The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:00)
cannot impressed Texas Tech have been overcoming adversity all year long.

I expected a massive, massive dip in this team once Toppin got injured.

they have looked like they haven't lost a step.

Tate (00:12)
I would hate to be the one seed that sees Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 because that's going to be a really, really tough game. So if you're talking about teams that are one seeds that might get knocked off, Texas Tech is the type of team to do it.

Evan (00:23)
They've got the

Evan (00:00)
everybody, welcome to the Evan Mia College Basketball Show. I'm your host, Evan Miakawa, and guys, it is March. Greatest month of the year is here. I am beyond stoked. And with it being March, there is so much to talk about. From this past weekend, as we gear up for conference tournaments and March Madness, things we will cover on today's loaded show.

Big statement wins by some of the title favorites in Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Florida. Texas Tech overcomes adversity again to beat Iowa State on the show. Our biggest Cinderella of the year, Miami, Ohio is still undefeated. We are gonna talk about some potentially under-seated teams in the tournament who could be bracket value plays in this week's analytics corner. That's gonna be really fun and so much more to get to.

Super packed show today, Tate Frazier is on deck with me here in a second to talk about the weekend plus a fun game of fact or fiction. And later on in the show, Michael Tulip will be joining me to talk about some more games and pick who our favorite teams are to cheer for in March as we gear up for the tournament. If you're a listener of the show, please leave us a review on Apple or Spotify, or if you watch on YouTube, hit the subscribe button. It really helps grow the show. Before we get going here,

I want to set the table for what we have planned on this show for the rest of March, the best month of the year in college basketball. So next week's Tuesday show will be released right as power conference tournaments are about to get underway. So we will have Seth Davis joining us to preview what will be an incredible champ week. So that's going to be great. In addition on next week's show to talk more about bracket implications heading into selection Sunday, Joe Lunardi.

The great Joe Lunardi Joey Brackets will be on the show next week as we get into all things bracketology. So I am very, very excited for those two high profile guests to be on the show next week. As for the bracket itself, we will have a full bracket breakdown show coming out the Tuesday morning after the tournament is selected. We'll be recording it on that Monday. Some cool guests joining me to break down each individual region of the bracket.

plus some other analytically driven insights and tips that I will have to help you win your bracket pool. So that's what you have to look forward to in the coming weeks. But there is a lot to unpack right now about this week's action.

And here with me to do all of that is the great Tate Frazier from the ringer Tate. It is March.

Evan (02:38)
Before we get into any of the games from this weekend or anything, how are you feeling right now? Are you ready to get the greatest month of the year going here?

Tate (02:45)
I'm fired up. It's the best of times. There's a lot of unserious basketball happening in the NBA because they're kind of, you know, trending towards, you know, the playoffs and you know, there's a lot of tanking going on and that's why college basketball takes center stage. It's the best of times, great storylines. We've had some incredible quotes this year and press conferences. I feel like every single weekend we get a different one. Kevin Willard delivered the, I'm bald because of Rick Patino this past weekend, which was nice to see.

Just incredible characters, incredible teams and the top four that we have right now, maybe even five if you want to throw in, you know, maybe a Yukon. think they're in the conversation as well. Florida now seems like a top team. So again, a lot of good storylines, a lot of good teams and a lot of good basketball ahead. I'm excited.

Evan (03:21)
Mm-hmm.

I think this season has been billed kind of throughout as being one of the best, most talented, most interesting seasons that we've had in college basketball in a while. And then we've seen how great this freshman class has been. And that has almost directly led to the NBA product being worse because they all want these guys, right? So I think this season, when we finished the college basketball season, I think we're gonna look back on this in terms of just national attention. I think this is gonna be as high as it's been in a long time. And speaking of some of these top teams,

Tate (03:36)
Mm-hmm.

Right?

Evan (03:56)
There are so many significant games from this weekend that we'll barely have time to touch on even a fraction of them. But I want to start by spending some time on several of the massive statement wins by teams who are among the favorites coming into the weekend to cut down the nets in April. I'm going to go ahead and list four of these here and we'll kind of take them all individually. But kind of overall, this is a big development this weekend of I think we're really seeing a separation of the teams who are really legit, really elite kind of separating themselves from the rest of the pack. So

Arizona had a huge home win against Kansas. They won 84 to 61 Duke in similar fashion beat Virginia 77 51 at home. Florida also at home against Arkansas 111 points on the Razorbacks and they won by over think 30 points and then Michigan on Friday night won at Illinois in a game that was supposed to be a lot more close than it was. All four of these teams made strong cases this weekend for their title credentials. But Tate for you, which team was the most impressive this weekend?

Tate (04:55)
I would say Florida. just, I understand there was a little bit of a ribbing going on between Todd golden and John Calipari talking about those storylines and characters. got that nice moment where John Calipari seemed to be shocked that Todd golden was willing to say something to him. And you know, then stood behind his assistant coach. got a technical foul. John Calipari think the official for the technical foul they're called on golden. But as far as the basketball on the court, that front court for Florida, we know how good they are.

Obviously one of the best in the country, if not the best front court in the country, Condon, Hauk, Chenyalu, all three of those guys have been incredible. I do like what I've seen from the back court as far as developing. It does feel like they have more of a flow, more of a feel with who they are. It is kind of similar to what we saw last year with Houston, right? Kind of a rough start out of the gate. Then they turned into a team that ends up going to the national championship game. Five and four seems very far away at this point. And when you watch them play,

and you watch Golden kind of coach this team, it just feels like, man, there's a chance we could get a repeat champion. So I feel like Florida sent the biggest message, especially for the hype going into the game, right? We were talking about ACUF, National Player of the Year, all that sort of stuff. It seemed like it was a ⁓ mission statement, right? Going into that game to make sure you don't forget about ACUF. Well, Florida sent a message and they said, don't forget about us. We can win the title again. So I would go with the Gators.

Evan (06:11)
I think that's the pick and you know, I think all of these other teams they won in some spots predicted to win. But this was a game like you had said had been really built of like these might be the best two teams in the SEC. This is really Arkansas spot to shine again. It's on the road against Florida, but Florida hasn't been invincible at home. But it wasn't just the fact that they won by over 30 points hanging 111 points on Arkansas. They scored Florida scored 53 points in the first half.

And then after that half, was like, my goodness, this offense is getting everything they want. They scored 58 in the second half. Like they ramped up the pressure even more.

Tate (06:44)
It wouldn't take out

the starters. just kept running up the score. Yeah.

Evan (06:49)
Yes, yes, and they they shot almost 60 % from the field in this game the three-point shooting was on fire Which has been a question mark for them for a lot of the season they out read about it Arkansas by 20 They had 17 assists like everything was working for them especially offensively and I like how you brought up the comparison to last year because Slightly different in the sense that Florida was I think undefeated going into January at this point or in January last year

So it wasn't like they had a rough start, but they weren't on the national radar even until that point because they weren't expected to be that good of a team. This year, they were expected to be good, but then they had a big blip, if you want to call it that, taking several tough losses. A lot of them against good teams, but it was like, maybe Florida's not the team we thought this year. And now you look and it's like they're arguably the hottest team in the country and they're probably not going to enter the tournament as the favorite to win the whole thing, maybe even the second best.

favorite, but they absolutely still are in that tier. That's the exact same spot we saw from them last year and they ended up taking the whole thing down. So I think they're kind of finding the same success they did last year and they already have the blueprint. They've already seen this work. It's already won them a title. So that's pretty scary.

Tate (08:04)
Yeah. And last year golden hadn't won a game yet in the tournament. So that was the big talking point, right? Can we trust a coach that has never won an NCAA tournament game to go win six games and win the title? That question was obviously answered. So I do feel like we feel a little bit better about golden in those spots. And this Florida team, Thomas Hauk to me is one of the best players in the country, if not the best player in the country. I really

And just so impressed with what he's been able to do. I almost feel like Condon gets forgotten a little bit because Chen Yalu has been so good for this team. And obviously the Florida fans have embraced him fully, but you can pick any one of those guys in the front court hand logged and coming off the bench as well as a nice piece. just, know, how do you really beat this team without a front court that can match up? And there aren't many teams in the country that have a front court that can match up. mean, Duke, Arizona, Michigan, right? Those are kind of the three you point to.

And outside of that, there's not enough bodies to really go up against them. So I think that really helps Florida. And if the backcourt doesn't let them down, which seems to be the case, at least over the past two months, I think they got a real big shot.

Evan (09:02)
Yeah, mean, Chen Yalu has been, you know, had an argument for a national defensive player of the year all season. If, and, but Condon, like you mentioned, has been growing into his own. And if you look at defensive player ratings at evanmia.com in terms of who are the most valuable players in the SEC defensively, it's Chen Yalu and Condon number one and number two in the SEC in defensive value. They have both been that good. And obviously Thomas Hauck has been everything that Florida wanted him to be. So huge statement went for Florida. I think another one that really sticks out obviously is

Tate (09:06)
Mm-hmm.

Wow.

Evan (09:31)
Arizona's home blowout win against Kansas. This was a game in which Arizona was up and then Kansas kind of chewed into a lead. Darren Peterson started getting hot. Ultimately, Arizona wins this game by over 20 points. And I think this was really a Braden Burys game for me. He was the best player on the court for Arizona on Saturday. 20 points, 12 rebounds for a guard, freshman guard, 12 rebounds, five assists, zero turnovers. And if you look at, I mean, I think

Arizona's strength this year has been not relying on any one player. They have so many different capable guys. They can go seven, eight, nine deep, as good as anyone in the country in that regard. And, but for that reason, there's not a single player this year has really stuck out way more than everyone else, like a clear star player. But Braden Burys has moved ahead of Jaden Bradley at evanmia.com to be the most valuable player on the team. And I just think that shows the progress and development that he has made.

where beginning of the year it was Koa Peet stealing the headlines in that win against Florida in the first game of the season. It has been Braden Bury's consistently down the stretch who has kind of developed into one of their most reliable players, arguably the most valuable player on the team. So like, what were your takeaways from this game for Arizona and how were they able to withstand Kansas and ultimately get what wasn't really ended up being a close game at all?

Tate (10:49)
Yeah, you mentioned it. Bradley was the guy earlier in the season against the UCLA. I was at that game out here where he closes that game for them. did feel like at the end of the game, it's like, okay, Jayden Bradley, you go save us. But now when you have two options and Burys, like you said, seems like the primary option at this point, that's a very encouraging sign. The backcourts obviously matter in March. We know that you don't need all the numbers to tell you that. So I think those two guys are incredible. And in this game, when Kansas cut it to two,

Evan (10:51)
Mm-hmm.

Tate (11:14)
You know, I was sort of sitting on the edge of my seat saying, this is going to be fascinating to see how Arizona responds. They go on what was it a 19 to 0 run. was almost a double kill shot to use your terminology there. So a shout out to the Wildcats for getting that going. A nice response there. Koa Pete being back is encouraging. That was the big key and a big cog in the machine of Arizona basketball. I think we all have a little bit of trepidation with Arizona just because we've been burned.

Evan (11:23)
Yeah.

Tate (11:38)
so many times this century. know Sean Miller's not there anymore. I know we've seen this Arizona team prove things wrong, but again, we need to see Tommy Lloyd get over the hump, make it to a final four. I feel like this is a team that's right for that opportunity. And those two guards are the reason why. So Burys has been great. He definitely liked the matchup with Darren Peterson. I know they weren't going head to head, but too in this game, but I saw it at the McDonald's game last year. He takes it personally.

I really liked his Arizona team and this was a get back game so you kind of expected him to play at that level but a big win and a big confidence boost for them.

Evan (12:10)
Yeah, quickly on the Kansas side of things, Darren Peterson kinda almost willed Kansas back into this game. It wasn't his necessarily most efficient scoring night, but he scored 24 points, five rebounds, three assists. It was Florid Badunga who was really, I mean, I think he's arguably been their most reliable player this year. He was pretty much a non-factor in this game. Just two points and four rebounds. Yeah, yeah. I mean, when Darren Peterson didn't play in that game, he was the one who really took over, but today was kind of a no-show.

Tate (12:29)
Incredible in the first game dominated the first game. Yeah

Evan (12:39)
⁓ So it'll be interesting to see what we'll touch on Kansas in a few minutes about talking about their their March hopes but another result very similar to this one again a top team hosting another Final Four contender at home was Duke against Virginia and I think this was especially intriguing because Duke has not faced many ACC tests this season other than their their road loss against UNC. It's not really been that interesting watching them in count conference play

Having Virginia, albeit at home, was really interesting because Virginia has overachieved all season in terms of what people thought were realistic expectations for this team in a first year with a new coach, and they're very good team. And ultimately, this game wasn't even close. Cameron Boozer did his normal thing. I think you could say he had a bad game for his standards, which was only 18 points, nine rebounds, four assists, like whatever. That's a standard, like typical Cameron Boozer game. But the Duke guards really set the

Tate (13:29)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (13:39)
for this game for me and that has been something we saw kind of similarly against Michigan in their win was the backcourt is not the best backcourt in the country, it doesn't come close to it, but they have been kind of improving at the right time of year. Isaiah Evans had some big threes early to kind of give Duke a lead, he finished with 19 points. Darren Harris had two threes and that comes off a game against Notre Dame when he scored 16 points and they've been able to get a little bit more out of him. So that's very encouraging for Duke and you know.

when you ultimately have a team that's solid across the board, and then you have a player as dominant as Cameron Boozer, I think it's kind of easy to just overlook how significant of a factor that is that Duke has the best player in college basketball. At this point in time, he's actually the highest rated player in all of college basketball in my entire database going back to 2009. He just passed Zach Eadie's rating that he had in his 2024 season. So this Duke team looks pretty impenetrable right now.

Tate (14:36)
Absolutely. And Shire won ACC coach of the year on Saturday or on a yeah, on Saturday after what I thought, you know, Odum wanted against, know, Jay Lucas the weekend before. So, you know, you got to give kudos to Shire. This team is obviously so well constructed. And I think we talk about cam Boozer and rightfully so he's been incredible, but defensively this Duke team is just so good.

and you really just cannot find shots. And I thought Michigan was going to be a team that was going to make them rotate a little bit, maybe make them break down on defense. But even Michigan wasn't able to get into sets to really make this defense look like they were penetrable because again, Duke size, Duke's length has been really unstoppable. And on the ball, I mean, the ball pressure that they put on the physicality you saw after the game, know, Testa Ritter was talking about this. He was like, I don't think we were ready.

for the physicality of this Duke defense. we kind of, you know, we're a little shell shocked by it. And I think there's going to be a lot of teams that face this Duke defense where they get caught up in the offensive side of the ball, kind of ball watching a little bit with cam boosers doing on offense. It's so easy, so steady, so kind of, ⁓ you know, innate for him to score the basketball, but defensively they're so solid, they're hard to break down. And I feel like this is a team where John Shire can go to Indy where he won in 2010 and won a national championship. And I wouldn't be shocked by that at all.

I think they're the best team in the country. I've been right there and saying that for a couple of weeks. I was worried about the Michigan game, like I said, but they proved me wrong ⁓ yet again. And the more that I kind of watch this team, it is that they keep adding depth pieces. Hamenia was great against Michigan who, you know, kind of has grown into a player as sort of a glue guy, X factor, whatever you want to call them.

Evan (15:51)
Mmm.

Tate (16:13)
And at the start of the ACC, they did look great. Like they kind of got off to a little bit of a rough start. Some teams that are in the bottom of the ACC gave them a little bit of run for their money. And then they just clicked into a different gear. And I think that's encouraging. And when you look at kind of the baseline out of bounds, sideline out of bounds, after timeout plays that Shire's running, it's all very smooth. It's all very, it's, yeah, it's diabolical at this point. So you have to give them credit for what they've been able to do. And I know people talk about the end of the game situations. They talk about blowing the lead against Texas Tech in

Evan (16:32)
It's been ridiculous.

Tate (16:42)
North Carolina. I do feel like that's a little bit overblown because in some of those games earlier in the year, Caleb Foster was great late in game. So I feel like they've had some experience. They've learned some lessons and I think that'll only help them in March.

Evan (16:55)
The only reason that whole blowing leads is a storyline, I talked about this a couple weeks ago, was because they lose so infrequently. So if you're just not losing, if you happen to be losing your games because you're blowing leads, that's a much better problem to have than if you're just losing more games generally speaking. So I don't think that's a concern. I'm gonna touch more on the Michigan-Illinois game later on in the show with Michael Tulip, but I do wanna get your thoughts on Michigan real quick because if Duke is the best team in the country, Michigan is right there with them.

Tate (17:01)
Yeah, right.

Mm-hmm.

Evan (17:23)
and they obviously lost to Duke on a neutral court, but they go on the road against Illinois in a really hostile environment. They clinch outright the Big Ten title, and it was a front court domination in this game. And we're talking about front courts like Florida. Michigan has ingredients on that team that no one else has. So what are your thoughts on Michigan and what they showed this weekend and ultimately their title credentials?

Tate (17:46)
Yeah, defensively again, I thought Linda board guarding Wogler was one of those stark things that you watch in this game. And you're just like, man, he's huge. And the fact that he's able to move and go up against a guard like Wogler and basically make him look completely out of sorts. It just felt like Illinois couldn't even make a pass in this game without some sort of opposition from the Michigan defense and the size. You know, we obviously know about Morris Johnson and his history with Illinois had an incredible game here.

had a little bit of a, you know, back and forth with Jake Davis at one point after a big fast break dunk there. I just thought this was a little bit personal for Morris Johnson and the rest of his Michigan teammates. They fought for him. I liked the way that they play together. I liked their continuity as a group. seems like they really like each other. Dusty May, an electric coach, one of the best coaches in the country. We both know that. So again, the size of Michigan, they don't have to deal with too much ⁓ when they, when it comes to other teams being able to match up with them.

Illinois, I thought maybe they could because that's the tallest team in the country, but they look small against Michigan, which is saying something. And I think that was my big takeaway. I was like, man, this Michigan team can really turn it up. And when you have Linda board, you can throw on guards and be able to handle his business. That is a nice thing to have in your arsenal. So my big takeaway was Michigan's defense in that game.

Evan (18:47)
Ha

Yeah, they were incredible. And I'll save some of my thoughts for this game later on the show. But I think the most interesting, surprising result of the weekend was another team who had a home spot against a good team that you would have hoped would also kind of cement their title credentials. That was Iowa State hosting Texas Tech, a not full strength Texas Tech team who has lost their best player, arguably their best player in JT Toppin for the year. I think Iowa State was favored by nine or 10 points in this game. It was Texas Tech.

who won by a lot in this game, 82 to 73. I cannot be more impressed with Texas Tech because they have been overcoming adversity all year long. When you look at the way that this roster is constructed, I've talked about this multiple times on the show, the depth on this team just does not match up with some of these other title favorites like we've been talking about. They have two amazing players in Christian Anderson and JT Toppin. You take one of those off the board,

And yet they have been able to overcome so many tough spots in terms of players being available, in terms of tough environments. They have some of the best wins of any team in the country. And to go on the road against Iowa State, they were up, they set the tone early. They were up by 16 points at halftime and Iowa State still makes a kind of run. But ultimately with Christian Anderson in foul trouble with four fouls, and he didn't even play that well. He didn't even play that well in this game. He had six turnovers. They're able to get

production from so many other guys in their team who have only had really spot minutes and rolls up to this point in the season. Luke Bambouye scored 13 points with just one missed shot. Tywee Bryan, who's been kind of absent for most of the year, had two big threes and they just bossed Iowa State around. And I am on record by saying that I expected a massive, massive dip in this team once Toppin got injured. I talked about it, injury adjusted ratings at evanmia.com.

They dropped from being a top 15 to about 40th in terms of what they were expected to do post top and injury. And they have looked like they haven't lost a step. They might even be better without him. I don't necessarily think that will continue quite in that way, but they have been unbelievable overcoming all of these set of circumstances. And to me, that speaks so much to Grant McCaslin and the buy-in that he has from his players, the belief, you know, all of the, the game strategy stuff, all of it, it's working to a T. How, how much have you been impressed by this team?

Tate (21:27)
Yeah, I think the story is Grant McCaslin. He's one of the best coaches in the country. ⁓ you know, we, have a lot of good coaches in college basketball. had this weird period, right? When we were losing all these legends, everyone's like, well, you know, what does the next crop look like? And fortunately for us, there's been so many good coaches that have stepped up to the plate and been incredible. McCaslin, one of the best coaches doing USA basketball. So obviously he's got a lot of experience.

With some great players. thought at well was so good in this game. I mean, I know he hit 6-3 so anytime you're making shots you look great, but I love them at UNCG. They've been able to find some of these, you know, hidden gems in the portal plug and play type guys that have been able to step into a role when you can win games on the road at a place like Hilton without your best player having his best game. I just think that says a lot about this group. They're very tough.

They have a lot of tenacity and you know, I just keep coming back to the fact that they're going to be a tough out for anybody. Like I would hate to be the one seed that sees Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 because that's going to be a really, really tough game. So if you're talking about teams that are one seeds that might get knocked off, Texas Tech is the type of team to do it.

Evan (22:30)
They've got the ingredients.

Yeah. And I think right now, you know, I expected them to, they were a four seed last Saturday, to the top 16 reveal. Every expectation was that they might drop to a five or six by tournament time without top in. They're still firmly holding strong there. Could make an argument they've, you know, increased their position since that came out. And yeah, if you're previewing the bracket as a four seed in the sweet 16 against a one seed, they've been in this spot.

before they've literally beaten a team like Duke when they were down by almost 20 points with a bunch of players out were in foul trouble. They've literally beaten Arizona on the road. I was like, they've done this multiple times. You don't even have to like work that hard to find it. So I'm fascinated by this team. And when they can do what they did to Iowa State on the road, mean, Texas Tech shot 58 % from the field, Iowa State just 39%. They had more rebounds than Iowa State. They had more assists than Iowa State.

And again, tough environment against a quote unquote better team on the road. This was a perfect game in terms of their hopes for March. So I could not be more excited for this group and what they're gonna do going forward.

Tate (23:40)
Absolutely, and I do feel like you know McCaslin it does come down to coaching sometimes in the tournament And I do feel like you feel really good if you're a Red Raider fan when you look at your sideline And you're saying okay, Grant McCaslin's probably got this figured out so again Just a really tough group and you mentioned it some of the best wins in the country if not the best ones in the country when you put it all together so that all adds up as far as confidence when it comes to March

Evan (24:02)
All right, I wanna play a game of Factor Fiction with you as we sort of set up what we're gonna see going forward in March. This is the crunch time, folks. This is when the teams really separate themselves, the wheat from the chaff, all that stuff. So I wanna play a game of Factor Fiction. I'm gonna try and focus on several different conferences here. What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna give a statement and we're each gonna reply with either fact or fiction of whether we think this is true or not and kind of why as we look forward to March.

The first thing I want to talk about is we've spent so much time talking about these top teams is after Friday night's Michigan win over Illinois and Duke's win early on Saturday, I made a tweet talking about how I think there is a separation between Duke and Michigan and the rest of the field. And that includes Arizona. That includes Florida. Analytically, that's kind of what the numbers show right now of those teams will be favored by three to four points against Arizona or anyone else.

But obviously all those teams made big statements on Saturday saying like, we can win a title. So the statement is Michigan and Duke are a tier above everyone else. Do you believe that that is fact or fiction? Okay.

Tate (25:11)
to say fact, even though I really

want to argue for Arizona, I'll go fact here because just seeing those teams, does feel like if, you know, not that we do series in college basketball, thank God, hopefully we don't get to that point at some point in the future. I just think that, you know, if it was Michigan Duke and you really came up to me were like, you have to pick, you know, any team to beat these two, I'd feel comfortable taking Duke and Michigan just for the matchup purposes.

And I think when you have, you know, to the two guys who are national player, the player of the year candidates, obviously Boozer is going to win. But Linda Borg is fairly in that conversation, firmly in that conversation with those two guys and the coaches too, with Dusty May and John Shire, not to knock, you know, Tommy Lloyd or Todd Golden. I just think the talent disparity and the, and the group kind of connectiveness is at a different level. And obviously Arizona has had to deal with some injuries, some plug and play stuff, but, you know, LJ going down as tough for Michigan. That's a little bit of a concern for me.

But again, I still think those two teams stand out. And like you said, it looks like the numbers kind of bear that out.

Evan (26:09)
Yeah, I also think this is fact. And that is no slight against Arizona or Florida or some of these other teams because I think in another, yeah, UConn's in the, yeah, yeah, I mean UConn is in the conversation as well. They're likely to get a 1C2. So, you know, I think they, I think all those teams can absolutely win a title. It's not, it would not be that surprising at all. That's kind of how I felt about Florida going into last year's tournament of they weren't Duke level, but they were still good enough to win even though I felt like Duke.

Tate (26:15)
Say Yukon for God's sake, so we don't want them to come at us either, yeah.

Mhm.

Evan (26:37)
going into the tournament was a level above everyone else. That's just where I'm at with Michigan and Duke. I think they're really, really good. And as of right now, I do think they have a little bit more of a likely chance of winning a title than the rest of those teams. But I do think there is a kind of top four to five, like we talked about, and these teams are really separating themselves. Okay, since you are the North Carolina guy, I want to go ahead and get your diagnosis on UNC. So the statement here is, Caleb Wilson will be back fully healthy for the tournament and UNC will be

good with a full roster. Do you think that's fact or fiction?

Tate (27:10)
fact, Caleb Wilson will be back. And I do feel like that front court with Caleb and Henry Basar is a tough matchup for a lot of teams. Now, you you're talking about those top teams, Duke, Michigan, Arizona, that might be more of a situation where they would have the advantage there, but against most teams, North Carolina is going to have the advantage and Caleb Wilson. hope he's in Cameron indoor. I

and suspect that he will play in that game. We'll see. don't know if he'll play against Clemson tomorrow night, but I think he will be back. They had the brace off for a couple of days. He had it back on during the game on the bench, but he's been locked in. He's been celebrating and he's the type of kid that really wants to play, have talked to some of his inner circle. They expect him to come back and play. ⁓ His agency seems to be happy and content with him wanting to come back and play. It's not one of those things where they're steering him the other direction to preserve his draft status in their mind. If he comes back and plays great, he can actually improve.

his draft status. again, I don't really care about the draft right now. It's March madness, but these are the things and the conversations that happen. And this North Carolina team have actually been able to add a depth piece there in the front court, which is what they were missing with Zayden high being able to play some quality minutes. So they get something nice there. Seth Trimble has been playing some really good basketball, the Dixon of it all. He's been a little bit up and down as you suspect with the freshmen, but kind Evans has been a nice piece. Jonathan Powell just had a really nice game on Saturday, which is another piece.

on the wing and the guard spot that can help this team. So North Carolina, feel like they've been able to add something nice without Caleb Wilson, which is some depth and that's something they're going to need in the tournament.

Evan (28:38)
I trust your intel on Caleb Wilson being back and he just seems like he is geared to be someone who is, he's not missing this tournament. He's gonna be fully there. I do have my concerns though about North Carolina, even as a fully healthy team. I have them ranked outside the top 25 teams right now in terms of predicting how good they're gonna be going forward. I think this team, they're hoping to make a sweet 16. I think they can absolutely get there, but I don't know if it's gonna be as easy for them as.

people might like. So I'm gonna kinda err on the fiction side of that, even though I think Wilson will be fully healthy, and I think he will be a big, big force for UNC. Staying in the ACC, as we kind of look at these teams in the ACC, Duke is the only Final Four threat in the ACC fact or fiction. Right now, the other teams that would be kind of in that conversation would be Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, are probably those four. So is Duke the only Final Four threat in the ACC fact or fiction?

Tate (29:35)
going to say fact. I would like to say fiction. thought Virginia was going to show me a little bit more on Saturday. This is a team that just seemed a little bit outclassed against Duke. Not to say they're going to face Duke in every round of the NCAA tournament, but it does feel like they have a little bit lower of a ceiling than I thought. Louisville, I have no belief in Louisville. I understand that they have some talent on that team, but I think they're 0 and 8 against Quad 1A team so far this season. It does feel like when they play good teams,

the shooting goes the opposite direction. I can't really buy into that. North Carolina, a lot of things would need to break their way just based on the seating for them to be able to make a run to the final four. Maybe Caleb Wilson has an incredible tournament and is able to do something magical and make it happen. But to be fair and to be fair to the game, I'll say Duke is the one I would see making the final four.

Evan (30:21)
Yeah, I think I was hoping for more for Virginia as well. If they had played Duke close in that game, maybe I would feel differently, but I also agree. I don't, I don't really think I could reasonably pick another one of these teams right now as things stand to make a final four. Okay. Over to the big 12, we alluded to this earlier. Kansas probably going to be the biggest storyline going into this tournament. The whole Darren Peterson, will he, won't he, how does the team play with him? Do they have it figured out? So my statement for Kansas is Kansas will have it figured out.

for the tournament, fact or fiction.

Tate (30:53)
fact, I think they're going to make a run. And I do feel like they're almost better when Peterson's the second or third option. And I do feel like against Arizona, just out of necessity, he almost kind of became, you know, too, too much of a guy that needs to, to, to initiate the offense. But when they're playing their best basketball council, Trey white, but Dunga

Taylor, all those guys are involved heavily and sometimes they get to ⁓ a position where they're all kind of ball watching Darren Peterson. When he's playing within the flow, kind of off the ball, catch and shoot, he can be really dangerous for this team. And it also makes defenses have to tailor what they're doing to a different level because they have to worry about Peterson. Like, yeah. When they swing it to Peterson, he can do amazing things. But when he's initiating the offense, I don't really like this Kansas team as much.

I think Bill Self has learned that and I think once they get in the tournament they're going to unleash that best five version of Kansas. So I will watch out for the Jayhawks.

Evan (31:47)
I also agree, I think this is a fact. Kansas has been through so much turbulence this season. And after all of that, all of the Darren Peterson stuff, all of the lineup changes and everything, this team is still 13th at EvanMia.com and that is better than where I had them in the pre-season, assuming everything was gonna be swimmingly fine and everyone was healthy and Darren Peterson was a full go. They're looking right now at a three to four seed range and you look at,

what they were able to do against Arizona, one of the best teams in the country, a team that could end up cutting the nets down in April. They beat them at home without Darren Peterson. That's the level of this team. And with Peterson, like you said, teams have to play this team differently because even if Peterson isn't scoring 30, he's still always the biggest threat on the court. So in that sense, I think Kansas will be a problematic. And I think as a three seed, as a four seed, I think they have the ingredients.

Tate (32:37)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (32:46)
Absolutely to get it done and there has been a you know, so much controversy around this team this year But this team is still really good really good even with all this stuff they've dealt with so I'm buying it I think they're gonna do well. Okay two more ⁓ SEC Will get multiple teams to the elite eight this year Obviously last year was the greatest season we've ever seen from a single conference SEC had two teams in the Final Four Florida won the whole thing This year has been a step back in terms of elite contenders outside of Florida

So will the SEC get multiple teams to the Elite Eight? Is that a fact or fiction?

Tate (33:21)
I'm gonna go fact, I think that Alabama, I like how they're trending. I think Florida is gonna be there in the Elite Eight. So those would be my two teams. Arkansas seemed to be the pick over the past, they kind of the flavor of the day for a little while. But Arkansas against top teams, if you look at their record, it's like one in seven. So I don't really buy them as a team that can make a run to the Elite Eight. But I do like Alabama, I like Coach Oates, and they've had their own version of controversy. And I think anytime you get teams that kind of chips on their shoulder with something to prove.

That makes them have a little bit of a superpower. And I think that Kansas will have that a little bit with Peterson having that mindset. I think Alabama has that as well. I think Phylon, we just saw what he can do when he gets engaged and can go on a ridiculous scoring run. I would call him a perfect Kimba candidate. So I'd go Alabama, Florida. So that sounds like two elite A teams to

Evan (34:08)
Yeah, I also agree with this. think Bama is a great choice. I think Florida is pretty likely to get there. But even if it's not Bama, there are a lot of other teams that are good enough to get there if things break right for them. Tennessee is there, Vanderbilt, Arkansas. I think Kentucky or Texas, if things break right, could get there. Again, I'm not picking, likely to pick any of these teams to the Elite Eight, but that is Florida, Bama, Tennessee, Vandy, Arkansas. That's seven teams that I just listed that I think all could be in the Elite Eight. So I do think this conference will get.

Tate (34:18)
Mm-hmm. Yep, Tennessee's good one.

Evan (34:37)
You know, two teams, it's to the elite. think that's more likely than not. Last one. We've talked about a lot of these top teams. We've not touched on Yukon much. Yukon is likely to get a one seat on selection Sunday and they are a really, really good team this year. Dan Hurley, one of the greatest coaches in the sport has won multiple titles. This team cannot be overlooked. So right now, when you look at title contenders, title favorites is Yukon in the five most likely teams to cut down the nets.

in April, is that a factual statement or a fictional statement?

Tate (35:10)
In I really liked this Yukon team. think Terris Reed being able to play at the level that we've seen when he plays at his heights is a difference maker for this group. A riba behind them. That is sort of the one, two punch when they have two bigs that can play, you know, at that type of level and support each other. feel like that's the best version of this team. Braylon Mullins has been a nice piece that has come in and sort of

figured out his role at this point too. yeah, I like this Yukon team and I think the sets offensively that they run is at a next level and you have to trust Dan Hurley at this point. He's not gonna go without a fight in any of these matchups. And I feel like, you know, Dan Hurley is slicking his chops at people who are underrating them. And that's, like I said, a good spot for them to be in.

Evan (35:51)
Yeah, I think that is a great spot for them to be in and they almost beat this Florida team last year in the second round that ended up winning the whole thing as a big underdog in that game in a season where they were very inconsistent. You know, I mentioned this earlier. I think the top four is really solid. Michigan Duke, Arizona, Florida. And then I think you've got a team, a group of teams like Houston, Yukon, Illinois, who are kind of in that like, okay, who's your next favorite from that group? I think of all those teams. If you're just thinking about March DNA, it's Yukon.

Tate (35:56)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (36:19)
for me and you know, Houston, think they were in the national title this year and I do have them rated slightly ahead of UConn on my site. But when you just think about what this group is capable of, the coaches, the acumen, the mentality, the way they play and the fact that they just always do well in March, you can't look past UConn there. So I also agree with that. There's a lot more to come this month guys. The basketball is gonna be amazing. This was just the start.

Tate (36:19)
Mm-hmm.

Evan (36:46)
So thank you, Tate, for taking the time to join me on the show today. We are in the best month of the year. It's gonna be fun.

Tate (36:49)
Of

Evan (36:52)
Thank you to Tate for joining me on the show today. If you guys are unfamiliar with Tate Frazier, he has been ⁓ incredible in college basketball coverage over the last decade plus. And you can find most of his stuff over at the Ringer, the Ringer Tailgate Show, Ringer gambling show he's heavily involved with. He also is joining Iman Brennan this year on the weekly basket under review show, which I've mentioned previously. And Iman has been on a guest on this podcast as well.

So be sure to go check out all of Tate's stuff. He's phenomenal, so his work is worth following.

Evan (37:23)
and I talked a good amount about Arizona and Texas Tech, but I do want to just briefly touch on those teams again, because as of right now, those are the two fan bases that I am in the hottest water in, if you want to call it that. I'm sure most listeners to the show who are fans of those schools are not this way, but this time of year, people come out of the word work to follow College Basketball, and I love it, but it also means that especially places like Twitter,

people can just fire shots. And ultimately what I'm referencing here is ⁓ I had a tweet earlier on Saturday, as I mentioned, that talked about how Michigan and Duke are in their own tier and Arizona fans in particular felt very slighted by that. And if I were an Arizona fan, I would also probably feel slighted by that because there is nothing that Arizona has done this season to do anything but showcase their title credentials and that they are arguably

One of the best, if not the best team in this season, they have two losses like a lot of these other teams that we've talked about and the losses that they've taken a bit and gets good teams and they have just been so consistently steady and excellent this year. So I totally get Arizona fans and people who cover this team, even just nationally wanting to put Arizona in that tier with Michigan and Duke. And I have good friends of mine in national media who would maybe even take Arizona to be, ⁓ to beat Michigan or Duke if they were to meet in a final four.

So I think that is all absolutely fair. Arizona has been so impressive this season, their consistency, they have a incredible backcourt, they seem to have a really good championship DNA this year, and I don't give any credence at all to the Tommy Lloyd hasn't done it in March stuff, I just don't. I think they're gonna be able to get over that hump this year, and I think they're very likely to get to a Final Four if not more. But with that being said, I also think Duke and Michigan just pose a different threat than...

most other teams this year. And for that reason, and especially when I look at the analytics and you guys know, I look at that a lot and I trust that a lot. And it does have those teams just a little bit ahead. But I do think the more important picture right now is that Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida have kind of all separated themselves from the rest and kind of feels a little bit similar to last year, even though Florida won't be a one seed this year, there were kind of a pack of four teams ish that really separated themselves. So I love Arizona and I want them to do well. I seriously do. And the other team is Texas Tech.

And, you know, Texas Tech fans came at me for tweeting about and talking about the injury impact that JT Toppin was going to have. And again, you guys know how this works. At EvanMia.com, I adjust for injuries, especially significant ones like JT Toppin being out for the year, because I'm forming game predictions for all these games for Texas Tech. And I'm not going to just pretend like JT Toppin

being out is going to not make any impact on the team whatsoever. So when Toppin went out, because of how good of a player is he is and how much worse the depth on this team is and who would be picking up the slack, Texas Tech moved from a top 15 to around 40th in the country in terms of their predictive team rating. They are all the way back up to borderline top 20. I think they're 21st when I checked yesterday. ⁓ So they have quickly kind of erased that drop, if you will, and they've seen me trending in a ⁓

positive direction. So from that standpoint, I was wrong. I was wrong about ⁓ the drop that this team was going to have without JT Toppin. Do I expect that to continue? It's not likely ⁓ in the sense that this team is probably a top 25 team going forward. That's where I have them ranked now. Do I think they're a top 10 team going forward? I just think it's gonna be really hard to overcome that injury, but.

Grant McCaslin has this group believing that they can do anything. He has this group believing that they can overcome any adversity. It seems like no matter what bodies they put on the court, they're able to get it done. I am so impressed. I'm so impressed with this team and I was wrong and I'm happy to admit it. And I want Texas Tech to continue to blow my socks off. I really do. They're really, really fun. And as we will touch on later in the show, they're one of my favorite teams to be watching going forward. Okay, with that being said.

We are going to move now into analytics corner before we get into my ⁓ time with Michael Atul up here on deck in a little bit. The reason why I want to do this now is because in analytics corner, it's the section of the show where I talk about things that are often more analytically driven insight wise from evanmia.com.

And this last week I put out one of my favorite pieces of analysis. I think it is the most helpful thing that I do that helps people fill out their brackets and it is

my under seeded analysis. And basically what it looks at is, right now we can look at according to current bracketology, but certainly when the actual bracket comes out, we can look at comparing every single team's seed to their predictive team rating at evanmia.com and identify teams that are either under seeded, as in they are much better than their seed or over seeded, which is the opposite of they're not as strong as you would typically expect for that seed.

You can actually go and check out the full history of how this analysis has worked for previous brackets at Evanmia.com, the blog, blog.Evanmia.com. I have an article that goes over, it puts this graph forward for all of the last 10 plus years and labels every single team that would have been going into that tournament labeled as under seeded. And it basically shows that most years these teams that are under seeded often perform way better than other teams on their seed line in specifically.

they advance, they win about 69 % more games than other teams on the same seed if they're labeled as under seeded. So right now, if we did this currently, I put a graphic up on Thursday, I'm updating it for today's show because a few of these teams have changed. Right now, according to current bracketology, at bracket matrix, this was updated as of Sunday morning, so again, this will continue to change. If we were to seed teams based on that and then look at their actual team strength at evanmia.com,

we can identify the current list of teams that would be under seeded right now. And a lot of these teams will end up being the same as what we will see after the official bracket comes out on selection Sunday. Some of these teams will change, but some of them will stay the same. And so it's good to kind of keep an eye out for these teams now. So here's the graphic. If you're watching on YouTube, you can see this showing every single team compared to their seed. And I will specifically highlight teams that are considered under seeded as in they are certain threshold better.

than usual for their seed, this year.

That list of teams as of Monday when we're recording this is ⁓ starts with Michigan and Duke both as under seeded. Now this is technically not possible for a one seed to be under seeded. That's not really the point. The point is that they are so much better than what we typically expect for a one seed that there is a special level of confidence that goes into both Michigan and Duke and their ability to do well in the tournament.

and at least go to a final four, if not further and win a title. So those two teams are really, really strong. And right now I would strongly recommend if the bracket were today picking one of those two teams to win the title, that's just how good they are. But when we go down the list, it gets more interesting. Florida right now currently slots as a two seed. When I did this on Thursday, there were a three seed. This was even more obvious, but two seed still holds. They are significantly under seeded right now as a two seed. In other words, if they are any seed other than a one,

They are way stronger than what's typical for their seed. I think this will stay the same because unless they can get to the one seed line and replace Yukon, which they can do, but it's not a guarantee, they will be under seeded as a two seed. If they drop a game and they go down to a three seed, they will be under seeded. This team is going to be way stronger than their seed and will be a strong pick to outperform expectations. As we move our way down as of today, Gonzaga as a four seed would be under seeded. That's one to watch.

And then kind of in this middle seed area, if we're talking about teams that can make it Sweet 16, go to an Elite 8. Dark Horse Final Four contenders, Gonzaga as a four, Tennessee as a five also qualifies as today. And then St. John's and Louisville as six seeds. St. John's is the one that sticks out the most to me. They are by far the most under seeded of this group and have the highest likelihood of retaining that tag unless they can get up to the four line by selection Sunday.

which seems probably unlikely. they're a six right now, they would for sure be under seeded. The St. John's team has more roster talent and is better than what their resume shows on the course of the season. So they would be a really, really good bracket value play right now if they were seeded as a six. As we move kind of down towards the more double digit seed Cinderella types, talking about teams that can make it into the final spots as an at large, who would actually be good contenders to have an upset in the first round, Texas as a 10 seed.

is a lot stronger than usual for a 10 seed and would be under seeded there. So that's a good pick. Santa Clara out of the WCC, if they can manage to get an at large bid, they would be an under seeded team. So if they can, if they're in Dayton, for example, I would be eyeing them as one of these teams who can win that game and then potentially upset a six. So Santa Clara there. And then if we're talking about ⁓ teams who have won their conference tournament as a single bid league who

can be a potential Cinderella and win and upset in the first round. South Florida as a 12 is the one that really sticks out to me right now. I think they will be the strongest 12 of the ones that would currently be there. And I think there's a strong likelihood they will still be in this under-seated category on selection Sunday. So that is a team to watch out for. East Tennessee State as a 15 seed and Merrimack as a 16 seed are also on here, but they're very close to the threshold. I think Appalachian State was on the list as of last Thursday.

These will go back and forth, but if you're looking for, okay, it's unlikely that a one or two seed is losing this year, especially given the Gulf between those teams and the rest of the mid-majors and low-majors, but East Tennessee State, Mary Mack, they could be more in the conversation if you're trying to pick out who can do it. Those would be the teams that I would be seeing right now. So I think this is a really fun analysis. I will absolutely be updating this.

on the Monday following Selection Sunday and we'll be talking about it on our Bracket Analysis show that Tuesday. So I will have an exact updated list of these teams and you can use that as you will for your bracket analysis but this is a really, really big tool for me as I'm building out my bracket. So hopefully you guys find that very helpful.

Evan (47:58)
Well guys, there's a lot more to get to from the weekend as we get closer to the tournament and I am thrilled to have on Michael Tulip from Seal Field of 68 joining me to dig into some of these results. And actually Mike and I were just talking offline. I just moved to Indianapolis and we realized that we are like five to 10 minutes away from each other. We could have recorded this in person. Should have planned that better. But Mike, I want to spend some more time on ⁓ Michigan's massive road win over Illinois back on Friday night. This was a weekend.

We've been talking about this a weekend full of statement wins by title contenders. It started with Michigan probably in the hardest environment of all these teams playing against Illinois and You know a highly hyped game. I think Michigan was favored by two points going to this game It was supposed to be close to a pick them a big opportunity for Illinois to sort of show their title credentials this wasn't really a game that was likely gonna be for the big ten title, but

Illinois absolutely is a team in the Big Ten who has shown this season consistently to be among the elites in the sport. Ultimately, Michigan pretty much dominated this game. 84 to 70 was the final score. It was the front court for me that really stuck out. ⁓ That front court for Michigan had 54 combined points. This game further showed why Michigan is arguably the best team in the sport. What were your biggest takeaways from this win over Illinois?

Mike LaTulip (49:20)
You talked about the front court, just the 42 points in the pain for Michigan against an Illinois team that not when you count the UCLA game too, but by and large, the last few years under Brad Underwood, they've really done a good job of, protecting the pain. And that's why I thought, that's why I thought Illinois really faltered in this game, but you just see the balance from this Michigan team, the way that defensively ⁓ I talked about this. ⁓

throughout the season, but, Duke falls into this category as well, but what they do defensively, they're able to suppress what you're good at, take away what you're good at, take your rhythm away without leaving themselves vulnerable in other areas. And that's, that's a very unique thing to do. Cause even Houston, Houston will put the hard hedge, but there's always some sort of trade off.

You leave yourself susceptible in the glass. There's shots on the backside, the way Michigan switches and it all starts with the axle. mean, that's his ability as the connective tissue of that team, I think is, is what makes them so special. Like their net rating his, and his on-off is crazy. ⁓ say really same thing with Mara too, but he makes, he makes all of that go. And then you throw in the pieces like Marez who can just really physically dominate a game. You throw in the pieces like Cadeau. I think Cadeau has taken a massive step this year.

having more of a defined role. ⁓ we'll see how much the LJ case and injury hurts them in terms of their depth in March. Cause I thought he was the Denzel Aberdeen of, of that team this year. And, ⁓ but I got nothing but good things to say about Michigan. think they look fully looked the part of, of potentially, think that even despite the loss to Duke, I think they played particularly well against Duke. I Duke had a lot to do with that. I think they're, I think there's still the title favorite.

Evan (50:54)
Mmm.

I think you hit on a lot of key points here. It starts with Jaxl Lendeborg. When you combine, he is not going to be, have a chance at winning national player of the year. And even if Boozer wasn't in the equation, I still don't think that would be the case because the rest of Michigan is so good, he doesn't need to stand out numbers wise. But when you look at his impact on this team, when you combine the fact that he has been so absurdly efficient and contributing in all the different areas that he has,

I think according to boxbpr at evanmia.com, which measures your overall statistical production, he's third in the country. And then you put in the piece of the team impact stuff. You mentioned the on-off splits on my site after adjusting for opponent quality faced by players. Michigan is outscoring opponents by 24 more points per 100 possessions when the Axle's on the court versus off. So you take those two things together and that is why he is the second most valuable player in the country right now overall at my site.

So that's obviously number one. But number two, when I was watching this game, Adai Mara, his defensive disruption and just how it completely changes how teams play, it reminded me so much of Donovan Klingon and the way that he ⁓ was just put Yukon in another stratosphere. Even for his first year certainly at Yukon, but definitely the second year. I think there's a lot of comparisons there and you look at the analytics in terms of...

Mara's impact defensively, it's right up there with Klingon. Do you think that's a fair comparison for his impact and kind of how he has made Michigan into what it is?

Mike LaTulip (52:47)
Yes, because when you look at Tristan Newton, Steph Castle, and, ⁓ you know, cam Spencer, those guys could just cut it loose on ball and really get after the ball, really pressure you. thought that was an area that Illinois struggled in. And the game on Friday night was you want to get some of these clean looks off, whether on short rolls or on throwbacks on picking pops. And it's like, you got yaks all.

moving his arms around with ball pressure. And I also thought too, it's just Illinois got caught a few times where, all a lot of talk going into it was, Hey, Thomas lobby V6 can stretch you out. What does that do for Mara? But the problem is like, if, a ball screen is, is set and you turn that corner, you're so reluctant to get north south on Mara that you end up going more east west. And then you've basically broken off your attack so he can just return to Tommy.

And so that that's like, and then all the while you got Yaxle on ball and then the way they switch as well. think Yaxle does such a good job of just, I mean, he talks a lot and we've seen that just in clips elsewhere, but he talks a lot on the floor too. And I think that that allows them to not have that first layer of their defense crack. Cause if it does, you got the ultimate eraser on the backside. And I said this earlier in the season and it's real.

Because as a player, you definitely feel it where it's like, I almost liken it to when Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady, or some of these guys throw a pass and a defensive end is safety like right in the breadbasket, they drop the interception because part of it is you are not expecting Mahomes, Brady Rogers to throw that type of pass at you. So you're not ready. And the same, the same fear people have is like, I'm driving in

Evan (54:33)
Mmm.

I love this analogy.

Mike LaTulip (54:41)
to the paint and it's like, I got to rush this shot just because I know that Mara is somewhere around just because of all the talk about their interior defense and their two point defense, all that stuff. Like I think they have not only are they good defenders, they've entered this like psychological realm with their opponent that I think is completely real.

Evan (55:02)
Yeah, and if you want to quantify how much these guys are impacting things defensively, at evanmia.com, you sort by defensive BPR, which is my metric that measures overall defensive value. Yaxa Lendeborg, number one in the country. Adai Mara, number three in the country. Ruben Chin-Yulu from Florida is right there between them. And then, Maurez Johnson, the third member of this front court, 10th in the country. So, in terms of what they've been doing this year, a lot of it is together and what they're able to accomplish. Three of the top 10 in the country.

Mike LaTulip (55:26)
crazy.

Evan (55:32)
That's pretty awesome. ⁓ right now, this is actually not the case at like Kenpom, but Michigan has the number one offense in the country at my site, number two defense. I do want to talk about the LJ Kason of it all because if any other team lost a player of LJ Kason's quality, this would be a massive, massive story. As it is, it's still a notable story for Michigan, but Michigan has shown that they have so many reliable dudes.

nine players, they were playing a lot. Now it kind of goes down to eight. But do you, how much do you think this injury is going to have a real tangible impact on Michigan's chances at winning a title? Because for me, I don't think this big picture moves things hardly at all. And it hardly adjusted Michigan's rating on my site after adjusting for the injury. Again, notable omission, yes. And Kason was awesome. And he would be ranked like better. If he was on Maryland's roster, he would be the best rated player on that team. So like,

This is not a slight against him at all. He's a great player, but I'm not as concerned. Do you feel like that's gonna significantly change the calculus for this team?

Mike LaTulip (56:39)
Not, not necessarily. It's not like they're not a title contender anymore because LJ case is not now if the axle went down, if, if Mara went down, like that's, that's a totally different story. I just think, I just think what case in does is just, he doesn't allow you to ever take an exhale or take a breath. ⁓ and it allows this Michigan attack, especially really on both ends. Cause he's such, he's so good with his ball pressure. ⁓ it allows, it allows it to just continue to be seamless no matter who they bring to the bench. Coteau gets two files like

Evan (56:45)
short.

Mike LaTulip (57:08)
So now it's just, you're going to have to rely more over the course of 40 minutes on Cadeau. You're going to have to rely a little bit more over the course of 40 minutes on Trey McKinney, who's shown throughout this season that he's willing to step up. He knocked down a few big shots against Illinois that pretty much put the game away to put him up 15 to put him up 19. And then, um, and then, you know, cheddar cheddar is always going to get minutes. Uh, he's too important of a piece and too, uh, you know, too much of a glue guy I'd say to not have him in there. So

you still have and most teams when they get to this point in the season have a top, you know, eight have a top nine. If Michigan has to roll with seven or eight, I don't think it's that much of a difference, but I will say LJ case and very good player, probably more of a factor for next season. If we're being honest, um, what happens there? You know, cause that, that injury could, could go into preseason next year and potentially into the start of the season.

Evan (57:53)
Yes.

Absolutely, it's just devastating for him ⁓ that he can't be involved in this team that he's had such a significant role on to Make a final four win a title like all these hopes that he can still win that technically But he's not gonna be on the court for that which is a real bummer on them on the Illinois side of things You know coming into this game. This was hyped as like Illinois is probably the best offense that Michigan has faced all season and the way that Michigan has struggled in a few of the games this season

that they have either lost or it's been close. It's often been three point shooting. Illinois does that better, maybe at a higher volume than anyone. They have players all over the court who can shoot. So hindsight's 20-20, obviously. No one is a good matchup for Michigan. Like Michigan disrupts everybody. But Illinois definitely struggled in this game. Wagler and Boswell were fine. Like Wagler had 23 points on 17 shots. Boswell had 15 points on 14 shots. But...

David Mirkovic was the only other player on this team who could really get anything going regularly. I think everyone else had under seven points, just seven bench points. A stat that stuck out to me as well was Illinois only had nine assists in this game. It's one of only three games this year they've had under 10. So again, not a surprise when you're playing a team like Michigan, but ⁓ what were kind of your takeaways from Illinois and their maybe lack of execution on the offensive end of this game?

Mike LaTulip (59:26)
Yeah, I think anytime you're a matchup hunting type team, Michigan is going to give you problems because they can switch, they can hold up in those switches. They don't allow you to turn corners. And where Illinois has been really good this year is when you get two on the ball and they're playing advantage basketball or you don't like a matchup that they've now, you know, are starting to back you down in. And so you send a second guy and they can really play out of it. Uh, it just,

I think it had probably more to do with Michigan than it had to do with Illinois. But I do think there were times throughout this game, whether it was when Illinois got up 12 to eight and it's like Kylan Boswell, three off a no passes, Zvonimir three off a one pass, Stojakovic just checks in the game and has like a fade away from 14 feet. It's just those type of shots, the shot selection. You know, I thought it escaped them a little bit in that game. And again, that's what Michigan does to you ⁓ is you just resort to

kind of losing your mind a little bit. And so I wonder if in the next matchup, if they see each other again, you know, you, you, you have to beat Michigan on islands. ⁓ if you want to beat them, which is not an easy thing to do because they don't put themselves in rotation a ton. so you want to, they, they spread out a little bit and Keaton did get the axle a couple of times head up to the rim. And I just wonder if that's going to have to be the answer to where, you know, maybe you, maybe the answer is not bringing so many bodies up into the action. It's.

Maybe put Tomislav in the corner to get Mara away from the action as opposed to having him in and be able to kind of play too. That's just, those are things you got to look at. just think that, ⁓ I do think Illinois is still the top offense in the country, but that particular unit, it's just, like, think Duke isn't a great matchup for Michigan. Just like, think Illinois is not a great match or Michigan's not a great matchup for Illinois. It's just, you know how it works. It's there's.

Evan (1:01:17)
Hmm.

Mike LaTulip (1:01:23)
Every team, it's Ohio State and Purdue feels like every year they just have their number. That's, that's what it felt like in this Michigan game with, with Illinois. I'm still, still bullish on that, on that Illinois team, just cause I think their, their ability to take what they've shown throughout the year, their ability to take care of lesser opponents, take care of the games they need to take care of. That's so important when you get into a single elimination tournament, ⁓ and you're a two or three seat, whoever it ends up being.

Evan (1:01:51)
Yeah, I do. I actually agree with you on the whole, like, taking care of inferior opponents. That's something that Illinois has done ⁓ really well this season. And they actually have a metric for this on my site called opponent strength adjustment. And it looks at how much better you play versus elite competition versus worst competition. Illinois is one of these teams that more sides on the really plays well against teams that they're supposed to beat. And then not that it's been hit or miss against excellent teams, but the level hasn't maybe been quite as good.

But when you're talking about being a guarantee almost to like make a sweet 16, they're almost as much of a lock as anybody that cause matchup problems for almost every team in the country. And yes, like I don't think Illinois is in the same tier right now as Michigan or Duke or even like Arizona or Florida. They're kind of moving above that. But if we're talking about teams in that next tier, which is often kind of the fun tier to consider when we're putting our brackets together of, who are it's going to be the teams outside the one line who can make a final four and

have an upset. I've been thinking and saying this all year, Illinois just feels like they can impose their own style and will on a game more so than almost any other team in the country. So I'm also very bullish on

Mike LaTulip (1:03:02)
I would agree. And I think it's, it's an important distinction to make that you just made is, and I, this is how I view the NCAA tournament is there are teams, Michigan, Arizona, Duke. I'm, I'm very close to throwing Florida into that mix as well, but I'll stick with those three where those three, if they come into each game and granted you eventually you may have to play each other, but if they aren't playing each other, if they come into each game and just play Michigan basketball,

Evan (1:03:17)
Yep, I am too.

Mike LaTulip (1:03:31)
don't beat themselves to like, they'll win because I'm not sure the matchup really matters for those guys. ⁓ if they can just take care of their own business, some other teams like, you know, now you get into the category of like, you could probably say that about Illinois in the earlier rounds, but there's a lot of teams, most teams in the NCAA tournament. It's so matchup dependent. It is just, we'll see if the matchup works out for us is that the type of

you know, the type of thing most teams have to go through those other teams, the Dukes, the Arizona's, the Michigan's, not so much, they can more so take care of business if they just handle what they got to do. So yes, but like that team last year, the Illinois team last year, so much variance. And it's what made you nervous going into March was like, could win by 15 could lose by 15. And luckily this Illinois team, if this was really the first game, felt like

where they, this in Yukon, but at that point they hadn't really shifted over to putting Keaton Wagler on ball. like, it's kind of a hard, you know, different, different type of, ⁓ assessment there, but this Michigan game was the first game where it's like, that's where you really felt like you were outmatched. The other losses, the Michigan state over time, Wisconsin, should have won. Like those were other ones that I thought were, you know, Illinois played well for, and could have won that game in a coin flip.

Evan (1:04:48)
I wanna move on to another team that you watch very closely this season, and that is this season's biggest Cinderella story, Miami, Ohio, or just Miami at this point, 29 and 0, 16 and 0 in the Mac. They had a game Friday. They beat Western Michigan 69-67. You were on the call for this game. And I think with about six and a half minutes ago, people were pronouncing them as dead. Like the discourse online was, it's been a good run.

Mike LaTulip (1:04:54)
Yeah.

Evan (1:05:17)
Western Michigan is up 59 to 50 ESPN had it at like an 84 % chance of a win for Western Michigan over Miami at that point. And it was like, they're finally going to succumb to this. And they've had all these close calls this season. They have, you know, we're five and six and ⁓ in one possession games. Ultimately this wasn't going to fall their way. And then they do the thing they've been doing all year and they come back and win this game. ⁓ you have watched this team more closely than, pretty much anybody. Like what impressed you about this game and, and

sort of bigger picture, like what is the ingredient about this team that makes them so able to continually pull off these kinds of wins and maybe they can continue this into March Madness when the whole nation is watching.

Mike LaTulip (1:05:59)
So when you're up close with this team, when you see them at shoot around, when you see them practice, ⁓ you see what makes them really special. And I really don't think there's anything flukey about it in terms of their record. ⁓ To me, it's everything that's great about team sports, because I think their individual parts on their face are good parts, but the unit together.

is just that's why when when Bruce Pearl talks about like, they're not one of the best teams, it's like, well, what's your definition of a team? Because as a team, ⁓ genuinely, as a team, where it's like, if a team is take all these parts, put parts together, and boom, this is what we get. If that's your definition of it, this is one of the best teams in America, the difference between high major and mid major, and we all know this is size and athleticism.

That's the difference. ⁓ Skill level. mean, Miami is one of the most skilled teams in the country and they've shown that, but on, certainly offensively, but when you talk about, Hey, they just did what they did again late. We ran the graphic. We were actually going to run it the week before in the Miami bullying green game, but just, it just didn't get close, but it was close against Western Michigan, but their clutch time numbers are just, you know, the second it gets tight and it's five minutes or less.

they're not like they just ascend and there's this very unique ability that they have to just play free in those moments. And that's it's honestly what makes them dangerous in March because when they get into close games, their their heart rate doesn't elevate. They play to their strengths, they play it, you know, they play it. And granted, like the thing that I think a lot of people don't understand, especially when you watch that Western Michigan game. So they're without their starting point card.

Luke Skaljic, who makes a lot go for them offensively. Peter Suter, arguably their best player, files out with seven minutes to go. Evan Ipsaro, who also was arguably their best player and their point guard, tore his ACL in December. Like this is, and they're still 29 and 0. So my, like, one of my points too is like, and not to be too long winded on Miami, I get really passionate about this because I've seen it up close, but you know, look at the other mid-major teams that have lost

one and you could throw Gonzaga in there Gonzaga is kind of in a different category. They have two losses now in conference but like, look at Liberty and Navy. Every team this is why this is so rare what they're doing. Every team has that night. Every team has it and Liberty Liberty 15 and in conference and then you lose by 21 at home to Western Kentucky just didn't have it Navy lose to American who's

Evan (1:08:36)
Yes.

Mike LaTulip (1:08:48)
you know, in the middle of the pack in the league, and you just kind of had that night and every night that you think it's going to be Miami's night, they do this again. And so I don't know. I, and what, and what impresses me the most about it, Evan is that Wichita state team in 2014 that was undefeated, ⁓ St. Joe's with Jameer and with, and with Delante West and stuff like those teams had such a physical advantage.

in their league, Miami doesn't have a physical advantage that would raise their floor in every game. They just go and take it. And that's why I think that needs to be rewarded. If they drop one before the title game and don't win the conference tournament, they need to be in.

Evan (1:09:35)
Yeah, I meant so much good stuff there. I think two things for me that stick out about this team is you talked about the team element. This team has seven players scoring 10 or more points per game, seven. That's like that never happens. And the other thing, too, is that ⁓ this just popped up over over the weekend and I noticed it on the team ratings page at Evanmia.com. have different emojis next to teams that can point out certain stylistic trends to them.

Miami Ohio has a lock next to them. What that means is they are one of the most consistent teams from game to game in the country in terms of their performance level, not wavering a whole lot. They're specifically number eight in the country in game to game consistency. Basically what this means is they have shown an ability and that this is part of why they're winning all of these close games, because they never get that far off kilter. They may never be

Like that's one of the criticisms of this team and part of why they're not rated higher in the advanced analytics. Like I have them outside the top 70 still. They're not blowing the doors off of teams. Like you would hope that a, a Gonzaga would do in the WCC, right? But when it comes down to winning games, they are so consistently in their lane and always just being high level production and not overly moving side to side. That's been another characteristic that has been similar for Arizona this year and part of why they've been so good.

So that really impresses me and it makes me feel good about their chances of getting into the tournament. Will that translate against a sixth seed or a seventh seed depending on what seed they get? That's another question. What would be your quick answer on like what's the right profile of team that would be a good matchup for them in March Madness if they end up getting in the tournament?

Mike LaTulip (1:11:19)
I think if you're not ready and you're leaky at all defensively, they can get you because they don't run a ton of set plays. It's very continuity based. find their advantages very quickly. And so they're really hard to prep for. that, that's, so that's, that would be the, it gets into the other conversation too. Like if they lose to Akron in the final, are they a 12? Right. Or are they, you know, if they win out, are they, what's, what do you feel like their ceiling is? I mean, I feel like.

to make it, 10 would probably be the ceiling, right? I think, ⁓ and look, like the thing that frustrates me is,

If they get into the tournament, which I think they should, people are going to use, just like any, just like anything, people are going to use the results as validity to whether or not they should have been in. that's like Utah state loses by 25 last year in the first round of UCLA was Utah state not deserving of an eight seed or 10 seed in the NCAA tournament? No, they were. Yeah. It's a whole different conversation. they're

Evan (1:12:25)
It's a different conversation.

Mike LaTulip (1:12:29)
that if you're again, and we've seen this because I've watched teams prepare for them and shoot around and they're like, we're going to do this, this, this, and this is what's going to happen. And then when the live bolts are going, when you get into the game, it's like, Whoa, like this is not because your scout team can't replicate what they do offensively. And, to, and my last point that I'll make is you mentioned the consistency. Their shooting has escaped them the last, like, you know, five, six games. And then the flip of flips out of is their defense has been like a top 65 defense in America.

So they've been able to win in different ways. so, short-handed at times, that's that, to me, that is the whole story. It's not like, hey, they beat Western Michigan by two, who's 200 and whatever, you know, in your system or Ken Palm, whoever, like that's their, this needs to be rewarded. I'm sorry, like it just does.

Evan (1:13:19)
I absolutely agree with you. I, they should get in the tournament based on what they've done and even against how weak their schedule has been, it's still really difficult for any team to go against that whole schedule, win all those road games, like Gonzaga wasn't able to win all their road games this year against a lot of teams that were of similar opposition and Miami, Ohio has done that. So they absolutely deserve that. Okay, I want to get your thoughts on back to the big 10. Purdue has been a lightning rod for discussion this year.

And a lot of that is because preseason number one team high expectations, all the stuff, Braden Smith and and on paper, this was supposed to be a year that they were going to contend for a title. It seems like they're off the pace there. This week in particular was a rough one because they took two losses on Sunday. They lost at Ohio State, 82 to 74. And then earlier in the week at home, another home spot against a good team that they weren't able to get done, which has been a common trend this year.

Michigan State wins by two. So just kind of big picture. You can go into specifics on either of these games if you want, but just big picture. Like, what are you seeing with this Purdue group? Like, do you think the sky is falling or do you think you still have faith in them and kind of what's your prognosis on them as we go forward towards the tournament?

Mike LaTulip (1:14:35)
I don't think the sky is falling because I still think they can make a second weekend. And I know that's probably not what Purdue fans want to hear. Purdue fans want to hear that you can still go the whole way. The issue is when you're not a team that can overwhelm other teams physically, then you need to be a team that executes at a high level. And that's been the superpower.

of this Purdue team of the Purdue program for a long time and I Zach Edie came in and then you could really it shifted a little bit to where they could really dominate games have that type of guardrail physically but this team in particular your superpower is your execution and and however far you're going to go in the in the tournament is going to be predicated on your execution. ⁓ And so what I've seen and look the Michigan in the Michigan State game. Those.

Evan (1:15:04)
Yeah.

Mike LaTulip (1:15:30)
I mean, those are two teams that Michigan, especially, but probably have a physical advantage over you. and you know, the Michigan state game was close. The Ohio state game was something totally different. The Ohio state game was when I, when I'm talking about execution and you talk about finishing around the rim, those, you know, those little margins that you have to win, not finishing around the rim, not executing well on the offensive end.

But the defensive end, like there were just certain moments in that game where busted switches, poor closeouts, like really poor closeouts. Even from some of their high level defenders like CJ Cox, where it's like you're closing out at terrible angles that lead to straight line drives. then you got, got, you know, Benter and Braden Smith, there's a back screen and Benter takes.

one route on one play and stops it and then the same plays run again. He takes a completely different route and gets jammed. then, you know, they hit a three, Amari Bynum hits a three out of it when they cut it to six or seven or whatever it was. So that's what concerns me the most about Purdue is like here has been your strength and your superpower. And you're not doing that right now. And if you don't have something you can lean on outside of like, Braden, take us to the promised land. That's where it gets concerning. Cause I will say Trey Kaufman ran.

He's been battling the last five, you know, like I'd say even like seven or eight games. I've really enjoyed seeing him turn a corner just from like a toughness and motor standpoint. You need other guys to come with him.

Evan (1:17:07)
Yeah, and in this game, ⁓ both Oscar Clough and TK are fouled out against Ohio State. And in Clough in particular, he only played 19 minutes in this game. And I actually was kind of surprised by this. was looking back at his game logs. Clough has consistently played between 19 and 22 minutes in the last five games. And some of that's foul trouble, some of that's not. But when you take both of those guys out of the equation, ⁓ it's been tough. And I think that's even something I noticed.

in the Purdue Michigan game a couple weeks ago was like once Clough was no longer able to play as much as Painter would have liked for him, it was against a team like Michigan when they were playing as well as they could. They were just kind of outmatched at that point. ⁓ Braden Smith, think, has been like he was more aggressive in the Ohio State game scoring wise. He shot the ball a lot more than he's been recently scored 20 points, but he wasn't able to hit on a lot of those shots. So.

Yeah, I mean like and then you only have five bench points in that game against Ohio State and for Ohio State like this was a Massive massive win. I think it's been coming if we're being honest Like they've had a lot of games against good teams either at home or on the road that have been close They've not been able to quite pull that out. That's been a kind of a thing for Ohio State for the last two years Really? This one I think was due for them and they played really well and showed why if they're in the tournament I think Ohio State could actually be a fairly scary underdog

in some games because I think they're stronger than what their resume shows. ⁓ And so again, it's not like end of the world for Purdue to win this game, lose this game on the road, given what they've had. Now I will say this about Purdue. Right now, again, big picture. I'm often looking at more than just the last game and narrative and stuff. I'm looking at like numbers wise, what do I predict for a team going forward? Purdue is still ranked eighth in the country at evanmia.com and they've actually improved two spots in the last month. They were 10th.

like heading into February and they're up to eighth. And that's in a stretch when they've had three losses. They're four and three with losses to Michigan, Michigan state and Ohio state, but they've beat Nebraska and Iowa on the road, which are not easy to do. Like road wins are tough. And so the profile losses are going to carry a lot of the conversation, but body of work wise, there's a lot of argument that they're actually kind of steady overall. It's just Purdue fans know they want more from this team.

Mike LaTulip (1:19:29)
100%. And it's why looking at the defensive end, specifically, and you mentioned the Cloughman, it's like when Jake, when Jacobson's in there, they're just, Tinders going at him. And so they're pulling him away from the basket. So he can't really be an anchor down there as well. And I also think too, and then maybe this is something that they'll hone in on as they, you know, as they get closer to March, I think they're actually doing too much defensively. Meaning,

You know, you can do that if you're Houston, you can like really put two on the ball because Houston has the athletes to recover. And I don't think, I don't think Purdue has the athletes to recover where you start talking about like taking your rim protectors far away from the rim. then guys who have to be under the basket head in the hole. Those are massively long closeouts, both ways for guys that are just, just okay athletes. So

That's something that could obviously be fixed. ⁓ But the last two games, team shooting over 60 % from two on you, that's not just on the front court. That's a total collapse ⁓ of your defense. So that's something they have to get rectified. And your point on Ohio State, I if there was to be a candidate coming out of Dayton that could win their game once they get into the field, it would be that team. Because they're so explosive offensively.

Evan (1:20:53)
Mm-hmm. Yeah.

Mike LaTulip (1:20:56)
We know what Bruce Thorne can do. Junie Mobley has all the makings of a guy that could have 27 in a game ⁓ as a 11 seed to knock off a six. mean, that's, that is, ⁓ you're right. That's not a team that I would like to play if, ⁓ if I was a six seed or something. So, but yeah, last point on Purdue, like this is what I'll say. You cannot be the team. Like if Purdue has to be the team that doesn't beat themselves.

If you're outmatched physically in some games, especially if you want to win four, if you want to win six in a row in March, like you cannot be the team that beats themselves.

Evan (1:21:33)
Yeah. Okay. I want to end with this. We're getting to the time of year where we're no longer talking about which teams are the best in the sport. Once we get the bracket, it's like, what are the teams that you love and you love the spot that they're in? And so what I want to do is I want to have us both pick three different teams that we are feel or I would say either like or are invested in their success in the tournament, regardless of where their actual chances of advancing far, whether they're overrated or underrated.

like whether the narrative is in their direction or not. This is not like a bracket value pick of like, hey, people pick this team in your brackets. I want this team to do well. I'm invested in them for some reason. I want us to each pick three. I'll start by listing my three here. My first pick is Texas Tech. And I've been talking about this. I'm just so impressed with the adversity that this team overcomes. The fact that they had their best player in JT Toppin go down and are able to

Be undefeated since that and go on the road and beat Iowa State like smack Iowa State around and consistently this season they have done this all over the place coming back against Duke when they had all bunch of players in foul trouble or out being able to go on the road against Arizona and win like they have so many key wins. They're not going to be on the one or two seed line among the most talked about title favorites things like that, but this team has a resolve that I've I've honestly never really seen before and certainly don't think is

quite matched by anyone else in the country. So I love them. Purdue is another team that I am rooting for in the sense of it's been a really difficult season and I still think they have the coach, the veteran players who have been around. mean, like these players, so many of them have played in a national title game and have been here for multiple years and I think they still have the pieces to do it. So I'm really invested in Purdue. And then my third pick is I like Vanderbilt.

Stylistically, I think they've been one of the most fun teams to watch this year. Yes, they don't have a front court like a Florida but what they were able to do going so far into the season undefeated and then continuing to not fall off the map but stay relevant they're ranked 18th right now at my site so amongst teams that can make a sweet 16 potentially be a dark horse Final Four threat I think they're really fun to watch if they can win a game or two or three in the tournament

I think people are gonna be in love with this team, so I really wanna see Vanderbilt do well. What are your three teams and do we end up sharing any of the same picks there? Okay, yeah.

Mike LaTulip (1:24:04)
I had Vanderbilt as well. just think

like, you know, Duke miles getting kind of getting back, getting acclimated. And then I just, I just really want to see Tyler Tanner take off, ⁓ in March. And this is like, obviously I want, have interest in Illinois doing well. that, doesn't count. ⁓ right. State to right. State if they can, if they can finish off the rising league tournament, the other one's Nebraska.

Evan (1:24:15)
Yes.

Yeah, that doesn't count.

Mike LaTulip (1:24:29)
For me, we just talked about Miami of Ohio. And I think Nebraska is another one of those teams where when you watch them, their connectivity, we talked about superpowers, like connectivity is Nebraska's superpower. And I think Price Sanford has been a guy that I think has just been completely, not disrespected, but completely underrated this whole entire season. I think he's played like a first team all Big 10 type of guy. I honestly think he should be in the race for Big 10 player of the year. He probably won't win it.

but you just watch the way that they play their defensive system because that their system does not work if everyone is not pulling their weight. And that's what makes it so fun to watch. Just even seeing them compete in Ann Arbor when rink mass is out, when Frager's out, like it's that's, I would love to see Nebraska do well in the tournament. And my third one, Evan is Kansas because I just, it's such a fascinating, you know, case study on

Evan (1:25:21)
Ooh, fun.

Mike LaTulip (1:25:28)
you got this other worldly talent that you're having to integrate in and integrate out. And can they find their identity before the single elimination hits? Because I think that, you know, their, ⁓ their most recent game or I guess it would be the game before it would be the game before the Arizona game. ⁓ now I'm, now I'm forgetting who they Cincinnati, right? No, it would be Houston, the Houston game. ⁓

you just, if you watch Peterson, there was a little bit more deferring, which I actually don't think is a bad thing because I think when, when Kansas is at their best, it's when they're creating chaos and it's when it's counsel, it's bedoonga, it's white, it's at you, it's in your face. It's, it's high octane. And then if you have Peterson being more of like a attacker in transition, secondary transition spacer in the half court, that's a 40 % three point shooter as a spacer, like

I want to see if that's how they gel this thing together. Because I think Badoonga's made his case. mean, Chin Yulu, there's plenty of guys that are probably going to be up there for defensive player of the year nationally. But Badoonga's in that conversation. I like a lot of their pieces. Tiller, that front court has, I don't want to say struggled, but the last five games or so, they need to get back to form. ⁓ And I'm invested in them because I want to see if they can put this thing together. Because if they do,

they can find themselves in Indy.

Evan (1:26:58)
Those are some fantastic picks. I agree with all of those. I do think Kansas, if they can stay in the tournament, will be one of the biggest talking points nationally outside of the title contenders and stuff. It's just gonna be so interesting to watch. Well, Mike, it's always great to talk to you. I love getting your insight. Today was an awesome conversation. And so I'm just really appreciative for you joining me today. We are gonna have a lot of fun in the next couple of weeks, aren't we?

Mike LaTulip (1:27:23)
Absolutely. And just let me know if you want to come over or me come over. mean, it's you're five minutes away. So I'm glad we figured that out. I appreciate you having me on,

Evan (1:27:31)
Yeah, I've got a good buddy of mine who has a really, really sick March Madness set up every March where they have like four big screens with like stadiums, seated couches, and an exclusive guest list. So that's where I'm gonna be hunkered down for the first weekend. It's gonna be a great time. Well, I appreciate it. Thank you.

Mike LaTulip (1:27:47)
There you go.

Evan (1:27:49)
Thank you to Mike Latulip for joining me today. I really, really enjoyed that conversation with him. And if you want to follow more of his work, he is a regular on Field of 68 in their After Dark coverage, and I'm sure he'll be involved with a lot of their bracket analysis stuff when we get the bracket on Selection Sunday. In addition, as he mentioned, he's often calling games as a color analyst on CBS Sports and has gotten a lot of really cool spots this year because of teams like Miami, Ohio. He's one of the best in the business, so be sure to

be on the lookout for what he's doing in those spaces in the coming weeks.

Evan (1:28:22)
Well guys, it's already been a very long show and we haven't even covered a lot of the other results from the weekend. And just quite frankly, we're not gonna have time to cover the rest in great detail. So I'm really sorry if you're a fan of one of the teams that wanted some more shine on their result. We will absolutely be covering more of these teams going forward. I do wanna quickly just highlight a few of the other notable results that really popped off the page to me, but this is gonna be very, very brief. Not a lot of time for these.

⁓ we talked a little bit about Michigan state and Ohio state and their wins that they had over Purdue this week, but both those teams just in general deserve a little bit of shine. Michigan state has had a fantastic week with road wins against Purdue and then it gets Indiana. That's really, really tough to do in the big 10. And so they've had as good a week as any. And Hey, we always say it January, February is like March is Tom is those time. And he has this team performing at a really high level.

I love what I'm seeing from the Spartans. Ohio state, massive, massive, massive bubble implications win for them. Finally getting one of those huge victories that they needed over Purdue. And so that, I think that puts them on the right side of the bubble. They certainly need to be continually consistent and churning results out as we get towards the tournament. But if Ohio state makes it in the field, they're absolutely going to be a team. I'm kind of licking my lips a little bit about in terms of picking them to be an upset, because I think they have a stronger team.

Then their resume will suggest. So I love that for them. Alabama had a big win over Tennessee. And I think this was a game where they, uh, Tennessee had the lead for most of this game, but Bama pulls that out. That's a really significant result. Gonzaga and St. Mary's met in conference play in the WCC at St. Mary's for the last time ever because of Gonzaga moving to the pack 12 next year. So a very high profile game and St. Mary's really, really looked good in this game. They won 70 to 59 over Gonzaga.

Don't forget about the Gales people. This St. Mary's team is good and beating a very solid Gonzaga team is noteworthy. Mikey Lewis was insane in this game, so watch out for them. BYU lost to West Virginia. That's just another tough result. And hey, if we're talking about what's supposed to happen to a team when you lose one of your best players, like BYU has lost Richie Saunders, the drop in quality for BYU that we've seen, that's what's supposed to happen, folks.

That's not what's happened with Texas Tech. That's why they're defined the odds. But BYU, this has just been tough, tough for them to overcome the Richie Saunders loss. St. John's massively rebounded from their blowout loss to UConn by beating Villanova by the exact scoring margin, 32 points that they lost to UConn by. They won that game 89-57. That gives me a lot of confidence that St. John's is going to be strong. And as we talked about right now, if they were seated where they're at,

I think they would be a strong contender to be much better than that seed line. Kentucky wins 91 to 77 against Vanderbilt. I think that's a very notable win. Kentucky has needed more of these big wins on their resume. Beating Vanderbilt is a big one. Clemson got a much needed win against Louisville and that's big for their resume, 80 to 75. And then probably the most interesting bubble result to me between two teams that were kind of in that conversation is

New Mexico got a win over San Diego State this weekend. It might come down to one of those two teams being one of the last spots in the field. So that was a huge, huge result for New Mexico. There's a lot of other games I didn't even have time to touch on, but those are the most notable ones to me. again, hopefully you guys at least appreciate me going over a few of those results there.

Evan (1:32:02)
Well guys, that is a wrap for our show today. I hope you enjoyed it. We'll be back next Tuesday. As I mentioned, we've got a lot of big stuff coming up in the month of March. So next Tuesday we'll be joined by Seth Davis and Joe Lunardi, really pumped for that show. And then of course the bracket analysis show the following week. As always, this is an ad free show. So please do what you can to help subscribe and support the show by giving us a five star review on Apple or Spotify. If you're listening on those podcasts platforms.

If you watch on YouTube, subscribe to the channel. I wanted to read off a few reviews and comments here. Had a comment on Spotify from Anthony Casta seven days ago. He said, keep killing it, Evan. And his thoughts were, Houston won't make the final four. Michigan is just Auburn last year. Congrats, Florida on the SEC chip. Congrats, Boozer on Enpoi. Very interesting there. And then on YouTube, Adam Nelson2248 said, another banger of a show for last week's show. I appreciate that, Adam.

And then J.Mister had a question on YouTube. said, great show Evan, just curious, do your current numbers on Zona take into account injuries slash illnesses like you did with Texas Tech or did you skip that because they are short-term injuries, not season ending? At the time of this, Koa Pete was still out or questionable and if that was where the injury report had him, then yes, that would take into account. If you go to the team ratings page, it will always assume that the team is fully healthy if you pull it up by default, but you can click.

adjust for current injuries and it will change it to ⁓ accounting for players who are currently out. So that would be like a Caleb Wilson, for example. Once a player is deemed out for the season, every number you see will fully bake that in for the rest of the year. So the default team ratings page will take into account that player not being with you for the rest of the year. So it will always be updated in that sense. But if you want more specific breakdowns of the injury report and ⁓ players, which players are out and how much the line is impacted,

You can view that on any individual matchup preview page if you have a subscription to evanmia.com. So good question there. Thank you all for listening so much. It's gonna be a really fun month. And the fact that you guys are with me really means a lot. I will see all of you guys next