The EvanMiya College Basketball Show

Evan (00:00)
everybody, welcome to the Evan Mia college basketball show I'm your host Evan Mia Kawa and we are just days away from Selection Sunday. We will have a bracket in our hands. I cannot wait This week is going to be epic too with bracket implications everywhere in championship week And we will break it all down on today's show Seth Davis is on deck with me with me here in a second

to talk about the weekend's games, talk about some teams that could make a deep run in March that we like, and we will get into some data on how bad this year's bubble actually is. Later on in the show, the great Joe Lunardi will be here to go full bracketology mode and talk about which teams really need to get some wins this week in conference tournament play to get themselves more safely in the picture. And in this week's analytics corner, I'm going to give you a Cinderella mid-major

that I truly believe will cause some havoc in the tournament. So that'll be fun. Let's get right into it. We are just days away from selection Sunday. We've got conference tournaments in full swing.

Evan (01:08)
got a lot of other weekend games to break down and with me to do that is the great Seth Davis from Hoops HQ who will also be gracing our televisions with CBS for

of the next month. before we start talking about games, we are in the glory days of college basketball over the next several weeks and I wanna actually get your perspective on this.

This week we have Championship Week, where we have all these conference tournaments. We're gonna have more meaningful games this week than we'll have the rest of the season in terms of quantity. Next weekend is March Madness opening weekend, obviously incredible. Then you have the weekend with the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, and then you have Final Four weekend. So of those four weeks, how would you rank those in terms of your personal enjoyment of Champ Week, First Weekend, Second Weekend, Third Weekend, because I know there's a lot of debate about this. They're all great, but for you, what are your favorites?

Seth Davis (02:00)
Well, first of all, thank you for having me. I've been a fan of your work and we all subscribed to your website and I love that you're podcasting and really getting out there. So I'm honored to be asked to be on your podcast. If we're being super personal and super about me, there's nothing like the selection show. This is gonna be my 21st selection show. It would have been 22 except for COVID. Every single one of them has been an unbelievable.

exciting thrill, you can probably imagine the pressure. It's actually kind of a weird day because you kind of show up and everybody's excited. We have an hour long studio show. And as the day goes on, it gets kind of quieter. And then you know, we have a half time and then we fill between the games and then we have that Big Ten Championship game that feeds into the selection show. We do halftime and then it's like

just waiting for the bracket, you know, it's like, is the bracket coming? Do we know if a bracket, what time is it coming? Is it gonna be late? Is it gonna be early? ⁓ You know, you don't have a lot of time to break it down. And oftentimes we've been on the air filling to the top of the show while we're getting the bracket. Now, I'm not exactly sure what we're doing to be honest, but like, sometimes I think like Clark Kellogg might be like, they do a fill in the CBS Sports Network studio to give me a little bit of time to.

Evan (02:57)
Baited breath.

Seth Davis (03:18)
to look at that bracket, but then you're off and running and then it's like over and you're like, what the hell did I say? So that's really ⁓ exciting. And then, know, there's nothing like Thursday at noon, you know, ⁓ you just know, it's like, you just know what's going to be nonstop, certainly for two days, the weekends a little bit quieter, but those two days, Thursday and Friday, you know, for me, it's a physical and mental grind, just kind of powering through.

⁓ But the games always, always carry you through. So it's just, getting excited now talking to you about it.

Evan (03:51)
Yeah, for me, I put Selection Sunday in its own category. That for me is the greatest hour of television in my entire year, always. So that's kind of always in its own tier. First weekend, I think, is unbeatable. ⁓ so obviously looking forward to it. we've got, Championship Week is here, and a lot of stuff is still to be decided. So I want to actually talk about some of the meaningful games from this weekend that we had, as well as focusing on...

What we're looking at this championship week in terms of bubble and seeding implications. So I want to kind of hit a couple different things here. We'll sort of we'll touch on a bunch of these things really quickly, but I want to get your thoughts on these. A pair of results to me that I found very consequential this weekend was UConn losing at Marquette 68 to 62 currently going into the weekend, likely holding that final one seed, losing that game. And then Kentucky goes on the road against Kentucky and wins.

Florida goes on road against Kentucky wins 84 to 77 So the way that people are talking about this those teams have pretty much flipped with Florida now Likely being the one seed and given that they have been a way stronger team on the course of the season certainly in the last month or so it seems pretty difficult that they're gonna drop that and Yukon like this is their second loss that they've taken against a team that's not gonna be in the tournament picture They lost it home to Creighton earlier in the season

and now against a Marquette team that's ranked I think 70th on my website. So for a team that has title aspirations, that's not a good sign. The thing that does encourage me about UConn is they have always played much better against the best teams on their schedule. They've beaten Illinois, they've beaten Florida, they almost beat Arizona shorthanded. And analytically the data backs up the fact, yeah, yes, yes, and killed St. John's, obviously. So obviously UConn is still capable of winning a title, but

Seth Davis (05:32)
killed St. John's.

Evan (05:40)
Do you think Florida has passed UConn for that last one seed and how did these two teams and their performances this week and overall impact how you feel about them going into the tournament?

Seth Davis (05:49)
So I was actually kind of looking at it like if you can wins the big East tournament and Florida wins the SEC tournament, who would have been the one seat? I think there probably would have been a better case for Florida, but for that one point game that took place back in Hartford, I want to say if I'm not mistaken, I've December 9th, if that sounds right, ⁓ you know, you can't to me.

to be honest for a championship contender. Now let's, let's be clear what we're talking about because they are a championship contender, but for a championship contender, I think they're kind of flawed. And, a lot of their wins have been super close. I mean, they were dead to rights at Providence and, ⁓ Providence, lost, ⁓ that game going, I mean, obviously give you concreditor for winning it. ⁓ two very close and competitive games with Georgetown, two points and four points. mean, Georgetown is a terrible team.

Evan (06:26)
Absolutely.

Seth Davis (06:49)
the loss to Marquette, losing at home to Creighton, which is not going to the tournament, barring something unforeseen. So close games with Seton Hall, you know, and then they lose to St. John's, which is fine, but then they turn around and beat St. John's by 32, so you're like, what the heck, right? So nothing this team would do would surprise me. I just think that, you know, they have a tendency offensively to kind of disappear.

You know, I don't know as much as I love Braylon Mullins as a player and a prospect. I don't know that I super trust him. Like I think you can take them out. I think you can guard them if you have a really good wing defender and a great scheme and try to make other guys beat you. You know, obviously Caravan is Caravan, but you know, he was terrible in that Marquette game. So it just kind of makes you wonder, you know, they've been piling up these wins, but they, and you give them credit for winning, winning is hard, but they've been super close. ⁓ there's no doubt that Florida has gotten a lot better.

I'm not positive that I'm ready to quite put Florida in that first tier of top three teams who've been the best teams all year. Florida is still a bad three point shooting team. ⁓ obviously they're better. Obviously they've gelled Duke has injury questions. ⁓ Michigan has a, an injury with case in being gone. So I don't know if I'm quite ready. Maybe I kind of think of those as the top three, maybe Florida's three a, but that's, that's parsing. ⁓ you know, I, think I,

Evan (07:49)
Mm.

Seth Davis (08:12)
I guess to answer your basic question, I think Florida is a better team than UConn. There's no doubt in my mind. It doesn't mean that if they play, Florida is definitely gonna win, but I think that Florida is a better team. And in the end, that's what matters the most.

Evan (08:24)
Yeah, and I think when we finally get the bracket, if that does stay the same and Florida does do enough to keep the one seed, I think when we end up having Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida, not only will those be the four teams with the best resumes in the sport, I think those will pretty much unanimously be the four teams people feel the most likely are to cut down the nets. That's certainly how I feel about it right now. Another team that I think is not going to be in that title conversation necessarily, but absolutely has the capability of knocking off one of these teams.

is Wisconsin. Wisconsin went on the road and beat Purdue 97 and 93, one of the worst defensive performances, I think, even for a bad defensive team in Purdue. This was an absolute, you know, they just let them score buckets left and right. And right now, Wisconsin, they are one of the most interesting teams that are gonna be heading into their conference tournament into March Madness. They're right now 21st at evanmia.com, so they're kind of in the cusp of a team that can make a final four. They're certainly one of the top 30

hottest teams in the country and they have these crazy amazing wins. They've now won at Michigan, at Illinois, at Purdue and versus Michigan State. Those are the four teams that are four of the five best in the conference. They've beaten all of them, a lot of them on the road, but then you also look and they have a home loss to USC who's ranked outside the top 100. They've lost at Oregon. So they've not been able to do that consistently, but when they're hitting the three ball,

like they did against Purdue and like they've done in a lot of these other games, it seems like they're kind of unstoppable. What is your personal, where are you at with Wisconsin? Like, are you gonna wanna take them deep in the tournament? Are you gonna have reservations? Where are you at?

Seth Davis (10:01)
Well, I think you hit all the all the main notes, ⁓ Evan. And let's keep in mind, by the way, they pull off that win at Purdue without Nolan Winter. ⁓ And I don't think that's a long term deal. I think they're kind of kind of like the eight cuff situation where let's just hold them out and get them healed up. ⁓ That three point shot is the great equalizer. And they have ⁓ two outstanding guards in Boyd ⁓ and Blackwell who can go get their own. mean, Nick Boyd

people aren't talking about him enough. mean, what he did ⁓ on Saturday at Purdue becomes unguardable because he can drive you with both hands. He can finish with both hands. He's a shooter and a score quintessential three level player. ⁓ He's had a fantastic season and obviously with Blackwell, mean, you got two guards who can get their own shot and create for their teammates. That's a huge asset. And then you have Billy Alskis who he's like Brigadoon. pops up like every, every hundred years.

Um, and, and slezias. So I think maybe with the injury to winter, uh, Billy Aliscus got some more run and he played really well at, at Purdue. Uh, certainly they can be beaten like a lot of teams can be beaten, but yeah, if you've got Wisconsin, uh, opposite you on, on, on your bracket, you're not going to feel comfortable because you know, they have a Kelvin Sampson has like, he can get to that top shelf in the pantry. Like Wisconsin can get to that top shelf in, in, the pantry, definitely a team to watch.

Evan (11:29)
Yeah, and I think ultimately the big decision when we come to filling out our brackets is they might be more susceptible to lose their first game. Are you going to have the guns to say like, they're not getting past the first round or are you picking them all the way to the lead eight? Because they could easily do that as well. I think there's going to be a lot of dichotomy on this team and it's certainly going to be a lot of fun to watch. Another team that I think there's going to be maybe even more controversy about, depending on how you see them, is Miami, Ohio. This team has finished the regular season undefeated.

31-0, 28-0 in Division 1. They barely got past Ohio on Friday night, but that was as raucous an enemy crowd environment as you're gonna face. And at this point in the season, every single team is giving Miami, Ohio their best shot. Ultimately, Miami, Ohio escapes yet again in another one possession game. I think they're nine and O in one possession or OT games this year, four and O in overtime. So they're pretty much a lock to get in the tournament.

⁓ But what did you take away from this performance? And also just some of the response that you've seen to this team online as more casuals have come into the sport and started paying attention to what's truly the most gripping storyline in the sport. There's been a lot of pro Miami stuff, but also negative stuff. Where do you stand on all of that?

Seth Davis (12:44)
Well, I don't know how anyone can say anything negative about this team and what they've done. Now, I did not like the way they handled the win over Ohio and the behavior. Like, I don't know why, like they didn't even celebrate with each other. There was no, hey, you like you just, went 31 and 0 and it was more important to act like that to opposing fans who were obviously, you know, riding you the whole game. this is an incredible.

story. And to me, what's really cool about it, Evan, is the fact that this has happened just a couple of years after Travis Steele gets fired by Xavier. You know, we had him on on our show with me, me and Annie Katz. And I asked him about that. He just talked about how much it hurts. Like I talked to these coaches a lot. I know how hard they work. I know how hard they grind. You know, the toll that it takes not just on them, but their wives and their family. And then you get fired and you feel like you let so many people down. You got assistance and you start wondering, will I ever coach again? You know, and then a couple of weeks later, he gets

on this incredible opportunity at a really good mid major program. And he's obviously done a great job. You know, the fact that he was able to bring everybody back pretty much from last year's team that lost a tough one in the championship game. it's, it's really, ⁓ you know, evidence of the power of continuity and retention. ⁓ That to me is what has really fueled the story. And then lucky look, you cannot discount luck, you know, shots go in shots go out. They had a banked in three pointers that extend

games in overtime and all that and they just they've been magical and so ⁓ you know I think it would have been fun to have suspense ⁓ going into this weekend will they or won't they are they getting in are they not getting in but you know they can lose in the first round of their conference tournament and it's not going to matter they are in the NCAA tournament they have answered all the questions ⁓ it is an interesting conversation because they do have you know truly one of the worst

schedules in the country, one of the top two or three worst schedules in the country. Like not just a weak schedule, not just a bad schedule, the worst schedule in the entire country. ⁓ But you can't do better than win every game. And they've answered every question. And ⁓ it's just a great, great story. And I would love to see them win a couple of games once they get into the tournament, but the suspense is certainly over. They will be in the NCAA tournament. I'm sure you agree with that, right?

Evan (15:01)
I absolutely agree with that. And I think now we can turn the conversation to from, they getting into, okay, can they actually win a game? Because look, this is not going to be if they end up on the 11 seed line or the 10 seed line. This is not going to be one of the better teams in that seed range that we've ever seen. The predictive analytics are a lot lower on this team, generally speaking, than what they've accumulated in terms of their resume so far. But I still think they're worth discussion.

as like, hey, can they win their first round game? I was looking at some potential matchups today for this team. Obviously we'll have the real bracket. We'll know who they're playing in less than a week. But if they're on the 11 line and they're playing a BYU team who is missing Richie Saunders and has been inconsistent down the stretch, right now, if you plug that in as a hypothetical matchup at evanmia.com, they would only be like a four and a half point underdog in that game. That's absolutely a game that they could win.

If they end up getting to the 10 line, say you're playing a team like, maybe a typical representation would be like a St. Mary's, I would give them right now like a 20 % chance of winning that game. It's not huge, but it's not insignificant. And they've earned their way to be able to play one of these maybe worst teams than if they had gone the traditional route and just gotten the auto bid, been a 12 seed and played a five. Like they're gonna have an opportunity. And I also really hope that we see.

them against Mac or Akron in the Mac tournament title game because those two teams have been the best two teams all year. Akron is also a really strong team. And I think for me personally, if both those teams get there, it's a win-win no matter what. Because if Miami wins, it's an undefeated team going into the tournament. That's incredible. And if they lose, they are still in and Akron gets in also a great team, a potential Cinderella. So I think that'll be a lot of fun. ⁓ And either way, it's just gonna be fun to track that story.

I do want to get your thoughts on one other team here real quickly who is also missing a player and that is Louisville. Louisville goes on the road and beats Miami. Michael Brown Jr., their star freshman, is still out. Will hopefully be back for the ACC tournament, but we don't know for sure. And Louisville has struggled all season to actually get wins against the best teams on their schedule. They've beat up on some bad teams and that's part of why their predictive analytics are still good, but this was a notable result for them without their best player. ⁓ So.

I have been sort of eyeing Louisville for a couple weeks now as a team that could be potentially under seeded in the tournament, given that they're probably going to be stronger than whatever seed line they're put on. This was an encouraging step. ⁓ What did you think of their performance against Miami over the weekend?

Seth Davis (17:34)
Yeah, I thought it was the best game they played all season. I actually ⁓ did ⁓ one of their games at home. I called it for CW. They beat Boston College and they didn't have Brown. They also didn't have Conwell for that game. That was ⁓ that was the game that the Johnson kid, the G League player was supposed to be was supposed to play. And I think Pat decided just wasn't worth burning his year over it. ⁓ So yeah, super impressed that they're able to go in. I think Miami is really good now. ⁓ But

you know, clearly to reach their ceiling, need they don't. Here's the thing, Evan. Even if Brown is playing, which version of Michael Brown are we getting like back issues are tricky. And remember when when he came back, it took him a couple of games to really kind of get in the flow. And then he had that 42 point game or whatever it was. He went over 40. And you're like, wow, I mean, he's like he's a lottery pick, you know. And so, you know, if he comes back as he hobbled like our

Like are they better off playing without him than having him? It's kind of what Kansas has gone through with Darren Peterson. Like you have him, but is he 100 % is it better to be without him than to have him at less than 100 %? That is not something you want to be dealing with going into the NCA tournament. I think certainty ⁓ is preferable to uncertainty. think Kentucky is kind of went through that like with Jalen Lowe, like he was in, he was out, he was playing hurt. Is he going to be ready? Is he not once they shut him down and once they shut

Jane Quentin's down, you know, the certainty helped. Now you still have a lower ceiling because you don't have your best player. So that's kind of where I'm at. I'm at with Louisville, you know, one of just many, many, many, many teams. You wouldn't be surprised if they win a couple and you wouldn't be surprised if they get bounced into first round. That's what makes it so much fun.

Evan (19:18)
Of those teams, I'll just ask you really quickly, of those teams in that middle tier, say between a four and a nine seed, we've talked about Wisconsin, we've talked about Louisville, are there any other teams that will be likely in that seed range that you are really excited and potentially have lot of optimism as to what they could do in the tournament, busting some brackets and maybe being a dark horse pick to make in a lead eight or final four?

Seth Davis (19:41)
Well, I'll tell you who's playing better right now is UCLA. ⁓ And again, this is another great example of, you know, players getting injured and then coming back and the transition from that. So Sky Clark, think missed 10 games with a hamstring and hamstring injuries are tough because you can't really condition yours. can't run, you you can't do lower body work. You can't be on the court. So even when you're healed and ready to come back and you don't want to come back,

Evan (19:45)
yeah.

Seth Davis (20:09)
even a little bit too early because now you're risking re-injury and you pop a hamstring again and now it's another six weeks. So they were kind of dealing with that already with not much of a bench. And then while Sky Clark is out, Trent Perry is just this great player. So now Sky Clark comes back and you know, when they lost it, I think at Minnesota, Trent Perry, I'm not mistaken, didn't score. ⁓ And so there was a little bit of that adjustment. Now when I watch them,

⁓ you know, especially watching them at home that went over Illinois. It's like, look good. Clark looks good. He's aggressive. He's a really, really good, ⁓ defender, you know, getting that flow back with him and Perry. And then, you know, you got guys like, you know, billadoe and, and daily, this is an older team. Well coach, you say whatever you want about Mick. He knows how to coach. He knows how to instill toughness. And then obviously dent has been, ⁓ super, ⁓

interested in Ohio State. It's been interesting the last few weeks. I've been watching Amari Bynum real closely because he gives them a dimension upfront, a toughness, a blue collar. Devin Royal was giving them some of that glue guy presence, but ⁓ Bynum takes that another level. He was their best player over the weekend when they beat Indiana. And again, you've got ⁓ Thornton and Blackwell, ⁓ excuse me, Thornton and Mobley. I was... ⁓

Evan (21:06)
Same.

That's totally fine.

Seth Davis (21:31)
Cross my wires with those two. Thornton

and Mobley in the back court. Just two solid guards who can go get you. So they've kind of risen. I don't think they'll want to take any chances in the Big Ten tournament losing any games there. But to me, very, very interesting team to watch.

Evan (21:46)
I love both those picks because these are two teams that maybe three weeks ago we weren't even sure were gonna make the tournament, but we knew that they had much higher expectations than just being a bubble team this year. And ultimately they have been able to kind of put it together recently and move themselves kind of safely in the field probably for most both of these teams. And I think those are great picks. Okay, I wanna focus on Cinderella's. We've already had a couple, we're recording this on Monday. We've already had a couple.

Seth Davis (21:52)
Right.

I think so.

Evan (22:14)
Auto bids ⁓ from some of the low major and mid major conferences more to come this week of the teams who have already secured their for sure birth into the tournament and will be somewhere in the you 12 to 14 seed range There are several candidates of teams already who I think hey this could be a a really fun Cinderella team a team that could have a first round upset We've got north northern Iowa in the conversation high point in the conversation already has an auto bid

Are any of those teams to you stick out as being like, I'm really excited about this team as being a Cinderella pick. And maybe when we're watching the selection, so in just a few days, you're going to be the first one to call, hey, this team, I'm picking them to go and win their first round game.

Seth Davis (22:56)
Well, I'm kind of digging in on these teams now that they're in. ⁓ And the thing about Northern Iowa is that they've had a couple of significant injuries that they had to go through during the course of the season. They lost a lot of those games. So they were under seeded as a number six in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. ⁓ And so I think they're dangerous. Again, retention, obviously very well coached. They take care of the basketball. They defend.

and they play at a slow pace. That's exactly the formula that you'd look for for Cinderella. So I'm going to be kind of, you know, looking for them. And then I think, you know, Evan, you whoever comes out of the Atlantic 10, whether it's VCU, know, know St. Louis has dropped a few here, but I still think they're a very, very dangerous team. Again, they are an absolute offensive clinic every time down the floor. They're very, very difficult to guard. Sometimes a team like St. Louis, they're going to be better.

outside of the conference because the conference teams are used to playing against those styles and it's kind of your second time through the league. So as the season goes on, you get a little worn down. Now they're starting to play with fire a little bit. I think they're safely in the tournament, but they're, they're getting to the point where, um, you know, you don't want to, you don't want to play that game. So I think St. Louis and VCU, uh, whoever comes out of the eight 10 is going to be very dangerous.

Evan (24:16)
Yeah, I think so too. And I think with St. Louis, I mean, they've been by far the best team in that conference all season. And unlike a team like Gonzaga, who is used to being the best team in their conference and having to deal with a lot of inferior opponents, this is kind of a new thing for St. Louis, right? So having to be mentally switched on every game when you're playing a lot of teams that are below your level, you know, you can't necessarily expect them to be excellent the whole time, but hopefully, like you said, getting into postseason play, getting into the tournament allows them to really play their best ball.

So I love those picks there and I also think I'm very intrigued by Northern Iowa. I'll have more on them later in the show. Okay, last thing for you. You posed a question on Twitter today on Monday when we're recording and you basically were asking, hey, can we actually verify people are saying this is a weak bubble? And I think this is a very funny thing to me because we always talk about how bad the bubble is every single year because the teams that you're watching on the bubble and saying, hey, you need to make it happen and get in the tournament.

they lose games and so it doesn't feel that convincing. So I actually wanted to measure this and I was able to put some data together and basically measuring the difference between the quality of teams that are an average bubble team in a given year to a top 10 team in the sport. And the reason why I'm comparing that is because ultimately I want to know which years have a crop of bubble teams that are going to be in the field who have a decent chance of hanging with the better teams in the sport of

potentially having an upset, a UCLA making a final four in 2021 are like how close, how big is that gap? And so right now, if you rank the worst bubbles in the last 15 years based on the difference between the top 10 teams in the sport and the average bubble team, this year's bubble ranks as the worst bubble year that we've had in the last 15 years. It's 2026 number one, 2015 number two, and then 24 and 25, three and four.

Seth Davis (26:06)
Wow. Wow. ⁓

Evan (26:14)
And I think that we have seen in recent years, obviously the difference between the haves and the have nots has gotten bigger. But I also think the difference between the very best in the sport and the next crop of high major teams has also gotten bigger than ever. So I think that explains some of it, but what is your reaction to actually hearing that, at least according to this way of measuring, that this year's bubble is weaker than what we've seen in recent memory?

Seth Davis (26:39)
Well, that second point that you just looked in actually intrigued me the most because look, you can draw the narrative and it's not hard to connect the dots between revenue sharing and IL. And then also it's like, so I like the way you put it as a top 10 because people keep using power conference and P4, P5. Well, these leagues have expanded. So that's also kind of distorted. ⁓

you know, X number of years ago, like Louisville wasn't in the power conference, they were in conference USA, right? So it's a little bit apples to oranges, but the idea that we're also seeing separation inside the high major ranks, like, I don't know, like, would you have an explanation for that? I don't know, other than maybe the same thing about the NIL gap. But I

Evan (27:15)
Yes.

I don't have

an obvious explanation because you could not have predicted that these exact four teams that will be the one seeds would have been those teams in the preseason. Like it's not like in some other sports, you can pretty much nail on the top five from the beginning of the year and you know exactly who those top five are gonna be. The top is separated this year, but we didn't know who those top teams were gonna be. So that to me is a bit of an enigma of it's not like we could have predicted.

the top is separating and it's these exact teams. A lot of them are in that conversation, like Purdue isn't. Purdue isn't separating. So that to me is very interesting for sure.

Seth Davis (28:01)
You know, it's the NCAA tournament, you know, we may get all four one seeds again, and then everyone's going to go bonkers. You know, we didn't have any upsets last year, but we had a couple of really, really close calls. You know, a bounce goes in a foul call, a shot goes out. And now we have two upsets and everybody's narrative is ruined. Right. So I kind of harken back, there's, there's an expression, you know, what's the impact of the French revolution? It's too soon to tell.

So I think we need to be careful, but there is no doubt, ⁓ know, especially that's why I'm very curious as to what you're saying. But again, the separation between high majors and the top of the high majors ⁓ is also happening. it's, that's super interesting to me. Obviously when I wrote that tweet, I was thinking of you and there's a couple of folks out there who could, so I'd be curious if your fellow, like what would be the best.

methodology, but it's definitely like way over my head. That's why I keep someone like you on speed dial. So when I need actual smart answers, I have someone I can go to. But that is very interesting.

Evan (29:04)
For sure.

Yeah, I'll put it up on Twitter and we'll see what the discourse is around it. ⁓ But at least that was my first attempt at measuring this and genuinely had no clue what it was gonna compute. And it turned out that this year does indeed, at least according to that measurement, have the worst bubble that we've seen in years. ⁓

Seth Davis (29:21)
Because I

have Evan, the thing that sticks with me is, I mean, I think power conference teams have always had an advantage in recruiting over mid majors and low majors. I mean, that's since the beginning of time, you know, North Carolina is going to get first dibs over East Carolina. That's just, that's just the way this thing works. So I'm, still not totally convinced that rev rev share and NIL is changing anything, you know, because like, for example, if you're a mid major coach, ⁓

You have a transfer portal too. So you can get, you know, if you're an eight, 10 team or a Valley team, you can poach the lower major teams. Not everybody's going to go to the high majors. And also you have a chance to recruit high school seniors at a level that you could never have dreamed of four or five years ago. So at the end of the day, the high major teams, the well-resourced programs are going to have first dibs on the best players that has always been the case. So I don't, I'm still unconvinced that.

NIL and rev sharing and all of that is going to really change that or exacerbate that. But the numbers are the numbers. And from what you're telling me, ⁓ you know, the numbers are showing that. So it's something I think is definitely worth watching.

Evan (30:33)
Yeah, good thoughts there. feel like there a lot of stuff is happening in the sport all at the same time, right? NIL transfer portal and a whole bunch of other things, even just the way that teams are recruiting. And so all of it is confluted together. And how can you point out exactly which parts are exactly influencing what we're seeing? You know, there's still going to be a lot more to get fleshed out and it's going to continue to change the landscape of college basketball.

Well, Seth, know we could keep going, but things are about to get crazy for you in the next several days, so I'm gonna let you go. Thank you so much for joining me today and helping prep everybody for what's gonna be an Offerings Conference Tournament League leading up to Selection Sunday. We'll see your analysis on the bracket. It's one of the greatest days of the year, so thank you so much for joining me today.

Seth Davis (31:18)
Evan, my honor, keep up the great work that you do.

Evan (31:20)
Thank you to Seth Davis for joining me today. I loved our conversation and you can find more of his stuff over on Hoops HQ, which is his full site, along with a lot of other great people in college basketball covering the sport from top to bottom, written content, ⁓ video content with Andy Katz and other people. And additionally, like we mentioned, Seth is going to be front and center on our televisions on CBS on Sunday for the selection show.

where he'll be reacting to the bracket and giving us his initial takes on everything. So I cannot wait to see what he has to say for that and good to kind of get some of his early insight on what will be a great week in conference tournament play and ultimately the bracket show on Sunday.

Evan (32:00)
Alright, I want to go ahead and get into this week's analytics corner and do a short but sweet segment on a Cinderella team that I think legitimately has the capability of causing some major damage at least in the first round of the tournament if not further. Last year we had an astounding lack of Cinderella's, lack of first round, second round upsets and I'm not saying that we're likely to have a lot of that coming back this year. I still think the gap between

The best teams in the sport and the mid-major conferences is as big as it's ever been. But if we're picking out a team that I think can do it on the 12 or 13 seed line, for me right now, it is Northern Iowa who just won the Missouri Valley Conference Championship as the sixth seed in the tournament. So this is a team that wasn't even in the top five going into their tournament, but they won four days in a row to capture the conference crown. And I think they have a profile

That is very, very interesting to me as a Cinderella team who could win in a first round game. Right now, Northern Iowa is 62nd at EvanMia.com. That's very respectable for a mid-major team that's going to be on the 12 or 13 line. Right now, Bracket Matrix has them as the top 13 seed ESPN, and Joe Lunardi has them as a 12 seed. So they'll be somewhere in that range, but they are 25th best in defensive rating.

in terms of their predictive defensive strength at evanmia.com 25th. They are also 364th in tempo. So this is a team that is going to be one of the stingiest defenses in the tournament. Their offense is definitely not at the same level, but top 25 defense and one of the five slowest teams in the country. I love this for a number of reasons. Number one, the fact that they are have an extreme thing that they're really good at in their defensive profile.

means that whatever team they're playing could really struggle defensively. And in addition, the possession count is going to be lower. And I love that for teams that are trying to pull off an upset because it lowers the number of chances for a better, more skilled team to eventually run the score up on you. So a low possession game, really stingy defense. They're also one of the hottest teams in the country right now. If you go to evanmia.com and you look on the team ratings page, Northern Iowa has...

Little fire emoji next to them and that means that they are in the top 30 or so teams who have been playing really really good basketball Recently, so they're hot. They just won four games in a row really good defense really slow pace And if I'm looking at a couple other things here, they are one of the more volatile teams in the country Not the most but they're 291st in game-to-game consistency I like that as an ingredient for a Cinderella because it means that they could have bigger swings in performance if they don't show up

they're getting beat anyway, but if they are playing at their best, it could be a higher level than maybe some other teams that are gonna be on that 12 to 13 seed line. So I like the variance there, and if I'm looking at potential matchups that they could have, I specifically am circling if they were a 13 seed and matched up against a four seed in Texas Tech, I think that's a very reasonable game for them. Texas Tech is not gonna be at full strength.

And without JT Toppin, would give, my model gives Northern Iowa a 29 % chance of winning that game. They would be just a five point underdog. That is a very, very reasonable game, a close margin for a four versus 13. So I'd be very much interested in picking them to win that game. Or if they were matched up on the 12 line against five seed North Carolina, UNC is going to be potentially ripe for the picking as well. They're missing their best player and Caleb Wilson.

Right now, if Northern Iowa were to play North Carolina, my matchup model gives North Carolina only a 60 % chance of winning that game. They would just be a two and a half point favorite. So you and I would have a 40 % chance of winning that game. If that were a matchup I had in my bracket, I would take Northern Iowa for sure as an upset pick there. So those two teams, they could potentially get matched up against and I would really like that for them. So I'm really excited about that. ⁓ Looking at some of the best teams that they have played,

Northern Iowa lost by five at St. Mary's, who is the 22nd best team in the country at evanmia.com. They lost by five on the road to St. Mary's. So in the best game of their season, they almost hung with a St. Mary's team on the road. That's very encouraging. The biggest gripe against Northern Iowa is their record overall. They have 12 losses. They're 22 and 12. They lost five games in a row between January 7th and January 21st.

That is a very different team than what we just saw in the Missouri Valley Championship. And my understanding is that they are more healthy than they were back then. So I think that this is a ball club that's better than their record. And at least as of right now, they are my favorite team on the 12, 13, 14 seed line to have a chance of winning a first round game. And we know for sure that they're going to be on our bracket. There's going to be a lot of other bids cemented in the next couple of days. But as we're talking on Monday and you're going to be listening to this on Tuesday,

Northern Iowa currently is my favorite Cinderella pick for the bracket.

Evan (37:15)
Well guys, with just five days till Selection Sunday, it's time to go full Bracketology mode and put our resume thinking caps on, and I am thrilled to have the great Joe Lunardi from ESPN joining us, the founder of Bracketology as we know it. Joe, this is probably the biggest week of the year for you as you put the final touches on predicting how the bracket will look on Selection Sunday. You're in the weeds every day.

scrub and seed lines, comparing team resumes. I wanna pick your brain on some of the biggest decisions that the committee will have to make this week. We'll focus on a few interesting resumes. A lot of teams in conference tournament week this week have work to do. Whether they're safe like in or out, it's not over and they need to get the job done. So I wanna focus on a few interesting resumes here. Let's start with Auburn. Auburn has been one of the most discussed resumes in the sport.

Joseph Lunardi (38:06)
You

Evan (38:09)
And it purely for me is because of that massive loss column. 15 losses for Auburn, 16 and 15. And they're playing in what is the best conference, at least in terms of average team strength again this year in the SEC. And they played a heck of a non-conference schedule, but they're 16 and 15. Their predictive metrics are better than their resume metrics. They have the best win of any bubble team at Florida. But that loss record, it's hard to ignore that.

How do you think the committee feels about this kind of resume for Auburn, and ultimately what kind of spot would you put them in right now as they're heading into the SEC Tournament Week?

Joseph Lunardi (38:47)
I seem to be on a bit of an island with the Tigers and a bit of a maybe a little bit of a personal conundrum in that, you know, unwittingly, I suppose I'm part of the group that has led a charge against Bruce Pearl's comments having to do with Miami of Ohio. it's, you know, so unlike me to get in the middle of one of these selection debates.

But I'll say this, let's cut through all of the stuff that we like to... So here's what it comes down to for me as we record this prior to their SEC tournament opener, which is Wednesday at three, I think, against Ole Miss, which hopefully will provide something directional so that people like me and what we think don't matter.

Evan (39:20)
We're getting the real thing here.

Joseph Lunardi (39:43)
Okay, at this moment in time, it appears that for me and a lot of other people whose opinions I respect, and there are many, in this little corner of the bracketology world, there are 36 teams that it seems like the entirety of our little bracket nerddom agree on and nobody can decide on at large team number 37.

⁓ And for me at the moment at the moment it's Auburn for the following reasons Number one, they did play the best schedule of the group number two They have the best win of the group number three at least half their metrics are the best of the group number four every other Team with whom they were competing just lost

Evan (40:35)
Mmm.

Joseph Lunardi (40:36)
Okay. And I don't ever remember a final Saturday of the regular season when that happens. You know, I always say more teams are playing their way out than in at this stage, but more doesn't mean all usually, but in this case it did. And, and I do think there's a faction of the committee and they've kind of been given the leeway to do this that

is going to take one of those losses away because it was against Betty Ako and Alamance.

Evan (41:10)
So you think that actually could have an impact on whether they're in or out? Wow. No, no, Yeah.

Joseph Lunardi (41:13)
I do. Not on Alabama, on the three teams they beat when they had them.

In fact, when we were in Indy for the mock, there was a statement saying that the committee members, and what do you know, the three teams they beat were all SEC bubble teams. A &M, Missouri, and of course Auburn. So, that's why for me, right now, they're 37th. I think

it is extremely unlikely that they will hold that spot, even if they beat Ole Miss in their opener and maybe even if they advance, because number one, other teams with greater opportunity to not be coming off losses, whether it's Stanford or Virginia Tech or Cal or New Mexico or Indiana or I don't know who.

We've not had any bid thieves yet. And I think that chance that both St. Louis and Miami win their conference tournaments is it's not a long shot, but they're both more than capable of losing, even though Miami hasn't lost yet. Right. And, you know, Avila is hurt for St. Louis right now. He played like

Evan (42:22)
Yeah, it's a lot more likely that they won't get there. Yeah, exactly.

Joseph Lunardi (42:33)
I don't know, eight minutes and they got hammered by George Mason in the regular season finale. The team's leaking oil a little bit, but can't drop out of the field in my opinion. So I'm indirectly saying let's good old coach Pearl have his day or two here because I think the basketball gods are going to take care of this.

Evan (42:56)
I want to bring in Miami, Ohio, not for the sake of comparing them to Auburn, because I think we're kind of past that at this point. Most people admit that Miami, Ohio is going to make the tournament regardless of whether they win or not in the Mac tournament. But purely for the sake of, I think it is worth it if we're talking about Auburn and people want to criticize the fact that they have 15 losses. I think you equally have to talk about the fact that Miami, Ohio on the other end of things has one of the most extreme resumes that we've ever seen.

Joseph Lunardi (43:01)
I hope.

Evan (43:23)
If you put these two, not to compare them, but just for the sake of, we're having to figure out collectively, how do we kind of adjust for these sort of outlier data points? Because on the one hand, you have Miami, Ohio, who is 31 and 0. If they were to lose in their conference tournament, would be 31 and 1. So record looks fantastic, but they're way worse than the predictive metrics. The strength of schedule is one of the worst in all of division one. You compare that to Auburn, who barely is above 500.

But their strength of schedule, they're playing in the best conference in the country, they scheduled aggressively in the non-con, their strength of schedule is probably the best that we've ever seen for a team that was right on the bubble like this. These are such polarizing resumes that I think just at face value, following some of the regular rules or kind of principles we've had in the past, you kind of have to take a fresh look at them because both these teams, for their own reasons, are just kind of so...

Extreme compared to what we normally deal with is that kind of how you felt about it?

Joseph Lunardi (44:24)
Yeah, I think extreme is absolutely the right word, Evan, and I mean, look.

I've been doing this longer than I'd like to admit. And thankfully, smarter, more deeply analytic minds are getting into it. And this is a good thing. And I'm happy about that and proud of whatever's been spawned here. I've been having the middling major, high-end, mid-major debate.

going back to being on the set with Digger Phelps when it was Notre Dame and Sienna in 2000 and whatever in 1998. And there's no right or wrong answer. There's never going to be because we're not comparing apples and apples, right? We're comparing slugging left fielders to good fielding second baseman. You need both, but the counting stats that matter for one to determine value are vastly different.

from the other. So to say, know, Auburn could have gone 31 and 0 against that schedule. Well, that's extremely unlikely simply because Miami's schedule included 14 True Road games and Auburn's won two out of nine that they played. In fact, almost every college basketball team would lose some games playing 14 True Road games.

regardless of the level of competition. Okay? my gosh.

Evan (45:57)
Yeah, I've been preaching this all season like Gonzaga

Gonzaga a way better team than Miami, Ohio couldn't get that done and they lose against a sub 300 team on the road and Miami, Ohio never did that.

Joseph Lunardi (46:06)
Correct.

Like, for generations, road teams have lost what? Or won, you know, a third of the time at best? Because it's hard. It just is. And if going, if winning all your games and sweeping your league was so easy, it would have happened more than seven times since seeding began in 1979. Right? This is only the seventh time.

The other six were all one seats. One seat. And no one is suggesting this is a one seat. There's no NBA players on Miami. Right? Like even if you want to argue who is the weakest undefeated team of the six, it might have been St. Joe's. You know, four, but they had two first round draft picks. Right? And went to the Elite Eight and lost to the Bothers. They were pretty good.

Miami-Bohio would kill to be in the Elite Eight and lose at the buzzer. Okay? We can just stipulate that as close to fact. But there's a huge runway between one seed and the NIT. And I'm of the opinion, now I think it would have mattered had they lost that last game on Friday night, ⁓ even though was an incredibly difficult road environment at arrival and...

all of that, but is there really a material difference in basketball between 31 and 0 and 30 and 1 losing in overtime? Like, the metrics wouldn't have moved at all, right? We know enough because we look at them every day and see what causes them to move. And as I've often said, in no way am I suggesting that that's a healthy way for an adult to spend their time, but it's what we do and it's the job.

⁓ we could have real jobs, at least in my case, I don't. so all that being said, I don't think you can treat Miami the same way you can treat teams that have missed because of lousy schedule strength in the past. They're a unicorn different and above that, or at least alongside of it in a different

lane and for every member of the committee who are going to go number 363 non-conference schedule goodbye and I will be in that camp 98 percent of the time.

We were there at the Mock. There were a handful of first year committee members just kind of watching for a day or two to an hour or two, I mean, to kind of see. And one of them was brand new, representing, I'm not going to name names, but representing a low major as an athletic director. And when we, our group was thrown the scenario of Akron beating them in the final. you know, it was a healthy discussion and a conversation that may very well take place.

this coming Saturday night, right? If not a round or two earlier. This guy said, are you telling me that if my school goes undefeated, we're not making the tournament? And it was somebody from a league lower than the Mid-American. And I said, well, that's what some people are telling you. I said, I don't happen to be in that camp because I think that Division I men's basketball

Well, it's too large for one thing. But this is the reality today. And the Mid-American is right kind of in the middle and a member in good standing. if a committee of the whole representing all of the membership leaves out a team that won every game it played, I think we've kind of...

not just lost credibility in the eyes of the public, but we've just lost the plot of what's important. And that's why I was rooting handily for them the other night because I was kind of tired of the debate and ready to move on to something else.

Evan (50:08)
Exactly. Yeah, totally.

Totally, yep. Okay, last real quick question on this. If Miami goes and wins their conference tournament, gets in the field no matter what, but they'll have a win over likely Akron in the title game if that were to happen, where do you think they would be seeded in that sense? Can they, right now they still seem a consensus 11 seed. Do they have a chance at being a 10 or a nine or even an eight based on going into the tournament with a zero in their loss record?

Joseph Lunardi (50:30)
Mm-hmm.

And I don't have any data to support this, Evan, just anecdotal and, you know, the longest memory of all of us who do this. I think if they went out, they're going to be in an eight, nine game. There have been instances over the years when there's been real disparate. Like I remember one year, like this goes way back in the RPI days. New Mexico was like in the seventies in the RPI, but ranked in the top 20.

Like this goes back even before it was a top 25. Okay. And they had no idea what to do in New Mexico. They were in an 898. It's almost like the island of misfit toys. Right. And, and I, I think there'll be a nine. I think they could even be a 10. And I think if they lose, there'll be an 11 and then based on bid thievery or

silly outcomes somewhere. Could they be in the first four in Dayton? Yes. I still think it's unlikely.

Evan (51:49)
Yeah. Okay, let's move to some other more of the major conferences here and talk about some of the teams that are right kind of in the bubble conversation. I want to start with a team. Just get your quick thoughts on this. Cincinnati had no business being in the tournament a month ago and all of a sudden they have found themselves in I think last I checked they were in your next four out. They're going into the big 12 as a nine seed. Obviously they need to get some work done in this conference tournament in order to be

kind of move themselves onto the right side of the bubble. But the fact that they're even here has been amazing. And looking at what they have ahead of them, their first game will be against Utah. I give them an 86 % chance of winning that game. Then they would be playing eight seed UCF. There would still be a favorite in that game. And then basically they would then play Arizona. And that to me is like, that is the game that is in my mind. If they win that, are they on the right side of the bubble or does it take another one? So for you, what do you think they would have to do?

in order to get themselves in a much more comfortable situation than where they find themselves now.

Joseph Lunardi (52:53)
Well, for the purpose of there's only one way to look at it. Let's say that there are no big thieves like they were last year, none versus five the year before. It's probably going to be one or two, but let's just say, I think those wins would be enough. Beating Arizona would be enough and that would be on Thursday.

So that would be a quarterfinal on Thursday. That would be enough time for it to percolate and actually be reflected, I think, when the committee is talking about teams in Cincinnati's range. They may not have even gotten to teams yet in Cincinnati's range. You know, it's funny, Evan, I just did a national media conference call with Charlie Cream that we do every year, our women's guy.

And it never occurred to me until today, like all their power conferences just wrapped up. So like there's plenty of, well, they moved here because they went further than so and so in their other teams, leagues, conference tournament. That doesn't happen with the men. Like we're lucky to have the games considered at all. Right. And we were both in the room. We heard what the staff said and the committee members said about how they're all dialed in. There's lots of evidence to suggest that they're not.

Okay, and they may think they are.

But again, well, like I, this is incredibly arrogant and I don't mean it to come across this way. Like I've been doing it three times as long as any of the people in the room, except for Warlock. And like, show me, prove to me. Like when you put a team, when you see a team ahead of another who they just lost to on Sunday and it was.

Evan (54:20)
Until they prove us otherwise, the track record is the track record.

Joseph Lunardi (54:46)
two teams that were neck and neck, it feels to me like you're heading to the airport. But okay, fine. I take them at their word. They're good people. They tried to do a good job. They try to be fair. I'm not a conspiracy theorist. Nobody wakes up on Sunday morning and says, I want to do a crappy job today. So people like Joe and Evan will criticize me. No one thinks that way. Okay. And a hundred others that, that, you know, would, would throw darts.

But just the reality of Cincinnati is if you want to pick a starting point to redo their metrics, they're pretty good. And I mean, they were bad. And I would actually call Oklahoma the poor man's Cincinnati, right? Of trying to, who was it that won the Belmont from way on the outside?

Evan (55:32)
Mm-hmm.

Joseph Lunardi (55:41)
And or that Olympics, you know the guy in the five miles who had a sprint Like they're both trying to do that I think Cincinnati has a better chance to make it because they might actually they are better than Utah and they're there No worse than equal to UCF Another conversation is how badly is that hurt UCF? ⁓ You will see we'll see ⁓

Evan (56:03)
Mm.

Yeah.

Joseph Lunardi (56:09)
I wouldn't say it's a long shot anymore for Cincinnati. They got kind of a sluggish chance here.

Evan (56:15)
Yeah, they got to, ultimately it comes down to winning a big game at least and, yep, yep, and if they can do that, then that'll also make them a really enticing team if they do get in the tournament. think a lot of people will be looking at them to actually win some games, which would be cool. In the SEC, we already talked about Auburn, but there are three other teams that are right now currently in the tournament picture in Texas A Missouri, and Texas who are all, you know,

Joseph Lunardi (56:19)
They have to win a big up game when everyone's watching.

Mm-hmm.

Evan (56:43)
not like right on the bubble, but definitely don't want to be messing around in the SEC tournament. So right now, based on your latest bracketology, Texas A &M 21 and 10, a nine seed, Missouri 20 and 11, 10 seed in the last four buys category for you, Texas 17 and 13, last four buys, also a 10 seed. For any of those teams, do you think they have a chance at dropping out of the field? Again, assuming we don't see anything

Joseph Lunardi (56:50)
Yeah.

Evan (57:12)
crazy happen with bid thievery? Let's make that assumption going forward. Do you think they could lose their first game of the tournament and all of a sudden be dicey? Or do think that they'll all still be pretty comfortably in?

Joseph Lunardi (57:21)
and I'll make it.

I'm not sure the word would be comfortable if they lose their opening round games, but I think each of them has too far to fall without whatever the opposite of help is in terms of bid availability. It's funny. I have had those three on my board and I keep juggling the order of them.

And there three other SEC teams on or around the five line, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Vandy, who I also can't separate. And it almost depends like on what color socks I'm wearing that day. Like, I'm like, okay, who, who just, it's not even like who just won or lost their last game. It's almost like if I'm doing it at night when games run, who just made a basket? Like, yeah, I'll move them. They're the best five. Right.

I think Arkansas, of the three on the five, I think they're the ones that can go the furthest in the tournament. As for the other three, I don't have any idea. Maybe Texas because they have the most really good wins. So if you're going by upside, and the best thing I can say about them is they have a better resume than they did this time last year when they made it at six and 12 in the league.

Evan (58:43)
Yeah, and that's interesting too that you say that given that, you know, they made the tournament last year, the SEC was better than it was last year, so the strength of schedule stuff looked even better, and yet you're saying that they still have a ⁓ better looking resume than they did last year. That certainly says something.

Joseph Lunardi (58:43)
and there should be a law but

Yes.

Yeah, what are they like seven and seven in quad one? If the last time I don't think they were in that neighborhood. I mean, they only had six league wins last year. So, yeah, there should be a law, but that's another story for another day.

Evan (59:11)
Yeah. All right, let's... Yes,

if we had it our way, we would make some hard and fast rules. Okay, Indiana. Yeah.

Joseph Lunardi (59:19)
Well, there'd be some kind of floor, some

kind of floor. I don't know what it is, but there would be.

Evan (59:25)
Let's talk Indiana. This is gonna be a divisive team for a lot of people. Right now, if I look at Bracket Matrix, the Bracket Matrix has, according to, again, I'm not roping all these people in and saying that they are as credible as you are, but if you look at the consensus board, Indiana right now has the last spot versus Auburn like we had talked about before. You currently have them as your first team out. They're 18 and 13 right now.

Joseph Lunardi (59:33)
Right?

Yeah.

Evan (59:53)
Their predictive metrics are much better than their resume metrics currently. Their 35th average in predictives last I checked, 52 in resume. Again, we can debate all night long whether they should be in or out. Ultimately, it's gonna come down to how they do in this tournament in the Big 10 this week. So looking at their matchups, they're gonna play the winner of Northwestern and Penn State. Whoever they play in that game, they'll be favored. And then it gets really interesting because they will play Purdue.

Joseph Lunardi (1:00:17)
And then they got Purdue.

Evan (1:00:21)
And my model only would give them a 13 % chance of winning that game. But if they really are on the tournament cut line, they may need to have that one. And then past that, you're looking at Nebraska potentially the winner of Michigan State and UCLA after that. A trend I've seen in general with this team this year, just stylistically is they've struggled a lot to play up to the best competition. They've done better against inferior opponents, but they're the worst team in the Big 10 according to my metrics.

Joseph Lunardi (1:00:32)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Evan (1:00:48)
at playing up to elite competition. So that doesn't bode well for them in their prospects this week, but what do you think they need to get done? ⁓ Their goals should be for this Big Ten tournament in order to get into the field.

Joseph Lunardi (1:01:00)
I think they have to be Purdue. I haven't looked at the Matrix since the weekend, but I knew they were running ahead of Auburn. I mean, I could make an argument for and against either. Neither of them is a tournament team to me from a resume standpoint. And I would

Evan (1:01:11)
We're splitting hairs here. ⁓

Joseph Lunardi (1:01:20)
and have given Auburn the slightest of edges, mostly because of winning at Florida. And ⁓ a better schedule overall. But I think at the end of the day, neither of them makes it. And I think probably an ACC team grabs that spot. Like, like,

Maybe New Mexico wins the Mountain West like they did two years ago to steal the fifth bid among the five because we learned later that even though they were also on the at-large board right along the cut line that they wouldn't have made it without that win over, I guess it was San Diego State, I don't remember. Those Saturday night late games, you know, the older I get, Evan, the more of a blur they become.

Evan (1:02:07)
They're all a blur.

Okay, I want to escape bracketology talk here to end the show because everyone wants to know what you think about these teams resumes. But I also know that you watch college basketball as a fan of the sport and as someone who loves it. And when we get to the tournament, it's not like you're clocking out. You actively are going to be invested in what's going on. So I want to give you the chance to maybe talk on a topic that you're not getting pegged on as much, which is once we get to the actual

bracket and we have it and the tournament's gonna play out, can you name a couple teams for you, and I'll do the same, name a couple teams that you really like in March Madness that you're potentially gonna wanna pick to go far in your bracket or that you just think you're optimistic about their chances of maybe performing better than what would be typical for their seed, things like that. Are there any teams for you that stick out right now that you think have a lot of juice this time of year?

Joseph Lunardi (1:03:05)
So I'm always looking, in a way that's the, hey Joe, do you have any Cinderella's for us question, which I get, you know, planes, trains, and automobiles. And I always say that there's two types. You know, there's the obvious mid-major Cinderella, Sister Jean type, right? Okay, that's category one. I think there's also what I call the damn ballot

Evan (1:03:24)
Sure.

Joseph Lunardi (1:03:33)
major conference team that, you know, is seated outside the top four, the top three. Right. And and, you know, look, if we get the three obvious ones in Florida, a lot of people are going to take all four. And this is as good a year as any to take them all, because at least three of them are historically better than. Then we normally see.

Evan (1:03:40)
Yes. Yeah, this is what I want to get out here.

Joseph Lunardi (1:04:01)
But there are other years where the ones or some of the ones are seemingly invincible and still it's been

over 40 years of this and it's only happened one time. Because winning four high level games, or in the case of the one seed, three high level games in a row, is hard.

And like, we're not talking like the steel curtain, you know, against the Browns here. Like, these are smaller variances. to, you know, you're the expert on all that.

Evan (1:04:39)
Ha ha ha.

Joseph Lunardi (1:04:40)
But, but before the season in the major conference category, I would have said Virginia.

Evan (1:04:49)
Mmm.

Joseph Lunardi (1:04:50)
because I really liked their ads. I had the advantage of seeing two or three of them play at the mid-major level last year. And I think he's a really good coach. And if anybody would appreciate that, it would be people at Virginia. And they certainly lived up to that billing. And I think...

you know, whether they're a four or a five, that's where they're going to fall most likely. If they were an Indy, won an elite game, elite A game would not surprise me. And I feel the same way now about Arkansas. You know, they have a dominant player at the most important position. And. You know, they've got they've got some underachieving.

big time signees who came with Cal from Kentucky who you know you could see that kind of coalescing and being a story in into you know if Arkansas was in an elite a came would anybody be like so so that so I'm gonna I'm going with them in the major category and I'm going to assume for the purposes of wanting to make this point that

Evan (1:05:52)
Not at all.

Joseph Lunardi (1:06:05)
⁓ Robbie Avila, who was banged up at the end of the regular season, either rests or gets healthy through the Atlantic 10 tournament. look, they're analytics darlings, right? St. Louis. Last time I checked, they were second in effective field goal percentage offense and first in effective field goal percentage defense. And again, not my area.

completely, but if a team, every time they take a shot, scores the most points in the country, or in this case, the second most, right? And every time they allow a shot, they give up the least, and it's adjusted for strength of competition, that team really can beat anybody. And having seen them in person several times, I can tell you that they can score from everywhere on the floor willingly.

and they just play a style that's a little bit unique and on the short turnaround of day two of a weekend will be difficult. Like the old John Cheney teams, although a vastly different style, they were death to opponents on the 36-hour turnaround of a weekend. They just were. And more likely to lose to a familiar opponent in their own league sometimes than

Evan (1:07:26)
Yes.

Joseph Lunardi (1:07:27)
an unfamiliar one from elsewhere. Like whenever Cheney would get like, they were like a 10 seed and they would get like a Purdue or I'd be like, ⁓ there's no, Temple's going to win.

Because unfamiliarity breeds contempt, think, in the tournament. ⁓

Evan (1:07:45)
Those are,

I love all three of those picks. ⁓ I, another good one.

Joseph Lunardi (1:07:49)
And I like St. Mary's a little bit too. They're not as

good offensively, but one of these years, their style is going like, you know, they won last year, they beat a good Vanderbilt team. They got Alabama. They were going to get dunked on a lot and they can't beat Alabama. They need a different kind of game. Like they need a Houston or a Michigan state or a Purdue or a, don't, I'd have to think about it some more, but like,

It can't just be like above the rim guys, because then they're not going to They're just not.

Evan (1:08:23)
Yeah, that's another good one too. I literally wrote down three teams as well before we started this and my first two were the first two that you mentioned, Virginia and Arkansas. I love Virginia's front court and I also think that they, yeah, both of us like them so, No, but I really like them and I think what they've been able to do with all of their new pieces, the front court guys they brought in, Chance Mallory has been great as a freshman. I think that they,

Joseph Lunardi (1:08:30)
Wow. Wow. So they're doomed, in other words. They're both doomed.

Evan (1:08:48)
They've been awesome and there's a reason they've lost as few games as they have. And then Arkansas, yeah, one of the most electric offenses in the country, an argument for Darius Acuff being one of the best players in the country this year. So, and then another team I'm looking at too, if I'm picking one outside of those is, I like Ohio State. I think I've been talking about it for about a month. This is a team that is, was supposed to be and has a much stronger roster than the actual results that they put on the table. And they were flirting with the tournament for a while.

Joseph Lunardi (1:08:59)
Agreed.

Mm-hmm.

Evan (1:09:18)
but they've started to put some results together to get them more safely on the right side of the field. And if they're in the tournament, I think as a ⁓ 10 seed, they're in that region, I think they would be a very good, mean, it's obviously gonna be really tough to get past a one seed, but just purely for the sake of a team on that seed line, I'll definitely be eyeing Ohio State for sure.

Joseph Lunardi (1:09:29)
Yeah, they can't be an 8-9 though. And they're probably gonna be.

Mm-hmm.

I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I kind of feel like a little bit of TCU in the Ohio State category. Jamie's not going to get flummoxed by much. Yeah. And I'm a fan of Purple as a rule. Which, as we all know, is a good reason a lot of people pick certain teams.

Evan (1:09:46)
Yeah. Well.

I see that.

Fantastic rule.

Joseph Lunardi (1:10:08)
and kick our butts in bracket pulls. It's irritating, but it's just life. yeah. yeah.

Evan (1:10:10)
Yes, totally, just the colors and the mascots, they mean something to people.

Well, Joe, this was a pleasure. I know that you've got a lot of places to be this week, ⁓ just a little bit. So I'm gonna let you go, but thank you so much for keeping us all informed about Bracket Selection stuff. Your work is so valuable to all of us, has been for decades on at this point. So I really appreciate you taking the time to join me today.

Joseph Lunardi (1:10:20)
Woof.

Well, let me throw it right back at you, Evan. If people haven't been to your site, they should be. I'm a subscriber. I don't get to spend nearly as much time on it during the season as I would like, but I do goof around a good bit during portal season. And ⁓ I'm proud of you and proud of what you've done.

Evan (1:10:58)
Thank you to Joe for joining me on the show today. You guys know Joe Lunardi, Joey Brackets, the founder of Bracketology, and he is really on his gear this week as we prep for Selection Sunday. Be sure to check out and keep track of all of his work on ESPN as he's updating his Brackets daily. He's on ESPN, the network, regularly talking about all the stuff, and then I know that once we get the Brackets out themselves, he'll also have a lot of stuff on ESPN.

on their media platforms breaking down the tournament itself, talking about matchups and things like that. So be sure to go check out all of his work over on ESPN this week and next week.

Evan (1:11:35)
Before we get out of here, I do want to touch on a few other games and notable results from the weekend. Just briefly, I know that we have already had a long show, but there's a few other things I want to touch on that could have implications for March Madness. ⁓ One of the most vexing teams to me that we've been talking about for weeks is Purdue. Purdue loses at home to Wisconsin. And if you pulse checked a bunch of people watching games, Purdue fans, other people following college basketball.

the way Purdue is being talked about, they would say that Purdue isn't even a top 20 team in the sport right now. Not a lot of people would feel comfortable even picking them to the sweet 16. That's kind of what it feels like. And yet if you go to Evanmia.com and other metric sites, they're still a top 10 team. have them eighth right now. So based on the numbers alone, given how they've played this season, there's still a top 10 team that would absolutely put them in the conversation to still be good enough to make a final four.

I find this dichotomy super, super interesting and it is going to be a bit of a test. Like for me personally, I also at this point don't feel like I have the confidence in Purdue to see them as a top eight team in the country, even though that's where my metrics would predict them. So when push comes to shove, what do I actually do with that? I find that very interesting on paper. If there were a team that I think could rebound past some of the losses that they've taken, especially at home to be good. I think it's Purdue.

But I thought they would have turned that corner already and it seems like they haven't. Now the Big 10 tournament will be interesting to see if they can turn a corner. And I think if Purdue were to even win, get to the Big 10 final, ⁓ think that would, a lot of people would hop back on board because they're like, Hey, we can see that the team is still has it to a certain degree. So I, I, I am curious to see how they'll do this week. That will be an interesting to one to watch just how Purdue is handled in these conversations.

around the bracket. Another interesting result with some injury implications, Duke won comfortably over North Carolina over the weekend. The game was only kind of interesting. Duke ended up winning by 15. They were up by even more than that. But the big news is both Caleb Foster and Patrick Congongba were in boots at the end of this game. Patrick Congongba didn't play, Caleb Foster got hurt. And there was a lot of speculation about what the injury impact is for these guys.

My best guess as to this situation based on what I know is that I think Patrick and Gongba will probably be healthy for the NCAA tournament, but Caleb Foster is a lot more of a doubt in the sense of will he be healthy for the first round? If not, will he be healthy for a later round? Right now, if both of those guys are out of the team, Duke's current injury adjusted team rating would drop their game predictions by about 2.2 points. So basically what that means is

If the line were to be Duke minus 15 against the team in the ACC tournament, that would go down to about minus 13. That's the injury impact of those two guys. So not substantial, not enough to move them out of the tier of Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Florida. And even right now that doesn't drop them at all. ⁓ It isn't enough to drop them below Arizona from second to third. But it does still matter to a certain degree. And I think we're gonna see more in the coming days and maybe even the first and second round of the tournament.

if they don't have all those guys back, how that affects them. So, wanted to point that out. Michigan had a great win over the weekend on Sunday against Michigan State at home. Michigan State caps off a incredible Big Ten season with a 19-1 record. Won't spend a lot of time on that game, but guys, Michigan is good. Gaxal-Lundborg was great. 19-1 is ridiculous, so wanted to give them some love there. BYU got a nice win against Texas Tech. Both of these teams are...

Dealing with season-ending injuries to star players, obviously, but nice to see BYU getting that win over Texas Tech and gives me some hope for what they can do in the tournament.

And then last one is Ohio State. I've been talking about them. They went over Indiana at home. Again, not a surprise, but certainly nice to see them have this one because there have been a lot of results for Ohio State this year that they've hoped to have and it hasn't quite come in their favor. They have now comfortably moved inside the tournament picture. And again, it's going to be tough for any eight, nine seed to beat a one as I talked about with Joe Lunardi, but.

As a 9 seed, as a 10 seed, I definitely will be eyeing them. I think they would likely be a favorite against whatever team they would play in those games, at least according to my game prediction. So that's a team that I will certainly be wanting to pick to win at least a game, if not two in the tournament, if things break right for them there. Last thing I will say before we close the show is we have four 1 seeds in March Madness in Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and likely Florida.

who have all completed conference titles, regular season titles in their conferences with room to spare have been absolutely dominant down the stretch. And I do not think any of these teams necessarily needs to win their conference tournament in order to really impact their one seed chances hardly at all, certainly for Michigan Duke and Arizona. So I'm gonna make a prediction right now that I think only two of these teams will win their conference tournaments.

That at least two of these teams if not more will come up short and not win their conference tournaments I don't think that impacts them at all for March, but I think that they have already accomplished a lot this season They're looking towards the tournament looking forward towards making a final for winning a national title wouldn't surprise me if they slip up a little bit concentration wise and They play in good conferences. So there's a lot of other good teams who can beat them Wouldn't surprise me if some of these teams have an extra loss added to the loss column

as we get to Selection Sunday, but don't think that will impact things really for their seeding hardly at all, especially for those top three teams, as I mentioned. So just wanted to put that prediction out there. We will see how that fares.

Evan (1:17:36)
Well guys, that is a wrap for our show today. I hope you enjoyed it. Next Tuesday will be our full bracket analysis preview show. I've got four great guests going me to go region by region, as well as a lot of other analytically driven insights that I will be covering to help you guys be covered for filling out your brackets next week. I cannot wait for that. ⁓ As always, this is an ad free show. Please give us a five star review on Apple or Spotify. That really helps drive people.

to the podcast and the show as we are in the best month of the year and more people are looking for that sort of thing. So please support the show and I try and read out reviews when I can. I'll read one from Spotify this week. Bryce Smith last week said, maybe my favorite episode yet in what has become a weekly must listen this winter chemistry with LaTulip was fantastic and shout out the Vandy Love keep up the great work, Evan. Thank you, Bryce, for your comment. That sort of feedback really means a lot to me. It really helps me grow the.

or shape the way that the show is going, because I want it to be great for you guys. So I really appreciate that. Please give us five star reviews on Apple or Spotify if you listen on this podcast platforms, or if you're watching on YouTube, subscribe to the channel on YouTube. And we will be back next Tuesday with a loaded show. Thank you so much for listening. It truly means a lot to me. And I will all see all of you guys next time with a bracket in our hands. Cannot wait.