they have a real, real shot.

Evan (38:35)
Right now, game prediction, if Virginia were to play Tennessee, Virginia by just a half point in that game. So that would be a really, really fun second round matchup. It's so interesting you picked Tennessee because my team that I was kind of eyeing for, who I think could cause some noise or at least is being slept on, is Virginia. And ultimately, I think that the takeaway for me as the winner of that game ⁓ will be in a good spot to make an Elite Eight potentially because for Virginia, I don't necessarily think in terms of

the metrics that they're better than their seed or something. just think probably looking at a lot of the other teams on the two and three seed lines, we look around the bracket like Michigan State, Illinois, those teams are probably gonna get a little bit more buzz than Virginia, but Virginia has just quietly been pretty excellent this season, a lot better than people thought with first year coach Ryan Odom. They've improved a lot over the last month. They almost beat Duke in the ACC title game.

They throttled Miami, Florida in the game before. either of these teams would be about a three, three and a half point dog to Iowa State in that sweet 16 game. So yeah, I think the winner of that game, either way, will have a lot of potential. Any other interesting things that you're watching for or bracket value advice that you would give to listeners in this region?

Isaac Trotter (39:56)
kind of like the draw for Alabama in the first weekend. I look at Hofstra. Hofstra is a team that really they're guard dependent. Again, if you look at their shot charts, they are very jump shot reliant. So are we taking Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead to out shoot LeBaron Filon, Littrell Ritzel and maybe Aiden Holloway if he plays in that first round game? Like, I don't know if I'm quite there with that. So I think if you then potentially look ahead to a second round matchup against

Akron or a Texas Tech team without JT Toppin. Like I don't think that Texas Tech would be able to hurt Alabama on the glass. So the first two matchups there for Alabama are pretty feasible because I don't think their biggest wart is that exposed. Now it would get exposed in the Sweet 16 against Michigan, but we could cross that bridge when we get there. And maybe that's a night where Alabama makes 15 or 16-3. So I think there's a lot of noise around Alabama right now. Like they haven't played well. Obviously Aiden Holloway got arrested.

Evan (40:38)
for sure.

Isaac Trotter (40:50)
this morning, there's gonna be a lot of negative buzz around Alabama, but I do like the draw for them to make the Sweet 16.

Evan (40:57)
Yeah, that entire pod is just super fun. Texas Tech Akron, Alabama Hofstra, that's gonna be one of the most fun little pods of four to watch. So whatever comes out will be interesting. I already said that I'm picking Michigan to win this region. Are you looking anywhere else besides Michigan or is it pretty much a closed door case for you picking Michigan to get to the Final Four here?

Isaac Trotter (41:17)
do pick Michigan, but I will say this, like I've got to watch Michigan up close and personal this week at the Big Ten tournament in Chicago. Multiple Habs in a row where their half court offense has really not hit on all cylinders.

I'm curious about that against an Iowa State team that can really heat you up and potentially force a bunch of turnovers. That could be a really concerning game and it would be in Chicago, which is a really close drive for Iowa State fans. like Michigan and Iowa State would probably fill the United center to 50-50. So I think Michigan is the right choice. And I think all the analytics and all the eye tests would tell you Michigan is the right choice and they are my choice. But there are a little bit more cracks in the armor I think lately that have started to emerge.

I'm still backing the Wolverines long term, but I wouldn't feel great about a Michigan-Iowa State Elite Eight game. Like that will not be an easy 40 minute game right there.

Evan (42:08)
Yeah, that would be a really, really fun game to watch. So we'll look forward to that one. Thank you, Isaac. This has been awesome. And I really appreciate your insights on this super loaded Midwest region. Have a lot of fun this week,

Isaac Trotter (42:20)
Of course, thanks for having me.

Evan (42:21)
All right, we are now going to get into my favorite piece of analysis that I do every year for the bracket, and that is looking at under-seeded teams. And if you've been paying attention to my stuff in the last couple weeks, you know that I did a preview of this a few weeks ago. But now we have the official bracket, we actually know where all of these teams are seated.

I basically look at and compare every team's seed to how strong they actually are, and pick out the teams that are significantly better.

than what's typical for their seed and especially compared to other teams in the bracket today. If we look at this group of under seeded teams, these teams historically advanced 69 % further or win 69 % more games than other teams on the same seed line. So these are often good picks, good bracket value picks to outperform their seed and do well in the tournament. Right now, there are 13 teams that qualify as under seeded. If we had done this,

A few weeks ago, there actually would have been a one seed in Michigan that was considered under seeded. Basically what that would have meant is they were that much better than the other one seeds and were a really great pick in terms of bracket value. Michigan and Duke still come close to qualifying, but they have come down just a little bit. So we don't have any one seeds. You have to go down to the five seed line to start getting our first under seeded teams, but there are two there.

St. John's and Vanderbilt, both under seeded. I think St. John's is the most under seeded team in this entire tournament. They are more of a three seed in terms of their quality. So getting a five seed is a little bit tough, but also makes me feel good about them compared to other five seeds in this tournament. So we have St. John's and Vanderbilt. And then on the six seed line, Tennessee and Louisville are also under seeded. And as we work our way down Ohio State as an eight seed,

Iowa as a nine seed and then there is a group of several 11 seeds that are all under seeded Texas SMU NC State and VCU all are under seeded now Texas NC State and SMU are all in the first four So only one of Texas and NC State will come out of that because they play each other SMU is playing Miami, Ohio in the first round in the in the play-in to get into the round of 64 VCU is straight in but

All of those teams are stronger than some of the 10 seeds that we've seen and so they could be pretty tough to beat in the first round. So all of those teams are teams that I'm eyeing. then Hofstra is the one big Cinderella that sticks out here. They are under seeded as a 13 seed. They play against Alabama in the first round. So there's some juice there. And then there are several 16 seeds that are under seeded. UMBC, Sienna are under seeded. Again, I'm not.

comfortable picking any of those teams to remotely come close to winning. But we'll mention them as inclusion on this chart. But all of those teams are the teams that I am specifically looking at for picking further in the bracket, maybe by a game or two than other teams on the same seed. Certainly St. John's and Vanderbilt stick out to me a lot because they are stronger than all of the five seeds at this point and a lot of the six seeds and below. So those are the under-seeded teams that you should be eyeing

As you're filling out your bracket for winning more games than you would typically expect for their seed and will carry a lot of value in your bracket as you decide who's gonna win which game.

Evan (45:45)
All right, it's time to get into the South Regional with the great Brian Ralph here, who's doing a lot of great stuff over at Basket under review, which you can check out over on the site there. We're talking South Region, that's Florida's region. Let's start there. As I'm looking at the bracket here, ⁓ I do think outside of, this is my opinion, outside of Duke, I think Florida's the other team that definitely has a tougher path to a Final Four. And I'm specifically looking at the Elite Eight,

potential matchup there because you're having either likely Houston who I have as the toughest two seed on the board or Illinois who have who I have as the best three seed on the board either one of those being your elite eight matchup So that to me is a bit tough I think that the matchups up to that point a rematch potentially with Vandy in the sweet 16 who they you know just lost to ⁓ I think that that has some intrigue there, but I certainly think the elite eight is tough and if we're just talking

Florida was in this exact left corner of the bracket last year, right? And they ended up winning the whole thing. And so part of me is like, I discounting them like a lot of people did last year, like I did last year in some ways? But this year's Florida team going into the tournament, according to evanmia.com, is weaker than last year's Florida team at the time going into the tournament by a little bit. So I do think they're vulnerable. What do you think about Florida's path to a final four and what could be the biggest hurdles there?

Brian Rauf (46:46)
Yeah.

I mean, the biggest potential hurdle is having to beat Houston in the lead eight in Houston, right? Like just that added layer of this, I'm sure is not something that Todd golden and that, that Florida fan base and team is, is exactly thrilled about. But I do think it does set up well for them from a matchup standpoint, just walking down, down through the bracket and their projected opponents, right? Obviously they should not have a problem with either Lehigh or Prairie view. If they do the way of bigger issues than how far they can go in the tournament.

But Clumpton and Iowa are two teams that have struggled with athleticism and struggled with size. Florida's got that in spades. So I think Florida's okay. Next round, Vanderbilt could obviously give us some trouble. Nebraska is a team that has been killed on the glass at times this year. Another team that also struggles with athleticism, particularly athletic front lines. There's Florida. And then you are to get to the lead eight Houston. Again, that matchup is tough. The one thing with Houston though, is they're not as good inside as they typically are. Right. And so you have this.

massive Florida front court that still there from last year has played as good as any front court in the country. The Illinois matchup, I think could be interesting because that is a more like for like kind of matchup. Then it comes down to who do you trust more in that in that matchup there? That's that's actually my lead aid is Florida, Illinois.

Evan (48:28)
Yeah, yeah, I think the the Houston angle is interesting because it's a rematch of the of the national title game the Illinois angle I just think that would be a really fun game But I definitely think Florida is gonna have their work cut out for them looking at other first round matchups What is the ⁓ first round game that you are most intrigued by that you're you're excited to watch and it's gonna be really interesting for you

Brian Rauf (48:49)
⁓ I'm probably most intrigued by St. Mary's in Texas A just because of the contrast of styles in that game, right? St. Mary's wants to play as slow as possible. A wants to play as fast as possible. No matter what, right? And St. Mary's has had success throughout Randy Bennett's tenure at getting opponents who like to play fast to slow down, to make them play at their style and make it more of a skill-based game, which leans in St. Mary's favor. I think A can still win that way.

Evan (48:54)
Okay.

Brian Rauf (49:18)
But what makes A different and what makes Buckyball different is they do not care if they go down 20 playing fast. They are still going to play fast no matter what. And so like that stubbornness is the perfect counter to what St. Mary's wants to do. I think it could be interesting. I think A is a better team than St. Mary's, but that battle of styles too should be interesting.

Evan (49:39)
Yeah, looking at the tempo stuff on the matchup preview that I have for this game, not only is St. Mary's outside the top 300 in tempo, but they also have a pace adjust that's in the negative, which on my site basically means they also play better in slower paced games. A &M's the exact opposite. They're top 20 in tempo and play better in fast paced games. So it's going to be who can impose their style more on the other team. I think that is a great shout. My most intriguing first round matchup.

And I think for me in this region, this is by far the game I'm most interested in. It's North Carolina versus VCU. And I think this game, it just has so many storylines to me. Another team in UNC who is, you know, ⁓ going to maybe be seated better than the quality of their team based on the fact that they have lost their best player for the season in Caleb Wilson. And right now, after adjusting for Wilson's injury, I have North Carolina as the 46th best team in the country.

matched up against VCU 43rd best. So I have VCU favored in that game by a point. Now Henry Vesar will be without question the best player on the floor in this game. But outside of that, like VCU has a good roster. I also think too, unlike Texas Tech who has not missed a beat without JT Toppin going down injured, UNC has looked worse without Wilson and they're 332nd in momentum right now on my site. you know, a...

amongst the 30 worst teams in terms of how much worse they've been performing compared to recently. Both these teams are really consistent game to game. So I think we're going to get a close game. Something to watch for me is North Carolina has been significantly better at home this season than they have been outside of that on the road, especially, but neutral as well. So how will that have an effect in this game? Neutral core, obviously against VCU and players to watch VCU wise, Terrence Hill,

was the second best offensive player in the A-10 outside of Robbie Avula. He's a very good playmaker, great efficient scorer. Branding Jennings, also a really good defender. So I think that one has a lot of juice, could go either way. Any thoughts on that one?

Brian Rauf (51:45)
Yeah, I got, I have VC winning that one as well. This is probably the most upset rich region, I think, or the potential for the most upsets, which is going to make it a lot of fun. The other thing with UNC five and four, since Caleb Wilson went out two and four against top 50 opponents. The three wins they got are like pit and just kind of bottom tier ACC teams. The guards for UNC as while they have been relatively consistent as a team, the guards have not been.

And you go against a VCU team. is not your typical, like havoc pressure style defense or VCU, but they are athletic and they're physical and they will get into you back in non-conference. played six games. VCU did against top 55 competition. I don't want to say power conference because New Mexico, think was one of the games in there and you know, some semantics for that stuff, but top 55 opponents, they were top 30 in the country.

in that stretch at forcing turnovers. They made it a point in those games really good underneath you. If you were relying on Kian Evans and Luka Bogovac and Derek Dixon to win a game for you, if you're UNC, I don't have a lot of faith in that right now against a team that's as good as VCU is.

Evan (52:52)
Yeah, another matchup that I'm intrigued by, likely be as close a game, but Vanderbilt versus McNeese, five versus 12. Vanderbilt, one of the most under-seated teams in this tournament in terms of how good they are and where they could have been seeded based on their resume, certainly make it to the SEC title game ⁓ on Sunday. I have Vanderbilt favored by 11, so I don't necessarily expect this to be a toss-up, but McNeese was in this spot last year as a 12-seat against Clemson.

As a five and they ended up completely throttling Clemson by what 30 points? ⁓ up until the end of there I think and ⁓ But this McNeese team though also a 12 seed They have not played very well up to better competition this year So that worries me against a very good Vanderbilt team in addition just on paper Last year McNeese going into that game against Clemson according to my game predictions had a 28 % chance of beating Clemson this year It's just 14 % against Vanderbilt. So we're not talking the same thing

Brian Rauf (53:26)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (53:51)
Do you think McNeese has any shot in this game or do you think this is a Vanderbilt runaway?

Brian Rauf (53:55)
I don't want to say any shot because that is disrespectful to McNeese, but I don't think they have any shot to win this game. One thing that worked in their favor in addition to just the strength of that team last year was their match. The style was something Clemson struggled with, right? And Clemson was hurt going into that game. I think it was Wiggins who missed that game for Clemson, which was a major impact for them. Vanderbilt plays the exact same way McNeese does just with better players and more talented players, right? And whenever you have that kind of stylistic clash,

Evan (53:58)
Of course.

Brian Rauf (54:24)
It tends to favor the team that has the better team and better athletes, particularly when you add in the fact that McNeese has struggled against higher competition this season. Vanderbilt, I think had faltered the last month or two down the seat, down the stretch, what they did in the SEC tournament. I know we can take tournament results with a grain of salt, but just, it seemed like they got back to having the edge to them that they needed to have that caused them to go and defeat it for as long as they did. Duke miles being fully healthy, I think plays a big role in that as well.

So while this is a 5-12 game, I would be shocked if Mignese won.

Evan (54:59)
Yeah, and just looking at this region generally speaking, I think outside of Florida and Houston, who are the two best teams in this region, obviously Illinois in there too. Vanderbilt, I think, is my favorite team, the team I'm most intrigued by, the team I think could cause the most noise. ⁓ I mentioned they're under seeded. They just beat Florida. They had a close game against Arkansas in the SEC title game. If you look at every team in this bracket that's outside of the one through three seed lines, my tournament probability

simulations have Vanderbilt as the best chance of making an elite eight outside of any of the top three seeds. So this is a team that I think I like how this is broken for them. Nebraska in the second round, if they end up playing Nebraska and getting past McNeese, obviously that will be a tough one. But a game against Florida, a team that they know really well that they've just beaten. feel like that maybe takes away a little bit of the the talent disparity because because I already know how to play them and maybe the familiarity makes it a closer game.

So I like Vanderbilt. Do you have another team in this region that you really like that could cause some noise that you're kind of on board with?

Brian Rauf (56:07)
I don't think Vandy gets to Florida. I think Troy gets to Florida.

Evan (56:12)
Ooooo what?

Brian Rauf (56:14)
Troy is my like sleeper team in this. They're the only double digit seat I have in the Sweet 16. There's got to be somebody, right? So Troy is the team. Troy has been inconsistent this year, particularly throughout Sunbelt play. It's why they had 11 losses. There aren't some really great team that's performed really well all the time. But there are three in one in Quad One and Quad Two games. When they have needed to play their best, they have brought it. Back to November when they went to San Diego and beat San Diego State.

Evan (56:16)
my goodness! Okay, tell me more.

Brian Rauf (56:44)
Followed that up, pushing a fully healthy USC team. Rodney Rice was not hurt yet. Chad Baker Mazzara was fully invested, had not quit slash been kicked off the team at that point. They took that team three overtimes. They play kind of similar to Nebraska where they spread you out. Victor Valdez and Thomas Dowd as a front court duo are incredibly versatile. I would consider them very Nebraska like their ability to shoot threes. Valdez can handle the ball, rebounded really high clip. Two high IQ guards.

inconsistent shooting inconsistencies throughout much of the season. But we get to the tournament. I care a lot more about the teams you've proven you can beat versus who you've proven you can lose to because everybody here is good. And Troy has proven they can beat good teams as much as any major and really any 13 seed has. I kind of think we get the best version of Troy in the tournament and they can be the sleeper here.

Evan (57:37)
I love this pick and your assertion that Troy has played really well in better matchups this year. Data wise, that absolutely checks out. If you rank every team in this tournament based on playing up to better competition according to opponent strength adjustment at evandmia.com, of all the tournament teams, Troy is number one. Number one out of all 68 teams in playing a higher level of basketball against the best teams on their schedule than the worst teams.

Brian Rauf (57:59)
like it.

Evan (58:06)
That's a good pick by you, I really like that.

Brian Rauf (58:10)
I like it. The second straight year, Scott Cross has brought in this team in the tournament. It's a vastly different team than last year's team as well. Taitin Connery was the core. They lost, think, four stars off that team. Took some transfers, but a lot of it was bench guys developing and here they are again. And I think play a dangerous style that could cause some problems here.

Evan (58:28)
All right, if we look at the bottom part of this bracket and it plays according to seed, we would have a potential Houston two seed versus Illinois three seed matchup in the Sweet 16. I think that is a really, really fun matchup. Wanted to get your thoughts on that because I would have Houston favored by three in this game according to the matchup preview. Both of these teams have been great and been labeled as potential title contenders this season, but have struggled in their best games.

Illinois is three and seven against top 20 opponents on my site. Houston is two and five against top 20 opponents. I think Illinois maybe was stronger in that category earlier in the season and has maybe fallen a little bit off. Houston maybe has been a little bit better recently, but that's certainly not an area that they have been able to capitalize on. Who do you think has the edge in this game and what are kind of your main thoughts on that potential matchup?

Brian Rauf (59:20)
One of the reasons this is tough too is because I think Illinois has the higher ceiling and has shown it can play at a higher level. But Houston has been far more consistent this season. Right. And so what do you value? Do you value the height or do you value the consistency? Keaton Wagler against Kingston Flemings is going to be a really, really fun point card matchup. I think the difference to me comes down to what Houston's front court play looks like. I mentioned that it's, it hasn't been as strong as typical Houston teams. Not that it's not talented, right? Jojo Tuggler is one of the nation's best defenders.

Evan (59:24)
Yes.

Brian Rauf (59:50)
Chris Sennack is going to be a first runner to be a draft pick despite being inconsistent this year because of the skill set he has. Those guys show up. I don't think it's a question. The problem is those guys have not always shown up and Milos, Suzanne and Emmanuel Sharp, as good as they are, have not risen to the level we kind of expected they would in the preseason. If they show up and can match Illinois' front court, then I think Houston wins. But I think less has to go right for Illinois to win, let's say. The one thing with Houston this year is

They're very good, but they are not as Houston like in the typical Houston areas. They're just okay on the glass. They're just okay defensively. I mean, very good in the context of the country, but just okay in terms of where they rank among your typical Houston teams. And that's what Houston has relied on to overcome some of the offensive droughts that they've gone through throughout Kevin Sampson's tenure. They haven't been able to survive those as much this year because they are not as good on the glass, not as good defensively. Probably lean Illinois because of that, but

doubted Houston a lot last year. You were very on me for that and you were correct. I don't want to do that again, but I would probably lean in favor of it.

Evan (1:00:56)
Yeah, that'll be a great matchup. in terms of just picking who's gonna come out of this region, Florida, obviously the most likely team, but if we're looking at a region to not go chalk and pick the one seed, I think this is definitely one of those regions. So outside of Florida, who are you looking at to go out of this region? For me, I'm not making my official pick till probably Wednesday, that's typically how I roll with this, but I'm probably not picking Florida and I'm likely looking at one of Houston, Illinois or Vanderbilt to come out of this region.

You might have Troy coming out of this region. Who do you got?

Brian Rauf (1:01:29)
No, I do have Florida coming out of the region. ⁓ This is the region I expect to be the most chaotic, maybe the first weekend or so. But I would be shocked if somebody other than Florida, Illinois or Houston made it to the Final Four. Right. And I think that's what we might see a lot of this year where we might get some upsets the first weekend, then the little chaotic. But we've talked all season long about how strong the top teams in the country are. And Florida was weak in the backcourt. They had gotten so much better since the beginning of the season.

They posted the ESPN graphic in this SEC tournament. know you posted that too about their shooting like 40 % from three in March where it was 28 % in non-conference play. I trust them and I trust the front court to get it done. Again, if Illinois' front court was a little bit more consistent, maybe you go with the Illini there. Maybe if Houston's front court was a little bit more consistent, maybe you go with Houston there. I trust the consistency of Florida. I think the Vanderbilt loss may have woken them up.

little bit because it came less than 24 hours after Todd Golden was talking smack about Kentucky as he as he should. He's the reigning national champion. ⁓ But I think it maybe refocuses this group and I think they get

Evan (1:02:38)
Yeah, I like that pick. All right, this has been fun. Brian, thank you so much. let's, I'm sure you'll have a lot of fun this week. I will as well.

Brian Rauf (1:02:46)
Let's hope Troy wins.

Evan (1:02:48)
I would love that. And I

am all on board. You have convinced me. You have convinced me that this is going to be ⁓ the tournament for choice. Let's make it happen.

Brian Rauf (1:02:56)
There you go.

Evan (1:02:56)
All right, it is time to talk about the kill shot. Our favorite metric in college basketball, tracking every time that a team goes on a 10-0 run in a game. And before I get to the graphic that looks at all of the tournament teams, I will just repeat the stats on this. If you have at least one kill shot, one 10-0 run in a game, you win 71 % of the time. If you have more kill shots in a game than your opponent, you win 81 % of the time. If you have two kill shots in a game,

You win 88 % of the time. And if you get one of these even longer runs, a 20-0 run, which we call an avalanche, wins 91 % of the time. So this is just a really key metric that tracks momentum and the ability to change the script pro or con for you or against you in a game.

So if we look at the teams in the tournament in terms of the number of kill shots per game adjusted for opponent that they go on and that they concede,

This gives us a really good idea of the strong teams in the tournament, the streaky teams, the consistent teams, et cetera. So going into this tournament, the strong teams are Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, Houston, Florida, Duke, Nebraska, and St. Mary's. All of those teams are much better than the rest of the country in terms of their kill shot differential. Looking at the number of kill shots that go on minus the number of kill shots they give up.

Michigan and Arizona by far the best at not conceding kill shots. And honestly, if there's one thing I care the most about with this metric for title contenders, it is looking for teams that are very reliable at not giving up 10 or run. So both of those teams are great there. Illinois is the best after adjusting for opponent at going on kill shots in this entire tournament. So they have the ability to flip the script in their favor better than anyone else. Love that Nebraska and St. Mary's are in this group as well.

So that is the group of strong teams in this tournament. If we go and look at the streaky teams in this tournament, these are teams that go on lots of kill shots, but also are very susceptible to giving them up. And what that means is these games that they're in are often pretty wild. They can go back and forth and no outcome is secure until the final whistle goes because, you know, these games could be flipping back and forth all over the place. So the teams in the streaky category are Iowa State, St. Louis,

Texas A ⁓ High Point, Georgia, Gonzaga, NC State, Iowa, and VCU. The two most noteworthy ones in there are Iowa State and St. Louis. Iowa State in terms of their ability to go on kill shots is just as good as a lot of those other strong teams that I mentioned. I think they're fourth best after adjusting for opponent in the whole country at going on kill shots, but they give up a ton of 10-0 runs in return. I think they've given up 16 this season.

which is way more than a lot of the other title contenders. So Iowa State, very capable at any time of taking the game over, but they're not super ⁓ safe with a lead necessarily. St. Louis, very similar. One of the strongest teams, I think Iowa State and St. Louis both lead in terms of just raw kill shots per game in the country, but they give up a lot, especially in bigger games. So something to monitor there along with a lot of those other teams.

On the flip side, we have the teams that I call least streaky or more consistent. And these are teams that don't go on many kill shots, don't give many up. It means often that their games are a little bit more, I don't know if you call boring, but maybe more ⁓ predictable in that if they have a lead, they're likely to win. If they don't have a lead, it's harder to come back in these games. Some interesting teams on this list here, Tennessee, Yukon, SMU, North Carolina, Miami, Florida, Texas, TCU.

Missouri, Ohio State, Northern Iowa, Wright State and Howard are also in there as well. Interesting to note those teams and just stylistically monitoring. They may not have the ability to, if they're down 10, it's gonna be a lot harder for them to come back and win that game, but if they're up 10, you trust them more with the lead. So those are some of the more consistent teams in the kill shot. And lastly, I won't go over all of the teams that are in the suspect category of.

They don't go on many kill shots, they're really susceptible to them. But the most notable ones here are Villanova, UCLA, Santa Clara, Miami, Ohio, and UCF. Those would be most of the high major teams in that group. Just makes me not feel great about trusting them ⁓ in a lot of spots in this tournament. So those are the teams that fall in the kill shot suspect category. I wouldn't use this as ⁓ a rule for picking teams in the tournament.

but generally speaking, stylistically especially, a lot of these trends tend to bear out and every single tournament team that wins a title often is really good at both going on kill shots but especially at not giving them up. So if we're looking for teams that are the really strongest in that category, I'm looking at Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Duke, all of those teams are great at not allowing kill shots against them.

Tennessee and Michigan State, St. John's, or some other teams in that category. If you wanna see the full graphic, you can see it on the latest blog article that I have up on evanmia.com that goes over a lot of these graphs. ⁓ But you can also see it on YouTube as well if you're watching there too.

Evan (1:08:21)
All right last region of the day, and we are doing the west region. I have Jim root here to help break us down This region for Arizona, which is the number one seed here. Let's start there Jim We've talked about all the other one seeds and their paths to a final four Let's do the same for Arizona here looking at their first round matchup or second round matchup Excuse me assuming they get past the 16 would be against either, Utah State or Nova

I'm not super concerned about that. Where it gets really fun is a potential Sweet 16 against either Wisconsin or Arkansas. If we get either of those teams, I think for me personally, this might be my favorite possible Sweet 16 matchup that we could see in this entire bracket just because Arizona has been so good. But both of those teams feel like giant killers in what they can do. Both have top nine offenses at Evin Mia and

Those are better offenses than what Arizona has. And if you actually look at a lot of the top teams in the sport, in the one seat area, they're all better defensively than offensively. And specifically in the Big 10 or the Big 12, excuse me, Arizona has the best offense and it's not anywhere near as good as some of these offenses that they might be faced later on the tournament. Like Wisconsin and Arkansas both had better offenses than any in the Big 12 this year. Arizona has played against Alabama and Florida who have good offenses, but that's intriguing to me.

And then obviously you have either Purdue or Gonzaga as the most likely options in the Elite Eight. A lot of fun possibilities here for Arizona. How do you feel about their draw and their path to a Final Four?

Jim Root (1:09:54)
Yeah, I don't think it's too bad. As you mentioned, the 8-9 game, not hugely worrisome for me. Utah State would probably feel a lot like when they went against Zach Eady in the second round two years ago and got completely demolished. And Villanova is short Matthew Hodge due to injury and just generally, think, has overperformed the talent on the roster, credit to Kevin Willard.

Arkansas Wisconsin game I hope we get those two to play each other in the round of 32 because it's going to be first to 100 maybe the first backcourt to combine for 70 points is the one that actually gets the victory there up and down generally Wisconsin actually plays high-scoring games now it continues to blow the mind of all my Wisconsin alma mater friends since that's where I grew up but yeah either of those backcourts now I do think Wisconsin maybe looks better as a giant killer maybe because we've seen it

and they've done it away from home. They've knocked off some tough, tough teams. They went at Michigan, they went at Illinois, they went at Purdue. Had Michigan on the ropes at the Big Ten tournament. Thanks to Austin Rapp's incredible explosion. Whereas Arkansas, still am a little skeptical of the interior play there. They played the one good front court, or the one really good front court in the SEC, and they got obliterated inside the arc by Florida. That concerns me.

Evan (1:10:54)
Wild.

Jim Root (1:11:08)
So if Wisconsin gets through, think I'd maybe have a little more worry for Arizona. Wisconsin's going to maybe try to beat him at the math game, hitting more threes because that's just not what Arizona wants to do. And I do think Nolan Winter is going to be back. I he went through the workout before the Michigan game in the Big Ten tournament. He's huge for them. He's got the best net rating on the team. He is huge for their defensive rebounding, particularly against that Arizona front line. Then you get to that Elite Eight game, whether it is Purdue or Gonzaga or

Evan (1:11:21)
Mm-hmm.

Jim Root (1:11:37)
My alma mater, the Missouri Tigers. This is an unintentional consequence. Yes, we scheduled the West region before we knew Mizzou was headed there. But don't worry, I'm not going to show the bias here. I do think it'll be Purdue or Gonzaga in that game. Gonzaga is the only other team in this region with a defense that's really worth holding up against Arizona's offense. And I know you mentioned Arizona's offense not being at the level that Purdue or Arkansas or Wisconsin is really at.

Evan (1:11:40)
Sure, sure.

Jim Root (1:12:06)
You know, you got to flip that around and see some of these defenses probably can't hold up against the physicality, the offensive rebounding of Arizona. That's been a strength of Gonzaga and you've got the coaching thread there with Tommy Lloyd having been on Mark Few staff for years and years. They play very similarly in terms of getting it up the court, play up and down, get early post touches and score inside. And then Purdue is just kind of the wild card with the veterans that they have. They're trending way up to end the year. They looked great in that big 10 title game.

They've seen big front lines in the Big Ten. They've seen Michigan. I think it's a tough path for Arizona. Does very set up well for them geographically. Only Gonzaga is like a West Coast team in this region. So everybody else is going to have to travel a ton. I do think it'll be Arizona most likely, but there's some spots where they could trip up.

Evan (1:12:56)
I've been doing this for every region, so I wanna ask you, looking at all of these first run matchups that we could have, what is the matchup that you are most intrigued by that you think will be the most interesting and that you're gonna be dialed in for when we get it?

Jim Root (1:13:08)
I cannot wait for I don't care who wins NC State Texas because I think either one is going to set up for a really fun game in the second round against BYU and AJ DeVance and Rob Wright. No defense really between those three teams. BYU down the stretch especially was like abominable on that end. NC State in Texas barely top 100 ish at times and two really good offenses. lot of shooting on the court in both those games even without Richie Saunders for BYU or all three of those teams. So.

Whatever that ends up being, there's a little geographical edge there for BYU, surely that's played in Portland. NC State and Texas have to get out there from Dayton, whoever wins. But just the amount of offensive firepower on the court there, I don't think anybody on NC State or Texas matches up overly well with Devonsa. Maybe Dailin Swain I could be talked into. But it just seems like there's going to be a ton of points in that game. And it's

kind of ripe for an upset because BYU is so short-handed with injuries this season.

Evan (1:14:09)
I agree. I normally don't pick ⁓ a 6-11 game where we don't even know the winner yet as my favorite, but I'm absolutely with you regardless of who wins between NC State and Texas. I think it's going to be close to a coin flip of who advances to the second round there. Just BYU real quickly, like every region has a team that is weaker than what they were earlier in the season because of a key injury. This is the one in this region with Richie Saunders being out.

And because of that, have BYU as the 40th best team in the country after adjusting for injury at evameah.com, which is gonna put them as basically a slight underdog or slight favorite depending on which of these matchups they get. But the other thing too is that BYU, unlike Texas Tech, which I've talked about before, Texas Tech has stayed pretty even keel after losing JT Toppin, BYU has not. And they are 363rd in the country in momentum right now. In other words, they've...

gotten a lot worse after Richie Saunders injury. So if you look at either one of these matchups, right now, if they were to play Texas, I would have Texas favored by a half a point. I like the Dailin Swain shout. He has been excellent this season and I don't think he's been covered quite enough. He's excellent as a scorer, rebounder and playmaker, which is pretty rare to have be good at all three of those. And NC State, another talented team. That game is literally a dead even prediction if you use the matchup preview at evanmia.com.

So either way, BYU is gonna be in a dogfight, and that's exactly what I want to see for a BYU game with AJ DeBansa. So I think that either one of those has a lot of intrigue for me. The other one that I'm looking at is Wisconsin versus High Point. I don't necessarily think that this is the most ripe ⁓ upset, but Wisconsin has been fairly inconsistent this season, and I think we've started to, you know, back in January or February, once they started putting up some of these big wins,

but then not always following that up with good performances against the rest of their schedule. It's always been this discussion of Wisconsin feels like an elite eight team or an out in the first round. High points a team that's good enough to beat them. High points defense though, if we're talking about the high powered Wisconsin offense, that's a major mismatch. High points defense I have ranked as 132nd best in the country against the top 10 offense in Wisconsin. And specifically when you look at the three ball, Wisconsin has 14 games this season.

when they have hit 15 or more threes, which in and of itself is insane. High Point doesn't have a single game this season where they've allowed 15 or more threes. Now, obviously a lot of that is because of the schedule, but there's gonna be a clash here. so something's gotta give. I think it's likely that Wisconsin is able to hit threes against them, but it's not always a given. So I think that one's interesting as well. Any thoughts on that matchup?

Jim Root (1:16:58)
Yeah, it's tricky for Wisconsin because this is the look past game. It's NCAA tournament not going to do that. But I mentioned having a bunch of Badger fan friends and they're like, we just got to get past round one and start to get that mentality of being the hunter because they've been so good with that all season. At High Point, you mentioned schedule. They haven't played a top 100 team all season. How does that work? Last year, I think they played

won it was UAB and then they got to Purdue in the NCAA tournament and were competitive but not quite to the level that maybe thought you know some thought they could pull off the outright win there. It is a talented team and Rob Martin's awesome in the backward. I love Conrad Martinez off the bench as a kind of spark plug score playmaker. Aquino up front Scott NCAA tournament experience. ⁓ It's talented, it's athletic. Klayman's done a great job in his first year but ⁓

I think the pace that they play and the defense that you alluded to is probably going to make it tough for them to overcome, especially in a high sample possession game. That's not really what you're looking for for the underdog giant killer mode. I think we do get the Wisconsin Arkansas game and that's the one that I think everybody's going to have their eyes on in the second round.

Evan (1:18:12)
I will ask you about the Miami versus Missouri matchup in your alma mater. I think that's a really fun 7-10 just because I think both these teams have been kind of on the up recently. Obviously Miami, Florida has had one of the best ⁓ first year coaches this year in Jay Lucas, but Missouri in their own right has also been playing well. So what do you see in that matchup? Who are you picking there? And what's the maybe the most intriguing part of that one?

Jim Root (1:18:36)
Yeah, I think I'm going Miami and for the listeners, I have not gotten a Missouri game right all year long. So fear not. If you are a Missouri fan, you can just throw tomatoes at me and be content. This Mizzou team is much better on the glass than they have been in recent years. And that's not to say they're great on the defensive boards, but they've been abysmal in the past and you've got to be able to hold up against Renu, Uday, getting after it inside on the boards. That is one of the more physical front courts in the entire country.

And they've got big physical guards too. I think people are going to love the Trey Donaldson, T.O. Barrett hair matchup in the back court. That's going to be fun. But I just, I think I trust Lucas a little bit more at this point, even though it's only his first year. Gates has not had a great postseason run. He's got one NCAA tournament win and then he turned around and lost to Princeton. Got blown out by Princeton in the second round. And then last year, think Ben McCollum ran circles around him in the first round.

So with that physicality in the front court that Miami's got, I'm going to lean towards the Hurricanes there.

Evan (1:19:39)
Yeah. Okay. ⁓ In this region, maybe outside of Arizona, who is your favorite team that you really like that you think could do really well, especially kind of relative to their seed line?

Jim Root (1:19:50)
Yeah, I think it's Wisconsin and maybe that's a popular pick right now just because of what we've seen from them lately. But yeah, I think the ceiling is so high from them. You've got an unbelievable guard duo that I think they had a game where they combined for 69 points in the Big Ten tournament. And then the front court, as I mentioned, likely getting Winter back, a super valuable guy for how they play. And Rody can hit a couple of complimentary threes from the wing.

Evan (1:19:53)
Mm-hmm.

I like it.

Jim Root (1:20:17)
their other big men, Rapp and Bileauskas can also shoot some. This team's at Carrington too, I guess can get really, really hot off the bench. So they've got the one or two game upside and they've shown it throughout the season that if they're able to get past the hiccups in the first round, I think they've got a chance. And even if, you if they knock off Arizona, like in a team, it's not exact same as Michigan, but like just the overwhelming size and the fact that you've got to stay.

vigilant on the glass for all 40 minutes and in transition for all 40 minutes. ⁓ There's at least some similarities there and they've been able to play with Michigan twice, beat them once. And then if you see Gonzaga, that works for me. It's a similar matchup to Arizona and they've already won at Purdue in the last couple of weeks. So Wisconsin's definitely going to be a popular pick, but I can't deny that it's with some merit. So would be the Badgers for

Evan (1:21:13)
Yeah, I love the Wisconsin pick. feel like it's dangerous just in the sense that they could lose in the first round and then people are going to pick them to the lead eight, but I can't look past. I feel like, you know, I'm an analytics guy. Throw out the numbers, just vibes. Wisconsin has felt like an elite eight team for at least a month at this point. The way that they play the high level guard play between Blackwell and Boyd, the three point shooting, it's all there. And if there's any team that can rock the boat,

of the consistency of Arizona. It is a team like Wisconsin, absolutely, with the three ball that they have. So I think that's a great pick. My team is Purdue. I think that it's, Purdue has obviously had issues in the last two months, but the Big Ten tournament really, I felt like was a litmus test for what level is this team at? They win the entire thing. They're trending in the right direction. They're not playing in the haunted halls of Mackey Arena in this tournament where they have

really struggle this season. And here's the interesting thing stylistically. According to my site, they are the comfortably the best offense in the country. Let's forget about the fact that they have the 30th best defense, Comfortably the best offense in the country. And the last four national title champions have all had a top three offense going into the tournament. What makes that especially interesting is that all of the one seeds and the most likely teams to win it all are much better.

defensively than offensively as a grouping. And when you actually graph that on the sort of efficiency landscape, Purdue really sticks out as a sore thumb because of how much better their offense is than their defense. Maybe there's something to that of being a unique pick there. And in terms of a matchup against Arizona in the Elite Eight, if that's how it works out, my model gives them a 34 % chance to beat Arizona. Zona would be favored by four and half in that. Again, that's very doable for a Purdue team. I think they had worse odds.

to beat Michigan in the Big Ten title game. So I like Purdue, where are you at on that group?

Jim Root (1:23:13)
Yeah, I was impressed by them in the Big 10 tournament and I think their Achilles heel is always going to be like big athletic scoring guard scoring wings. So I don't, know, maybe AJ DeBonsa could go for 50 against this defense. have no idea how they would guard him, but Purdue would probably score a hundred in that game. So they'd be okay overall. Yeah. I just think the trend of them at the end of the season, like the veteran guard play clicking in that, in that dimension.

Kaufman Ren looks like the best version of himself again after kind of some downswings this year, maybe not sure of his role next to Clough. They played him at the five more, kind of trending Jacobson out of the rotation. And I think that's where Kaufman Ren really thrives offensively. So I like the adjustments that they've made. I also just wanted to add, we were talking about the popular Big Ten five seed that everybody wants to pick to the Elite Eight. I had flashbacks to Iowa a few years back.

Evan (1:24:05)
⁓ same, same,

yes!

Jim Root (1:24:07)
when

they lost to Richmond in the first round and everyone's like, ⁓ I lost the final four team already or an elite eight team already. And yeah, okay, yeah, I think I probably was too. So I feel your pain.

Evan (1:24:11)
Yep, that was me.

Yeah, okay, in terms of picking a team to come out of this region, are you going to Arizona or are you going somebody else? I feel like a lot of people have been on the bandwagon most of the season that Arizona looks like the best team in the country. And I think they have certainly been the most consistent team in the country. So they're maybe as foolproof as any team, but...

There are a lot of other talented teams in this region like we've talked about, Purdue, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, like all those teams could cause them, give them a good game. Are you going with Arizona or are you going with someone else for the winner of this region right now?

Jim Root (1:24:54)
Yeah, I'm going Arizona and I'm on board with the best team in the country. I power ranked the number one at the athletic for our forward looking rankings is most likely to win the tournament. Obviously Duke and Michigan have been bitten a little by the injury bug. And I think that influences my, my opinion there. And I am open to the idea of like, if they do get down in a game, how do they come back? Because they don't have the perimeter potency unless suddenly Burys and Del Orso are both having good games at the same time. I just don't know that they're ever going to be trailing.

that significantly. They're so dominant on the glass. They're pretty solid in terms of shot volume with the turnover battle to ⁓ more dominant on the boards. But and then how do you score inside against this team? How do you ⁓ measure up against the wing size? Karchenko at the three is a tank. I just think the consistency and the fact that they don't need threes. I flip it more into a positive where like they're not prone to a bad shooting night on any single night. And with the lack of standout defenses in this region,

I'm going to have Arizona into my final four.

Evan (1:25:55)
Yeah, Arizona, seventh in game to game consistency on my site, so they're very even-keeled. And in addition, my favorite stat with them all season is they have only allowed two kill shots, two 10-0 runs all season. The only one that was actually in a meaningful game was against Houston in the Big 12 title game, and they still withstood that. The other one was in a blowout game when they were already up 30 in non-conference play. So this team does not give up big runs, but they definitely have a lot of them on their own.

So I think it's very reasonable to pick Arizona. I am leaning towards not picking Arizona because I'm probably, I'm not putting my official bracket into Wednesday, but I'm probably picking Duke and Michigan to come out of the regions and I really don't want to pick more than two one seats. Even though Arizona, if you go to the tournament odds on my side, is a 53 % chance of making the final four. So more likely than not, but I think as of right now I'm probably riding with Purdue just because I think they have the,

The veteran leadership, the previous Final Four experience, senior-led, arguably best point guard in the country, great coach. I think they have a lot of ingredients there. They figured it out in this last week. So I really like Purdue. think that's kind of where I'm leaning right now, but I think Arizona is hard to look past there, so a lot of good options there. ⁓ So thanks, Jim. This has been awesome, and we will see if your prediction on Arizona comes true, but either way, this is gonna be a super fun region.

And you're gonna be in Vegas for the first round of this tournament, isn't that right?

Jim Root (1:27:27)
Yep, got the annual Vegas trip, 12th trip out there for the first weekend. That'll be back home in Chicago for the Midwest Regional. And then of course, joining you in Indianapolis for the Final Four. So as much basketball as I can possibly consume over the next three weeks.

Evan (1:27:36)
Yes.

Awesome, we're gonna have a ton of fun with it, so thank you.

Evan (1:27:44)
Okay, last graphic that I want to cover today, and it's a big one.

is looking at the opponent strength adjustment metric that I have at evanmia.com that measures how well teams play up or down to competition. Basically, the way this works is if you have a really positive rating in opponent strength adjustment, it means that you play up to elite competition. You play better than expected against the best teams on your schedule. It's teams that are

⁓ really prolific in the big moments against the best teams on their schedule, against elite teams, you can rely on them putting their best foot out there and competing at the highest level. But they may be more less, or they may be less convincing against the weaker teams on their schedule, maybe as comfortable favorites, they're not winning by as much as they should. On the flip side, you have teams that can often beat up on really inferior opponents, but when you actually put them up against a really good team,

They really struggle to meet the performance level that you might expect out of them. So when we look at the teams in this tournament field based on opponent strength adjustment, there are a couple things that stick out here. Number one, all of the one seeds going into this tournament are neutral or positive in opponent strength adjustment. What that means is Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Duke, all of these teams play really well against the best teams on their schedule and they are

pretty reliable in showing up in big ways in that. Arizona sticks out the most there, but Michigan, Florida also good there. Duke is pretty much even, which means they sustain the same performance level, whether they're playing a great team or a bad team. That's a good thing. And most of the tournament teams who have done well in recent years, who have won national titles, go into the tournament at least neutral, if not positive in this. So that's really good for those teams and makes me feel sure that they're gonna be ⁓ successful in the tournament.

Where it gets more interesting is looking at teams that are kind of more in the middle seat area that are really positive in the opponent strength adjustment. What that means is they play really well against great teams, but are more susceptible against bad teams. I would call these teams having more of a higher ceiling, lower floor teams in this group. Wisconsin, Michigan state, Nebraska, TCU, Texas tech. Those are the main teams that fall in this category. I think Wisconsin.

Texas Tech, Nebraska, Michigan State, like all those teams, it makes sense. They have been really good often against the best teams on their schedule. Wisconsin and Texas Tech have some of the best wins of any team in the country, but these teams are not ones or two seeds for a reason in that they have been maybe less convincing against some of the worst teams on their schedule, against some of the middling teams. And so for that reason,

They might be a little bit more suspect to a first round upset, a second round upset, but if they can get past those matchups, I have a lot of confidence in them to really give any better team than them a run for their money. If they're playing a one seed or a two seed, they have shown consistently this season that they can really, you know, throw a good punch and potentially win those games. So those are teams I would call high ceiling, low floor. On the opposite side, we have teams that are more high floor, low ceiling.

in that they have been really, really convincing in games that they are comfortable favorites in, but against the best teams on their schedule, not so much. There's five teams in this group, NC State, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, or sorry, Kentucky, and Alabama. NC State and Louisville in particular are really, really low in this, way lower than everyone else. And what that means is they are probably really good at handling their business against teams that they are favored against.

And certainly for Louisville, if we're looking at their first round matchup against South Florida, you know, maybe they're more prone to surviving in that round. But once they get to playing the best teams, the one seeds, the two seeds, the three seeds, these teams in this group have not consistently found good performance levels against the best teams on their schedule. And it makes me pretty skeptical of how they're going to do in some of those bigger games. So higher floor.

higher floor, lower ceiling for those teams. And the final group that I will concentrate on here is teams that I would say have Cinderella upside. These are some of the better ⁓ teams that won their conference tournaments or in traditional one-bid leagues that do play better in their best games. And there's four teams specifically that stick out to me here. That would be Hofstra, Troy, Miami, Ohio, and Kennesaw State. Hofstra and Miami, Ohio in particular will have pretty good shots at

you know, ⁓ getting to the second round and they do play their best basketball against the best teams on their schedule. So that makes me feel good about them. Troy actually has the best opponent strength adjustment of any team in this field. Now they will have a tough first round matchup against Nebraska, but hey, we mentioned it earlier, Nebraska is also in this high ceiling, low floor category. So maybe that bodes well for Troy in that.

Troy will play their best basketball against Nebraska. Maybe Nebraska is a little bit more shaky. So that's something to monitor there, especially with those Cinderella teams.

Evan (1:33:09)
Well, we got through everything. am wiped, but that was a ton of fun. I cannot wait for this tournament. And we will be back next Tuesday with a recap of everything that we see in this first weekend of the tournament. So please stick around for that. But thank you so much for being here in the most anticipated episode of the season. And it has just been so much fun to see and do this podcast every single week leading up to this tournament.

And now it's finally here. I'm gonna have so much fun. I know you guys are gonna have so much fun with it. As always, this is an ad-free show. If you found this today for the first time, please help support the show by giving us a five-star review on Apple or Spotify that drives more people to the show. If you're watching on YouTube, please subscribe to the channel, like the video, share with other people. It will really, really help a lot. But thank you guys again. This has been super fun.

I cannot wait for this tournament. I'm sure you guys are all in the same boat. Thank you so much for listening. We will be back next week to recap all of these games. It truly means a ton to me that you are here. I will see all of you guys next time.