The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:00)
Hey everybody, welcome to the Evan Mia College basketball show. I'm your host, Evan Miakawa, and what an incredible first weekend of the NCAA tournament we just had. We're going to cover all over the next hour here or so. And we're also going to preview every sweet 16 game that we will get in just a few days time. John Martin from the field of 68 is here on deck with me in a second to talk about some of the biggest moments from the first two rounds preview, some games.

and get into the widespread reports about Cinderella being dead or maybe just sleeping and what that means for the future tournaments that we will have. That's going to be very interesting discussion later on. Myron Metcalfe will be joining me to talk about more games from this weekend and look ahead to more sweet 16 matchups. Plus in this week's analytics corner, we will revisit some of the bracket advice that I gave last week and how it's aging after the first two rounds. It's doing pretty good.

A lot of great stuff for you guys, so let's get into it.

Evan (01:03)
right, John Martin, thanks for joining me today. I had an absolute blast watching four straight days of action this weekend. I know that you were in DC for a couple of days with field of 68 taking all in. We'll talk about general narratives about this tournament a little bit later, but let's jump right into the most stunning result from this weekend. Iowa nine seed takes down Florida 73 to 72. This game was.

We needed this result, man. It was so good. Iowa was ahead at halftime. They had a bigger lead till Florida clawed it back. And then we had this amazing kind of end sequence here. Isaiah Brown for Florida goes one for two from the line to go up two with nine seconds to go. And then in the post game, Todd Golden basically says that their strategy was to try and foul up two with a two point lead. And ultimately they failed to do that. Cooper Koch makes an incredible pass.

to Bennett Sturtz on the run, kind of putting him a three on two situation on Florida. And the ultimately he bounced passes it to Alvaro Fulgars in the corner. And if you actually go back and watch the video, as soon as Sturtz makes that pass, he kind of makes a shooting motion and then just starts jumping up and down as Fulgaras shoots it. was just, I don't really think I see that much emotion often from Sturtz. Fulgaras makes the shot and then Florida ends up coming back down the other end with Xavier Lee after the timeout.

and he doesn't even get a shot up. think if he gets a shot up, you hope Florida's bigs can get there for a rebound if he misses it. Does not happen. Iowa takes down Florida. So many great storylines from this game. What were your biggest takeaways from this dramatic win for Iowa over one seed Florida? Reigning champs are out of the bracket.

JM (02:44)
Well, first and foremost, ⁓ I will not be going back and reliving that because it ⁓ was a massive, massive loss bet. First and foremost for me, I don't mind saying that on the front end, but I'm mature enough to be able to recognize just the, ⁓ you know, the quality of that play and everything that had to happen for it to happen. ⁓ And ⁓ then obviously at the end there too, the fact that Todd Golden kind of

got an extra time out because of there was, I guess they were going in and trying to get the time right. ⁓ So he had, you know, so much time and you know what, what did it end up being 4.9? I mean, that's a lot of time, you know, and it looked like to me, Xavier and Lee got the angle. ⁓ I guess he just wasn't confident, you know, and getting it, getting it over those three guys. But yeah, obviously a great win. And I would just kind of showing, I think the power of, of good coaching.

more than anything else because those guys are just like to run the baseline, like you said from Koch to hit starts on the run in stride like that for him to, you know, believe in full garrison. I you're down to I think, you know, I was was actually watching it at a bar and, you know, I was telling my friend, I'm like, don't worry, like Golden's going to foul. This is what I'm told he does. You know, I've been waiting on this. I've been waiting on this. He's going to foul.

Because you just kind of felt like in that moment, Iowa was just, they answered every punch. Like Florida got up four, I think on two separate occasions and you're like, all right, finally here's Florida. They're gonna lean on them a little bit. They're gonna pull away. Then every time, man, Iowa just, they responded back with a big three. It was amazing. But so you're thinking in that moment, if you let Iowa go for the win, they're gonna make the shot. And they did, and they made the shot.

⁓ Obviously again, I think Ben McCollum has the reputation is just one of the, you know, one of the best coaches in this tournament. Has it been the most talented roster? No, but he's got a guy in starts who's, who's on lottery boards for a reason. And he made the play to win the game last night.

Evan (04:54)
Yeah, and ultimately I think, you know, Iowa hasn't necessarily played the most fun brand of basketball this season, but when you get them in this matchup, it really does feel like they are a more of a Cinderella or they have a mid-major feel to them because that's where a lot of these guys have come from. D2 ranks coming from Drake. Obviously Bennett Sturz has far surpassed anyone's expectations of him when he entered Division 1. He's been incredible. And so that's a huge part of Ben McCollum's success, but

JM (05:09)
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Evan (05:22)
The last two seasons, you look back to last year at Drake when they beat Miami or Missouri in the first round. Again, just like a master class in coaching. you know, this was, this was a supposed to be a very even fight. Like Todd Golden is one of the best coaches in the country. Obviously made a national, ⁓ won the national championship last year. And I think it's fair to say Ben McCollum out coached him in this game. ⁓ you know, so what were your thoughts on.

that chess match in particular and ultimately, know, Ben McCollum kind of winning that one and having the upper hand there.

JM (05:55)
I mean, that was that was the difference in the game. I mean, you know, can I can I point you to an exact like, this is where he got the better of him. This is where he didn't get the no. But, you know, it felt like Florida's bigs were, you know, pretty neutralized for the most part, you know, and that's the that's the area where I thought like, as kind of has been the case for all year, that's where they'd be able to make some hay. And they just, you know, condon struggled, man. Chen Yalu was unplayable. ⁓

Evan (06:18)
Absolutely.

JM (06:25)
I don't think I've ever seen Ruben Chinulu look that bad. So I think I think that's probably where you'd start is somehow some way, you know, he found a way to exploit those matchups. I mean, you know, look, a guy like Fulgaris who's able to step out and make those threes. I think that kind of that kind of did a number on him, you know, and then again, it's just ⁓ the guard play from Florida didn't show up. And then when we probably look back on this, we'll say it was predictable that Florida's guard play was

just going to be the hamstring for this team. ⁓ But I did not see it ending in the second round. I did not see it ending there. I didn't think they were going to win the championship. I thought maybe they get a rematch with Houston and possibly they win that one. But ⁓ yeah, to see this end in the second round after being the SEC champs, definitely, definitely shocking.

Evan (07:14)
Yeah, you touched on several key things there. Ruben Chinuelu finished this game with zero points, one rebound, zero blocks. And we're talking about one of the best defensive players in the country. You look back to the very first game of the season, Florida lost to Arizona. Chinuelu had four points and one rebound in that loss. So his performances seem to be very key in when they've not been great. And the last time he didn't score in a game period was more than a year ago. And...

He's one of the best defenders in the country. He was a complete non-factor in this game. And when you talk about Florida's dominance in terms of their bigs, it often comes down to the rebound margin. They've had just four games total this season when they have not out-rebounded their opponent by more than five. And they were even on the boards with Iowa in this game. And so that obviously is a factor. And then kind of human element, you we talk so much about Xs and Os and numbers and whatnot, but Alvaro Fulgarras.

Just for him to be able to make that shot with his father who has passed away and wasn't able to watch this game and his mom watching him for the first time in two years in person, like just a really, really cool moment ⁓ for him to have the confidence to ask for the ball, hit that shot, celebrate with his family afterwards. That was really cool. And it's gonna end up leading to this really awesome.

Match up with Nebraska. Let's go ahead and talk about that game because I think a lot of people are saying this was probably the best game overall from the first weekend Nebraska wins against Vanderbilt 74 to 72 This was just an awesome game awesome ending between two really really good really exciting teams who have been great storylines all year long Nebraska led for this whole game till Vandy kind of took the lead with eight minutes to go throwing punches back and forth late and Nebraska had two kind of tip-ins off of missed shots to keep themselves in it and tie the game late

And then ultimately the winning play was a Sanford passing to a driving ⁓ Braden Frager to get the lead with two seconds left. And then you have one of the most memorable almost makes in tournament history feels like very similar to Gordon Hayward shot Tyler Tanner with that one dribble, the half court he even, if you look at the stills of, of, of the ball, it looks like it's going in the hoop. That was just insane. What were your thoughts on this thrilling win for Nebraska over Vanderbilt?

JM (09:35)
I mean, you know, it was a complete coin flip game all the way. ⁓ You know, I guess Bandy took a three or four point lead late on a, was it maybe a McLaughlin three? And I thought, all right, here we go. But again, that's the, you know, I think there's some, you know, the fact that these two teams are meeting is kind of poetic because when you think about how they got here, it was by you get punched and you punch back and you answer every single time.

Now I feel a little, um, I feel a little sympathy for Vandy Evan because they probably, and I'm not the bracket guy, but they, they probably were better than a five, you know? Yeah. And so I feel a little, I feel a little foreign because, you know, you're probably not supposed to be playing, you know, a four in that spot. But again, I think if, if you're Vandy, you're like, Hey, we will take this match up in Nebraska, right? Like we'll, we'll, we'll find a way to get this done.

Evan (10:17)
I absolutely.

JM (10:32)
You know, had a chance and Tyler Tenner was absolutely fantastic. ⁓ but no, I, I, I think this, the idea that one of Nebraska or Iowa is going to the elite eight is it's kind of nuts to me because at no point watch, mean, I guess at one point we talked about Nebraska at the beginning of the season, maybe the first four five weeks. We're like, all right, are they real? Are they contender? ⁓ cause you know, they started the season. What were they?

Evan (10:44)
Truly.

JM (10:58)
17, 16, something like that. can't remember exactly what it was, but they started the season undefeated for quite some time. But Iowa, I mean, Iowa was a team that we were just, I don't want to say clowning, but we definitely did not believe in ⁓ at any, you know, and it was the same like it's been at starts and the pips. This team is a first round exit. Doesn't matter how good McCollum is. And so the fact that one of these teams is going to the elite eight is kind of like, we don't really know what the hell we're talking about in the regular season for the most part.

I would have never at any point watching them believe that, but it's true. And that is fun. Like Iowa and Nebraska are not, you would never accuse either of them of being a basketball powerhouse. Right. And they're meeting in this game and it's going to be a fever pitch for either program. mean, Nebraska, as we know, has never won a tournament game until this year. And now they're on the verge, potentially think they're favored to win three. So this is a lot of fun. And, you know, it's a tournament where you don't have a ton of upsets.

But you want stories and you want good stories. And obviously either one of these teams winning is gonna be that.

Evan (12:02)
Yeah, incredible theater. think I had in early February, I think I picked Nebraska to go to the Elite Eight and now they're favored to get there. So, you know, I feel good about that one. But either way, ⁓ you know, it was unfortunate, like you mentioned for Vanderbilt, that they had to face Nebraska and that either one of these teams had to lose this game because they both really just performed well in the biggest stage. Tyler Tanner has been one of the most fun.

Impressive players this season. He finished this game with 27 points for assists for rebounds or for steals zero turnovers But on the flip side of the ball, Nebraska just got contributions from everybody like Sanford had 15 Frager had 15 Mass at 13 Bukton Jell at 12 They are so connected and everyone kind of can can fill in wherever I'm very very excited for whoever wins that game between Nebraska and Iowa another big storyline from this weekend was Duke

still without, in their first game of the tournament against Sienna, without both Patrick and Gungba and Caleb Foster, and then even in their second game, still without their full roster. The big storyline obviously was the fact that they just barely got by 16 seed Sienna. They were down 11 and a half time, down 13 early in the second. Now, if you had gone and looked at ESPN's win probability in this game, at no point was Duke never not the favorite. They were still at the lowest it got, was like 65 % that just.

Explains the talent gap, but they really were playing around with fire here You know ultimately Cameron Boozer finishes with 22 points in this game a very productive game But the last two games both against Sienna and TCU TCU they handled a lot more comfortably at the end But Boozer who has been more in a playmaking role even then earlier in the season because Caleb Foster's out He's had five turnovers in each of last two games Just looks a little bit more unsteady. They they ultimately looked

JM (13:28)
Yeah.

Evan (13:51)
completely fine for the most part against TCU, but they're definitely not entering the Sweet 16 with the same amount of confidence as Arizona or Michigan on the one line. Your takeaways from Duke's performance here and kind of how this bodes for them against St. John's and potentially further.

JM (14:07)
Yeah, I think the I think the TCU final is a little misleading. I mean, it was not a 23 point win for Duke. It's in the context of watching it, right? It hit a point eventually where and I don't know what happened with TCU. They missed like 12 or 13 straight shots. mean, credit like obviously, we know Duke defensively is just on another level. They're they're fantastic the way they guard. But, you know, make no mistake until cam boozer.

Evan (14:12)
For sure.

JM (14:36)
kind of took over there midway through the second half. That game was very much up in the air. Like TCU showed up. And not that Duke didn't, but I think Duke is just working through the things that they're working through, right? They're working through No Caleb Foster. They're trying to incorporate Ngongba back ⁓ in. ⁓ I think they're just so reliant on great Kam Buzer.

He can't really even give you good at this stage now that we're talking about Sweet 16 Elite Aided on. Yes.

Evan (15:11)
And he has been great for so many games this season,

but there's been a run of games going back to the ACC tournament when he's not been great.

JM (15:18)
And it was like Virginia was right there, right? I mean, that could have easily gone Virginia's way. Um, I mean, it, took everything not to lose the Florida state. So I just, I don't want to, I'm not out on Duke by any chance of the imagination. Don't don't mistake me. I still think they probably, probably get to the championship game, but I, I think St. John's is going to give them everything they can handle. Uh, I bet St. John's plus seven.

Evan (15:23)
Florida State almost beat them in the first game of the tournament.

JM (15:47)
This is work recording this on Monday. I bet them plus seven Monday morning. This is a massive test for him against Zuby. I mean, that's a grown man. That's a grown man there. That's a physical team. And I just kind of feel like that's going to be a one possession game. Either way, I truly do. St. John's is their love and life right now. I mean, they're one of the hottest teams in the country. ⁓ They're believing. So I still think Duke finds a way to win. But man, I

Evan (15:55)
Huge.

JM (16:16)
I think this is their, their biggest test physicality wise. And I, and I just, can you get great cam? Can he take over against the St. John's midway through his second half the way he did against TCU? You know, my, my guess would be no, but Evan, I've pretty much been wrong about Duke the entire season. So that will probably continue. And the, and the blue devils win by 15.

Evan (16:37)
Yeah, it's gonna be a great matchup no matter what ⁓ before we look ahead to the sweet 16 I do want to talk about one other team ⁓ In this in this first weekend, and that is Texas Texas has an 11 seed has won five or three games in five days This is by no means the most sexy ⁓ Fun Cinderella if you want to call it that that you're gonna have is Texas longhorns are talking about for crying out loud But they beat NC State just barely in the playing game 68 66

JM (17:00)
And you're

Evan (17:06)
And then they beat BYU by eight, they beat Gonzaga by six, and they have just really grown into this tournament after coming into it, very much not one of the more convincing bubble teams. ⁓ in their Gonzaga win, Graham Ekay had 25 points, just three rebounds, no one else got past 10 points, and Texas was the better team. And Volcatitis has really become the big story for this team, he's averaging 18 points, 11 rebounds in the tournament. You've got Daylen Swain, who has just been really, really consistent for them as well.

In their past six games, Daylen Swain has had at least 13 points, five rebounds, four assists. Obviously, Tramon Mark and his heroics, Jordan Pope as well. This team is kind of sneaky good and people I think who have been watching them for a little bit understand that this is better than an 11 seed. I think they're gonna potentially cause some problems for Purdue. Any thoughts on Texas and whether you think they have a shot to continue making this thing rolling?

JM (17:57)
Yeah, totally agree with you. bet ⁓ Texas plus seven and a half this morning. ⁓ And I would say, you know, they're definitely not a Cinderella, but they don't have as much money as probably the general public would think. ⁓ I don't want to put the number out, but most of Texas's rep share, I would say probably 85 to 90 % of it goes to football, right? And so that's the interesting thing is like, yeah, Texas has a lot of money, but it don't go to basketball.

⁓ So they're operating on a budget that's probably a lot less than the general public thinks, even though they play in the SEC. ⁓ But yeah, mean, Evan, you know this, we see these teams that survive and they make the play in and they, you know, they catch something. I don't know what it is, but you know, this is a team that has been up and down all year long. They're playing their best basketball right now. Like you said, Volcatitis, I think Dailin Swain is going to give Purdue some problems, you know, because I think about their point of attack defenders.

CJ Cox went down, we'll see about him. I think it's ripe for a Texas upset here. I know Purdue has definitely figured it out, but again, that Miami game was closer than it was not a 10 point win. It was a two possession game until fouling got it out of control. So yeah, I definitely think with the way that Texas has played the last week and a half.

with the guys they have, think they're built to give producing problems and I expect that to happen.

Evan (19:27)
Yeah, I think that absolutely could be a close game. I do feel like I'm a little bit on the other side of that, sort of where Vegas is at right now. I have Purdue favored by nine and a half. And I think the big thing I look at besides the fact that Purdue has been playing really well going back through the Big Ten tournament is right now at evameah.com Purdue has the best offense in the country, Texas's defense 68th best. There was a massive, massive gap there.

Again, this could be a close game. would not be surprised in the slightest, but I do think that Purdue is going to have their way more likely than not with Texas's defense. I think the more interesting game, if we're kind of looking forward to the Sweet 16 in that region, is Arizona, Arkansas. And when we're talking about like, man, I cannot wait to see how this unfolds. This is a game that I just have so much hope that it's going to deliver specifically the whole Darius Acuff versus Arizona most

You know, steady team in the country, one of the best defenses in the country. I think this is going to be really, really fun. I know that you love Darius Acuff and watching him play. And obviously he was incredible getting Arkansas to the sweet 16. It's going to be tough for any team to be Arizona period. so tall task for Arkansas, no question. Do you think I have a, they have a shot in this game and what are you looking for here?

JM (20:44)
I think the SEC generally has a shot to win every game except maybe BAM in Michigan. think that's just a horrific matchup for 95. But I think that's the worst possible matchup for Alabama. But I think generally if you're betting or picking the SEC in the tournament, you're going to be on the right side more often than not is kind of how I would break it down.

Evan (20:51)
Yeah.

Yeah, we'll get to that in a second.

JM (21:13)
⁓ I think a lot of points are going to be scored in this game. I the overs fine. I think it's 167 and half. I don't think you're really going to get many stops. mean, Darius Aikov is is an efficient player. ⁓ He's just that good. I mean, I know people are talking about him now as a top three pick. Like, I well, I think Arizona could arguably do the best possible job on him. ⁓ I still think he's going to find ways to score and get involved. And you obviously have guys like

Thomas and Trey Richmond, you know, who are again going to find ways to impact the game. I think on the Arizona side, I mean, this is the team that I've just kind of been resigned is probably going to cut down the nets just because of how they are. They are built like they were made in a warehouse and in a factory, man. Like if you just picked like, all right, let me get let me get the ⁓ continuity point guard that's been here for three years, you know, that that's not selfish that will, you know, but can finish when the time is is there. Right. Let me also get the ⁓ let me get three bigs.

You know who are tough tougher than anybody and let me bring one guy off the bench has been in college basketball You know for four years who loves coming off the bench and playing that role Oh, and by the way, let me get this 6'8 international guy who's a who's a freshman who can defend any position on the floor And oh by the way, let me go get a freshman to guard who can shoot 45 % from three and finish, know on the break I mean they just have been constructed. I don't really know where you go

to attack them because like even though they don't shoot threes, they don't need threes and they will make them. But they've just done the math at Evanmia.com and they have said, ⁓ we think we can make 60 % of twos and 60 % of twos is better to us than going 32.3 % from three. I don't know if that math checks out, but that's clearly what they've decided. So.

Evan (23:00)
Yep.

JM (23:04)
I look, think Arkansas can certainly go, you know, blow for blow with him for a time. But I think when you get into the final media timeout and you've been banging all day with Arizona and those bigs and that physicality, I think you just get worn down. So I like Arizona to win. Do they cover the number? I mean, that's the interesting thing, but I definitely think Arizona moves on to the lead eight.

Evan (23:23)
Yeah, I mean, it's so, so difficult to stay with Arizona for a full 40. Obviously, Daris Aikov, think, I will never doubt him to be able to produce on the offensive end. But when you look at the rest of this roster, I mean, for starters, Arkansas has never played a defense as good as Arizona's this season. The only top 10 defense in the SEC is Florida, and Arizona's is third best in the country. So between that and the fact that I think they're just gonna, they're gonna...

JM (23:41)
No. No.

Evan (23:51)
throw everything at Darius Acuff, but two, Arkansas is only playing six guys, meaningful minutes right now. And there is a massive depth disadvantage to this Arizona team. When you talk about Arizona having Toby Awaka coming off the bench, having Anthony Delorceau doing Aristotle has been amazing for them. They just have so many quality guys that they don't have to rely on one player. I do think that is going to be a major factor. And then of course you just, the big factor with me with Arizona.

Colch's team in the country and they have been playing up to competition all season long. When they play the best teams, they are the best. Obviously this is gonna be the biggest game of the season for them and so I think they're gonna give Arkansas everything they can handle. If we go down to the Midwest region, you mentioned Michigan, Alabama, that you think this is, you know, it's gonna be hard for Alabama to hang here. What are you seeing here and why do you think that this is gonna be Michigan runaway?

JM (24:47)
Well, let me just stipulate first and foremost that I love this Alabama team with all my heart. I love them. I do. love, you know, I've been, I watch it basically every time they play as you. That's right. As you know, the Baron Filon jr is my dude. ⁓ and, I truly think he's one of the three best guards in the country. I don't think he gets enough love, in that conversation. But with that being said, when I think about, know, like the, the antidote and like the, the, you know, the.

Evan (24:57)
LeBaron, finally, what's your favorite player in the country, right?

JM (25:16)
the antithesis of Alabama basketball. And for them, it's Michigan because the closest thing to Michigan that Alabama has probably seen ⁓ is Arizona. We know how that went and Florida. And we know how that went. Those are two teams that play three bigs and can rotate them in and out. And that's exactly what Michigan is going to do. And Alabama just got absolutely squashed in those games. ⁓

And you know, you're talking about, just think, I know it, it, it, ideally they'd have Betty Ako in this. mean, I know if you were talking to NATO, it's right. He'd have Betty Ako out there, but like we've, like they've asked so much of Aidan Cherelle and he's met and I think he's exceeded every expectation. Right. But my guy is out there fighting for his life. He's the only big out there. You try, you try to give Noah Williams some, minutes and it usually is a disaster. ⁓

Evan (25:55)
I can't believe you just did that.

Yes, absolutely.

JM (26:13)
It's just a different level, right? Than, you know, what he's used to. So I just think for those reasons, look, Alabama is going to come up with something. They're going to probably have to play zone is my guess. Now, Michigan's going to have to match up with Alabama, too. Now, I mean, those those guards, I mean, we saw what they did against Texas Tech. 19 threes. It's going to be it's going to be hot and heavy. It's you know, you're going to get constant pressure from that backcourt and everybody can shoot.

But I just feel like Michigan and look they're an appropriate ten and a half point favorite I think they feel good about the matchup and while I wish that LeBaron Phylon You know was still playing after this one. I think the road ends in the sweet 16

Evan (26:52)
Yeah, I do think Alabama could win this game, but it's certainly not the upset that I think is most likely to happen in this sweet 16. A couple of quick thoughts on this. I have Michigan favored by 16 points. That is a massive difference from Vegas. The rest of mine are all pretty close, but the main reasons are number one, I do think the Holloway injury actually matters in this game. Even just from a body's perspective, having the guys to keep up with Michigan, I do think that matters. Number two, Michigan, like Arizona,

has played really, really well in their biggest games this season and with very little let up and Alabama has not been that. Like you mentioned, they have not done as well against the best teams on their schedule. I think that matters. And number three, this is kind of a niche one, but I think matters. Michigan has one of the better pace adjustments in the country when it comes to playing better and faster games. Alabama is number two in the country in tempo. They are going to give that straight to Michigan's hands.

And I think in a game where Michigan is the better team, having more possessions that just goes right into Michigan's favor. So I think all that stuff matters. And I do think that Michigan will more likely to not take care of business. Last one in the Midwest region. We'll get to the other regions later on the show. Iowa State against Tennessee. think this is going to be of the games we've talked about, probably the closest one on paper. Iowa State hopefully will have Joshua Jefferson back for this game. If he is healthy, I have Iowa State favored by five and a half.

JM (28:12)
⁓

Evan (28:18)
Tennessee though, as one of the more under seeded teams in this tournament as well as a six, I think they're better than that. They've certainly showed that in their win over Virginia over the weekend. I think this is gonna be a good one as well. What are you looking for in this one?

JM (28:30)
Yeah, I mean, to your point, I they were one point favorite, right? As a six seed over Virginia, they close as a one point favorite. So obviously the market agrees with with your assessment that they were under seeded. I mean, first of all, credit to Rick Barnes. I mean, this was not supposed to be a sweet 16 year. This was this was sort of a rebuild. Now you got Nate Amen in there, so it wasn't going to be bad. But I mean, for them to be in the sweet 16 is obviously a credit to, you know, his ability. You know, I wonder a little bit.

What Iowa State, the way they were able to turn the water off ⁓ on Kentucky, I know, you know, Kentucky's, you know, the game plan was that Kentucky would quit at some point. I don't think, you know, and that wasn't me saying that, was Heisey saying that. But ⁓ I think you could maybe look to duplicate some of the same things, right? What scares me about Tennessee is that my God, man, they are probably the most top heavy team in the country, like...

It's just non-negotiable. We talked about you got to get great cam boozer. You got to get great Jacoby Gillespie or else you're going to get run out of the gym. I mean, and he's played awesome in this tournament. But if I, and we know that Iowa State is throwing the sink at them, they can do that with, with Lipsy and, and, know, those guards and that physicality. So I, I haven't done anything with this game just because Tennessee has been such a, ⁓ they've been such a wagon in this tournament, but

Evan (29:42)
Sure has.

JM (30:00)
I think I end up getting there with Iowa State. I don't expect Josh Jefferson to play. I don't have any information on that, but the guy was on a scooter in a boot. I mean, it just doesn't look like someone who's prepared to play in five days. So ⁓ I still think Iowa State defensively could cause so much havoc on Tennessee. And I think they ultimately pull away. I haven't done anything with it yet, though.

Evan (30:25)
Alright, before we get out of here, let's talk about one of the bigger narratives on this tournament. It was especially a headline as we got towards the end of Friday night and seeing the lack of upsets in the first round. Saturday and Sunday, we got a little bit more, especially in the flavor of Iowa knocking off Florida, and we're not going to have a completely chalk final four. But ultimately, the conversation around Cinderella, is she dead? Is she sleeping in this modern portal era, in NIL era?

Just factually before I set you up for this, I'm a numbers guy and you're gonna bring the vibes here and I really wanna see how you feel about this. Going into this tournament, according to my tournament simulations, we were predicted to get in the first round 4.4 upsets in the first round in terms of 10 seeds or worse winning. We ended up getting four. So that was pretty close to expected. We were supposed to have a single one seed out by the Elite Eight.

Florida is already out. We could possibly get another, but I think it's fair to say we expect for the other three more likely than not to get there. So that's relatively on par. Texas is our lone 10 seed or better or worse, if you rather, in the sweet 16. And then of course, Iowa, neither of those teams are exactly true. Cinderella's like high point, wasn't able to get there. VCU had won a game and then lost. We had some other close moments. Santa Clara almost beat Kentucky, Wright State and Sienna gave had moments in their games. South Florida.

JM (31:38)
Thank

Evan (31:50)
⁓ You know, gave Louisville little bit of run. But a lot has been made about Cinderella. John, I know that you think about Cinderella all the time. Give me your thoughts. What is the state of college basketball here?

JM (32:02)
All the time, man. All the time. Well,

first, let me ask you this. When you say, because I'm just trying to understand the concept, when you say that we were expected to get 4.4 upsets in the first round, we got four, what is that based on? What is that historical data?

Evan (32:10)
For sure.

That is based on how good

all of these teams, not historically, not the historical precedent in the tournament, but rather based on the strength of the top heaviness of the teams this year and the widening gap, we were only expected to get that many, we got that many, but like, is, how this has played out this year is both, ⁓ it's less upset heavy than previous years, but also based on the caliber of teams.

JM (32:45)
Right.

Evan (32:46)
It's

been about what we would expect going into this tournament and that is just less upsets than we've seen in previous years. potentially if it were to play out to expectation that would continue going forward.

JM (32:56)
Well, do you do you and I don't know if this is even possible, but like, how does that like if I just picked out, you know, 2014, you know, what were the expected number of upsets and, you know what I mean? Like, have they been pretty static? Have they gone down in terms of expectation? we know?

Evan (33:10)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's,

Yeah, I

don't have those specific numbers on hand, but anecdotally it's more like six, seven upsets in the first round compared to what we had a four this year. So it's far below the usual expected amount, if you will.

JM (33:21)
Okay, so.

Yeah.

Well, okay. So people need to understand, ⁓ you know, a couple of things about me first and foremost. I, the version that you guys see of me on Field of 68 is, most of the time is a very trumped up version of myself, right? Like I, you know, I have fun. I bring a little BS. I bring, you know, like I exaggerate my personality.

⁓ just cause that's, that's show business, right? Like if you pull me to the side and we had a conversation, like whatever your opinion of me might be, ⁓ it is what it's very exaggerated is my point. And so when I go on here and I yell about Cinderella being dead, like, I don't know if Cinderella is dead so much as the net has probably made all of this that much more efficient, you know? So, so I, I sports bet. And so one of the things that just happens over time,

Evan (34:16)
Mmm.

JM (34:22)
in any given market is it becomes more efficient. just is the way it I think honestly, it hasn't caught up quite yet in the first round. I think that will happen. I think we're going to start getting more inflated numbers because these 16 seeds are just getting destroyed by these historically great teams. mean, look at look at the numbers, right? I look at the metrics, right? And I don't you know, you could you could probably pull up net ratings from five years ago and compare those metrics today. These teams are better.

They are simply better. And so I think that's really as much of anything else. And then you factor in to, yes, the NIL and rev share and transfer portal. So if you just imagine that college basketball and the tournament is a tree, you have all these different axes that are chipping away at it. It's not one thing. It's not, ⁓ man, Cinderella is dead just because it's Cinderella is dead because

Evan (34:57)
I agree.

JM (35:22)
Mid-majors get poached. It's because ⁓ big time top heavy teams have more money to spend than anybody else. And that gap only gets larger every single year. It's the fact that the net has not been around forever. We used to see these things based on RPI, which was bastardized and never quite right. So now we've got a better, more trustworthy and accurate process. And I think all these things, and then the portal, right? You just don't have continuity at some of these smaller schools.

So I do think ⁓ you know, it's just all these tiny axes, but I'll just I'll say this I don't think the NCAA tournament me personally. I don't need it to have upsets You know what I mean? That's not what I mean Is it can they be fun? Of course like but in the end I want the best teams at the end I want for one seeds because that's what they earned over the course of a 35 38

game, you know, ⁓ sample size. So I don't, it doesn't, I mean, look at the ratings. think the news came out today that it's the best rating since 2011 and that's with four upsets in the first round. So it's not a thing where, man, college basketball is dead. And I lament the way it is. ⁓ it may be less fun for the casual because they want to see the St. Peter's and the Loyola's and et cetera. But for me, this is just me personally, people call me elitist, but you know, I want to see the draft picks.

I want to see the best brands. want to see the best coaches. When we get to the Sweet 16 and you're a team that kind of like if you were 16 and 15 but you got hot at the right time, I don't love that. I mean, I know that's part of the gig, but I don't love that. So it does not hurt my feelings in the slightest that we're getting to a more efficient NCAA tournament just to bottom line it.

Evan (37:08)
Yeah, I think all of that is, there's probably a lot of people who feel similarly to you. Just to kind of give some numbers to this, I'm hoping if I have time this week to actually do a full blog article kind of exposing where this change is coming from, especially looking from a roster talent perspective. But this is my kind of running theory right now that not only is the gap between the like true mid majors and the high majors widening because of NIL and roster building,

stuff nowadays. I also think the gap between your generic high major team and the very best teams in the sport is also widening. And I think that is why not only are we seeing less first round upsets from true Cinderella's, but are also relatively speaking, seeing less upsets in the second round, in the third round, and we're seeing more chalky Final Fours because there's also a separation there. And there's sort of a narrative of like, okay, if you have a a ⁓ chalky first round, means for a great second round. Generally speaking, that's true, but I also think

That gap there is also widening too. So if you look at going into this season, before we even knew exactly how this was gonna unfold, if you look at the preseason ratings of all the teams at evanmia.com, and you look at the gaps between these groups over the last 10 years or so, the gap between, in the preseason, the gap between the top 10 teams in the country and the top true mid-majors has gotten bigger every single year in the last five years. So that gap is widening, which makes the

the likelihood of a first round upset smaller. But additionally, there's a really big jump in the gap between even just an average top 30 high major team and mid majors that's more than doubled in its gap in the last four years. So it's basically the score between Texas and a truce mid major would be more than double the margin of victory now than it was five years ago. But also,

the gap between the top 10 teams and the top 30 teams. So just within high major ranks, like you're talking about a one seed versus a five seed, that has also increased more in the last three years. It's much bigger in the last three than it was previously. So I think all of that data kind of goes to show that this tournament, the way it's headed with the way teams are able to optimize their rosters and there's a concentration of talent because of money available to those teams at the top, it is headed in a more chalky direction. I think the sell from the NCAA

to the casual fan is that you show up to March and you see all of these upsets in the first round and that's not gone, but it's way less likely and that means that when we get it, it's gonna feel more special, but the number per season, like we've talked about, is lower than it has been before. My question to you is like, do you think this is gonna continue or do you think there would be any way that we'll sort of see a reversion to kind of what we've seen maybe five, 10 years ago?

JM (39:59)
I don't know how you go back. ⁓ mean, if you somehow capped the amount of times you could transfer, but like, there's just no regulation whatsoever. And I'm not really sure there ever will be, because it's still amateur sports, Evan. Don't forget. ⁓ I think, are we still going with that?

I can't keep up. ⁓ But yeah, I don't think it ever is going back. I mean, think the cell is just, hey, you know, we never we never made any guarantees about this. Like, did we celebrate upsets? You know, of course we did. But we never guaranteed, know, these are these are these this is not world wrestling entertainment. You know, it's not it's not professional wrestling. It's it's not scripted. ⁓ It's it's 40 minute basketball games.

Evan (40:29)
You

JM (40:57)
played by athletes and usually the way these go is that the ones with better the teams with better athletes are going to win the game. Now it is a 40 minute game and the three point shot and introduces a lot of variance and you know and maybe someday we look up and there was a 16 seed that just had an unbelievable day from three and and got it done. But yeah, I don't I don't think we're ever going to go back to the days of

You know, one like it felt like and again, this is all anecdotal, right? I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it's like it felt like for a minute that we were getting one versus 16. We were getting a two versus 15 like that felt regular enough. But no, I don't think there's any putting the toothpaste back in the tube. Not that I even want to again. I don't I don't think it takes away from the tournament experience. It's I'm a guy that wants to see the best win.

Evan (41:43)
Mm-hmm.

JM (41:50)
Like that's, you know, and that's why people hated me for what I said about Miami, Ohio, right? I became like a villain and that's fine. Like I'll stand on, on that opinion that I was never going to pretend like Miami was some great team. They were a team that took advantage of a week schedule. and I'm not mad that they got in. didn't take any, like I'm happy they got in over Auburn, for example. But, ⁓ in the end, I want to see the teams that are, that are the best be there when it's all said and done.

Evan (42:17)
Yeah, and I think that's what we're gonna get. Like positive angle on this is this has been touted as the most talented season of college basketball we've had in a very long time. And we've really only had one of the top juggernauts get eliminated up to this point in Florida. We're gonna have some, no matter who we get in the Final Four, we're gonna have some incredible teams there, some incredible talent. It is going to be entertaining no matter what it will deliver, I'm certain of that. And so we're gonna have a lot of fun with that. John, I will see you.

next week at the Final Four in India. Until then, enjoy watching all the games this upcoming weekend. I'm really appreciative of you for joining the show today. I know.

JM (42:52)
Next week, that's nuts to say.

Like, man, that is, and listen, I am glad that ⁓ I could finally bring some nuance and analytics to this show. think a lot of times, man, you just kind of delve too much into the opinion. ⁓ And so it was smart of you to bring on somebody that my background is in math, right, and analytics. So I'm glad that I could offer some of that to your audience.

Evan (43:03)
Ha ha ha.

man, I appreciate that John, you're the best and I'll see you

JM (43:20)
See you next week, brother.

Evan (43:23)
Thank you to John Martin from Field of 68 joining me. You can catch him on a lot of the Field of 68 After Dark stuff. And in addition, he also runs a local radio show in Memphis talking about sports and all that stuff. So he's very glued in on Memphis, but certainly you'll see him a lot on Field of 68 stuff over the next couple of weeks with the Final Four approaching and all that. So please go check out John Martin stuff over there.

Evan (43:47)
guys, as promised, there were some more great moments from this first weekend of the tournament that we need to get to, plus some more Sweet 16 matchups to preview. And with me to do that is Myron Medcalf, who has been doing fabulous work for ESPN for years. Myron, before we get to more of these specific games from this first weekend, just give me your overall impressions from the weekend.

Number of upsets that we saw, big moments, how it's setting up for a Sweet 16. Did you have fun watching it and overall, how did you feel about it overall?

Myron Medcalf (44:19)
I loved it. You know, I thought we had some great action. I know a lot of people are claiming that they wanted more Cinderella's. I never actually believed that. I think you want the best 16 teams in the sweet 16 and outside of Florida. I think we have that nothing gets Iowa, but I do think it's been a great NCAA tournament. You know, I don't know if it's in IL. I don't know if it's the portal alone, but the teams at the top are very, very good and they're getting better. And I think that to me is the story of what we see in the first couple of rounds.

Evan (44:48)
Yeah, I think when you have a once you go down in Florida before the sweet 16 reminds you that anything is possible in this tournament. But ultimately we are getting a lot of really, really great matchups in the sweet 16 and there have been a lot of huge moments to get to that where the good teams have come close to going out, but ultimately have found their way there. One of the biggest moments from the first weekend for me without a question was on Sunday, the St. John's Kansas finish. This game was not that entertaining.

Myron Medcalf (45:14)
Yeah.

Evan (45:18)
In the first half, think I sent out a tweet saying that this was, you know, pretty, pretty horrific watch. And it was that, but I think that was both teams establishing their defensive identity. St. John's certainly has done that all season, but then all of a sudden, you know, St. John's was up 13 points with about under seven minutes left. Kansas goes on a 16 to four run. Darren Peterson down two gets to the line with 13 seconds left to tie it.

And then you have this weird situation where Kansas only had, think, two fouls in the second half at that point. So they were able to smartly kind of keep fouling and chopping that clock down. They foul four times. We get down to three point nine seconds and Dylan Darling has the true first true buzzer beater that we've had this tournament driving to the lane, releasing the ball. It's a layup. And Rick Patino's statement on this was so funny because basically Dylan Darling in the

Myron Medcalf (46:11)
Yeah.

Evan (46:13)
in the huddle called his own number. Pitino's like, okay, that cool. But then he realizes he hasn't scored a bucket all game. But he says, hey, that's Bell's referring to a moment earlier in the season talking about just how big in the moment Dylan Darling is. Dylan Darling finishes this game with two points. That was his only points of the entire game. Just what an incredible ending and a game that was...

A rock fight between two great ball clubs. Ultimately Saint Johns gets their way to the Sweet 16. Just your thoughts on that incredible finish there.

Myron Medcalf (46:46)
I mean, that's what the NCAA tournament is. Like you'd never see that in the NBA. Like you'd never see a guy who hadn't scored all game go to a head coach and say, hey, give me a chance. Like it just doesn't happen. But in college basketball, it can. And in a way, look back, how smart was that by Petito? Bill Self wasn't anticipating that. know, Bill Self is thinking, I'm sure, you know, who is Darlin' gonna pass it to? Who's the open man?

who's the one that we should fear? Bryce Hopkins had had this incredible day shooting three-pointers. I think he was six for nine. Is it gonna kick it out to him? So ⁓ straight line drive to win the game at the puzzle was just fascinating. And I think it just shows what can happen at this level that really doesn't happen in the NBA. I also think it made me think of something that Bill Self told me last month when I went down to Lawrence to do a piece on all of the Darren Peters and stuff and just the team.

Evan (47:40)
Mmm.

Myron Medcalf (47:42)
And he talked about the lack of chemistry and the line that he told me was when we hit real adversity, have we been through enough together to respond to that? And I think that to me is what you saw throughout the season with Kansas. And I think you saw it on that last play that looked like a team that was lost in some ways. And people are saying, Darren Peterson should have more quarter where it is. It was on him. I think it was an entire team that was trying to go, what do we do?

And that's a lack of reps. think that's the lack of chemistry they've been dealing with all season. Whereas you have a St. John's team that's lost one game in almost two months. That's the difference.

Evan (48:22)
Yeah, and St. John's, you know, came into this tournament as one of the hottest teams in the field. It is not played that way out for every team that has come into the tournament hot. Like some of them have flamed out other teams like Texas who struggled to get across the line are now find themselves in the C16. But for St. John's, it is so clear that they are better than your typical five seed. And there's a reason they were favored in this game against Kansas. And like you mentioned, just the lack of rhythm for Kansas. I don't think this was a failure of a season for them. I think Bill Self

Managed to get through all of the ups and downs of this team without them kind of falling off the map They were pretty consistent overall as a top 20 team nationally with all the Darren Peterson stuff going on and ultimately yes a disappointing ending but I mean, it's Rick Pitino versus Bill Self for sweet 16 only one of them can get there it ultimately You know Kansas came close in this game though. Obviously we talked about Dylan Darling, but Zuby Edge of Fort obviously their best player

had 18 points, Bryce Hopkins also had 18 points. All of those came from three pointers. Bryce Hopkins had six threes in this game. His previous high this year was three. So that is monstrous, monstrous for this team to get that level of production and for Pitino to start calling stuff late. Four Hopkins to keep shooting threes just shows how confident he was. And I love that he's able to have different guys in different spots that, you know, between edge of four,

Darling, Hopkins, all kind of in their own way, being so assertive, it really does bode well for them. And I'll just go ahead and cue you up on this. Massive, massive matchup against Duke. Obviously it's a 1v5. So this is not gonna be a matchup where it's likely to be a coin flip going in. But if we're talking about any five seed that could knock off a one, it could be St. John's. What are your initial thoughts on that game and just what St. John's has done to put themselves in such a good position here?

Myron Medcalf (50:16)
I think it starts with Shire versus Patino. You if you're John Shire, you coach next to Coach K, you were coached by Coach K. I don't think you're intimidated by anyone or anything. But you know, this is going up against one of the goats in the sport. And I'm sure if you're John Shire, you're going, if anyone's going to have a game plan to slow Kam Buzer down and to make someone else try to beat us, it's Rick Patino. I think the physicality of St. John's is an X factor.

Like those are like real dudes, like big, strong, older guys. And if you watch Kam Booser, as you have, I think people don't appreciate how physically strong he is. I did a piece on him last month and everyone I talked to, all these coaches, all these players who've played against him, people who've coached against him, that was the thing, right? His ability to just will his way to the basket. Obviously he draws a ton of fouls, gets to the free throw line. He's a six foot nine force.

Evan (50:57)
Yes.

Myron Medcalf (51:14)
And I think Saint Johns has the the bodies to really frustrate him. So can they turn to someone else? Is it Isaiah Evans getting to the basket the way that he did in the second half against TCU? Is Caleb Foster going to try to come back? And if he does, is he healthy? Patrick Gangba. How healthy will he be? Looks like he was still kind of working his way back in their last game. But I think Saint Johns, at least from a defensive perspective, I think they're built to compete with Duke. Now the question is.

Bryce Hopkins was a 31 % three-point shooter before that went over Kansas. If everyone regresses to the mean, that's not a great three-point shooting team. So if St. John's is St. John's, do they have the offensive firepower to beat a team like Duke? So it's a really incredible matchup at all levels.

Evan (51:59)
It truly is and I can't wait to see what this whole Patino versus John Shire matchup looks like. Old blood versus new blood if you want to call it that and something I'm watching in this game. St. John's if you go back to their Big East Tournament championship game against UConn, they started that game with an opening 10-0 run, which I've now called it an ambush. They did the same thing in their first round matchup against Northern Iowa and then against Kansas. I think they opened on an 8-0 run. It's been three straight games where they have just immediately

Myron Medcalf (52:06)
Yeah.

Evan (52:29)
You know, between their, their offense and the full court pressure that they put on teams just absolutely asserted their will and take in control of the game. Doing that against Duke will be the hardest of all those teams, but St. John's has been successfully just putting things in their favor early. How will Duke respond to that? It's really tough to simulate the type of defensive pressure and intensity that St. John's has. So that's going to be something I'm watching. Obviously cam boozer will be the best player in this game.

But Zuby, Ejiofor, that matchup is going to be awesome. Something that is, you know, the part of the reason why I have Duke favored by nine points in this game, even though I think a lot of people would might suggest it'll be closer than that, is St. John's. Look, this has not been their best offensive year and we saw that they struggled offensively, especially down the stretch against Kansas and early on in the first half. And Kansas is a defense that's think ranked 11th in the country on my site.

They're going to be facing Duke that has the second best country, the defense in the country. So will St. John's be able to keep up with Duke, even if they were able to establish their defensive identity, will they be able to keep up with Duke offensively? I think that could be a big factor in this game. ⁓ but you know, I think they're certainly capable of it. Another moment in the first round that I want to, or the first weekend I want to talk about a little bit is that we haven't gotten to yet. Is this run from high point high point was the Cinderella.

that we, the last real Cinderella that we had, you will, Truman Major School, they beat Wisconsin 83 to 82 in just a thriller of a game. And then ultimately they come up short against Arkansas, but it was it was tied at 83 with three minutes to go. I loved watching this team. I loved the nation falling in love with this team over the course of this weekend. What stuck out to you about High Points weekend here and just kind of the maybe higher referendum on.

the one mid-major school, true mid-major, that was able to really have this type of performance in this tournament.

Myron Medcalf (54:31)
I think we use the word mid-major with this sort of broad brush. And I think we decide that there are 40 good teams in college basketball and 320 plus teams that just aren't on that level. I think we forget how much good basketball is out there. Listen, the crime of a lot of the guys who are at these mid-majors is they're not 6'5". And that's Rob Martin's issue. He's not 6'5". Like that's the only thing you can tell me that's different between him.

and the top guys we see at the power four level. And I think we look down on sometimes teams like that. High Point was the best offensive and defensive team in league play. They won a ton of games. They forced a lot of turnovers. They were a good team top to bottom. And that didn't change in the NCAA tournament. I think as much of as much it was a shock for a lot of people. I don't think it was a shock for High Point that they put themselves in that position. And let's be honest, you know,

The difference between High Point and Arkansas is Darius A. Cove Jr. maybe being the best point guard that Calipari's ever coached. And that says a lot for a guy like that. So I just think we gotta stop with these categories and we have to start watching the games, paying attention to the metrics and giving teams credit where they're due, where it's due. Because High Point was a good team. No, they're not playing an SEC schedule to prove it. No, they're not playing a Big Ten schedule to prove it. But the action that they were running...

They could have done that against a lot of teams and they battled a really good SEC team down to the final minute. So I was impressed, but I think there are more teams like High Point that we just make assumptions about and I don't think that's fair.

Evan (56:11)
I agree with that. And when you come into a tournament as one of the only teams with 30 plus wins, there's something to be said for that. you know, Flynn Klayman talked about it in one of his things he said after the game of like, won 22 straight and the metrics didn't really count for that. Ultimately, they had this sort of X factor that I think, you know, maybe was underappreciated by the general public of their ability to win. The two stars for high point over this weekend were Rob Martin, who had 23 points and 10 assists in their win over Wisconsin.

And then he was just willing them to stay with Arkansas. 30 points in that game. And then of course, Chase Johnston, who was kind of the, the Jack Goukis of this tournament, if you will, of his just crazy threes. And I think the stat for him was his three point rate coming into this tournament in terms of the percentage of shots that he's taking that are threes was 97.4%. That's almost identical to Jack Goukis at Oakland in that final year. He shot almost 50 % from three this year and he had four huge ones.

Myron Medcalf (56:50)
Yeah.

Evan (57:10)
in their first round game against Arkansas. Both those guys were just amazing. What were your takeaways watching them?

Myron Medcalf (57:18)
how well they knew each other. You know, like to me, when you see Rob Martin, undersized guard, you could tell all those plays, all those actions he'd run a million times before. And you could just see the confidence in that, right? Him coming off those high screens, getting to the basket, he knew, right? Like that's just basketball. They're just a good basketball team. And I think with Chase, a guy that confident to shoot that many threes and for a coach to give a player that opportunity.

to just come in and be a legit three-point shooter because you're so good at it, says so much about his value as well. So I just think you saw a high-point team that was so comfortable in the stuff that they were running. And you watch Arkansas late, you can tell Arkansas's a little worried down the stretch of that game because they're like, they're running the same stuff. Rob Martin is five foot nine, 10, 11 on a great day. And he's getting down healed on an SEC team that battled Alabama.

and all the biggest teams in college basketball with ease. That's just a team that knows its stuff and they ran it over and over and over again. So I just think they were creatures of habit. And I think that was just cool to see because High Point did that against really good teams and we got to give them credit for just putting themselves in that position.

Evan (58:37)
Yeah, absolutely. Okay, two first round moments that I do wanna make sure we touch on here. Kentucky over Santa Clara, definitely the best game of the first round. As this game was unfolding, before we even got to the late game stuff, I was already saying, this has been the best game of the first round. The largest lead in this game by any team was seven. ⁓ Kentucky led by seven, Santa Clara led by four.

And with 18 seconds left, get this crazy, amazing sequence that will live on in history. 18 seconds left, Kentucky has the ball down by two, and Owey ends up getting a flare screen. He gets the ball, he gets the bucket, and he would just been the most dominant player in that game. They tie the game, 10 seconds left, Alan Graves for Santa Clara gets the ball on the wing and hits the huge three. With 2.4 seconds to go, the quick inbounds.

way releases the ball at the left side of logo. Very similar to that, famous Steph Curry shot against Oklahoma city. 3.3 seconds remaining. The ball is off his hand. It goes in off the backboard into the bucket. And one of the things that came out after this game shortly was the clock not starting on time. Herb Sendak trying to call a timeout. Ultimately for me as a, a non-biased viewer of this game, stuff like this happens. And ultimately there was other things that

You know, Kentucky still made a very difficult shot to take it over time. Ultimately, they win this game and Brandon Garrison had three huge blocks in overtime. Kentucky ultimately didn't make it out of the first weekend, but that was an incredible game. What were your overall thoughts as you were watching this unfolding live?

Myron Medcalf (1:00:15)
It was fun. mean, I don't take it always shot. I mean, he double pumps it. I don't know how he hits it, but it was incredible. And you know, the Herb Sidneck, I know we got a lot about the timeout. Here's the thing that doesn't make sense to me, and maybe you can explain it. Why aren't we fouling up three? Like, why are you giving anyone ⁓ the possibility of hitting a shot like that and tying the game at the end of regulation? Why not foul? If you put Kentucky...

Evan (1:00:22)
Crazy.

Myron Medcalf (1:00:44)
in that situation where they're filed at the free throw line, what are the chances that they get to three points to tie the game and you go into overtime? So I just wonder why coaches outside of games tell us all the time, this is what works and then don't do it in the game. But you got to give Kentucky a lot of credit just for the way they finished. ⁓ They've kind of been up and down all year and I'll tell you, I'll take it always go go down as a guy who never won as much as I'm sure he wanted to, but was just a really incredible player.

And that moment solidified.

Evan (1:01:15)
Yeah, O-Way finished this game with 35 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. That's the first high major player to, not just the tournament, in any game, first high major player to get that in a Division I game since Trey Young in 2018. Obviously we know the kind of player Trey Young is. Incredible performance from him. And then Brandon Garrison, I mentioned it, he finished this game with six blocks and seven rebounds. O-Way and Garrison being the two key returners for this team amongst a bunch of other incoming.

players and of course a lot of criticism about this roster as a whole but for both of those guys to finish out the season with those big moments, Garrison I think had three massive blocks in overtime ⁓ that were just huge against ⁓ Santa Clara's point guard there. So that was really awesome. And then another big upset in the first round if you want to call it that was VCU beating North Carolina and the big part about this game was it was supposed to be a close game. UNC looked totally in control.

They were up 19 points with about 15 minutes to go. If you looked on ESPN, the probability that UNC was going to win that game at that point was about 99%. So we're talking one of the most crazy comeback wins in NCAA tournament history goes to overtime. VCU ends up winning it and overtime. Both teams look really gassed on the stretch. VCU just had a little bit more left in the tank. Terrence Hill off the bench was the big performer in this game. 34 points, five boards, five assists.

If you look at the last 10 tournaments, Otega Owe had a performance like that. And outside of that, it's just been Cooper Flag, RJ Davis, and Miles McBride who have ever had that level, those 34 points, five boards, five assists in a game. Henry Vesar was great, but ultimately comes up short. You know, the lack of Caleb Wilson was gonna bite them at some point. ⁓ I thought VCU was a really fun team. They ended up proving it in this game. You know, what were your thoughts on this one?

Myron Medcalf (1:03:09)
Yeah, I think you gotta get VCU and Phil Martelli Jr. you know, I think this is his third year as a head coach. It just keeps finding ways to win. You know, it's been remarkable to watch that. And when you come out, your dad's been a coach at the highest level. Situations just like that. I'm sure that gives you a lot of confidence. They didn't break, you know, and if you watch VCU in the A-10, they had a bunch of games like that. They had a bunch of moments where they had to showcase that resilience. And I thought North Carolina got really comfortable.

Evan (1:03:16)
Yes.

Myron Medcalf (1:03:38)
Any team would up 19 points. But then all of sudden when VCU is chipping away at that lead, you can just see a team that's almost searching for a way to get K. Wilson off the bench. You who's going to save us? Henry Vesar was great, then made some mistakes late. It just was a team that fell apart. And we've watched that happen at North Carolina too many times under Hubert Davis, which is why I think he's in a situation.

he's in. think teams in that moment take a lot from their coaches in terms of how confident they are. And you can literally just watch the confidence leaving North Carolina's faces as VCU is just getting more and more confidence to launch that comeback. So fun game, but if you're a North Carolina fan, you got to be furious about how that ended.

Evan (1:04:23)
Let me get your thoughts on this with the Hubert Davis situation. We're recording this on a Monday. The speculation is that there's a decent chance that North Carolina will separate with with with Hubert Davis, but that's not confirmed at the time of recording. And then, of course, the conversation comes if this job opens, who's in that who's in that? So I just want to get your thoughts on this because I know that you're tracking this closely. Like, do you think this would be the right move for North Carolina to let go of Hubert Davis? And if so, you know, what do you think their prospects are in terms of a new coach here?

Myron Medcalf (1:04:52)
Yeah, I mean, if you're North Carolina, I don't think anyone can be happy with the results, right? I mean, this is a team that gets to the national championship game in Hubert's first year, which probably hurt him long term to start that way and have a double digit lead on Kansas and then they don't win and everything that followed from there.

I think North Carolina has to decide who it wants to be in NIL era. North Carolina isn't North Carolina anymore. I don't think Kentucky is Kentucky. I don't think the brand names matter the way that they did. I'm hearing people talk about Dusty May potentially as a candidate for North Carolina. Why would Dusty leave Michigan? He can win championships there. Todd Golden outside of the giant buyout. Why would he leave Florida? So I think if you're North Carolina...

you've got to decide to start fresh. I know there's the whole thing about the legacy and that's great. You can't win off legacy today. And most of the kids you're recruiting have no idea what you did 30 years ago. And I know North Carolina's won more recently, but I think they have to adapt to the times and whoever they bring in, if they bring in someone new or if they keep Hubert, that has to be a priority.

Evan (1:05:59)
All right, let's preview a couple more Sweet 16 games here. We already touched on Duke St. John's in the East. The other one is going to be a brilliant, brilliant matchup between UConn and Michigan State, Dan Hurley versus Tom Izzo, two of the greatest coaches in the sport, both who have incredible, irrational confidence in their team, who have gotten their groups to perform really well recently and on the course of the season. Right now, I have UConn favored by a point and a half, I think that lines up with where Vegas is at. Both of these teams this year,

have done an incredible job of playing up to competition. In other words, they saved their best performances for the biggest opponents. This is the biggest performance, the biggest stage. I think this could go either direction. Certainly my prediction here of, you UConn 70, Michigan State 69 would suggest that. What are you looking for in this matchup? And what do you think is gonna be the deciding factor here?

Myron Medcalf (1:06:52)
Well, then we get to this stage to me, I always want to know what your plan B because we know every team is going to need it. Your star is going to miss shots. Someone's going to get in early foul trouble. Something's going to go wrong in the first half of this game. What's your plan B? And I think you kind of just has more terrorist read juniors who they should play through. Like when he realizes how dominant he could be, you kind of as a force that he can be consistent. Obviously having a veteran like Alex Carabin. I think Braylon Mullins is starting to figure out who he can be.

within this team. I mean, anytime you win the way that they did in solo ball and Silas Demery basically didn't show up two points combined. That says a lot about you kind. Whereas on the Michigan State side, Jeremy Fears has to be great. He has to control the game and the tempo on both sides of the floor. And if that doesn't happen, I don't see how Michigan State wins. Everything they do comes off of what Jeremy Fears does. They've been hitting threes lately. I do think that's something to watch. Michigan State.

being a better shooting team than I think maybe people realize over the last month, month and a half. But just you kind of so many ways to say, all right, this isn't working, we'll turn to this. This isn't working, we'll turn to that. I think Michigan said there's fewer ways to do that if they find themselves in trouble early.

Evan (1:08:02)
That is a great point because everything through Michigan State goes through Jeremy Fears and he's one of the best players in the country. He's one of the most indispensable players in the country and he has been very successful almost every single game this season. But if he's not playing well or if UConn figures a way to take away, where does this team go? And you also just look down the roster on this team and it's like clearly the depth on this team is not as good as UConn's but

I do think Jeremy Fears will be the best player on that court and so his ability to control that game will be notable. Obviously you mentioned Silas Demery and Jalen Stewart who were absent in their first game. Terrace Reed basically took that game over against Furman. They played on Sunday, were you know minutes restriction. The hope is I think that they'll be fully healthy for this game, but you know having them healthy and playing well I think will be crucial in this one. If we go down to the South Regional, you're going to be in Houston for this.

The Illinois Houston matchup kind of a semi home situation for Houston in their home city. Obviously to me, this has been the biggest sweet 16 game I've penciled before we knew how many of this was going to unfold. If Illinois and Houston made it to that sweet 16 matchup for me, this is the most enticing sweet 16 game that we're going to have. And I am so thrilled to be getting this game. I have Houston favored by two and a half. I think that's deserved based on the, the, the merits of what they've done this season, but both of these teams.

are now the winner of this team looks like the most likely team to go to the Final Four out of this region. The stakes feel immense. So what are your thoughts on this game here?

Myron Medcalf (1:09:38)
Well, it's going to feel like a home game in Houston for the Cougars, right? So I think that crowd would be an advantage for them. Illinois is going to show up as well. I just think this to me looks similar to last year's team, maybe with more talent in the backcourt with Kingston-Flemings. I don't think they're as great in the post, but I think this is just a really, really good Houston team again. Defensively, the way that they can just shut your water off. I think that'll be the challenge against Illinois. If that happens, if guys aren't hitting shots because that defensive pressure.

is so intense, what does Illinois turn to? And I think Houston has the ability to really slow them down, control the tempo. And when you talk to people about Houston and playing Houston, they talk about just the physically bruising style. Like those guys just really make it hard to get to your spots. Everyone can hold their individual matchups. They don't have to send help because they trust everyone on the floor. Now the flip side is, can Houston win a track meet with Illinois? These scoring drafts, I think, have to be the most troubling thing.

when you look over the course of Houston's matchups against good squads. Because if it's a tight game and Illinois goes on a run, Houston can get left behind. And I don't think they're equipped for comebacks. And I think that's the worst case scenario for Calvin Sampson. They're suddenly down nine points with seven minutes to play, and they just don't have a gear that they can hit to catch up.

Evan (1:10:40)
Yes.

Yeah, I think ultimately Illinois's offensive ceiling you could argue might be better than any team in the country in terms of what they're able to pull off. They're going against the number one ranked defense in the country, according to Evanmia.com. So that is going to be a absolute enjoyable matchup to watch unfold. And then for me personally, Kingston Fleming and Keaton Wogler have kind of been the two surprise freshmen all season. I have viewed them very similarly in my minds in terms of just being so amazed by what they've done. Now we get to see them.

on a sweet 16 stage playing against each other. I cannot wait for that one. So that's going to be great. And then the other matchup, which is maybe a little bit more of a surprise, Iowa beats Florida. They're matched up against Nebraska. It's the battle of the cornfields. One of these teams is going to be in the elite eight playing for a final for birth. It is absolutely incredible that we have this matchup here and Hey, Nebraska is a four seed. I was a nine, but they are a lot closer in talent and skill level.

Myron Medcalf (1:11:42)
you

Evan (1:11:57)
Strength and then what those seeds might say I have Nebraska favored by two and a half in this game So it's gonna be pretty like it could easily go either direction and so ultimately, you know I was gonna have been at stir to has been controlling games for them He was you know, okay against Florida, but ultimately made the right plays on the stretch on the Nebraska side It's just filled with a roster of guys who are selfless and do what the team needs

Myron Medcalf (1:12:13)
Hmm?

Evan (1:12:23)
Obviously led by you know Sam Hoyberg price Sanford rink mass, but there's so many guys on this team I can't wait for this matchup any thoughts on this one here

Myron Medcalf (1:12:31)
Well, I think it was hard to get any attention in the Big Ten if you weren't Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois being sort of a surprise team. So I was content in what they did, those big road wins. So I don't know how much people actually watched Iowa and Nebraska. I the narrative of Iowa was they came into the NCAA tournament on this really rough stretch. But if you look at them for the first three months of the season, they were hitting shots, they were a good offensive team.

before they hit sort of that roadblock. And now we're seeing them play better again. So I think overall, this is a good team that's finding its way. Again, you beat Florida, that says a lot about who you are. And then I think with Nebraska, we talk about all the great defensive teams you've seen in the NCAA tournament so far. Nebraska was the best defensive team in Big Ten play. And I think you're seeing that as well. The way that they just really corralled Tyler Tanner down the stretch. Not the last shot where he almost hits it. But when they box him in on the baseline,

in the go ahead bucket before that, that's Nebraska's identity. They can defend, they can hit big shots, so I'm just excited to see it.

Evan (1:13:31)
Yeah, both of these teams are so connected as a group. Nebraska certainly, that's part of why they went so far into the season undefeated, but Iowa as well, especially this time of year, they're playing so well together. And, you know, I mentioned it before the tournament, Iowa was one of the more under seeded teams going into this tournament of they're stronger than their nine seed. They certainly showed that against Florida would not be a shock at all if they beat Nebraska in this game. Either way, we're going to have a really, really fun game against the winner of Illinois Houston. You'll be on hand for all of it.

Myron, thank you so much for joining me today. I will see you in a little over a week at the Final Four in Indianapolis, but until then, I really hope you enjoy the games in Houston this weekend.

Evan (1:14:09)
Thank you to Myron Metcalf, who has done a great job for years at ESPN. I have been following his work for ⁓ such a long time and he just does incredible work on the writing side, especially for ESPN, but really everything that they're doing over there. So please go check out his work. He's got a lot of content coming out about the tournament, coming into the tournament. And now, of course, being boots on the ground for Houston in the South Regional, which is going to be just incredibly fascinating. So please stay tuned to what he's doing.

as he's covering the sport, especially for that regional there.

Evan (1:14:41)
right. It is time for our analytics corner today. I'm not going to spend a whole time, a lot of time on this. It's already been a very full show, but the, lot of the brackets advice that I gave last week for filling brackets has turned out to be fairly good so far through the first weekend. Uh, my bracket right now is in the 99.6th percentile, I think, uh, amongst all brackets, which is definitely the best that I've ever done. Uh, 98.99.8th percentile. Um,

So that's when great. think one of the key things that's really been helpful for me and a lot of other people who listen to the show was outlining the under seeded teams going into this tournament. If you remember from last week's episode, I mentioned that under seeded teams, which are teams that are much better than their seed line, win 69 % more games than other teams on the same seed line going in based on, you know, being identified going into the tournament and looking at the past 10 years or so.

This year's under seeded teams list has gone really well.

The first thing is that if you look at all the teams in the Sweet 16 and you look at the four teams in the Sweet 16 that are surprises based on seed line. So in other words, the four teams that are not a one through four seed, that would be five seed St. John's, six seed Tennessee, nine seed Iowa, 11 seed Texas. All four of those teams were on the under seeded list of teams that I gave, which was about 13 long.

Before this tournament, all of them are in the Sweet 16. That is awesome. So running down the list here, St. John's under seeded as a five seed. They're in the Sweet 16. They're matched up against Duke. Vanderbilt under seeded as a five. They almost beat Nebraska. They win a game as a five seed. Tennessee under seeded as a six gets to the Sweet 16. Louisville, the other six that was on this list, wins one game, loses to Michigan State. That's a good performance from them.

Ohio State as an eight was on this list. They lost their first game So they did not reach their potential here, but Iowa as a nine under seeded Beats Florida to get to the sweet 16 that is awesome to see and then Texas as an 11 is in the sweet 16 after winning three games in five days and They were the most under seeded 11 on the board not surprising to see them in the sweet 16. That's really cool

There were a few other 11s on the list. NC State obviously played Texas, so only one of those teams could get even to the round of 64. SMU won their opening game against Miami, Ohio. And then VCU, as an 11 seed straight in the field, knocked off North Carolina. They were also on the board. The other three teams on this list were Hofstra as a 13. They obviously lost to a very good Alabama team. And then there were two 16 seeds on this list. UMBC,

Nothing noteworthy there, but Sienna as a 16 seed really had Duke in a bit of a bind for a lot of their first round game. They had a fantastic performance as a 16. So looking at this list, this turned out really, really good, at least through this first weekend in terms of looking at teams who could kind of outperform their seed. And so very cool to see the performance from those teams there on the under seeded list. So we'll continue to monitor that in future seasons.

But very happy to see that those teams have done so well so far in the tournament.

Evan (1:18:01)
There's a lot of other stuff from this weekend that we haven't even really touched on at length yet. So before we get out of here, I just want to briefly mention a few other noteworthy results kind of from going from from top to bottom on my graph, my bracket here, Michigan State, not really a lot of issues getting to the sweet 16. They win by eight over Louisville. Jeremy Fears had 16 assists in this game. He just continues to be an absolute maestro on the ball. I think he is the best playmaker in college basketball this year.

He's rated that way at Evanmia.com. Cohen Carr, 21 points, 10 rebounds, a huge effort from him. UConn, their next matchup, they got past UCLA without a lot of issues, especially as they had two second half kill shots, which has been something the Huskies have struggled a little bit with this year, but that was huge in the second half. Alex Carabane, their veteran leader, 27 points. Terris Reed had a nice game here, but it was really his.

first round effort against Furman. I loved watching this Yukon Furman game. Furman gave them everything. Yukon ultimately pulled away late. Terris Reed had 31 points and 27 rebounds. Just a Herculean effort by him. I'm looking forward to seeing his matchup against Michigan State. Kind of in the bottom of the bracket, Illinois and Houston both looked really awesome handling business comfortably. That matchup is going to be amazing, amazing television in this week 16. Arizona.

Comfortably in control pretty much the whole time against Utah State though. It was semi-close at times But Jayden Bradley continues to hit big shots and Mo Crevas Has become more and more impactful as the season has gone along he is one of the most impactful big men in the sport this year and Arizona continues to be one of the most maybe the most reliable team in the sport in clutch in terms of closing out games

So I think that they are going to have a great matchup against Arkansas, but have a really tough time seeing them losing that game. Purdue wins by 10 over Miami, despite a Braden Smith, not great game. He broke the NCAA record for assists in their first game against Queens, but he had eight turnovers in this game. But Fletcher Laura had 24 points. TKR had 19. So if Braden Smith cleans it up a little bit, I think that they're going to be in a good spot against Texas. That'll be a fun matchup.

Bottom right of the bracket, Michigan kind of utterly dominated St. Louis in the stretch run of the second half. They looked really, really, really good and will be really tough for anyone in that region to take down. Alabama kind of completely shellacked Texas Tech 90 to 65 was the final score. Alabama was 19 for 42 from three in this game. Just a vintage Alabama shooting performance, obviously without

One of their arguably two best players in Aiden Holloway. Not a problem in the first weekend. Rytzell had six threes. JT Toppin missing for Texas Tech does ultimately come back to bite them and limit how far they can go. I do think that this would have been a much more competitive game if he were there. It was only gonna be a matter of time before Texas Tech ultimately kind of came up short and it was obvious what they were missing without their key star player there. So, bummer for them, but they did the best they could without him down the stretch this season.

Tennessee wins 97 or 79, 72 over Virginia. This was a very good game. My takeaway from this is Jacobi Gillespie. I think he is, has continued to be this season, one of the most underrated players in the country. Tennessee has never been a team that's relied incredibly on one player over another, but Jacobi Gillespie has kind of taken the mantle of the Rick Barnes point guard who does everything. He had 21 points and six assists in this game. And right now, if you go to evanmia.com,

And you look at the most valuable players in the country. According to Bayesian performance rating, is Jacobi Gillespie is the fifth best player in the country. That's the best player in the sec. He's behind Cameron Boozer, Yaxle, Linda Borg, Braden Smith and Jeremy Fears. He is so, so vital to what Tennessee does. And I think, I hope that as they continue in this tournament with their matchup against Iowa state. That he continues to get more love because he has been so important for the Vols. And then last game, Iowa state 82, Kentucky 63.

The big question here was how Iowa State was going to handle Kentucky without Joshua Jefferson. They just had a one point halftime lead. Ultimately, they just kind of took over this game late. Taman Lipsy has really continued to step up and do whatever Iowa State needs, especially without Joshua Jefferson. He finished with 26 points, 10 assists and five steals. Lipsy is one of the best, ⁓ you know, perimeter defensive guards in the country and he is always causing havoc there. Five steals there shows up for him.

Mila Macielovic at 20 points. So a great game for them. I think their matchup against Tennessee is gonna be very interesting. Just five bench points in this game without Joshua Jefferson for Iowa State. They're gonna need more from their bench if they're going to be able to get past Tennessee and have a shot at the winner of Michigan and Bama. But a very comfortable win for them. And that matchup against Tennessee is going to be a really, really good one for sure.

Evan (1:23:09)
Before we get out of here, just want to say once again, I just thought this first weekend was really incredible. There were so many good moments. And for me personally, I also just had a lot of fun watching it. I had a really, really cool setup. My good buddy, Chad, and his family, they have a really, really sweet March Madness setup that they do for at least the first weekend of every year where it's in their basement. are four massive, five or six technically, five or six massive televisions.

They have three rows of couches kind of in stadium seating format where you have a front row on the ground, a second row higher up and a third row even higher up after that. And they have an exclusive guest list of people. They provide food the entire weekend. is just such, is a basketball watchers heaven. And so getting to do that with a lot of ⁓ friends of mine over the weekend was awesome. So shout out to Chad and his group over there. ⁓ Also the show last week,

For the bracket the mega bracket breakdown and some of the other stuff I did really really got a lot of ⁓ great reviews and a just a ton of engagement I you know as Predicted the March Madness show is always going to be the biggest of the year, but for me This is the first season. I'm doing this podcast Just seeing the amount of people who came and listened on podcast channels watched on YouTube

It was extraordinary just seeing the audience that this got. So if you're new and still here after last week, I appreciate you being here. ⁓ This has been a really, really fun journey this season. I just wanted to read out a few reviews as I do from time to time to just thank some of you guys who have been sharing this and listening and all that sort of stuff. So on Apple, we've got ⁓ one from Aeronin12 who said, A plus best bracket overview I've heard.

And from jperry71, amazing data and analysis. No one is better than Evan at pulling the data together for college basketball and then explaining it to us. Thank you to you guys. And on YouTube, there were so many comments. I'll just pick out a few. At Trill P underscore said, this is magnificent work. At NOPVA9973 said, interesting stuff here. Well done with this. And at Daniel Shim 6434 said, brilliant insight. First time I've ever watched March Madness prognostications.

instead of reading it, I really appreciate that. And I have had a lot of fun kind of using this long form format of a podcast and a show to explain this stuff further rather than just putting out a single tweet or doing a blog article. So that's been really, really cool. Thank you all again so much for listening. That is a wrap for our show today. I hope you enjoyed it. We are back next Tuesday to go over the Sweet 16 and Elite Action and preview the Final Four. I will be boots on the ground in Indianapolis for that next week.

So we'll have that show next Tuesday. As always, this is an ad-free show, so please help support the show by giving us a five-star review on Apple or Spotify. If you watch on YouTube, subscribe to the channel. There are a lot of people who watch this who are not subscribed. Just click the button. That really helps grow the channel. Again, thank you guys so much for listening. It truly means a ton to you, to me, and I will see all of you guys next time.